悲观的人看到机会背后的问题

value_investor

Publish date: Fri, 25 May 2012, 10:38 AM

Published Date: 2005-07-04

悲观的人看到机会背后的问题。

众所周知媒岸（Megan）的问题就是它的债务。
我多次的谈起媒岸，都是把重点放在它的超低本益比，而对于那庞大的债务却好像无动于衷似的。
其实，我也很关心媒岸的债务，但是我却以乐观的角度来看待这问题。
可以这样说，就是因为它背负着庞大的债务我才对它产生兴趣。

一只股能够出现超低的本益比，背后一定有它的理由。
（如果样样都好，就不会出现这现象了）

媒岸的问题，就是它扩充得太快了。
2001年它的营业额只有1亿令吉，2005年就已经飞跃至9亿令吉了。
只短短的4年就能够取得这惊人的成长，靠的就是借贷。

通过借贷来增加生产线和收购子公司，是否是一个明智的决定呢？
我相信每一位有进取心的厂家，当面对供不应求的商业机会时，都会采取这个决定。
媒岸的管理层当然也不例外。

2001年媒岸的ROE是17%，到了2005年它的ROE还可以维持在16%，从这一点就可以看出它的管理层的功力。
所以我对它的管理层投了信任的一票。
既然管理层认为提高债务来扩充业务是可行的，那么我也乐于参与其盛了。

我相信这句话：
悲观的人看到机会背后的问题。
乐观的人看到问题背后的机会。

我是乐观的人，所以我看到的是问题背后的机会。
说得清楚一点，我看到了媒岸的债务问题给它的股价带来了超低的本益比，而这超低的本益比就是一个可以令人致富的机会。

2001年，媒岸的本益比曾经来到15倍，那时候它的每股净盈利是0.33令吉，股价是5.00令吉。（5.00 / 0.33 = 15）

2005年的今天，它的股价只是区区的1.05令吉，但是它的每股净盈利还是0.32令吉，这可是3.3倍的本益比，一个超低的本益比呀！（1.05 / 0.32 = 3.3）

说真的，我得感谢媒岸的债务，如果没有这骇人的债务，这超低的本益比就不会出现了。

从这里我看到了机会：
也许不久的将来，媒岸的本益比又会来到15倍，到时如果它的每股净盈利还是维持在0.32令吉，这可是4.80的股价呀！（4.80 / 0.32 = 15）
如果它的每股净盈利随着生产线的增加，而提高到0.40令吉这可是6.00令吉的天价呀！（6.00 / 0.40 = 15）
所以这就是机会。（乐观人所看到的机会）

但是，不是每个人都乐观的。

媒岸的机会已经出现了，但是悲观的人还是能够看到这机会背后的问题：庞大的债务！

媒岸庞大的债务已经存在了，不管你喜欢不喜欢这问题都存在了。
但是，我们要知道：风险越大，机会就越高。

容我再重复这句话：
悲观的人看到机会背后的问题。
乐观的人看到问题背后的机会。

我是乐观的人。

Discussions

1 person likes this. Showing 12 of 15 comments

gohchinlim

PLS DO NOT USE MEGAN AS EXAMPLE IN ARTICLE, IT IS VERY IRONICAL, BECAUSE MEGAN IS DELISTED DUE TO FAKE ACCOUNT, MEGAN IS CHEATING ALL THE SHAREHOLDER

2 days ago

eagleis

Megan's leverage was too high and 8k failed to take that into consideration when making investment decision. That's why he got himself badly burnt into ashes.

2012-05-25 11:08

eagleis

Having said that I believe the directors of Megan should be locked up and of course the key should be thrown into South China Sea.

2012-05-25 11:10

foomeiling

K8 is stupid, just based on PE ratio and ROE (defination also wrong),the company obviously overtrading and unsustainable gearing ratio.

2012-05-25 11:15

lotsofmoney

I had already suggested to the author to shut up since you cannot and have not presented anything decent.

It is just a waste of time and an eye sores for i3investor.

Go home and do something else like fly kites.

2012-05-25 14:54

Namoyaki Takarajima

He likes Megan because he likes Megan Fox very much, that's why. Well he like Megan Fox BUT Megan Fox don't even know who he is! Hahahahaha... Market 1549 now, sigh.

2012-05-25 14:58

lotsofmoney

But I think most of the Angmo are really thick skinn Iddddd.
No wander they bankrupt the European economy.

2012-05-25 15:21

foomeiling

i think K8 is Hayaki Cafe owner, but i don't think he could write all these articles, because of his education background, completed standard six

2012-05-25 16:29

foomeiling

i think i know him, may be, but 8k的教育程度不高，只有小學畢業,do u believe that the article is written by him, :=)

2012-05-25 23:08

value_investor

@foomeiling, all articles is written by klse.8k on a famous chinese forum in Malaysia 10 years ago. I re-post the article in order i3 members can learn from the old articles. learn from the theory and learn from the Megan war as well.

a lot of peoples (including myself) did pay very expensive lesson fees on the megan war. newbie might be able to learn from this lesson for free.

2012-05-27 15:17

value_investor

@eagleis . I do agree with what you say on your post - http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900000414.jsp

a good summary.

2012-05-27 15:17

jacklew

value investor, i truly appreciate your kindness in posting the old articles for our awareness and learning. Thank you so much and happy investing.

2012-05-27 15:34

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