Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:39 | Report Abuse

4. Simple can be better than smart.
Someone who bought a low-cost S&P 500 index fund in 2003 and left it alone earned a 97% return by the end of 2012. That's great! And they could have spent the last 10 years at the beach, or hanging out with their kids.

Meanwhile, the average fancy professional market-neutral hedge fund -- many of which are staffed with PhDs and some of the world's fastest computers -- lost 4.7% over the same period, according to data from Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Indices. The average stock-trading equity hedge fund produced a 96% total return -- still short of a simple index fund.
There are no points awarded for difficulty in investing. Smart people who devote their entire lives to investing can (and often do) fail, while some of the simplest investing techniques you can think of are wildly successful. Good businesses run by good people purchased at good prices held for as long as possible. That's it.

5. The odds of experiencing stock market volatility are exactly 100%.
Most investors understand that stocks produce superior long-term returns, but at the cost of higher volatility. Yet every time there's even a whiff of volatility in the stock market, the same cry is heard from investors around the world: "What the heck is going on?!"

The majority of the time, the honest and correct answer is the same: Nothing is going on. This is normal and just what stocks do.
Since 1900 the S&P 500 has returned about 6% per year, but the average difference between any year's highest close and lowest close is 23%. Volatility, even really severe swings, is perfectly normal and shouldn't be feared.

Accepting market volatility as normal and focusing on the businesses I own is a lesson I've learned from Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner. David is one of the brightest investors I know, and has one of the best track records in the industry. His ability to remain steadfast in the face of market volatility is astounding. David's service, Supernova, is about to open to new investors for the first time in months.

As we head into 2014, one of the best things you can do to improve your experience as an investor is remind yourself that investing may not be easy, but it's not difficult or complicated. Professional investors and * make it seem complicated because they think of it like medicine, complex and dependent on detailed knowledge. It's not.

This isn't brain surgery. All we're doing is spending less than we earn, saving the difference, investing it, and waiting.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:41 | Report Abuse

Buy-and-hold is dead

One week the market is up, the next week the market is down, but at all times, serious issues overhang our global economy. The strength in the market is usually spurred by hopes that governments will come to the rescue, but nowhere does real growth exist. With the almost insane demand for “no-return” Treasury Bonds TLT+0.25% , one might even argue that the Smart Money has changed its stripes. They seem to have just parked their money to forget about it. That, however, is equally dangerous because one day in the not-too-distant future, the perceived safe haven in U.S. Treasury bonds is also going to change.

The only way to make money in the equity market is to be nimble, and that means adopting a strategy that is not buy and hold. In fact, I will go so far as to say that anyone who adopts a buy-and-hold strategy right now, when the S&P is near 1369, will not be made whole for more than three years. The market could increase a little beyond that now, but this is me calling a relative top.

The above prediction assumes an ongoing investment return equal to the market. One-off stocks will surely beat the market, and even when the market collapses some stocks increase, so my references are to investment vehicles that are diversified amongst large-cap equities like traditional money managers do. If you are holding a mutual fund or managed account and hoping that the market will continue to increase to provide a return, I believe that your approach must change.

Call your broker immediately and tell him you want to move to cash. He will argue with you, he will tell you that you need to stay the course, but that is because they need you to stay invested in order for them to make money. They are a fee-based business, and if you are in cash, no fees are realized (unless you are in a wrap program). Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs all offer managed accounts with top money managers, but the traditional approach has not worked for years and it will not work for years.

If nothing more, a twist on the traditional needs to be made, but that can only be made by us, the investor. Because the traditional houses rely on traditional buy-and-hold management styles primarily, they tell clients to stay invested through thick and thin so they can generate fees even when it will be better for their clients to move to cash and wait for the market to capitulate again. There is the twist.

If you are a traditional investor and refuse to adapt to the market as I have suggested in the past, all you need to do is revert to cash now, wait for the market to get ugly again (give it a few months), and then come back when everyone else is panicking. It really is that easy, and the market is giving you yet another opportunity to make a prudent decision to sell at a relative high right now (it has done this twice this year already). This may be the last time, and it may even be a lower high.

If you are interested in making money, you can be more nimble, because with the big weekly moves in the market, plenty of money is there to be made as well. Last week we shorted Bed Bath and Beyond BBBY-0.67% for a 2.2% gain, for example, and may have a conditional long on another stock this week. These types of trades are within a strategy called "Stock of the Week" that I have offered through MarketWatch before, but you do not need to be active in order to protect yourself.

The point of this article is to open the eyes of those who do not already see. Two simple truths exist: The risks are high, and the market is at a relative high. You do not need to be an institutional investor, or part of the Smart Money to know what to do.

RAIDER COMMENT

THIS INVESTMENT METHOD ARE ADOPTED BY MOST OF RAIDER'S INFLUNCTIAL FRIEND LIKE KUDA QUEK.....!!
WHY LEH ?

BCOS THEY THINK......THE MARKET IS A NEGATIVE SUM GAME.
THE MARKET IS HERE TO CON YOUR MONIES OVER LONG TERM.
YES....IT IS TRUE LOH......!!

IF YOUR INVESTMENT ATTITUDE AND TECH IS OUT.
U R NOT DISCIPLINE AND PATIENT TO INVEST BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL VALUE AND MARGIN OF SAFETY...!!

ALTHOUGH KUDA QUEK.....IS A GOOD FRIEND OF RAIDER......BUT STILL HIS INVESTMENT TECH....OF QUICK HIT N RUN WILL NOT GOING TO HELP HIM TO MAKE BIG SUSTAINABLE MONIES OVER LONG RUN LOH.

BY TRADING ON INSIDER NEWS, VERY INFORMED INFO AND GETTING QUICK IN & OUT SWING WILL CREATE BIG EXCITEMENT....WITH BIG ONE TIME TRADING PROFIT IF SUCCESSFUL....BUT IT IS NOT GOING TO HELP HIM IN LONG RUN.....DURING THE LEAN PERIOD.....WHEN THERE IS LESS EXCITEMENT MAH..!

RAIDER ADVISE TO KUDA.....IS GET BACK TO BASIC....BUY MARGIN OF SAFETY, PROFITABLE DIVIDEND STOCK AND OCASSIONALLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF INSIDER AND INFORMED NEWS WHEN IT COMES.....BY DOING THAT.....BENEFIT ON BEST OF BOTH WORLD LOH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:43 | Report Abuse

U NEED TO UNDERSTAND NARKET DECLINE & HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.......!!

No plan can protect you against a loss in market value during declining stock markets.
A critical feature of the plan is that you have both the cash and the courage to continue to invest during bear markets as regularly as you do in better periods.

No matter how pessimistic you are (and everybody else is), and no matter how bad the financial and world news is, you must not interrupt the automatic pilot nature of the plan or you will lose the important benefit of ensuring that you buy at least some of your shares after a sharp market decline.

If you can buy a few extra shares whenever the market declines by 20 to 25%, your dollar-cost averaging will work even better.

The worst thing you could do is to sell out after the market declines.

RAIDER COMMENT,

IF U BUY INTO STOCK......NO MATTER HOW SOUND IS YOUR PURCHASE.....U R BOUND TO EXPERIENCE THE VOLATILITY LOH.....SOMETIME IT WILL HIT U WITH LOSSES......BUT SOMETIME IS A FAVORABLE GAIN TOO MAH......!!

U MUST PREPARE FOR DECLINE TOO.....!!
STOCK IN SHORT TERM IS A VOTING MACHINE (THAT MEANS IN DEPEND ON SUPPLY & DEMAND).....IN LONG RUN IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE (WHICH MEAN IT DEPEND ON STOCK VALUATION OR INTRINSIC VALUE )

SO IF U PREPARE FOR SHORT TERM MARKET FLUCTUATION, THEN AS A VALUE INVESTOR U HAVE NOTHING MUCH TO FEAR.
JUST MAKE A SOUND MARGIN OF SAFETY PURCHASE AT A HUGE DISCOUNT & HOLD TIGHT....NO MATTER WHAT TYPE OF MARKET.....IF THE MARKET & STOCK DROP ALOT....DON WORRY BUY MORE.....IS RAIDER ADVISE TO U LOH......!!
OF COURSE U MUST DO.....THROUGH DUE DILIGENCE AND VALUATION.....B4 U CAN STAND FIRM AND HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO AGAINST THE MARKET.

ALWAYS HAVE THIS IDEA LOH......FOR BUYING DECISION LOH......U BUY SOMETHING VALUE.....FOR RM 1.00.....AT A MUCH CHEAPER PRICE LIKE RM 0.35 MAH........!!
IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL U MUST TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET LOH.......!!
AN INVESTOR HAVE AN ADVANTAGE OVER MR MARKET BASED ON THE FOLLOWING ;

1) HE CAN DO A RATIONAL VALUATION ON STOCK PURCHASE OR SOLD WITHOUT BEING INFLUENCE BY MARKET SENTIMENT.
2) HE HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF TIME AND PATIENCE ON HIS SIDE LOH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:49 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:49 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:50 | Report Abuse

THE ISSUE OF TRUST AND INTEGRITY IN INVESTMENT, TRADING & SPECULATION.....!!

ALL THE WHILE RAIDER HAD BEEN EMPHASISING MARGIN OF SAFETY....MARGIN OF SAFETY......!!...HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER VERY IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF INVESTMENT CALL "THE ISSUE OF TRUST & INTEGRITY"....WHICH IS VERY IMPORTANT AS IMPORTANT AS MARGIN OF SAFETY......!!

RAIDER LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT TO U ALL.....IF U LOOK INTO ALL THE CHINA STOCK LISTED IN MSIA....ALL HAVE VERY HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY.....!! WHY INVESTOR SHUNNED IT ?

THE ANSWER.....IF U DOUBT.....THE INTEGRITY.....NO MATTER HOW MUCH UNDERVALUE.....IT IS NO NO LOH...!!

TRUST AND INTEGRITY IS ANOTHER CENTRAL CORE OF VALUE INVESTMENT LOH.....!!
IT IS THE QUALITATIVE ASPECT......THAT IS UNDER EMPHASIS LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:55 | Report Abuse

HEADLINE.....IF U BELIEVE IN MARGIN OF SAFETY......IT IS ALWAYS PRICE V VALUATION......NOTICE MARGIN OF SAFETY MAKE NO DISTINCTION BETWEEN QUALITY OF STOCK......IT IS ALWAYS PRICE.....PRICE.....PRICE V VALUATION......THAT MEAN THE CHEAPER THE PRICE AGAINST VALUE......THE BIGGER THE DISCOUNT........THE BIGGER THE VALUATION.....THE SAFER & BETTER THE PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY MAH.......!!

IF U HOLD......TO THIS CONCEPT MARGIN OF SAFETY......THERE ARE PLENTY.....PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR U LOH....!!

Investsmart comment,

Hopefully, you won't have to find out the hard way - QUALITY first, then PRICE. When in doubt, throw it out!

The most important task is in investing into a company is in assessing its quality.

Hopefully you won't have to find out the hard way that buying a good company for too high a price is still better than buying a poor company - even at what you may think is a bargain price.

No matter how low it may be, a company that doesn't meet the quality requirements will always be too expensive - at any price!

If you are not critical enough about quality, you can easily be seduced into believing that a stock is a bargain when you actually shouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Here is a statement you may have to think about a little: The worse a company performs, the better a value it will appear to be. Why do you suppose that is?

If you ignore the poor operational performance and just look at the price, you'll be in the market for someone else's mistake!

Sure, you will be able to pick up the stock at bargain-basement prices - but for a good reason.

You will think you made out like a bandit when, in fact, whomever you bought the stock from will turn out to be the lucky one.

The most important point here is that you simply cannot afford to ignore the quality issues or treat them lightly. [/u]

Unless the company completely satisfies your quality requirements - and I don't mean it's marginal or might have some problem - your evaluation of the price of the stock can be invalid and, in fact, hazardous to your financial health.

When in doubt, throw it out!


Raider comment,

Investsmart comment is not wrong mah......if u chose to specialize loh.......!!
If u chose to specialize be a " PANDA"......eating only bamboo......alone......and profitable too, go ahead loh....!!

But in the investment world there have plenty opportunity mah.......u don have to be a " Panda Only Loh" !!

The margin of safety advocated by Ben Graham is " universal".......opportunities are available for all type of stocks...bluechips, secondary, penny, distress, takeover, growth etc mah.......!!

The basic concept of Margin of safety is always ask " What is the PRICE V VALUE ? HOW LARGE is the discount to price U pay ? Worth it to buy at that Price or not ? "
Notice the key element in investment.....is " Price".......if your purchase price is "Right......anything go with it is right too...!!"
U are entering the world of consistent profit......using margin of safety mah......!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 01:01 | Report Abuse

« Reply #7662 on: January 12, 2014, 10:46:31 AM »
Reply with quoteQuote


Psychology Edge Of Trading Fear
Fear, Feelings of Inadequacy - Lack of Courage or Self-Confidence

Fear is prob­a­bly the most sig­nif­i­cant emo­tion for traders. Many traders strug­gle with this emo­tion and fear can demo­bi­lize you from apply­ing your hard learned tech­ni­cal skills. Sig­nif­i­cant trad­ing losses often lead to emo­tional dis­tress and tur­moil. Unless addressed, the trader may re-experience those painful mem­o­ries in future trades. IN TRADING U ALWAYS EXPERIENCE THE EMOTIONAL CHALLENGES OF FEAR & GREED LOH.....!!

Fol­low­ing anguish­ing losses, a trader may become par­a­lyzed and unable to enter the trade or act in other fear-based ways. After all, traders are human and nat­u­rally fear that which causes pain. Although the desire to trade may be strong, the men­tal response to fear can be stronger. Antic­i­pated pain is side­stepped by not pulling the trig­ger. This is not a sign of weak­ness. It is merely the mind’s attempt at self-protection, though it causes much frus­tra­tion and dis­tress, and works against our inter­ests as traders.CORRECTLOH........SOME SIFU ADVOCATE.....TO TAKE A REST OF 1-3 MTHS AFTER STRING OF 4 LOSSES LOH....!!

In day trading, the main fear a trader has is that they are going to make a losing trade and lose money. This is a rational fear as no trader wants to lose money, but it is irrational if it prevents the trader from taking any trades in the first place. As an example, a trader might make a losing trade, and then be too fearful to make the next trade, which of course turns out to be a winning trade, and would have covered the previous loss. FORGET IT.....DON WASTE TIME WITH DAY TRADING...!!
U MUST MAKE USE OF THE STRENGTH OF TRADING IN OTHER TO BE SUCCESSFUL LOH....!! THAT IS MAXIMISE YOUR GAINS & LIMIT YOUR LOSSES MAH......!!
THIS MEAN SIT ON YOUR GAIN & CUT YOUR LOSSES QUICK WHICH DAY TRADING MODEL USUALLY FAIL TO DELIVER MAH.!

By letting the fear take control, the trader now has a net loss, even though a winning trade was available. The emotion of fear can be overcome by acknowledging that all day traders have losing trades occasionally, but as long as they are less frequent than the winning trades, there is nothing to be afraid of as there will still be a net profit...FREQUENCY OF WINNING IS NOT AS IMPORTANT COMPARE TO THE SIZE OF THE WINNING LOH......!!

When suf­fer­ing from fear, you may
i) Cut win­ners short in fear of giv­ing prof­its back . THIS IS A WRONG STRATEGY
ii) Hes­i­tate in pulling the trig­ger because you fear the prospects of a loss. IF U R PREPARE TO FACE SMALL CONTROL LOSSES..U NO FEAR MAH.....!! BCOS SMALL LOSSES IS ONE OF YOUR BUSINESS MODEL OF MAKING MONIES..!
iii) Hang on to los­ing trades because you fear tak­ing the loss...U BETTER DON BE A TRADER...IF U HAVE THIS TENDENCY
iv) Jump into unplanned trades because you fear leav­ing money on the table...AGAIN THIS IS BAD APPROACH....ALWAYS STUDY THE STOCK B4 JUMP IN MAH.....!!

There are many types of fear that can plague traders
i) The fear of missing a trade...MAKE IT A POINT TO STUDY THE STOCK & ITS BEHAVIOR
ii) The fear of losing money....SET CUT LIMITS
iii) The fear of being wrong....SET CUT LIMITS
iv) The fear of losing face with peers...BETTER DON TALK TO YOUR PEERS ABOUT YOUR POSITION
v) The fear of criticism....BETTER DON TALK ABOUT YOUR POSITION....BUT ALWAYS STUDY & ANALYSE WHAT U DONE RIGHT & WRONG ON YOUR PAST & PRESENT TRADE.....TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING SKILL GOING FWD


There are more than just the ones shown above. What can you do about fear? What steps can you take to overcome it?

The possible causes of anxiety and fear are many: conflict, health problems, dangerous situations, death, unmet needs, spiritual problems, false beliefs, lack of self-confidence, lack of faith in the way you have chosen to trade, etc.; but for traders, it is the action of price movement that brings about the greatest amount of anxiety and fear. YES PLAY ON A SET OF TRADING SYSTEM LOH......INSTEAD OF WHIM & FANCY MAH.....!!

We need to create a consistent routine that will enable us to execute our trades according to plan, and without hesitation even after experiencing a string of losing trades. Trading is a business of following rules.
How do you manage your Personal Risk? Below are the 10 points I feel it is important!

Planning. I believe the most important single factor in eliminating fear in trading is for a trader to define and operate from a well-thought out trading plan. If you are not following your plan or if you don’t have one you will experience the horrors of the market the end result of which will be fear. IN PLANNING U NEED TO ANALYSE THE RISK V REWARD LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 01:03 | Report Abuse

Trade With a Clear Mind. Do not make emotional decisions. Realize that emotions are emotions. What differentiates the successful traders from others is how we recalibrate our reactions to our emotions..WHAT IS MEAN IS BE RATIONAL WITH YOUR TRADE LOH.....!!

I was watching an interview with a surfer. The interviewer asked him what he does when a big surf comes and he goes underwater. The surfer said it was simple. “If I panic, I only have 3-5 seconds of air to breathe. If I stay calm, I have 45-60 seconds of air.“....IF U HAVE A SYSTEM....UNTIL & UNLESS IT IS TRIGGERED......THEN ONLY LARI KUAT KUAT MAH...!!

What does surfing have to do with trading? If you panic and operate from a place of fear, you could lose all of your capital. However, if you take a moment and think about your strategies, you can have much better results...U DON WASTE TIME THINKING IN CRISIS....U RELY ON YOUR TRADING PLAN OR YOUR TRADING MODEL.....SO THAT U ACT RATIONAL WHEN CRISIS HIT......!!

Limit Your Input. There are a lot of conflicting points of view. If we want to listen to all of them, it becomes very confusing, and the confused mind does not make a decision. Instead of listening to everybody, pick the top 3 people that you respect and listen to them. This way, you can remain focused and have much better trading results. DON WASTE TIME LISTEN TO MANY MANY PEOPLE.....U PICK 3 SUCCESSFUL SIFU....U ADMIRE MOST.....AND MODIFY ADOPT THEIR BEST TECH INTO YOUR TRADING SYSTEM LOH....!! ALSO ALWAYS LEARN THEIR PHILOSOPHY TOO....!!

Be In Tune With the Markets. Trade the markets as they are and not as you want them to be.
If we are not in tune with the markets and don’t listen to them, we are going to be in a losing game. After all, hope is a lousy hedge....YES DON FORCE THE MARKET TO GIVE U WHAT U WANT...!! FEEL THE TRADE DIRECTION & FLOW....!!
MARKET WILL REWARD U ....IF U GO IN LINE....!! THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.....!!

Quick exits when wrong. You should have a clear idea in mind of what you expect from price action upon entry into a trade. If you don’t soon see what you were anticipating exit the trade. Never trade when there is any doubt in your mind.
YES BE PREPARE TO CABUT QUICKLY....WHEN THINGS DON WORK OUT.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 01:05 |

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Posted by nicholasnwh90 > 2014-04-24 01:07 | Report Abuse

Raider u can publish a book already loh!!! Cant finish reading all your posts today liao. Continue tmr! Night!!!

Posted by jenabchen123 > 2014-04-24 01:08 | Report Abuse

I loike this forum! Hidup Raider!

Posted by swee_on > 2014-04-24 08:16 | Report Abuse

Raider, thanks for sharing.

Posted by leno > 2014-04-24 08:24 | Report Abuse

darn ! why this bugger raider keep stalking leno to everi forum leno go. Must get court order to restraint Raider ... later another chow cabai iinvest will come and run in circle with his blue chip counters promotion again. HOly GOAT ... WHY ARE U SO CRUEL TO LENO !!!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-24 09:41 | Report Abuse

Morning

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 09:51 | Report Abuse

Leno is like those jokers....in the movies....who normally don like to contribute anything....but close to end....he will turn up, just in time & claim credits loh.....!!
This exactly like the movies mah....!!

Posted by talkking > 2014-04-24 10:00 | Report Abuse

ya betul..leno is tin kosong...noisy bising2 onli hari2 365 1 tahun....hebat

Posted by leno > 2014-04-24 10:02 | Report Abuse

This is called ... EFFECTIVE & EFFICIENT mar ! WASEH ! leno just calculate leno 5 years performance .... a WHOPPING 39.6% p.a. !!! All this come from minimal work. If can maintain for another 5 years can claim Lynch title lor.

ps : leno's quote in pre-U school annual book motto was "Batman and Joker" WHY leh ? Because Batman greatness because the presence of JOKER mar ... no JOKER ... BATMAN is nothin lor. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA ...

Posted by leno > 2014-04-24 10:12 | Report Abuse

ops ... just in case ppl mis-inteprete ... Leno wan to put this formally on the record ya .. that .... Leno is .... the BATMAN.

Posted by youlee > 2014-04-24 11:04 | Report Abuse

Here, ppl like momentum play and elliot waves TA, not performance result.

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-24 11:30 | Report Abuse

Hey Sifu Raider,

I just go through CLIQ's accounts, do they even have enough cash to return their shareholders 0.675 per share if acquisition failed?

Also....any comment on FACBIND? hehe margin of safety on its net cash?

Posted by leno > 2014-04-24 12:28 | Report Abuse

youlee : here we have different group of idealogies of people ... there are traders, FA , TA , fusion , ecclectic, value, growth, warrant, punters and blah blah blah, No one is in WRONG. Raider is in Value group ... of course lah he will say all the good about value. Occasionally may accidentally critise other group. I repeat "accidentally". So dun take heart. IF u believe in momentum or elliot, then do continue argue within your circle of group. And of course elliot follower occasionally critisive FA or other TA groups ... but as long as each members do it in their own group .. it should be tolerated and read with open heart. Inclusion of raider into our forum will add more colours. But let's pray that psychotic Blue chip fellow dun come into this forum ... AMEN ....

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-04-24 12:32 | Report Abuse

VERY GOOD,

I SUPPORT GREAT RAIDER & 5 STAR GENERAL LENO. No Psychotic Blue Chip fellow please.

Posted by talkking > 2014-04-24 13:00 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 20:09 | Report Abuse

Wonder,

R U the "Wonder"....A friend of raider in investlah ?

CLIQ...monies....is in the EScrow account very secured

The SPAC share....of Cliq....is recorded as liablilities....not as an equity....!!

Anyway....SPAC account....is quite complicated...!!

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-24 22:08 | Report Abuse

Yes raider, its from investlah but i have stopped visiting investlah unless sometime just to see your latest picks!

For CLIQ, i think base on the short term deposit(comparable to their 90% obligation under liabilities) they have, they cannot refund the shareholders upto 0.67 per shares. Somemore not considering when warrant holder excersie at 0.50 per shares.

What about FACBIND raider? whats your comment on it

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 23:16 | Report Abuse

Wonder,

U r mistaken....based on raider computation....cash already Rm 0.675....btw warrant holder not entitle to this escrow account.
CLIQ holder entitle for interest as well on....top of principal...!!

Without QA....warrant holder cannot convert to CLIQ also....!!

FACB....tell...raider why it is so good....n raider will verify whether it is really napshot loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 23:35 |

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Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 23:46 | Report Abuse

Updown Comment

As you said before, there was a risk it would trade undervalue for long long time. How to invest for long term? The management may prefer to sit there and do nothing with plenty of cash or land. koyang kaki very syok. Earning handsome director fees & enjoying perks every year. Why they want to returns those assets it to minority? Unless they have some plan to generate bigger returns from privatization each round ie, list and delist.

Raider's Comment,

Raider has the solution loh......!!
1) Accept the above the risk is part of the investment model.....therefore diversify buy as many varieties as possible loh.....!!
2) Just continue to monitor & only jump in the stock start moving loh.....!!
3) Be more selective the type of company u buy like....to include additional selection criteria of good management who take care of shareholder loh....!!
Pls take note....no matter what u do.....there is a tradeoff mah......!!
Like raider napshot 40 beat....3i stock list this yr......bcos raider selection criteria is wider and has better discount loh whereas 3i list has better management but less discount loh....!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 23:54 | Report Abuse

Updown Comment,

I would take it as short term trade. Buy at the price below reasonable level and sell it after reaching its net cash level ie LCTH & PMCORP. No point keeping for longer term. This kind of kiamsiap boss is only cared of their own pocket. They don't care whether the minority want the money in term of dividend for surviving. No mater how you query or scold them in the AGM, they are still the same cause of their mentality. Never expect them to change according to the kind what we want.


Raider Comment,

THE ABOVE FINDINGS BY UPDOWN ARE PARTIALLY TRUE LOH.....!!
YES example..U BUY INTO PMCORP & LCTH WITH VERY BIG MARGIN OF SAFETY LIKE SOMETHING BETWEEN RM 0.08 TO RM 0.16...WHERE THE CASH HOLDING IS MORE THAN THE SHARE PRICE LOH......!!
IN ADDITION THE NTA IS 3 TO 5 TIME MORE THAN THE SHARE PRICE TOO..A CRITERIA MUCH STRICTER THAN BEN GRAHAM Selection MAH........!!!
WHEN THE SHARE PRICE APPRECIATE....TO 2X TO 2.5X level of BOOK VALUE.....U ALREADY DISPOSE A GOOD PORTION OF YOUR HOLDING LOH......!!

NOW AT 2X TO 2.5X BELOW NTA U WILL NEED TO ASK YOURSELF....SHOULD U DISPOSE THE BALANCE of the share ? KNOWING....THAT THE NTA DISCOUNT STILL FULFIL THE CRITERIA OF BEN GRAHAM MARGIN OF SAFETY MEASUREMENT & THESE COMPANIES ARE STILL SUBSTANTIALLY CASH RICH TOO LOH......!!
FURTHERMORE.....U ALREADY MAKE CLOSE TO 50% TO 150% RETURN MAH.....!!

RAIDER THINK STRATEGICALLY .....U SHOULD FIGHT & CUT WHEN ITs momentum DROP loh...!!

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-24 23:59 | Report Abuse

CLIQ- Isnt it 357mil cash divide by 630mil shares issued (=0.56)?

FACBIND - Net cash per share of around RM1.77 as margin of safety(30% below Net cash), Dividend paying and profitable remaining business.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 00:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 00:14 | Report Abuse

A WRITE UP BY DALI.....!!

Investors are concerned about insider trading ... about somebody knowing something ahead of time ... I guess all market participants do that, we dress it up as "rumours". If you are not sure, then they stay as rumours. If your sources are certain, then its an advantage. If you hear it directly then its possible to be getting insider information. If you are the 4th or 5th indirect recipient, e.g. from your remisiers, dealers, friends ... that would be harder to prosecute.

Other than the usual direct insider information, a lot of market participants esp on the trading desks, portfolio managers, investment banking community ... they get what is known as "order flow". It's their obscene profit advantage, called "Order Flow."

You're probably playing the investment game. They're playing the players, including you. But you're a small frog; they are much more interested in the big croakers. Those are the big-money funds, the state funds, hedge funds, pension funds, indexed linked funds, and anything else that scoops up the available capital of folks who don't know (or don't want to know) how to really make it work for them.

They're not dishonest, just astute business managers. But that puts you (and their customers) in at least 3rd place in the pecking order of the Investment Markets Game. When you are managing a large position, it is to your advantage as analysts will tell you of "upcoming surprises" of your holdings. Or you are a BSD, you will get first hand information of upcoming positive developments as you will buy big.

The investment markets, most of the time, are driven by so much advancing-knowledge-driven productivity from today's civilized world that there are plenty of crumbs falling off the table to keep poorly-informed folks with more income than they know what to do with (constructively), satisfied. If you're one of those, better find something more entertaining to read or pass the time with, because the rest of this article may be disturbing to you.

So I say, this is just one section of the market place and how anyone can say that the markets are efficient is beyond me. Because somebody somewhere will always know something ahead of you ... you just hope and pray you are not the last 25%.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 00:28 | Report Abuse

What's this "obscene profit" advantage?
Back to that thing called "order flow." The orders in the flow of interest to them are the volume ones, in millions of shares, called blocks.
Many big-fund holdings are in stocks that, at the level of the market's average daily trading volume would take weeks or months to exit from, and then to reinvest. Guess which way prices would move if they tried to do it that way.

So they try to split up their portfolio adjustment actions into smaller increments, and spread them around, into off-market "dark pools," into private deal arrangements with other croakers, and into anonymous offerings by MMs via the MMs' block trade desks.

That's where "order flow" intelligences come from. The market-making community has informal club rules that require keeping the trade order originator's identity secret, along with the precise size of his order, and a sense of its urgency of completion. But within the community of MMs, everyone knows who owns how much of everything that is either "in play" or likely to get that way. Big orders tend to get pretty well known and defined. The game gets very sophisticated as a result. High-fee investment information services have good businesses keeping on top of this shifting ownership scene and servicing their MM clients with updates.

The MMs have to try to keep a step ahead of their croaker clients, who in turn, have an obligation to their capital-investing clients to quickly get them out of situations turning sour. Even if it means "bagging" the MM at a high price before the MM learns what the fund has found out, by whatever means (in either case).

It may all look so simple, coming off a Bloomberg quote terminal. But the very serious game going on behind that screen can (and does) often make millions of dollars a minute in the pockets of MMs or croakers and their clients. Price-percentage wise, it can make similar differences to your involved capital, as an "innocent" bystander.

For example, TNB's recent huge uptick. It would have been great to be able to map out the buyers and quantum for the 2-4 weeks before the rate hike, and also the buyers after that. Usually in those cases, if say I was a big fund and has been given confirmed information about the hike, I could very well be a willing buyer 2-3 weeks before the announcement. I am not stupid enough to whack the shares out of the normal average daily volume but I will be aggressive. But I will also be buying after the announcement so as to legitimise the whole thing. So, I might buy up to 5mn before and another 5mn after ... These differences has to be borne by someone, guess who.

So when an order as such takes place, one or two trading desks will get wind of it of managing the buying. The info will flow out, the very same desks will even take on extra long positions in the stock. The reverse is true as well when a fund is trying to offload a big position. The beneficiaries of this little circle can be enormous, trust me.

Of course not every one does that, but it happens more often than not.

RAIDER COMMENT,

WHERE U WANT TO INVOLVE IN THIS LOSER GAME ?

LETS BE PRACTICAL....WE ARE SMALL FRY.....ALL THIS BIG FUND MANAGER, BIG BOSSES, SYNDICATE ALL HAVE CONNECTION & WIRE UP LOH......!!

AGAIN....THEY EMPLOY WHERE INTELLIGENT FUND MANAGER, ANALYST AND THEY GOT HUGE FIRING POWE LOH........!!

HOW CAN SMALL INVESTOR WINS AGAINST THIS HUGE ODDS ?
THE KEY....IS MARGIN OF SAFETY....CONTRAIAN INVESTING AND LONG TERM INVESTING ....WHERE THE SMALL INVESTOR CAN EVEN THE ODDS LOH....!!
RAIDER NAPSHOT 40 SUCCESS IS A GOOD EXAMPLE LOH....!!

Posted by miracle4faith > 2014-04-25 00:51 | Report Abuse

welcome sifu raider...must learn more from u...i seldom visited investlah nowdays...more knowledge here for beginner like me....hope sifu raider can guide me more....

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 00:57 | Report Abuse

In 1998, as the stock market was falling, what did the Malaysian authority do?
I recalled they started giving direct advice on the stock market.
The PM of the day was asking people to buy while the foreign institutions and others were selling.
Met an older investor during that period, he decried ... don't listen to him, you would be hurt.
In fact he was selling.
He was right. The market continued unabated downwards.
A few months later into the crisis, I met him again.
"Now is the best time to buy", he said.
I had asked all my family members to go in. The market was around 800 then.
But the market kept going downwards.

It capitulated at around 300.


Bumble Bee
Crash Crisis Date,

1969 (may 13)
1974 (oil crisis)
1982 (pan electric)
1986(msia property crisis)
1987 (oct 13 crash)
1999-2000 (dotcom bubble burst)
2008 next one, 2016-2018 onwards must get out!?
2013(May Ge 13)

Notice all the Crash is in a high interest environment except for 2008.
Normally a cycle is about 10 yrs....consist of at least 1 boom & 1 doom loh.....!!
A major bull & doom can result in a 40% gain or loss of the mkt mah......!!
But there is also some major correction and big upward movement in between about 20%


Investsmart,

IF you must get out of the market in an impending crisis (we can't predict this):

1. Get out EARLY.
2. When the crisis is established and everyone knows about it, it is almost always the time to buy.
3. If you were still in the market at this stage, probably better to average down than to sell.
Of course, I am assuming:
1. You are staying with good quality stocks.
2. Your buying and selling is based on price and value.

Getting out EARLY.
I have never been able to do this in every market downturn.
So, this must be difficult.

RAIDER ADVICE !!

ALWAYS STICK TO MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!
AT LEAST BY DOING THIS U DON GO OVER COMMITTED WHEN CRISIS STRIKE MAH....!!

1.FIRST SIGN OF CRASH LARI KUAT KUAT SELL AT LEAST 30% OF YOUR HOLDING.
2. SELL THE STOCK U HAVE HAND THAT IS NOT PAYING GOOD DIVIDEND YIELD OR HAS LOWER MARGIN OF SAFETY MAH.....!!
3. HANG ON TO YOUR STOCK WHICH HAVE GOOD DIVIDEND YIELD, HIGH MARGIN OF SAFETY, STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LOW PRICE TO BOOK VALUE.
4. WHEN MKT CRASH DOWN 20% OCCUR....DON JUMP IN IMMEDIATELY LOH....WAIT FOR IT....TO STABILISE AND VOLUME IS XTREMELY LOW B4 U JUMP IN WITH YOUR 1ST 15% LOH.....!!
5. LOOK FOR SIGN OF UPTREND B4 U BUY YOUR BALANCE 15% MAH.....!!
6. TYPE OF STOCK U SUPPOSE TO BUY ? MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK......ESPECIALLY THE STOCK....U HAD SOLD...AND NOW U GOT CHANCE TO PICK UP AT A FRACTION OF ITS COST LOH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 00:58 | Report Abuse

AFTER MARKET CRASH NORMALLY IT TAKES ABOUT 3 YRS FOR IT RECUPERATE AND FINALLY RECOVER LOH...!!
YOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE EXCEPTIONAL GOOD MONIES IS IN THIS PERIOD LOH....!!
BE PREPARE TO HOLD LONG LOH......!!

BUY WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY .......BUT U MAY INCLUDE SOME GROWTH & BLUECHIPS STOCK INTO YOUR PORTFOLIO TOO LOH......!!!

WHEN THE PE IS XTREMELY LOW AND DIVIDEND YIELD IS XTREMELY HIGH AND THE BALANCE SHEET COMPANY ARE STRONG.....U MAY CONSIDER LEVERAGE LOH.....!!
THIS IS THE BEST TIME TO BORROW LOH.......!!!
BUT MAX LEVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 30%

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-25 00:58 | Report Abuse

A few companies are crazy-ILB,PMCORP,FACBIND

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 01:06 | Report Abuse

Steven Yong,

Why u say these companies are crazy ?

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-25 01:09 | Report Abuse

all selling at or below its Net Cash per share!!

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-25 01:09 | Report Abuse

Get all the rest of Assets for FREE!! Phew

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 01:11 | Report Abuse

Really ?....I think previously yes....!!
But now no loh....!!

However....it is trading at substantial below NTA....!!

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-25 01:16 | Report Abuse

who say no...FACBind obviously, PMCorp near to, and ILB also....

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-25 08:56 | Report Abuse

Special thanks to sifu raider who always remind us of Margin of Safety. It is really useful and the most practical one!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-25 11:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by leno > 2014-04-25 11:12 | Report Abuse

Just a reminder to everyone here hor ..
i3 = investor cubic = this forum
where as 3i is the Psyhotic Blue Chip promoter in the other forum.
Let's pray together that this psychotic fellow no come in here ... AMEEEEEEN

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-25 11:36 | Report Abuse

Haha, i guess he must have infiltrated i3 with diff name oreidi!!

Posted by wonder > 2014-04-25 11:36 | Report Abuse

Waaa....feeling abit proud la sifu general raider included FACB into its snapshot!!!

Posted by changbl > 2014-04-25 11:45 | Report Abuse

Leno, you don't mulut besar later that psycho really come and jump onto our good friend's back again, then you know. STOCKRAIDER good to know you are here...............MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA

Posted by leno > 2014-04-25 11:50 | Report Abuse

DARN ! Leno dunno why all these psyhotic people like to keep following leno everi where .... first that Chow cabai raider, now ... chang blur blur ... later .... AAAAARGHHHH !!! Pui kiri pui kanan ... Must go mandi bunga today to buang all the sueh ..