Chipee

Good share from Michael Lee

1 month ago

ChandranG

... Big funds are selling today as well ?

1 month ago

KimSua

Issue with India restriction on chlorinated latex glove, impacting mainly Harta.

1 month ago

Chipee

Yeah. Harta subsidiary in India mislabel their chlorinated latex glove as non-chlorinated and sold to hospitals at cheaper price. It's really about money and tax I think. Don't think shithole of a country like India cares about the environment.

https://www.medicalbuyer.co.in/hartalega-supplies-banned-chlorinated-gloves-through-mun-health-product/

1 month ago

Chipee

Ok... I read the Indian article again and finally straighten things out. Typical India talking pusing pusing. ...

Mun Health (buyer in India) imports non-medical gloves (chlorinated) and sell them to hospitals at cheaper price. Bcoz non-medical gloves are cheaper. Mun Health is undercutting other suppliers in India by cheating. Mun Health should be punished instead of banning Harta. Has nothing to do with Harta. Harta just sells what is ordered by Mun Health. Mun Health gets Harta to OEM the glove under "Glove-On Eureka" brand.

This Indian article talk about mislabelling la for the port of entry bla bla bla .... purposely declare as non-medical so no need to submit certification la just to blame Harta ... wahlau... .

1 month ago

hng33

bought kossan at 1.85-1.86

1 month ago

hng33

The U.S. government announced a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese surgical gloves, raising rates to 50% for 2025 and 100% for 2026F.

The final modification imposes a much steeper tariff, which will significantly increase Chinese average selling prices (ASPs) to US$25.50/1K pcs by 2025 and US$34/1K pcs by 2026, from the current ASP of US$17/1K pcs. Given that Malaysian manufacturers' blended ASPs of US$19-21/1K pcs currently, Chinese ASPs are expected to exceed those of Malaysian producers by 21%-34% as early as next year. Hence, the reversal of the current price gap between Chinese and Malaysian gloves would enhance the competitive position of Malaysian players.


Remark: Kossan export about 45-50% of its glove to US market

1 month ago

hng33

The impact on USD weakness is mitigated by fact that 40% of glove manufacture cost are also denominated in USD.

The remain negative impact on USD weakness can easily offset entirely by increase glove ASP which have big room of hike in 2025 by 20% from current US$19-21/1K pcs to US$25.50/1K pcs by 2025 to match Chinese glove and further 40% hike ASP potential US$34/1K pcs by 2026 match Chinese glove.

Glove profitability in USD= ASP hike + globve volume sold - (feedcost in USD)

Remark: The impact on USD weakness is NOT only affect Msia glove manufacture, but also affect Thai and China glove manufacture.

USD weakness by 12.5% in RM
USD weakness by 10.9% in Thai bath
USD weakness by 3.5% in Chinese Yuan

Therefore, all top 3 top global glove maker will collectively demand ASP hike to offset USD weakness

1 month ago

Chipee

Thx u hng33

1 month ago

hng33

With tumbling in crude oil price now, glove maker energy cost and major raw material cost, nitrile butadiene will decrease substantially. Both energy and raw material collectively form 20% and 30% respectively, input cost in glove manufacturing. Raw material cost is denominator in USD, offer natural hedge again weak USD

Incoming US traffic 50% surcharge on competitor China glove will prompt Msia hike ASP more than offset weakness in USD. This tariff move removes the underutilization of glove makers with a very high margin. Profits are coming back

1 month ago

hng33

Based on The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced final modifications concerning the statutory review of the tariff actions in the Section 301 investigation of the People's Republic of China's (PRC) Acts, Aside Medical Gloves. Increase rate to 50 percent in 2025 and 100 percent in 2026.

Another glove manufacture product, facemask also impose tax increament. Face Masks. Increase rate to 25 percent in 2025 and 50 percent in 2026.

1 month ago

hng33

added more kossan at 1.88

1 month ago

stevenckheng

dont forget banggla minimum salary gonna be 2k/month

1 month ago

hng33

Foreign worker wage if increase, glove maker can easily adopt cost pass through as there is BIG room for ASP hike to UP begin next year to compete China glove after 50% tax hike and following year 100% tax hike for China glove

In additional, cost production will also decrease due to tumbling crude oil, a main raw material for nitrile butadiene and energy cost, offset wages increase

1 month ago

hng33

Take note, current Malaysia glove main threat is competition from China which force Malaysia glove ,anmaufacture to halt ASP hike and decrease plant utilization rate to 35%.

Therefore, once US Tax enforce 50% on China glove in next year and 100% tax next on 2026, Malaysia glove maker will regain back glove market share in US

1 month ago

Chipee

Msia is killing our own economy. Hiking foreign pay will syphon our money into their country. And at 2K/month, this foreign workers don't pay tax although there's levies paid but paid by employers. Increasing foreign pay will not encourage employers to hire locals instead bcoz locals don't want the job to begin with.

1 month ago

hng33

Agreed. If minimum wage pass, many EMS and semiconductor industries will suffer as they can't pass cost through due to fixed orderbook price

Construction and properties sector also suffer, increase project cost and hike properties selling price is inevitable which will result low demand

For glove manufacture, situation is bit different due to policy anti-China glove product, a massive hike of 50% tax in 2025 and 100% hike in 2026 will give huge room for Malaysia to capitalize with huge ASP hike forward and increase volume loaded and higher plant utilization.

In additional, crude oil slump resulted cheaper raw material nitrile butadiene will give higher profit margin forward

1 month ago

Chipee

Then we should see better result in Q3. Nat gas and oil prices are down. Q4 we should see more order coming from US. They might avoid China fearing their cargo may arrive in 2025.

1 month ago

hng33

More importantly is promising outlook, both in 2025 and 2026 when major competitor suffers 50% and 100% tax levy given Msia glove maker ample room to hike ASP and increase current loss making depress 35% plant utilization rate for next 2 year forward.

1 month ago

dompeilee

dompeilee

Posted by dompeilee > 2024-01-08 08:48

I didn't manage to buy Kossan @ $1 BUT my last purchases were @ $1.2932, $1.2767 & $1.384 in June & July 2022 which more than doubled my earlier stake & lowered my average to $1.8003 & earned $322.75 in dividends to boot!🤗

After selling most of my Kossan a little too early in Jan & Mar, I SOLD 80% of my remaining stake @ $2.25 this morning.

1 week ago

Ahhh...satisfying!!!☝ Got chance to re-average down again closer to 2025!

1 month ago

hng33

Topglove highlight
1. The Group is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in Sept 2024 and expects customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding by distributors, indicating that demand recovery had further gained momentum. Presently, its sales volume had strengthened 25%-30% MoM, bringing utilisation rate to 65%-70% vs. our assumption of 55% in FY25 (based on 64b pieces capacity) compared to 45% in 3QFY24. Recall, it has previously highlighted that the bulk of a shipment delay in 3QFY24 estimated at 500m pieces had already been shipped and will be booked in 4QFY24.

2. It is optimistic that ASPs are expected to inch up gradually, potentially by 5%-15% or USD0.80 - USD1.50 per 1,000 pieces due to the uptick in demand and mitigation against the appreciating MYR against USD. However, due to the lag impact, ASP increases will only be felt gradually starting from Nov-Dec CY24. We believe predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period to eliminate competition) have diminished as Chinese players’ utilization hit >90% While TOPGLOV is silent on existing ASP, we estimate every USD1 change impacts earnings by below 2%. We conservatively assumed ASP of USD20/1,000 pieces in our earnings model.

3. The group highlight that its exports to the US is continuing to show improvement which currently accounts for 28%-30% of its geographical sales mix. As an indication, TOPGLOV has seen its volume sales from the US market raising 20% YoY to account for 15% in 9MFY24 compared to pre-pandemic average of 20%-30%.

1 month ago

KimSua

Thank you for the information and objectivity. Next 2 qtrs will have to be great if all the finincials estimates are accurate

1 month ago

hng33

healthcare services are often considered defensive, increase volume sold, plant utilisation and ASP hike are main catalyst to propel earning recovery back to prepademic earning.

1 month ago

ChandranG

Great, Kossan will breaks 2 again !

1 month ago

hng33

Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank is not in a rush to rapidly cut rates.

Better invest in defensive healthcare related stock, glove is essential and stiff China competition is easing due to upcoming 50% tax levy in 2025 and 100% tax levy in 2026

1 month ago

hng33

Bargain Hartalega & Kossan
Hartalega will need convincing strength above the 100-day ma (RM3.06) to fuel further upside towards RM3.30, the 123.6%FP (RM3.43) and 138.2%FP (RM3.68) ahead, while downside risk is capped by the 76.4%FR (RM2.66). Kossan need a confirmed breakout above the 200-day ma (RM2.06) to enhance upside momentum towards the 100-day ma (RM2.19), RM2.33 and 123.6%FP (RM2.42) going forward, while the 61.8%FR (RM1.79) and lower Bollinger band (RM1.71) cushions downside.

1 month ago

hng33

Indications are pointing to a strong demand recovery moving into 4QCY24 and CY25 that will exceed our previous assumptions, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors. Specifically, there has been uptick in orders over the past two quarters. The rise in demand comes as the inventories of major distributors across all regions have returned to normal levels. Case in point - HARTA expects to hit sales volume of 2.2b pieces/month in 2HFY25. Already, HARTA has seen 1QFY25 orders hitting close to 2b pieces per month compared to 1.5b-1.8b pieces per month in 4QFY24 and 3QFY23. TOPGLOV is optimistic that the strong growth momentum will sustain, as customers continue replenishing their depleting glove stockpiles. The group continues to see MoM uptrend in sales volume in June 2024 and expect customers’ replenishment activity to pick up in subsequent quarters, underpinned by inventory rebuilding from distributors, indicating early signs of potential recovery in demand. It has seen sales order rising 25%-30% MoM. Tell-tale signs of predatory pricing by certain overseas players (i.e. selling below cost over an extended period of time to eliminate competitors) have diminished. Specifically, glove players under our coverage have seen their ASPs rising over the past two quarters, potentially implying demand is on the path to a recovery boosted by order replenishment.

1 month ago

hng33

ASP gradually to increase 20% from current USD 19/k to USD 23/k

1 month ago

hng33

USD strength further to RM 4.27 due to global tension and fed hint no rush to cut rate

4 weeks ago

hng33

Malaysia’s gloves export volume surged 66% MoM and 105% YoY in Aug, outpacing the growth in July (+12% MoM; +43% YoY). The latest export volume is even 34% higher compare to pre-pandemic 2-years monthly average number indicating that the recovery momentum of global gloves demand remains healthy.

4 weeks ago

hng33

breakout RM 2.00

3 weeks ago

hng33

major shareholder accumulate more kossan share

3 weeks ago

ChandranG

Bosses came out and bought the shares again

3 weeks ago

hng33

💪

3 weeks ago

KimSua

market spook by Topglove operating loss again. Just look at the revenue increase as a benchmark and not be too concern as Kossan operating expenses is well control. The best amoung the top 4.

3 weeks ago

EverettLee

Nice, glove sentiment is back again

3 weeks ago

hng33

Post removed.Why?

3 weeks ago

EngineeringProfit

I am back

3 weeks ago

Chipee

I think we can forget about Q3 result. Look at Topglove, they make a loss and the stock is up.
Bull all the way for gloves.

3 weeks ago

hng33

令吉转弱 RM 4.31

2 weeks ago

hng33

sold to locked profit at 2.08

2 weeks ago

Chipee

When US tariff announce at 25% in 2026, Kossan shot to Rm3.
Now US tariff already announce at 50% in 2025 and 100% in 2026..... It should shoot up to at least Rm3.

2 weeks ago

ChandranG

Sold too soon, hng33

1 week ago

ket4212

hng33 go to buy wct lo

1 week ago

KimSua

Sideways trading last 10 days. Strong price action yesterday afternoon. Let's see if can continue to break out strongly 2.1

6 days ago

KimSua

I think big funds will sideline until the US election

5 days ago

Chipee

ABRD and KWSP dispose SAME number of shares for a few days? I think there's some glitch in Bursa information or something weird is going on.

5 days ago

Chipee

Doesn't make any difference if Trump or Kamala. Both are anti-China.
But watch on Congress wins. See who holds majority for control. I'm hoping for almost 50/50 position.

5 days ago

Chipee

EU-China tariff fight is ON! Just like war, China will retaliate with tariff on EU and EU hopefully retaliate with tariff on ... China gloves? 😁

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/31/china-tells-carmakers-to-pause-investment-in-eu-countries-backing-ev-tariffs-sources-say

4 days ago

ChandranG

Malaysia gloves tengok wayang and taking 💰

3 days ago