If you are looking for trading (in and out), and you want to trade this counter share, I suggest to trade their warrant. If you have spare cash, then perhaps you can keep this counter mother share. Looking at the trend, the support level has been around 1.18 to 1.20. I believe funds have entered around that range hence the price has been on quite a solid footing.
Typically, if funds come in, they normally won't trade within the first few hours. Because retail investors follow the green and red colour. Panic sell or panic buy. If you look at the trend over the last few days, the price movement came before the lunch break. I believe yesterday afternoon surge maybe due to retail investor chasing and today drop due to profit taking, huge sell volume this morning at 1.34.
This is not a buy or sell call. Everyone has their own investment strategies, so long invest within their own means and do their own research on the counter they want to invest in.
Looking at the volume over the last 2 days, reached about 6.7mil. On average, revenue mother shares reached approximately 1 - 1.5mil daily volume. So over the last two days, someone would have buy in close to 4mil shares.
Funds may have already position themselves and done with whatever they want to take up and no further addition. If today price continue at 1.30 range, there is a possibilty they may add on, but may not be at 1.34 range.
Long term investor. Your definition of long term must be go by trading session. If you really are a long term investor of revenue, you would have by now know how thiw counter behave and know when to enter and out.
Any savy long term investor, who believe this counter will go higher, would have trade warrants to keep.
It's their corporate finance plan. This is common. It's not a situation of continuous disposal due to poor prospects. You need to be able to differentiate that. Also it's not massive disposals.
It also doesn't mean that directors buying their company shares necessarily mean that the company is good.... sometimes they just want to impress investors.
Corporate finance means, before listing, new shares are issued to existing shareholders so as to beef up the capital structure in compliance with Bursa requirements. They need to finance this, usually through their investment bankers. After listing, the will sell some shares to repay the loan. It's got nothing to do with the company's performance.
If you read their prospectus, the 3 promoters hold 65.2% (145,408,320 shares) of the issued shares. And they are subjected to moratorium of at least 45% up till second 6-months moratorium (should be up till July 2019), in another words, they actually have close to 20% (or 40 millions) of shares that they can dispose off at anytime.
Looking at the last few months, the 3 promoters only sold about 1.5 million mother shares, and collectively sold about 22 million of warrants (i think the warrants also subject to moratorium). They are still holding more than 63%-64% of the mother shares.
With their mother shares and free warrants, logically speaking from the promoter point of view, they should have sold their mother shares and bring down their shareholding percentage to about 51% and keep the warrants. This slightly defy the norm that I would see in any corporate strategy that a listed co with warrants will undertake to maximise returns for the promoters. Different company and management will have different strategies. So perhaps they have a specific reason why they execute in such a way, perhaps taking into consideration of transferring to mainboard.
The price since IPO to todate, it would give them a huge return, but they didn't sell the mother shares and choose to cash in on the warrants. To the directors, their shares are from IPO time, means it is RM0.37, another RM0.10 increase not going to give them much more at the price hovering at RM1.20 to RM1.30 range for few months.
As for disposal done by other directors, most likely they are selling and cashing in from their IPO share. The directors pledged their IPO shares (from annual report top 30 shareholders), so they may be selling and repay the loan.
I agreed that directors selling/buying will send some signal to the market and it is up to the retail market to interpret. Looking from the number of mother shares that they still holding, that shouldn't be a worrying sign at this point in time.
Directors selling shouldn't be the only factor in determining whether you should invest in this counter. The industry, growth prospect, management team, business strategies, competitive advantage all plays a key part in investment decision.
I would love to hear more from the so-called technical analysis, this company had one of the most unpredictable technical trend, how many research house has given their TA and manage to hit it?
This is not a trading counter in my opinion, it is better to treat this as a long term investment counter. You really can’t get hold of when this counter will move, it has been hovering at the range to RM1.20 - RM1.25 for few months then suddenly move up over the last few weeks.
Im not sure TA would give any indication by based on historical movement, prior to Q result (apply to majority of the listed counters), this counter will move uptrend and after Q result, immediately drop. Have been like this since IPO.
I just share my own thoughts and the research i done.
Personally, i feel i only have a limited timeframe to be able to collect this counter share. Once they transfer to the mainboard, where big funds will come in and thereafter the liquidity will be limited. Of course limited liquidity also has another set of game play, just like how ghl behave nowadays. 10k to 100k volume and price movement can be like 3-5c upwards, then drop back.
To be honest, the promoters don’t sell their mother shares or warrants actually in a way doesn’t benefits the retail investor (who is taking a long term position). Right now only the promoters have the volume of shares that can release to the market. So retail investors are fighting for the existing public floats and also have to fight with those funds house. Demand is more than supply.
Some may argue then the price will become lower with more shares, but as a long term investor, the key concern now will be there is not enough shares to purchase. Can only buy at higher price. That is my view.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Moc Nokin
222 posts
Posted by Moc Nokin > 2019-04-17 09:10 | Report Abuse
Drop from 1.34 to 1.33