@Primeinvestor the report is taking notes from respective analysts that cover topglove, not topglove view, please see properly the note
12/11/2020 11:43 PM

Oh if like that lagi tak boleh pakai liao.

@supermxmx https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/12/coronavirus-dr-fauci-says-he-doubts-wh...

Gloves will be forever needed in hugh amount!!!!
12/11/2020 11:36 PM

Dr Fauci knows what he is talking about. I totally agree with him that Covid19 will continue to be with us. Even the original spanish flu H1N1 is now H5N8 version oredi. Each time they mutate, there will be another break out of infection here and there.

@ChaseBros https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/What-does-Pfizer-s-vacci...

**** Interesting to know that FLU VACCINE normally lasted about 4 MONTHS. **** Pfizer vaccine (even if able to achieve 90% efficacy though doubtful) is not a global solution. Even Oxford, Moderna, Sinopharm vaccines are proved to be effective, they will not solve the Covid pandemic for now, only lessen (hopefully). There wouldn't be sufficient vaccines going around if the efficacy wear down as fast as flu vaccine, and it is not practical to re-inoculate in less than a year.

Vaccine is our best hope for now but will not end the Covid pandemic. Hopefully will help to lessen the impact esp. during cold season.

Covid seemed to have been around for a long time but in fact only about a year or less. There are still many things that scientist do not understand. Whatever that we could out with in such a short time is already a miracle with the hope to bring the Covid under control to acceptable level but will not end it. Heighten hygiene SOP will be place for a long long time just like heighten airport security after the 9/11 incident.
12/11/2020 11:18 PM

Yeah possibly require 2-3 jabs if Covid19 vaccine becomes available. I think quite likely the highest global glove demand and usage will be from 3Q21 onwards to at least 2Q22. Within that 1 year, there will be overlapping of glove demand due to both treatment of infected cases and general SOP requirement and demand due to vaccination program worldwide.

@chivalry @Toneefa octogenarian hahah. Good one
12/11/2020 11:22 PM

:)

@Investeye Here is part of the TG annual report just released about the ASP :
Given supply constraints, higher raw materials’ costs will translate to higher ASPs. With the vaccine expected to be available mid-CY2021 as well as demand-supply balance unlikely to be fulfilled within the next year or so, ASPsare expected to rise until 1QCY2021 before levelling off and declining as supply catches up. ASPs are expected to normalised mid-CY2022 with average ASPs for nitrile and latex gloves to settle at USD30/1,000 pieces and USD22/1,000 pieces respectively.
12/11/2020 10:42 PM

Again, this report projection is assuming best case or miracle scenario for the vaccine progress, therefore its a conservative projection. Meaning the rise and levelling may stretch further if the vaccines were to face delay later due to failure at larger population trial.

@
GoldenHarvest1 Including hyping up erroneous data & inaccurate testing results
12/11/2020 10:58 PM

@GoldenHarvest1 Even to the extent of producing & then hawking toxic medicine that in not a few cases ends up harming & killing guys faster than the actual disease itself
12/11/2020 10:58 PM

I concur with you. In the larger trial involving millions of ppl, quite likely there will be multiple deaths occurring , which will strike fear into many ppl, and many may end up having fear about getting vaccinated.

@Agjl Japan announced third wave. Italy announced pressing moment. I just dun see how a speed up vaccines can solve all this??? And how the world will stop using ppe or not stock up?? And someone says its a sunset business better still? Brilliant mind!!!
12/11/2020 10:20 PM

I m clear that the vaccine scenario is not as simple and straight forward as its being made out to be. Even if a safe and effective vaccine were to be proclaimed by 3Q21, what about protection from different strains of the virus? What if the virus mutate further in some of the participants and become immune to the vaccine antibody? There's so many uncertainties to face along the way.

@AnchoviesswimwithSha Actually, viruses can go away on their own. Just look at SARS. The major outbreak lasted 8 months and ended even tho no vaccine was found. The worst pandemic ever - Black Death has also gone by its own.

Let's hope we can get through this tough moment together!
12/11/2020 10:15 PM

The best guide is the Spanish flu, from 1918-1920 ( 3 years) over 4 waves infected 1/3 of world population before it faded away. It was H1N1, the novel virus then. World population was 1.5b and it was estimated 500 million worldwide was infected ard 50 million ppl died or 10% of those infected Today we have close to 8b population. It may take 5 years on its own to fade away after infecting 1/3 of the world population and maybe killing about 260 million ppl.

@kltower SOUTH KOREA has recorded 101 deaths, most of whom were elderly, after they received seasonal flu vaccines in the country's free vaccination programme.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nst.com.my/amp/world/region/2020/11/6...
12/11/2020 10:09 PM

Probably most of the Covid19 trial participants are young and strong ppl at the phase 3 trial part 1. Once this stage test show it to be relatively safe, the next stage only they will give to the more elderly participants. So the next stage which involve larger participants into the millions and with more elderly ppl may not be so easy to pass thru. Expect lots of issues to pop up. But if all went well then better thank God bcos that would be a miracle. So if a miracle happens, which would be the best case, then a safe and effective vaccine for the mass inoculation can be proclaimed. That should be in 3Q21 as I mentioned before. But then availability and logistic of delivery can still be many months before 70% of the population can get them.

@spicyketchup Ah.. you are so right. I feel so much at ease now that you pointed out this sneaky article.
Pffft.
Tmrw glove will be green. Sneeaky ppl trying to cause panic
.12/11/2020 10:08 PM

Yeah, I realised the article was tricky and misleading. Glad can provide some clarity to you ppl.

I m starting to believe that all these vaccine companies management knows there is no way a safe an effective vaccine can be produced this fast. But they are not gonna say that openly bcos alot of money can be made from their share spike. So they will all play along and take turn to make money by sensationalizing their vaccine progress, to only later backtrack or qualify their findings. They all try to push their luck as far as they can, but FDA would not be fooled by them. Whereas for Chinese or Russian vaccines, their regulatory approval is not reliable. So we will never know how cover up will happen in their testing process.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 12): AmInvestment Bank believes that while glove demand will stay stable post-Covid-19 pandemic, average selling prices (ASPs) will drop as there will no longer be a rush for gloves.

“We reckon that ASP will stabilise at a higher level than pre-pandemic level due to the broader usage of gloves,” it said in a note on Top Glove Corp Bhd today..../.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's a lot of misunderstanding of this article , where ppl thought by next year the ASP will start to come down. The keyword here is post-Covid19 pandemic. So when is this post-Covid19 pandemic gonna happen? In 2021? My posting on the vaccine scenario shows that it cannot end in 2021. Best case scenario probably 3Q22 or well into 2023.

Likely scenario in first half of 2021 , even if some vaccines become available, they will just be an extended trial involving large numbers of ppl. Don't think any gov't will suddenly allow all their population to be inoculated. Likely scenario is if all goes well, even for Malaysia, total population inoculation will happen only after 3Q21 and well into 2022, depending on the availability.

US FDA approval under Biden will be more reliable. Whereas for China regulatory approval, it is less transparent and unreliable.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/04/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/chinese-coronavirus-vaccine-safety/

DJker89 My Nick ending 89 doesn't mean I'm 31 yeahhh.
Very bad assumption dude. Dangerous hor in investment.
12/11/2020 8:59 PM

So you want us to believe you are an octagenarian?

Extract from a medical article:
How long is each clinical trial phase?
Phase 1 trials typically last several months, but less than a year. Because these trials test treatments for safety, not for effectiveness, they may only enroll healthy volunteers.

Around 70% of potential new drugs pass Phase 1 and enter Phase 2, which continues to measure safety, while looking at how effective the treatment is, too. Phase 2 trials recruit up to several hundred patients with the condition to take part. This phase typically lasts several months to two years

Just 33% of drugs make it past Phase 2 and into Phase 3, which tests the potential treatment in the largest number of people. This phase measures both safety and effectiveness with many volunteers, sometimes thousands. Phase 3 trials last from one to three years.

After Phase 3, a pharmaceutical company may submit a New Drug Application (NDA) for the treatment to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA then reviews results from all stages of the trial to determine whether it will approve the drug and allow the pharmaceutical company to begin marketing it to the public.

Following approval, a treatment may enter Phase 4, also known as a post-marketing trial. Patients are monitored for long-term side effects of the treatment that go beyond the time frame of the other phases.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Take note: Phase 3 trials normally last from one to three years. Currently most vaccine candidates are taking about 3-5 months to complete to complete this phase. For Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, they have just completed their trial involving 30-40 thousand of ppl. Even if they achieve some level of success at this stage, I really doubt that FDA will from here suddenly allow them to produce even up to 50-100 miliion doses to be distributed for mass inoculation. The risk is too high that some section of the population may develop serious problems or even die. Likely they will be asked to maybe inoculate up to a few million ppl first and monitor them for the next 6 months or so. Only if this next trial is a great success that they will then be allowed to do total population inoculation. That's why the Dr Gottlieb said the in the best case scenario, vaccine will become available to the mass only by 3Q21. Take note of the best case scenario. There will likely to be some hiccups along the way.

@chivalry @Tooneefa, cant time the market! but always observe the surrounding..when people pressure to sell that is when you..."?"
12/11/2020 3:32 PM

Yes , noticed that , all the trolls suddenly appear out of nowhere. But seriously, sometimes its easy to forget that this company will be the champion of KLSE going into FY21, with record breaking profit margin. Will have the highest EPS in KLSE for FY21 and maybe even FY22.

The fact that LWC oredi SBB on TG, means that will signal the rock bottom price for TG and Supermax for now. But Harta may face more selling pressure bcos TPE is still relatively too high.

@chivalry You look at the number of buyer and sellers you will know. Playing among themselves.
12/11/2020 3:13 PM

My view is current price is oredi rock bottom. Of course they can still push down further but there is risk of SBB by Stanley.

@DJoker89
hahahahahh
bro please la
no need step on other peers for your buy call.
12/11/2020 3:03 PM

The guy is too much overweight, and weighing down on everybody. He has oredi lost some weight, but he will need to lose further. Just watch.

@chivalry @Tooneefa it just shows how desperate can they be. They cant make profit out from it at the moment when there are no movement.

You know like the case in HK development. Scare tactics to chase people out from the premise when people dont want to sell.

I urge them to bring in the storm if they can. Else dont bother
12/11/2020 3:08 PM

Ya, I know what they are up to, I m just playing along with their game :)

@EdwinYap86 Sohem Tonee lol, mean start from now you dumba$s

I bought Supermx since March, know what's talking about

btw thanks for catching my falling knife at RM9.5

Without you all dummy IB and FM can't cash out
12/11/2020 2:51 PM

Boy, the glove party is over for you , why are you still here? I really don't understand these f@#$kers , who keep saying the glove party is over but keep hanging around and still gulping on the beers.

I believe Harta need to shed more weight before the rest can move up. Harta is 10Kg overweight. Whereas Supermax is 5Kg underweight. I think the best reconciliation is as below:
TG - 10Kg TPE 26
SPM - 12KG TPE 17
Harta - 12KG TPE 40
Kossan - 7KG TPE 15

This should be the lineup going into FY21. That means Harta still have to slowly lose 3 more KG

@EdwinYap86 Dear Danny...

Genting got everyday drop 1 to 2%?
Goodluck
12/11/2020 2:36 PM

You are either a newbie or pretending to be one. Genting has dropped so much LKT almost lost his underwear. Pls don't talk here if you don't understand what is going on.

@DJoker89 this is the difference between the good and bad
i will never enforce or suggest ppl with other counter.
let's talk to the point if you have any. Diam diam to see newbie die in this counter is definitely a karma
12/11/2020 2:22 PM

Hahahaha

@EdwinYap86 No need multiple accounts when you have many people in market thinking the same thing:

GLOVES PARTY IS OVER
12/11/2020 2:19 PM

We hope those that think the glove party is over should just leave the party now ( since its over) and go join the vaccine party next door. And on the way out pls dump your party ticket at the exit point. Thank you

@Giant Panda no amount of saliva is going to change the naysayer mind. You have given enough facts and info to prove the worth of Supermax.

The current TPE is:
TG TPE = 20 - 7.73
SPM TPE = 13 - 8.77
Harta TPE = 51 - 15.30
Kossan TPE = 14 - 6.57

I think from the above is clear where is the problem. TG,SPM and Kossan are coming into alignment. SPM should later adjust to 20, closer to TG as both should be seen at par with each other in terms of potential and performance in FY21. Kossan is just about right. But Harta is out of line by a mile. Probably Harta TPE should have been 17 at current stage. I believe many big funds have overloaded on Harta due to the high TP accorded, a mistake in overvaluation by the research houses earlier and the wide disparity has become difficult to reconcile without losing too much money for the IBs and major funds. Whereas Supermax was under weight in their portfolio. So I think the current challenge is how to get the above to the correct valuation as below:
TG TPE = 20 - 7.73
SPM TPE = 20 - 13.78
Harta TPE = 18 - 5.31
Kossan TPE = 14 - 6.57

Above should have been the starting line moving into FY21.
From the latest Qr results , obviously EPS wise, Harta has underperformed, way below expectation compared to its peers, but was accorded very high TP causing big funds to have invested a lot due to its KLCI component status. So how to make right? Its not an easy problem to solve without losing lots of money, therefore the current limbo. And we the bilis are wondering wtf is going on.

@param1 come on djoker you hard core superman supporter turned to the dark side ..why lol
12/11/2020 11:56 AM

Haha Djoker89 has become DarthJoker89.

@SaveMsiaFromPHGov We're watching Trump's bankruptcy (yet another one) unfold

Looks like he cannot afford to step down, so he may be willing to take bigger risks in order to hang on to power.

@ProsperousRealm The best that trump can do is lick his battle wounds this time around & prepare himself for a repeat republican candidacy in 2024
11/11/2020 8:51 PM

He is maneuvering himself into a dangerous path at the moment. US democracy is being threatened now. If he succeed in controlling the Pentagon, he may dare to move to the next level.

@Agjl @EdwinYap...since u r the only one in this forum to "use the organ above ur head to think" , can u kindly tell us all the novice here .....at what price we have to run??? And after run shld we come back? And if come back at what price? Please letbus know what jia the answer" of the orgam that above your head is thinking now?

11/11/2020 6:06 PM

Edwin, there is no organ above ur head la. Maybe you only think with the organ above ur balls.

The US election and power transition issue is still not over yet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics/pentagon-policy-official-resigns/index.html

Trump trying to set up military rule...

@Zuliana Bank... buy Public lah,
Construction... buy Gamuda lah.
Property... buy Mah Sing lah...
Follow me there... invest at least 1 year.
You all will thanks me for these advice.

This Zuliana >>>>> Vanbasten

@Bearrider Sold all at 8.90 , next destination at AT
11/11/2020 4:43 PM

You take a bit here but will give a lot there.

@staedy so what to do now? run or wait?
11/11/2020 4:40 PM

just stay steady for 6 months

@freetospeak when kyy is out of super...u know time is ripe...
11/11/2020 4:39 PM

Haha...takes a sifu to know another...

@johnny cash PLAY OF GLOVES STILL THERE

NO WORRIES GUYS
11/11/2020 4:29 PM

Building up to the next bull run, once they have finished with rebalancing the portfolios. Then they can call a spade a spade. Then they will accord Supermax with a better TP and valuation to reflect its true value. After that only the bull will be released from the kandang.

@DJoker89 Be real guys,
Be it TG or supermx or harta, how undervalued it is now still doesn't attract retailer at this moment after stupid vaccine news

All sideline , IB is having their own game now in glove. FF will never come to bursa
11/11/2020 3:26 PM

I think the Big4 cannot push forward for now bcos of huge disparity of valuation between the Big3 with Supermax. It looks like the rebalancing is taking place but very slowly and subtly, as the IBs do not want to create an exodus of investors rushing to Supermax. At the same time they are slowly and subtly accumulating Supermax as low price as possible. If you study the recent price movements of the Big4 , you will see the pattern supports my theory.

@Condom004 Worst healthcare stock
09/11/2020 3:37 PM

Very true. If I invested in AT what I put into Bcmall, now i oredi fatt tatt

@RJ87 The grand finaleeeeeeeee...
U know where liao....just dunno when...hahhahaha

Haha just hope the mothership will fly to the final frontier soon

Hopefully can touch 8.50 again this afternoon. Pls those who think the glove party is over pls leave the room and dump your tickets an the exit door. Thank you

Fintec is the mothership carrying the big wok , always goreng the other battleships. When is mothership herself going to fly?

Its rotational play on penny stock , so other counters have to take a break today.

Finally Fintec start its engine , hopefully can catch up with AT soon.

@EdwinYap86 Dear Agjl
Market determines the price, right not, all future profits of gloves has been taken into account, no more surprises, even if it gave RM1B quarter profit next the price will either float or drop (as proven since every QR out, stock drop, sell on news). This is the new norm, don't use your old fashion way of FA to try and gauge this retail heavy market now. What PE*EPS blah blah blah, there's no surprise anymore. While everyone is saying TP 12, 15, 20 blah blah blah, it doesn't matter because all retail's thinking the same : "I will run before it hits TP" HOW?!

I don't believe the reusable gloves, but you can't deny the gloves party is over already. Wake up before too late
11/11/2020 1:50 PM

Yes the party is over for you here. Please go to vaccine counter and join the on going party there.

@Sinoboy Perhaps it's true that glove party is over. Even if it reaches rm10 would be wishful thinking. Will have to seriously consider cutting loose now sigh.
This is a very painful decision
11/11/2020 2:11 PM

I m still waiting at 8.50 Pls throw now and I will try to catch it.

@Zuliana China finally in the process to knock out the dominance of Msia big 4 gloves companies.

I am scared many no time to run...
11/11/2020 1:11 PM

I don't think there's any medical authority willing to certify such products at this stage as they will face massive legal liabilities. Every time there is infection caused by the reusable gloves, the victim can sue them too.

@Zuliana I don’t mean single use gloves—> being converted to reusable gloves.
That’s wrong use of single use gloves.

What I mean is invention of new revolutionary reusable gloves from the design to manufacturing of new truly reusable medical gloves ...

China cuts the single use gloves quite soon...
SOON, single use medical gloves days are numbered...
BEWARE...
11/11/2020 12:58 PM

The method and system of sterilization can work if carried out properly. But no body can guarantee on human error or carelessness. Out of 100 workers , you only need 1 worker to be half past 6 or tidak apa attitude to create a super spreader situation.