goreng_kaki

Loser always talk negative to find their psychological comfort ( i say somebody ok), let the time and the market prove whether vs would worth rm 7 or not...

also, if you are so care about the CASH, go buy the china stock, all we know china stock hold billion billion of cash but no dividend willing to given out...this is so called good stock huh??? this is what you want huh???

2015-08-09 00:15

Hiu Chee Keong

Any ideas how to buy small cap index ? Got or not ?

2015-08-09 01:18

kcchongnz

Posted by goreng_kaki > Aug 9, 2015 12:15 AM | Report Abuse
Loser always talk negative to find their psychological comfort ( i say somebody ok), let the time and the market prove whether vs would worth rm 7 or not...
also, if you are so care about the CASH, go buy the china stock, all we know china stock hold billion billion of cash but no dividend willing to given out...this is so called good stock huh??? this is what you want huh???


goreng kaki, my articles rarely talk about goreng. This one is no exception. They discuss about businesses and their performance. They talk about value first, and then compare with price, and only invest with a wide margin of safety. That is how value investors invest. I know, it is hard for those people who like to goring shares to understand what value is, what margin of safety is.

Value investors, unlike goring kakis, don’t look for insiders, syndicates, manipulators to goring the shares to make money for them. That belongs to the school of “The Greater Fool Theory”.

I have never disputed your claim that VS share can go up to RM7, RM20, of RM20, maybe even after the split. Value investors can’t predict share price movement, none of them can, unlike those goring kakis. Goreng kakis are better than them in predictions.

Value investors generally have great appetite to read and try to understand the language of business, unlike goring kakis. For example, they will read up what is meant by cash flow, free cash flow etc. They won’t just assume the cash flow from operations, free cash flows are CASH in the balance sheet, unlike goring kakis. Goreng kakis don’t care a damn about what the financial statement is; what is balance sheet, what is cash flow statement. Goreng kakis only talk about the share price; how much it can go up to etc., but could never tell you how to justify those prices, except basing on the greater fool theory.

Values investors are not losers. In fact, most of them are great long-term compounders.

2015-08-09 06:49

Chua Lin

Thanks a lot kcchongnz

2015-08-09 07:33

soojinhou

KC, it's funny you admit that every time you write a scathing article about VS, the share price shoots higher. VS holders should be thankful to you for this article because for sure it will shoot higher on Monday.

But seriously, at this price, there is so much expectation on the stock that any slip up, such as a slowdown from Keurig, will send the share price crashing. VS holders should also note that the recent sharp increase in profit is most likely due to Keurig because Dyson has been a customer for years before that and it didn't really do much to VS' bottom line. If this observation is true, any sneeze from Keurig will affect VS badly.

2015-08-09 07:49

Alphabeta

A recent Market Watch report on Keurig 2 days back

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/keurigs-turnaround-plan-a-telling-sign-of-a-floundering-business-analysts-say-2015-08-06

2015-08-09 08:43

goreng_kaki

well said, but within 10 investors here, how many could really invest by analysis the fundamentals? the answer very clear.....

i bought VS ain't for goring or speculate or just blindly follow, it is because i am one of the insider, i also bought vs for long term unfortunately the price shoot up from 4 to 6 within 2 months, it really make me scared

I got discuss your article with the managements but you know what they are replied??
they said your analysis is great but it is just a historical data, we must always look forward and moving forward instead of too relying the pass result we had done before.

2015-08-09 09:25

kcchongnz

Posted by goreng_kaki > Aug 9, 2015 09:25 AM | Report Abuse

well said, but within 10 investors here, how many could really invest by analysis the fundamentals? the answer very clear.....

i bought VS ain't for goring or speculate or just blindly follow, it is because i am one of the insider, i also bought vs for long term unfortunately the price shoot up from 4 to 6 within 2 months, it really make me scared

I got discuss your article with the managements but you know what they are replied??
they said your analysis is great but it is just a historical data, we must always look forward and moving forward instead of too relying the pass result we had done before.


goreng kaki, thanks very much for your positive response. I am delighted about the response from the management too, very positive, rather than calling me a "stupid critic". From their response, they seem to be credible bunch of people. But you should know better than me.

So sincerely I hope you understand what I am trying to convey in my article. I have nothing against VS.

Oh yeah, one last comment. In investing, my opinion is the best person you should trust is yourself.

2015-08-09 09:47

kcchongnz

Posted by Alphabeta > Aug 8, 2015 10:27 PM | Report Abuse
KC, another important metric to measure management effectiveness is Cash Conversion Cycle ("CCC"). In VS case, its CCC has deteriorated from 33 days in FYE 07/12 to 52 days in its latest Q3 ending 04/15 report.


The longer CCC in VS as see it is purely due to its longer days in inventories turnover to 49 days for the ttm 2015, resulting CCC lengthened to 43 days, not sure how you get 53 days.

To me this may not be the problem because of the spurts of sales the last 4 quarters. We should look at CCC in annual basis, as quarterly may be lumpy because of seasonality. CCC of 43 days is not so bad to me.

2015-08-09 10:00

thebadguy

Hi KC, thanks for your sharing throughout the years. I have benefited greatly from your articles. People don't understand that everyone is human. If every single day someone can predict the price of a share to be 100% correct up or down, no need to be investor anymore, better be at Genting pick which number going to come out on the roulette. Get rich in 1 day.

2015-08-09 10:23

paperplane2

Don't be stupid! Where got director said bad on own company? The worst advice I have seen!

2015-08-09 12:24

mujihero

Careful. All the market makers have already stock up on this counter, n now trying to push up higher. Mr koon had also loaded up a lot. Watch out. Cant agreed any more that it is very attractive, but they have stocked up at pe of 5x. When rm strengthen, everyone will dump.

2015-08-09 13:11

JT Yeo

I wrote this recently on FB, which i think is applicable to this topic

投资，跑步机，赌马与赌球

当某公司的业绩出现高成长时，市场因为业绩好和期望上升而把股价抬高，就有如你在跑步机上加速。要维持速度（业绩继续成长）已不比过去容易，要跑的更快（超越市场期望）更是难上加难。这就是股价飞了后在去追的愚蠢。

赌马为例（聪明的赌）。赌马不是抓会赢的马而是找最有可能超越众望的马。谁都大概知道哪只马会赢，不然庄家怎么会给某些马赔率那么低，某些马那么高。赌球也是一样，为什么曼联的赔率永远那么低？因为曼联强嘛（我不是曼联fans)。如果你整赛季38场都死抓曼联会发财吗？为什么不会？因为市场期望都反换在赔率里面。庄不是笨，市场也不是笨。

那什么股最能超越众望？当然是市场没有期望的股。市场没有期望的股是怎样的股？应该是那些没人要的，不会动的，没volume的，业绩差的，大家看了都怕的。当然不是指买烂马，烂股你就会发财，而是说冷股比热股更能超越众望。也就是说冷股比热股的风险来的低，都没期望了还有风险吗？超人做超事，不特别（市场期望内）。超人做不到超事（市场期望破灭，股价暴跌）。凡人做超事（超越众望，股价暴飞）。

明白了吗？你可以逆势投资了

2015-08-09 13:47

Alphabeta

Example :
Inventory Outstanding = (Average Inventories)/(COS/no of days)
For QE 4/15, Inventory Outstanding = [(256+270)/2]/(1,215/273)
= 263/4.45 = 59 days outstanding

If you benchmark VS's CCC with those like Uchitec etc.. you will know what i means.

QE 4/15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11
VS RM'mil RM'mil RM'mil RM'mil RM'mil
Revenue 1,430 1,715 1,164 1,202 1,027
COS 1,215 1,517 1,058 1,055 879
GP 215 198 106 147 148
GP margin 15.0% 11.5% 9.1% 12.2% 14.4%
Y-O-Y Growth Rate
Revenue 47.3% -3.2% 17.0%
COS 43.4% 0.3% 20.0%

Inventories 256 270 178 105 87
Trade & Other Receivables 437 448 411 318 203
Trade & Other Payables 371 437 375 273 182

Days 273 365 365 366

Inventory Outstanding 59 54 49 33 DIO
Sales Outstanding 84 91 114 79 DSO
Payable Outstanding 91 98 112 79 DPO
Days Days Days Days
CCC = DIO+DSO-DPO 52 47 51 33

2015-08-09 14:07

kcchongnz

Alphabeta,

You may be right about the CCC the last three quarters. But in my opinion, that is not a problem because the poor CCC is because of the paid up of a large part of payables, not a build up of inventories, nor receivables. That also explains the poor negative FCF of the third quarter 2015 in Table 3 in my article.

I used the trailing twelve months cash flow and free cash flow, which is much better , but not that good either as shown on Table 2 in the Appendix of my article. It has never appeared to be good to me, except for just one year, in 2011.

2015-08-09 16:29

hoheho

i'm new ,please tell me where i'd learn the basic

2015-08-09 16:34

kcchongnz

Posted by ks55 > Aug 8, 2015 10:26 PM | Report Abuse
I am really puzzle why VS at 1.50 no analyst want to write about the potential.
When the price come to 6.00, all analysts will start to write fantastic report on it.
Are these analysts paid by someone to do the job?


Is this only happened to VS? I have never read an analyst report by professional analyst on any stock which was way undervalued. I only find reports on stocks which have become more well known by the investing community and hence the share prices have gone up close to or above their intrinsic values.

I have never read an analyst report saying this stock is way undervalued at an intrinsic value of RM6, but only selling at say RM2. I read a lot of analyst reports on share which have gone up to say RM6.30, and recommending a buy at a target price of say RM7.10, or just 15% upside. I have never seen the term, margin of safety in their reports.

And in the last 3-4 years, there are scores of these stocks which have gone up by 300% or 400%.

2015-08-09 17:05

tonytonychopper

Please continue to share your writings. Really appreciate them.

I can see that you treated those angry ppl as motivation to write more quality articles.

Are you writing a book? I hope can see your book at bookstore.

2015-08-10 08:55

shinebright

kcchonzzz,

Before you post such a long post on ur valuations. Please read properly la.

Based on the projected EPS of 47.5 sen for the financial year ending 31st July 2015, UOB KayHian accorded a P/E ratio of 14.9 for VS with a target price of RM7.10. Is this PE ratio a reasonable one?

The PE ascribed is only 11x. 14.9x is the average valuation of its peer. Not VS la.


Table 2 in the Appendix shows that VS has negative free cash flow for the last three years because of its high capital expenses. For the last four quarters, its cash flow has improved tremendously with a total free cash flow of RM15.4m. That FCF isn’t great at all as it is less than 1% of its revenue, and just 1.5% of the total capital invested in the business. Cash yield wise, it is only 1.4%, far below the interest rate one can get from the bank.

The negative cash flow is due to the consolidation of its 43.9% owned VSIG. Its Msia operation is doing well. No one sees it like that please esp when it only owns VSIG at 43.9%.

Investing is about the future

“I know of no way of judging of the future but by the past” Patrick Henry

Yes, I know, I don’t know about the future of VS like many do. And yes, my limited knowledge of VS is from the financial statements, a history. The past has no relevance. VS is going to get many big contracts from Keurig, the evolutionary cold drink makers, and new customers etc. This time is different. You already can see from its share price performance.

If you look at FBMKLCI as a whole, I believe you notice VS is not the only stock dropping so much. It drops in tandem with the index along with other stocks too.


With your limited knowledge on VS as well as valuation, best save your time and efforts on smtg else.

2015-08-10 10:54

cjcj

kckc will only appear when vs share price is down... this is truth, that's all and thank you.

2015-08-10 11:19

cjcj

And also it is based on historical data. Please refer to his past article. Thank you.

2015-08-10 11:21

kcchongnz

Posted by shinebright > Aug 10, 2015 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

kcchonzzz,

Before you post such a long post on ur valuations. Please read properly lah
The PE ascribed is only 11x. 14.9x is the average valuation of its peer. Not VS la.

Me: Price = 7.10
EPS = 47.5,
PE =7.10/0.475 = 14.9
No?

The negative cash flow is due to the consolidation of its 43.9% owned VSIG. Its Msia operation is doing well. No one sees it like that please esp when it only owns VSIG at 43.9%.

Me:How does it change the cash flow of the group?

If you look at FBMKLCI as a whole, I believe you notice VS is not the only stock dropping so much. It drops in tandem with the index along with other stocks too.

Me:Did I say anything abut VS share price dropping in the article???


With your limited knowledge on VS as well as valuation, best save your time and efforts on smtg else.

Me:You don't like to read things that do not agree with you. But it seems others like to read woh.

Posted by tonytonychopper > Aug 10, 2015 08:55 AM | Report Abuse
Please continue to share your writings. Really appreciate them.
I can see that you treated those angry ppl as motivation to write more quality articles.
Are you writing a book? I hope can see your book at bookstore.

Posted by thebadguy > Aug 9, 2015 10:23 AM | Report Abuse
Hi KC, thanks for your sharing throughout the years. I have benefited greatly from your articles. People don't understand that everyone is human. If every single day someone can predict the price of a share to be 100% correct up or down, no need to be investor anymore, better be at Genting pick which number going to come out on the roulette. Get rich in 1 day.

Posted by Chua Lin > Aug 9, 2015 07:33 AM | Report Abuse
Thanks a lot kcchongnz

Posted by duitKWSPkita > Aug 7, 2015 04:34 PM | Report Abuse http://cdn1.i3investor.com/cm/icon/trans16.gif
“thanks for sharing KC CHONG...
appreciate ur kind time for analysis always.............
KC CHONG, I love FA so I never miss all your FA write up.
KC CHONG, may I request if possible to re-analyze VS's financial performance on next QR report. I like to learn should they have certain improvement in facts and figures after the expansion. No doubt CIMB presents an attractive TP of RM7.10 (almost similar with KYY's) but no harm to do an analysis before & after business growth.
Again, thanks Senior Kc Chong. “

2015-08-10 12:46

kcchongnz

cjcj kckc will only appear when vs share price is down... this is truth, that's all and thank you.

" For God sake, when have I ever “put down” its share price in any of the articles? And every time I write about it, its share price goes up and shareholders of VS are all laughing to the banks. Isn’t that wonderful? This time I just refer to an article done by UOB KayHian about V.S as shown in the appendix below. Again I like to talk about contrarian view, something to ponder about. Hopefully the share price of VS will gallop again."

2015-08-10 12:48

kcchongnz

Posted by cjcj > Aug 10, 2015 11:21 AM | Report Abuse
And also it is based on historical data. Please refer to his past article. Thank you.

So what are you basing on? Please show us your data and analysis of the future!

2015-08-10 12:49

Wikiileaks

My advise is to avoid! Keurig openly said lower revenue liao!

2015-08-10 13:50

shinebright

kcchonzzz,

Before you post such a long post on ur valuations. Please read properly lah
The PE ascribed is only 11x. 14.9x is the average valuation of its peer. Not VS la.

Me: Price = 7.10
EPS = 47.5,
PE =7.10/0.475 = 14.9
No?

That's why I ask you to READ PROPERLY. IT IS BASED ON 2016 P/E. NOT FY15 LA. FY15 ALREADY ENDED LAST WEEK.

he negative cash flow is due to the consolidation of its 43.9% owned VSIG. Its Msia operation is doing well. No one sees it like that please esp when it only owns VSIG at 43.9%.

Me:How does it change the cash flow of the group?

BY NOT VALUING USING CASH FLOW.

Me:Did I say anything abut VS share price dropping in the article???

YES U DID. SEE BELOW THE LAST SENTENCE.

Yes, I know, I don’t know about the future of VS like many do. And yes, my limited knowledge of VS is from the financial statements, a history. The past has no relevance. VS is going to get many big contracts from Keurig, the evolutionary cold drink makers, and new customers etc. This time is different. You already can see from its share price performance.


Seriously save yourself from this embarrassment la.

2015-08-10 14:10

kcchongnz

shinebright kcchonzzz,

Before you post such a long post on ur valuations. Please read properly lah
The PE ascribed is only 11x. 14.9x is the average valuation of its peer. Not VS la.

Me: Price = 7.10
EPS = 47.5,
PE =7.10/0.475 = 14.9
No?

That's why I ask you to READ PROPERLY. IT IS BASED ON 2016 P/E. NOT FY15 LA. FY15 ALREADY ENDED LAST WEEK.

Me: Did I say I used your UOB's forward 2016 P/E? And how do you know its 2016 earnings is correct as it is the future? I used the most recent one , that is 2015ttm. Did you read carefully my post????

"Based on the projected EPS of 47.5 sen for the financial year ending 31st July 2015, UOB KayHian accorded a P/E ratio of 14.9 for VS with a target price of RM7.10. Is this PE ratio a reasonable one?"


BY NOT VALUING USING CASH FLOW.

Me: Yeah kah? Where you learn that one cannot use cash flows in your case?


YES U DID. SEE BELOW THE LAST SENTENCE.

Yes, I know, I don’t know about the future of VS like many do. And yes, my limited knowledge of VS is from the financial statements, a history. The past has no relevance. VS is going to get many big contracts from Keurig, the evolutionary cold drink makers, and new customers etc. This time is different. You already can see from its share price performance.

Me: Where did I say the share price dropped? Where????>

Seriously save yourself from this embarrassment la

Me: Who should save himself from embarrassment? Please carry on the discussion and see who is embarrassing himself!

2015-08-10 14:19

shinebright

UR USING UOB TP AS THE BASE. NOW U R SAYING U VALUE UR OWN. THEN WHY U PUT 7.10 THERE AS CALCULATION? BTW, MOST TP DERIVED FROM ONE-YEAR FORWARD PE. NOT BASED ON TRAILING 4 QUARTERS. WHAT MORE, THEIR 4TH QUARTER IS NOT EVEN OUT.

As for the rest, seriously no time to argue with you la uncle. Go on and be a laughing stock. Thank you!

2015-08-10 14:22

wwchin

Dont quarrel lar. We must be a team to fight against Jibby.

2015-08-10 14:24

cm

this BUY call...sweating...

2015-08-10 14:28

kcchongnz

Posted by shinebright > Aug 10, 2015 02:22 PM | Report Abuse

UR USING UOB TP AS THE BASE. NOW U R SAYING U VALUE UR OWN. THEN WHY U PUT 7.10 THERE AS CALCULATION? BTW, MOST TP DERIVED FROM ONE-YEAR FORWARD PE. NOT BASED ON TRAILING 4 QUARTERS. WHAT MORE, THEIR 4TH QUARTER IS NOT EVEN OUT.

As for the rest, seriously no time to argue with you la uncle. Go on and be a laughing stock. Thank you!


Me:UOB gave a target price of RM7.10. That means with the ttm 15 EPS, P/E is 14.9. P/E ratio can be historical, trailing, or forward. Different people use different ratio. Who are you to say I can't use ttm P/E?

I have an independent way of doing thing. Unlike you, only can follow analyst reports. You have no analytical ability of your own!

Who is the laughing stock? Please carry on your argument.

2015-08-10 14:43

shinebright

when all dust settles, after the market normalises from the heavy selldown and stocks to trend upwards, do rmb what you wrote here and eat your words.

2015-08-10 16:00

winston1

Why buy now when you can get cheaper. Cash is king now.

2015-08-10 16:22

cm

Hope no many ppls trapped for this promotion...

2015-08-10 16:47

shinebright

>>blabbering leong

adui u wanna compare from the Tech and banking sectors izit? Tbh, it is unreasonable to compare other sectors. U wanna compare yield? Why AFG. Might as well u buy into REITS, even higher yields. Ohhh and btw, information for your tiny lil brain AFG has the highest foreign shareholding and loan growth is subdued too. Might be further downside risks to it.

2015-08-10 17:42

shinebright

Waiting and see u eat back ur words. Haha

2015-08-10 17:42

digiuser016

Hi Kcchong

Why one of your criteria is ROIC>12%?
Why not 10% or 14%?
Thank you

2015-08-10 23:44

kcchongnz

Posted by digiuser016 > Aug 10, 2015 11:44 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Kcchong
Why one of your criteria is ROIC>12%?
Why not 10% or 14%?
Thank you


Investing is an art. Hence there are no fixed criteria. Every individual is different. Different industry has different business model, assets employed and hence the difference. The difference can be big too; for example, asset light service providers have high ROIC, and asset heavy industry like VS has lower ROIC.

What I said about VS is


"The return on invested capital is also not bad at 12%, nothing great though."

2015-08-11 04:45

kcchongnz

And return on invested capital should be higher than the cost of capital, or weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

WACC = E / V * Re + D / V * Rd * (1 - Tc)

E = Market value of Equity
D = Market or Book value of Debts
V = Total value of firm = E + D
Re = Required return of equity holders
Rd = Required return of debt holders
Tc = Tax rate, as cost of debt is tax deductible

If ROIC < WACC consistently over the years, I don't see the creation of shareholder value.

For a company like VS, I would required a Re of 15%. With that WACC is not far from 12%.

I would rather to be approximately right, rather than argue too much about it.

2015-08-11 05:19

Johnnys

Dear KC,

what the extra interest cost by VS if interest rate increase by 0.5 or 1 %?

2015-08-11 15:16

hwaism

Great article. I have tons of stuff need to learn. KC, can you tell me how to get the invested capital? I could not find that in annual report.

2015-08-11 15:17

kcchongnz

Posted by hwaism > Aug 11, 2015 03:17 PM | Report Abuse

Great article. I have tons of stuff need to learn. KC, can you tell me how to get the invested capital? I could not find that in annual report.



Annual reports won't tell you that. I can't find any screener giving this metric. You may find something here:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50101.jsp

The best is if you can participate on my fee-based online course. You will learn many thnigs about finance and investing.

2015-08-11 16:46

digiuser016

thank you for your kind explanation. Do you have any more investment books to introduce?

2015-08-12 13:06

Yap Ngee Siong

Anybody can explain what is EV? Tqvm

2015-08-12 19:31

yongyou

Enterprise Value, or EV for short, is a measure of a company's total value, often used as a more comprehensive alternative to equity market capitalization.

EV = market value of common stock + market value of preferred equity + market value of debt + minority interest - cash and investments.

2015-08-12 19:33

kcchongnz

Posted by digiuser016 > Aug 12, 2015 01:06 PM | Report Abuse

thank you for your kind explanation. Do you have any more investment books to introduce?


This is one of the best investment books. Not sure I have told you before.

The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks

Another one which was sold in tens of thousand USD for charity initially.

Margin of safety by Seth Klarman

2015-08-12 19:54

kcchongnz

Posted by Yap Ngee Siong > Aug 12, 2015 07:31 PM | Report Abuse
Anybody can explain what is EV? Tqvm

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/49016.jsp

2015-08-12 20:52

hwaism

The best is if you can participate on my fee-based online course. You will learn many thnigs about finance and investing.

May I know more about the course? :)

2015-08-13 14:08

kcchongnz

Posted by hwaism > Aug 13, 2015 02:08 PM | Report Abuse
The best is if you can participate on my fee-based online course. You will learn many thnigs about finance and investing.
May I know more about the course? :)

You may contact me at ckc14invest@gmail.com

2015-08-15 16:11

Cantel Wong

MY target price for VSI, BELOW RM 2.00

2015-08-16 07:47