股海無涯
【Airasia】對最近暴跌和下星期16Q3業績的一些看法 | 股海無涯
股海無涯
Publish date: Fri, 18 Nov 2016, 12:51 PM
股海無涯
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依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅槃
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
Estimate:
Net Operating Profit: 563m
PAT: 329m
EPS: 11.8 Cents
以上是较为保守的估算,
主要是因为现在局势有点抓不清. 既然是预测还是保守点好.
实际业绩出炉业绩优于预估的可能性觉得还是很高的
预测方式有兴趣的朋友可参考上一篇关于AAX的预测, 里面有较为详细的提到我预测的一些标准, http://e-thg.blogspot.sg/2016/11/aax16q3.html
Hedge & Deffered tax反映在Report里的时间点基本上没有依据可循, 基本上都是靠大概猜的. Exchange Loss估计在150m-200m左右
泰国Q3业绩是已经出炉的, 按31/9的汇率, 也就38m左右.
这个业绩稍微比我的期望来的差. 不过属于可接受范围.
印尼和菲律宾估计持平, 这里预测小小盈利.
总结:
就个人来说, 是不错的业绩, Exchange Loss不在控制范围, 也没办法.
除去Exchange Loss的影响, 明年竞争格局没有太大改变, 还能保持这样的成绩, 估计2017 EPS会在50-70cents 左右, 也就是说以现在2.6左右的价格, PE只是4-5x
而且还未考量AAC的影响.
当然, AAC本身也有不确定性存在.
个人来说暂时没有卖出的打算.
最近的大跌除了Exchange loss对未来业绩预期的影响,
另外一个主要原因外资担心资本管制和汇差对于他们的影响
不要忘了AA有56%是持有在外资手里, 除了业绩和公司本身发展, 外资投行对于我国的资金自由流动性和汇率涨跌是非常敏感的.
看看这几天Bursa公布的外资卖出幅度, 也不难了解AA大跌的原因了.
至于本地投资者是否有必要随外资起舞, 然后再低价杀入,
毕竟投资风格各有所爱, 这里就不予置评了.
卍 個人分析記錄 買賣盈虧自負 分析若有錯誤 勞煩提點指出
Facebook PAGE: https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
股海無涯 Blog: http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
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Discussions
8 people like this. Showing 11 of 11 comments
Good Article and analysis股海無涯.
Hope your estimation are accurate like Q2.
2016-11-18 17:15
this estimation main for myself, so i try to make it more conservative to provide margin of safety.
if you talk about accuracy, i should said 450m will more close to the final result, after factor in deffer tax and Excg gain frm assosiate
2016-11-18 18:23
好奇的是， 如过， 2015 Q3,的飞机数量是81台， staffcost 是（179），那么2016Q3 的 飞机数量是 77 台， staff cost是 （240）。 那么， 员工成本的提升是那个方面？ 愿股海兄赐教
2016-11-18 21:50
http://www.airasia.com/my/en/about-us/ir-operating-statistics.page
最新的operating statistic都會註明飛機數,
80臺減少77臺主要是2臺通過AAC租給日本airasia, 預備明年Q1的launch.
雖然飛機數減少, 可以看到載客量, RPK都是增加的,
人手增加+員工加薪, staff cost 增加也屬正常,
不過上季度有點飆升的感覺, 不過還在接受範圍內. staff cost我是按上季度來Estimate的
2016-11-18 22:51
Lse2016, thx for your comment and i am flatter,
i really dunno i have such power to move Huge counter with over 10m volumn jus by single simple estimation.
anyway, my estimation on AAX is not accurate,
tht is wht i should admit
and learn from my mistake
and improve next time =D
Cheers!
2016-11-24 19:16
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Good sharing.
All in all, we have to see how 16Q3 result stack up to current local n global sentiments and play. Some will play wait and see game till the result, while others expect the 'big mama' sale to be the pivotal turning point.
2016-11-18 13:07