@The research house said on Monday the government decided no windfall tax will be imposed on glove manufacturers to avoid potential “opportunity costs/losses” such as glove manufacturing companies investing overseas instead of in Malaysia, and sending wrong signal to existing and potential investors in other industries.
Looks like my point 3 and point 5 in my blog was aligned with FM.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospeak/2020-11-03-story-h1535598133-WINDFALL_TAX_on_GLOVES.jsp
23/11/2020 10:10 AM

Thank you freetospeak and your CIA team for your earlier guidance of this windfall tax issue. I believed in your fundamental analysis, and that was why I kept averaging down as the price fell last 3 weeks. Some of us were parroting what you and your team had written on the fundamentals of Supermax, so that we can help as many newbies as possible. Many ppl here may or may not realise but they have certainly gained much understanding directly or indirect from you and your research team. There were many naysayers trying to sow fear and confusion so it was important to have a strong pillar to hold on while in the middle of a hurricane. Even KYY wavered for a shortwhile, but you never did. Please keep it up and thanks a bundle.

@Agjl https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/a-long-way-from-lab-bench-to-bedside-virus-experts-urge-covid-19-vaccine-caution-1.5199238
23/11/2020 12:46 AM

An excellent article which everyone should read carefully. Its exactly my thoughts too.

@SaveMsiaFromPHGov Posted by Arsenewenger8383 > Nov 22, 2020 9:41 PM | Report Abuse

Hehe.. ur words show ur personality bro.. i hope u did well.. dont forget to set ur target rite.. please do more research..

================

arsininewanker go fukk yourself
23/11/2020 1:06 AM

SaveMsiaFromPHGov maybe you should change your ID to SaveSPMFromNaysayersFukkers
Anyway just ab idea...:)

@Agjl Waw!!! Now somebody is spreading conspiracy theory of TG covid will eventually spread to kossan harta supermax...and whats next? Spread to careplus, rubberex comfort?? And so many factories in the nation and covid only attack gloves companies’ factories??? Waw! This covid really selective ya. I think its called” gloves naysayers covid”

Please lah, please grow up. Speak with more sense and moderation in everythg. Dun just give u a match stick, u go start an inferno... cheers!
23/11/2020 12:48 AM

If this Covid19 can selectively attack glove factories to neutralize its "enemy" in the macro world, then I won't hold any hope the so called vaccines.

@Agjl ToneeFa...i m just being sacarstic with the “ confuse” :))
23/11/2020 12:33 AM

Haha....since I saw so many here keep repeating and recycling what they have been saying , I thought I might as well join in :) . Anyway, we have to keep reminding ourselves of the fundamental analysis for Supermax so that we don't lose sight of its real value.

Those with some level of intelligence would know and realised by now vaccines are not the fixed it all solution. They are gonna need time to be fully approved, accepted by ppl and implemented. There's gonna be lots of teething problems arising. The early stage phase 3 trials were designed to look and sound good to investors and general public. Even Dr Fauci has financial interest in Pfizer and Moderna, so he will swear by them. Things like serious side effects, death and complication due to toxicity and blunders in logistics handling of vaccines and lower than expected efficacy levels are just some issues that will complicate the success of vaccines. Subsequently, the question of further mutation rendering the vaccines useless remains unanswered until post vaccination period. Hope our Health DG will take all precautions before agreeing to allow any vaccines to be deployed for mass vaccination in Msia.

When finally the vaccines are ready to be deployed for mass vaccination, then the world would see the highest glove demand in history of mankind due to convergence of demand thru Covid treatment, general SOP requirements and vaccination programs. Always remember, as argued above, Supermax, amongst all glovemakers , is in the best position to gain from during the pandemic and has the best ability to sustain a good earning levels post pandemic. Long Live Supermax !!

Between now and then, Supermax will be performing super feats by achieving the highest EPS in the whole KLSE in FY21/FY22 of 0.40-0.60/quarter for the next 6 quarters at least, with PAT between RM 1.0B to RM1.6B/quarter, and such results will coincide with KLCI inclusion and SGX dual listing. With the above results and corporate exercise certainty, should Supermax price continue at RM 8 range? KYY has given a conservative TP of RM 26 for FY21. Vaccine approval when it happens will only add more profit on top of what is oredi a record earnings.

On top of that, by next QR, Supermax will be announcing more direct long term supply contracts with various Gov't that has oredi been signed apart from US,UK and Canada Gov'ts and more factories to be set up in those countries. Supermax will soon set itself apart from its local peers to be a global giant in glove and PPE to be reckon with.

@Agjl So many talk 3 talk 4 here even lld man like me also get a bit confuse sometimes....sell, buy, hold??? Wakakakak. This is what this forum turn out to be. To confuse and to cast doubts and to turn things upside down!!!
22/11/2020 10:45 PM

Its important to bear in mind that post Covid pandemic, at best around end 2022/ early 2023 onwards, Supermax projected PAT will slowly stabilise to around RM 500m/quarter x4 = RM 2b per year x PE 18 = RM 13 post pandemic conservative fair value price as projected by freetospeak sifu. This price is only for sales of gloves and not including mask and contact lenses. Just conservatively add another 100m for that and it will be PAT RM 600m/quarter easily. Therefore, RM 13 should be the base TP of Supermax going forward.

@Agjl ,Regarding the SBB, i think its likely that stanley is reaerving all the bullets for tmrw. That alsos explain why he dod not follow TG foor steps agresively sbb in the past weeks.

Anyway, i m just fuessing. I can never know what the bosses thiking. I m just a small fry. My wish is he jack it up above 8.50 tnrw. Lets all hope for the best. Cheers
22/11/2020 3:00 PM

Agji, I think he may not use sbb to push up the price , coz such move may back fire in the review of the KLCI inclusion. The committee that carry out the review may even conclude that Supermax price was supported by sbb, therefore its price has been manipulated and should be disqualified from the inclusion. There may be other ways to do it that is more indirect, we never know.

@Geek2020 https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/fixing-ppe-shortage-should-top-...
22/11/2020 5:18 PM

I think Supermax will be a huge benefactor of this Biden Admin policy, bcos it is in an advantage position to assist US to quickly stockpile on the gloves and N95 masks. Now that it is currently building glove factories in US and having signed long term supply contracts with them, Supermax will be called upon to participate directly in solving this urgent need. Imagine the sudden jump in demand once Biden is officially the POTUS.

@eddie1884 New Straits Times: Covid-19 vaccine for Malaysia still a long way to go.
https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2020/11/643137/covid-19-vaccine-mal...

Those with some level of intelligence would know and realised by now vaccines are not a fixed it all
solution. They are gonna need time to be fully approved, accepted by ppl and implemented. There's gonna be lots of teething problems arising. The early stage phase 3 trials were designed to look and sound good to investors and general public. Even Dr Fauci has financial interest in Pfizer and Moderna, so he will swear by them. Things like serious side effects, death and complication due to toxicity and blunders in logistics handling of vaccines and lower than expected efficacy levels are just some issues that will complicate the success of vaccines. Subsequently, the question of further mutation rendering the vaccines useless remains unanswered until post vaccination period. Hope our Health DG will take all precautions before agreeing to allow any vaccines to be deployed for mass vaccination in Msia.

@goodjoe Good analysis @ToneeFa
21/11/2020 10:09 PM

@MatKoh @ToneeFa. Thanks for the great analysis. I wish there were more like you in this forum. :)
21/11/2020 10:43 PM

Thanks guys, there is nothing new to what I said, its just worth reminding ourselves of the facts and not to be swayed and confused by naysayers nor the market price action. Also the dark winter is coming and it will be really bad in Europe and US. Gloves gonna go back in focus soon...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/21/europe/germany-icu-beds-covid-intl/index.html

On top of that, by next QR, Supermax will be announcing more direct long term supply contracts with various Gov't that has oredi been signed apart from US,UK and Canada Gov'ts and more factories to be set up in those countries. Supermax will soon set itself apart from its local peers to be a global giant in glove and PPE to be reckon with.

Between now and then, Supermax will be performing super feats by achieving the highest EPS in the whole KLSE in FY21/FY22 of 0.40-0.60/quarter for the next 6 quarters at least, with PAT between RM 1.0B to RM1.6B/quarter, and such results will coincide with KLCI inclusion and SGX dual listing. With the above results and corporate exercise certainty, should Supermax price continue at RM 8 range? KYY has given a conservative TP of RM 26 for FY21. Vaccine approval when it happens will only add more profit on top of what is oredi a record earnings.

It important to bear in mind that post Covid pandemic, at best around end 2022/ early 2023 onwards, Supermax projected PAT will slowly stabilise to around RM 500m/quarter x4 = RM 2b per year x PE 18 = RM 13 post pandemic conservative fair value price as projected by freetospeak sifu. This price is only for sales of gloves and not including mask and contact lenses. Just conservatively add another 100m for that and it will be PAT RM 600m/quarter easily. Therefore, RM 13 should be the base TP of Supermax going forward.

Good point Agjl, gloves are in such shortage everyone is in queue to get their order.

@Primeinvestor Singapore minister

The minister also downplayed the idea of so-called “vaccine passports,” suggesting that free-flow travel for those vaccinated is unlikely. “You will still need testing because a vaccine is not foolproof,” he said. “Even if a vaccine is 90% effective, how do I know you’re not among the 10% that’s not affected?”

So vaccine still have to be tested, whoever test u need to wear gloves? Yes, demand how to fall?
20/11/2020 8:48 PM

There is a danger also also that vaccines may give a false sense of security, in that at this stage, no one knows if the virus could quickly mutate once the vaccines are deployed, to render the vaccines ineffective. That false sense of security may cause the societies to let their guard down, and the mutated virus would then spread like wild fire again. And suddenly the world is back to square one with many more infected.

@MoneyMakers @ToneeFa Not worried about the late sell-off, cautious investors are a sign of early bull wave..TAs are turning bullish but it could be short term from klci review, have to see next week..if can catch the bull wave early, then wont have to worry about the little pull-backs
20/11/2020 8:33 PM

Not at all worried as I m in this for the long term. Its a pleasure to be invested in the best performing counter in KLSE, the Champion performer in KLSE for 2021. Its quite certain the IBs are oredi back in the Big 4 at these lower price. Of course they won't just push up so the retailers can sell on them. Instead they will play up/down along the way to profit from the retailers, until the vaccine pictures become clearer, which I believe will give a picture of greater demand for gloves and that vaccine would not just solve the problem within a short term period but will take a longer time to end the pandemic.

@sagaraken guys Covid-19 is gonna change the medical/ pandemic landscape, countries might necessitates glove as minimum PPE for alll field healthcare personnel even after vaccine is introduced. Invest in business not in sentiments. Let all those haters drive down the price, but fundamentals wont lie.
20/11/2020 8:14 PM

Also very soon Supermax price will decouple from the Big 3 and will command its own premium valuation as a global glove/PPE conglomerate once its listed in SGX. FF will recognize it's OBM premium valuation due to the earning potential going forward compared to its peers' OEM biz.

@MoneyMakers Many still cautious, huge sell-off at the close while TG kept going
Side note - LKL directors topup huge amounts & none glove directors disposed
Indication that this bounce from oversold position is real?? Most gloves have been quite resilient past few days, consolidating in a steady range..long term trendline also holding strong
Really watch out for glove movement next week
20/11/2020 7:57 PM

The sell off at close is normal as investors lock in profit esp contra players. Also Supermax has been extremely volatile lately to the point retailers are constantly jittery with sudden downward movements. At the minute signs of weakness the retailers will start dumping. Many punters' balls in Supermax has seriously shrunk, and some have turned into pondans shrieking "sell" at any sign of weakness in price movement.

@Agjl The review will take today’s closing price and market cap right?
20/11/2020 7:35 PM

Monday closing price actually

@Agjl Warn3R...thanks my fren...currently rank 23. Kossan is at 30
20/11/2020 5:47 PM

Likely on Monday will be a strong push to close around 8.50. That will put Supermax firmly at 21th spot ahead of RHB and Hap Seng with 23B. At 8.08-8.20 Supermax still risk dropping to 26th spot if Dialog, PetDag and HLFG suddenly spike up. Genting may do a one day rally to secure a place too. So 8.50 will look good for Supermax entry into KLCI. So those still waiting to buy more tickets, early morning is best time at <8.20

Its great to see everyone celebrating oredi today. Things will only look brighter from today onwards since the IBs oredi finished accumulating at below lelong prices. Now can see the IBs research houses will be peddling the glove counter going forward.

@Agjl ToneeFa....is quietly watching
20/11/2020 10:21 AM

@Agjl ToneeFa....as u wish friday will be up but ur wish came a bit earlier. We are only wishing it to go up in the afternoon
20/11/2020 10:22 AM

Haha Agjl..no time to watch coz a bit busy today. Ya I thought maybe will shoot up afternoon. I don't have a crystal ball, but just have faith in the Supermax management that they will make sure it will
be a global giant in coming future. Regardless I ve oredi average down since earlier, now just waiting to collect the coming share dividend.
20/11/2020 11:31 AM

@Agjl ToneeFa...the closing is to be calculated based on tmrw or Next Mon closing price?
19/11/2020 9:53 PM

The next review of the FBM KLCI constituents is expected to be in November/December 2020, using share prices based on market close on Nov 23.

@kltower yeah bro toneefa, Stanley is very farsighted super entrepreneur, he has global vision and backup by a very good management team, once the factory finished setup in UK and US I think even hartalega also cannot challenge Supermax.

we r investing into a top class company, most of the bursa companies like myeg ijm gamuda xx bank etc etc are all kampung champion ( only focus local business highly depend on government projects ), naysayers cannot understand the different between "local" and "global".
19/11/2020 9:32 PM

Yeah agree. What has not registered in many ppl mind is in fact Supermax is world no 1 manufacturer cum distributor of gloves. No other glove co in the world can compare. in by 2023, assuming post Covid pandemic, the OEM manufacturers will face lower ASP bcos the distributors will press their price bcos of competition while the distributors will continue to enjoy good margins. But for Supermax, under OBM their margin would be less affected. Couple with direct priority supply to Gov't contracts, their bottom line would not be seriously affected.

@Agjl 23rd still not save. To close above 8 will be safe
19/11/2020 9:24 PM

Agree, therefore I think come Monday closing , should be above RM 8.0

Kossan maybe a good buy too or maybe goodbye , hard to say

Supermax is quite safe but still to be sure better for Stanley to push pass 8.0 by Monday closing

@Agjl Hey guys, based on 7.50 assuming auoer closed tnrw. What will be its ranking among the 30 assuming the 30 at today’s closing. Anyine? Appreciate it
19/11/2020 8:57 PM

Currently at 7.76 Supermax is at 23rd spot. At 7.50 it will be at 25th spot. At 8.0 it will go up to 21st spot. Assuming all other counters nearby don't change. Genting Bhd is at 29 spot and Kossan is at 30th spot. Got a feeling tmr and Monday should see competition amongst those at the border line to outdo each other. Genting may not want to lose out too.

@kltower yeah bro toneefa, for me I think the biggest news is biden announce big budget for PPE in January once he become new president of US.
19/11/2020 8:13 PM

Agree with you bro kltower, and Supermax will be a huge benefactor of that big budget. In the last announce they said " Meanwhile, the group said, the vulnerability to disruption of personal protective equipment (PPE) supply chains and over-dependence on imports is the primary concern of governments around the world.

“To address this major concern in countries where Supermax operates, we are reinvesting the earnings derived from our distribution centres into the respective countries in particular in the United States and the United Kingdom.

“We are now in the planning stages and will kick-start the US and UK projects in 1H2021 and target commission in stages starting 1H2022,” it said.

The capital expenditure earmarked for the US is US$300 million for phase 1 and US$250 million for phase 2, totalling US$550 million, and for the UK, it is £50 million. "

They will be considered as local manufacturer in US employing local workers there. Priority supply contracts will be given to them. Can't wait for them to announce in future their contract values from US alone.

@kltower Australia fund manager said inverter over react to vaccine news, glove at least bull run for another 2 to 3 years.
19/11/2020 7:07 PM

As more funds are buying back into the Big4 , especially Supermax, we will start to hear more positive write up on the glove counters and sentiment is starting to shift back to the massive earning visibility and how the vaccine is gonna create massive added demand and will last for a few more years, which is the true fact.

@MatKoh @glovefinish you better give your keyboard a rest or maybe stick your finger up your arse
19/11/2020 7:19 PM

Wonderful advice that need to be heeded.

@SpaceMarine index inclusion is imminent for supermax n kossan...
klci inclusion coming soon.
when it happens, foreign funds n institutions will collect for their portfolios.
pensions, insurance, banks, foreigners etc will only buy those who are in indexes n consistently makes money..
I believe this is why IBs are range bounding the glove companies shares...dun let them go too high. who is gonna to buy too high stocks when IBs promote to sell to the foreigners?
when supermax n kossan are included into the klci index...i think the price going up can no longer be so easily controlled dy.
could be the next catalyst to get the glove companies going bullish again
all the best hehe
hold n be patient..at least until christmas n see
19/11/2020 5:49 PM

Your analysis sounds logical. Probably the local funds and IBs are collecting back at this price around 7.50-8.00 bcos as they think its fair value to accumulate and wait for the FF to come in to help push up after the KLCI inclusion and subsequently the SGX dual listing. At current price it will definitely be very attractive for FF especially when next QR is announce in Jan. Very soon cannot get below RM 8 oredi.

@Sam_Singh_ chilvary @chilvary...yes i am trying to get attention..i can give you my mother to sleep..she is working in chow kit at rm 4 a shot..you can ask my nephew smallgugusingh
19/11/2020 4:20 PM

You are another bastard who bring suffering to your mother at child birth bcos you insisted to come out from the wrong hole. This forum is not suitable for you , if you insist on being in a glove counter forum pls go to Mah Sing , where there may be ppl there interest in a singh's mother.

There is no doubt why KYY is so confident with Supermax. The converging glove demand of on going Covid treatment , general SOP requirement and vaccination program will push ASP to even higher levels up to end 2021. That's why KYY said don.t be shock with Supermax achieving EPS 0.60 or PAT 1.6B for coming QR! and similarly art least for the next 4 QR.

@laychee KYY always spreads fake news to his own benefit.

https://nurse.org/articles/cdc-ok-with-gloveless-vaccines/
19/11/2020 11:02 AM

@Agjl Laychee....hello my fren....u are not wrong about the article and the article is genuine....but please..sass check the date my fren......its date 2018!!! Mamamiya!!! That was even before covid!!!
19/11/2020 11:29 AM

I think we need to put to rest the naysayers attempt to claim falsely that glove is not required for vaccination. Even my hairdressers have to wear full PPE set as part of the SOP standard and that is just to cut my hair. The current medical SOP guideline for medical workers is to suspect every patient is a potential carrier of Covid19, and their SOP is to avoid getting infected by patient and they become the agent to spread to other patients. I hv asked some doctor friends and they confirmed that in the past for certain vaccinations like flu and measles , it was optional to wear glove bcos the general population has obtained immunity oredi, but for Covid19 , the general population is still vulnerable. So he current SOP will require gloves to be used and the best practice is to change a new glove for every jabs, although some may wash hand/glove with soap after every jabs to reduce glove use.

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/11/18/moderna-and-pfizer-vaccine-may-signal-a-market-top/

For those dumb naysayers who still argue that you don't need gloves to do vaccination pls look at the picture in this site.

“Do not let the rich become richer and the poor remain poor, ” he said.

Best applied to the corrupted politicians. Windfall Tax should be first applied to them.

@mf Sinovac's Covid-19 vaccine induces quick immune response — study
Miyoung Kim & Roxanne Liu

November 18, 2020 09:34 am +08
18/11/2020 8:49 PM

China vaccine using deactivated virus vaccine will induce immune quickly but also easily rendered useless by virus physical mutation.

@RiverOfSilver Dia sudah grabbing many truckloads if Supermax at low already la
18/11/2020 9:08 PM

I suspect he was queuing at RM 7 and once it touched that, he sapu all the way up to RM 8. Then after he sat down and wrote a nice story will sipping his latte and smoking his cigar.

@emil Tomorrow All Glove counters limit down again??
Latest News!!!
Pfizer ends COVID-19 trial with 95% efficacy, to seek emergency-use authorization.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer/...
18/11/2020 8:19 PM

Vaccine news is now discounted oredi. Vaccine is coming regardless. But now market waiting to see ;
1. The acceptance level of the general population.
2. How fast the vaccine can be distributed and implemented ?
3. After that the real efficacy of the vaccine and its safety impact to the population.
4. How long the protection will last , how often have to revaccinated again to extend protection?
5. Any other complication that can arise which may jeopardize the confidence in vaccine?
6. What is the impact of vaccine on glove demand? how much more increase demand, and how long this increased demand will last?

Once the above factors are known, then we can better assess on the coming demand and fair value of glove share prices.

@Agjl ToneeFa...correct me if i m wrong. U said the review wil be 21/11 or 21/12? If it is 21/11 then its just ard the corner come this Friday
18/11/2020 8:33 PM

Sorry Agjl, I got confused with date, 23/11 is the closing share price used for review. Review process from 23/11 to 18/12 and on Monday 21/12 will be effective when market open for trading.
So looks like Friday may see a spike in the afternoon session. So tmr should buy on dips.

@Agjl Geek2020... super need to stay at 7.40 as a potential. Its price of RM7.8x is clearly not out of the woods yet
18/11/2020 7:24 PM

No worries Agjl, KLCI inclusion review is ard 21/11. Stanley will want to make sure Super has a good chance to pass the review. So folks, get ready for the push before 21/11 ....Lets huat together.

@Taipan My friends, its time to discuss the safety of our lives and that of our family and loved ones.

Sinowac and Cansino are based on deactivated virus , which is more conventional and safer for use, but less effective against virus mutation. Meaning even basic virus mutation may render it redundant. Whereas mRNA vaccine may have better chance of staying effective against basic mutation, unless the mutation happen at the RNA structure itself, which has lower probability in a short period of time. But bcos its a new technology with many uncertainties over its long term effect
on human, it may face serious rejection by many.

Assuming if the price stay at RM 8 for next 6 months , then the TPE is <5 with KLCI inclusion and SGX dual listing coming , does it make sense the price is RM 8 or lower in coming months?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/GlovesRally/2020-11-17-story-h153646...

KYY is hinting at EPS 0.60 for coming QR in Jan. Wow PAT of 1.6B.
Imagine next 2 quarters same PAT then the total EPS of last 2 quarters
+next 2 quarters = 0.3 +0.3+0.6+0.6 = 1.8
Base on PE 10 x 1.8 = RM 18. This is the fair value price for Supermax for FY21

@Sweetchocalates @Toneefa

Conned by AT???? Dont u find it odd that, in one of his articles in which he promoted AT, he said AT is an EXCEPTION to his stock picking rules when he was asked by numerous people that AT doesnt fit his "golden rules". I m sure that he knew about the consecutive lossesthat has been sustained by AT for years. Why he just realized that AT has been making losses? It doesnt add up.
17/11/2020 11:26 PM

I mean his sudden turnaround could be due to not getting something he has been promised. That article is like spitting at AT but with a calm looking face.

@i3lurker You mark these words
the word post covid does not exist

it took 200 years to eradicate smallpox after vaccine came out.
in just some years time all of us here will become plant fertilizer.
who will live past 200 years?

====>>>>"The funds are only concerned of drop in demand and ASP post Covid pandemic for all glove counters."
17/11/2020 11:25 PM

According to Dr Fauci, post Covid pandemic will eventually happen maybe after an effective vaccine reach 70% of the population, probably another 2-3 years from now. But Post Covid endemic will continue to breakout due to the virus mutation, and will continue to affect the society for many years to come.

@Sweetchocalates https://koonyewyin.com/2020/11/17/at-systematization-is-losing-support

Wtf. KYY IS SICK. Gg all those newbies who followed kyy.
17/11/2020 10:52 PM

Likely Uncle has been conned by AT