Share Investment
Gadang Attracts Differing Views – Buddyinvest
Disclaimer: This blog is to share the interesting observations I made in i3investor. Nothing in this article should be considered as investment advice nor is intended to be investment advice.
Market is vibrant and dynamic. Some say Gadang is a multi-beggar stock in 2017. Some say this will not be possible. Exchange of views between OTB & KYY took place today. Debates are still ongoing. I felt compelled to summarise on what I have observed. By doing so, I hope we can learn something useful from this episode. Please find below my humble observations.
In my personal capacity, I don’t buy such stock because mine is always premised on Business Sense Strategy.
It will be nice to think Gadang is capable of winning new projects soon. Too much assumptions can be dangerous in share investment. Let’s say Gadang secures new infra projects in the next 3 months. They still need time to sort out approvals from relevant authourities before they can get their resources mobilised. Typically, the S-curve of any infra works requires a period of 6-9 months to take off where the more meaningful earnings will be recognised afterwards.
If Gadang secures new projects, say in the next 3 months, I will still not buy it. This is because by the time the earning contribution is recognised (possibly after the next 9 months), the construction theme-play could have been already over. Rising steel prices can dampen construction theme-play. At present, we won’t know the steel prices in the next 9 months.
Special Note: I respect both OTB & KYY for their differring approaches for the same stock.
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 34 of 34 comments
From my homework done, Gadang will able to achieve better result in 2017 than 2016.
Let time tells us whether my assumption is correct or not, I do not wish to argue over this matter. I have my responsibility to ensure this information is correct so that every subscriber will enjoy this benefit to subscribe to my articles.
Thank you.
Ooi
2016-12-12 20:13
Good spirit to see OTB defence for his subscribers.
Hopefully, Gadang will do well.
2016-12-12 20:16
I have faith in OTB sir homework done for Gadang ( with most of the tendered contracts are locally, unlike Mudajaya wich has too many uncertainties to look after ) ; will seriously take a detail look given it has badly beaten down.
2016-12-12 20:31
I was Gadang investor long time way before KYY promoted this counter. I think even before OTB made his position known to public. This buddyinvest is late comer to gadang. When KYY first promoted gadang using "cup and handle" chart, this buddyinvest also talk about cup and handle chart in gadang forum. Now KYY said sell, or "business sense investing" he also talked the same tune. Really beh tahan this kind of people.
Posted by buddyinvest > Oct 18, 2016 01:04 PM | Report Abuse
Mr. Ooi, it looks like Gadang is rocketing again after the completing the formation of second cup-and-handle. It is a mini size this time.
The mini cup was profiled for a duration of 1 month 11 days, and the handle was formed in 4 days, thus satisfying the cup-and-handle pattern as described in the TA literature of below link
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation
What do you think? Appreciate your sharing.
Posted by buddyinvest > Aug 9, 2016 03:33 PM | Report Abuse
ini kali baru betul... cup & handle... see you Gadang at 4.00
Posted by buddyinvest > Aug 9, 2016 04:49 PM | Report Abuse
Lai lai cup & handle with increased volume. resistance broken. hehe.. sky is the limit,
2016-12-12 21:06
First of all, does future year profit higher than current profit is a must golden rule to apply? If not sell no matter it fell 10,20,3,50%? This is insane and stupid! Define current year? Investment should not be based on 9 months or 3 months, is a moving number, if gadang win another contract after q2, this does not mean that you cannot buy and have to wait until financial year 2017 is completed only you start to buy! Pure silly judgement! The golden rule should be a moving target, nutss
2016-12-12 21:15
haha one thing is for sure. gadang is so popular. discussion never stops on this stock.
2016-12-12 21:36
It is a fact that KYY was right to call a sell for GADANG. One can anytime re-enter at lower price now...no regret in my opinion.
2016-12-12 21:50
Don't forget once a share is diluted, prominent investor will sell immediately.
Gadang will have to do a lot of hard work to achieve the same eps as before.
2016-12-12 21:54
stocktrader3 I was Gadang investor long time way before KYY promoted this counter. I think even before OTB made his position known to public. This buddyinvest is late comer to gadang. When KYY first promoted gadang using "cup and handle" chart, this buddyinvest also talk about cup and handle chart in gadang forum. Now KYY said sell, or "business sense investing" he also talked the same tune. Really beh tahan this kind of people.
Reply: This is part of investment journey. Most importantly, we learn what actually went wrong and move forward.
2016-12-12 22:11
Ooi Teik Bee From my homework done, Gadang will able to achieve better result in 2017 than 2016.
Let time tells us whether my assumption is correct or not, I do not wish to argue over this matter. I have my responsibility to ensure this information is correct so that every subscriber will enjoy this benefit to subscribe to my articles.
Thank you.
Ooi
Reply: I respect your decision.
2016-12-12 22:13
sklyte First of all, does future year profit higher than current profit is a must golden rule to apply? If not sell no matter it fell 10,20,3,50%? This is insane and stupid! Define current year? Investment should not be based on 9 months or 3 months, is a moving number, if gadang win another contract after q2, this does not mean that you cannot buy and have to wait until financial year 2017 is completed only you start to buy! Pure silly judgement! The golden rule should be a moving target, nutss
Reply: I just get my observations documented.
2016-12-12 22:19
Buddy, I trust your observation and u are a person with fairness.
Pls drop by to Hibiscus, hope u will do a scan for Hibiscus.
I have high hope on Hibiscus. Tq
2016-12-12 22:19
respect otb sir. he stands firm with his analysis even during hard times. now whether his analysis turn out to be true or false, it doesn't really matter as nobody can know the future. true leader.
2016-12-12 23:10
Discipline on investment strategy. Market is driven by human emotion for short term. Price will be driven by it fundamental result for long term. Good to see varies if opinion.
2016-12-13 09:03
One thing KYY forgot is that share value is to predict future worth of a company not just one financial year. The current price has depreciated more than 20% but does this means Gadang overall performance this year will be less than 20%? Nope, many doesn't think so. So if Gadang perform equally as good this year? Prices will go up. Even if it doesn't, the current price is already priced in the reduction in profit. KYY really exagerate everything.
2016-12-13 15:04
sad to see many ppl fall in love with stocks, with this contract book, how to make more profit? I really don't understand, even gadang able to replenish order book it might not be able to record under FY17.
2016-12-13 15:08
why still talking about gadang? why not find counter that still great potential and yet to be discovered?
2016-12-13 15:15
this is simply ego talking lo.....
true investing got no favourites one....
who cares as long make money right? hehe
2016-12-13 15:17
Why all come to study on Gadang.
Airasia, ecoworld, etc with so many issues and speculator but no one go to study them .
If dig more , airasia and ecoworld stock will dum
2016-12-13 15:35
@Ryan88
Because KYY attacked this stock but OTB defense this stock. It make it very interesting to study.
2016-12-13 15:40
@Whey whey, they didn't attack each other. I would say they exchange their views.
You are right, their differing views motivated me to observe & study their reasonings.
2016-12-13 17:03
From exchange views to ego defenses when kyy can not accept dff views from him
2016-12-13 18:47
Ryan88 From exchange views to ego defenses when kyy can not accept dff views from him
Re: KYY cannot accept different views not without valid reasonings. We are here to learn, not to blindly render support for any camps.
2016-12-13 21:45
Construction sector is gone case. With pressures of increase raw material cost such as steel and tight margins due to stiff competition, i really doubt the outlook will be good.
2016-12-13 23:15
Very simple facts for Gadang. Gadang current main income from Petronas Johor project and it is more than half way through. While on hand project depleted until such a low level at RM600 Million. Gadang is Currently looking out for other project that they may not be familiar with. You can extrapolate the outcome for next two years from these facts alone.
2016-12-14 12:06
You see a lot familiar faces here they are the cronies for those who like to blame the government.
2016-12-14 16:38
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
VenFx
What's your point ? Buddy , I would take this as a study material to remind myself , and nothing more than that... tq
2016-12-12 20:03