Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 13:22 | Report Abuse

The above article is rubbish loh....!!
He quoted regional refinery like Japan & india Pe 7x....say those are cheaper than HRC Pe 2x to 3x ah ??

And assuming u use PE 7x for HRC...based on EPS rm 2.00....HRC should trade Rm 14.00 loh....!!

If u take KYY EPS of Rm 3.25...then HRC should trade Rm 22.00....!!

So where got overvalue leh ?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 13:23 | Report Abuse

Posted by vinc3362 > Aug 4, 2017 01:16 PM | Report Abuse

Wow...smarttrader2020 gave 4 examples of refinery with average PE of 6.58 and says Hengyuan have no more upside,..............

So if we assume HRC 2017 EPS at RM2 ( 1st QR already 93sen) , RM2 x 6.58 is RM 13.16

No more upside meh!!!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 13:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:27 | Report Abuse

The above article is rubbish loh....!!
He quoted regional refinery like Japan & india Pe 7x....say those are cheaper than HRC Pe 2x to 3x ah ??

And assuming u use PE 7x for HRC...based on EPS rm 2.00....HRC should trade Rm 14.00 loh....!!

If u take KYY EPS of Rm 3.25...then HRC should trade Rm 22.00....!!

So where got overvalue leh ?

I WAS LAUGHING READING THIS. VERY TRUE LOH. PE OF HENGYUAN EVEN FOR PRICE NOW IS LOW! COMPARED TO REGION AS MENTIONED.

Good article loh, give me more idea of regional range in term P/E

So I can safely apply P/E 7 loh.

Posted by probability > 2017-08-04 13:30 | Report Abuse

wonder what happens if he brings in PE of Petron corp philippines and Reliance india...he he

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 13:36 | Report Abuse

I will be more terror if he uses Pet Dag PE 24x loh...!!

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:41 | Report Abuse

Raider too conservative loh

EPS hengyuan estimated RM3 mah. so RM3xP.E-7=RM21 loh. Very near my estimation of RM18 loh. RM10 margin stock LOH!

EPS PEtronm estimated RM1.60 loh. P/E=7=RM11.20 loh. But PetronM got petrol station business, deserve higher P/E loh. If P/E is 10=RM16 loh.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-08-04 13:42 | Report Abuse

Good sharing from smart2020 ; meaning to say Hengyuan poise to surge upward to fill the gap as it still at less than x 5 P.e :)

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:44 | Report Abuse

MY TP

PETRONM-12 (54%)
HENGYUAN-18 (218%)

BELIEVE IT OR NOT!

HAHAHAH

Above is my earlier projection loh.SEE? near to the estimation of the article of P/E 7 loh!

Posted by John Lu > 2017-08-04 13:44 | Report Abuse

Good analysis...Regional average PE 7

Paperplane sifu TP RM18 only with PE less than 7. Time to sialang into HYC

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:44 | Report Abuse

and my estimation alredi conservative loh, prior to JUMP in crack spread loh

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 13:45 | Report Abuse

smart2020 is very smart loh! All facts and risk are real mah! why all these salesman cum promoters scrambling to look for their balls? The risk of it collapsing is unavoidable! Goreng up so high also must go down hard loh!

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:45 | Report Abuse

tht's before the recent JUMP in spread loh. So anyway it is conservative already and I can sleep well with my money loh

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 13:46 | Report Abuse

Nothing more than a bunch of losers goreng up share price only mah! Retailers mati first LMAO

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:47 | Report Abuse

For example, let’s look at (1) Mangalore refinery in India, the lowest market cap in India, of RM15.0 billion, its PER only at 6.5x with ROE of 46%.


• Another example, (2) Hindustan Petroleum with RM40.7 billion market cap, its PER only at 7.4x and ROE of 43%.


• Last example in Japan, (3) JXTG holdings Inc with market cap of RM65.8 b billion, its PER only 7.7x,


• while (4) Idemitsu Kossan Co LT with market cap of RM21.0 billion, its PER only 4.7x.



SEE above?
Indian lousy refinery also deserve P/E so high loh. Not to forget world class of Shell and now Hengyuan loh!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 13:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:48 | Report Abuse

mostly P/E 6-7 range loh! PetronM and Hengyuan need to catch up loh!

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-08-04 13:48 | Report Abuse

apu....puc not overvalued.....

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 13:50 | Report Abuse

Everything must come to an end loh! Bedtime story must end.....LMAO

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 13:56 | Report Abuse

just beginning only you afraid and shaking. End of game is when Electronic cars come to market in big wave loh!

And that faster i see only 2020 loh, consider SUPER DUPER fast liao loh.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2017-08-04 14:03 | Report Abuse

big cap pe vs small cap pe

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 14:09 | Report Abuse

Finish kaput loh! Both also expensive counters now mah! compared to regional peers hahhaha

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 14:10 | Report Abuse

Nah! That is why loh....i3 admin only ban and delete losers like pinkyplane hahahaha LMAO

Posted by soojinhou > 2017-08-04 14:14 | Report Abuse

For HengYuan, at this price, FCF/EV (before working capital) is 41%. That means if they can maintain the same profitability, the company can generate enough cash to buy the entire company in 2.5 years time. Similarly, for Petron, FCF/market cap is around 11%. Maybe you can find another company in Bursa that can boast of FCF/EV of 41%. None come close.

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 14:18 | Report Abuse

KYY is ready to moving to other counters loh...!! What are u guys waiting for? To get stuck still? Don't say I don't warn u guys! Hahahahaha

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 14:19 | Report Abuse

yeah! FCF , my favourite.

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 14:22 | Report Abuse

Who cares? Dumping and moving on loh..!! Left pinkyplane play dumb dumb but no one knows how low and weak the share price will be dumped..!! Hahahaha LMAO

Posted by cuticuti > 2017-08-04 14:23 | Report Abuse

So HRC trading at 4.6 PE compared to regional markets of PE 7x as shown examples above is high?

Posted by CKCS > 2017-08-04 14:25 | Report Abuse

KYY posted already mah! U guys still so stupid believing it run forever up?

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/129223.jsp

He's basically asking u to buy loh...!! What signal is this leh...?! Hahahaha LMAO

Posted by Ariff Shah > 2017-08-04 14:29 | Report Abuse

Thank you

Posted by Bing Feng Tan > 2017-08-04 14:47 | Report Abuse

sour grapes la lol

Posted by hanhui1991 > 2017-08-04 15:19 | Report Abuse

basically all the oil counter suffered heavy fall in their share price in the past few year...now only their value emerge

Posted by hissyu2 > 2017-08-04 15:38 | Report Abuse

wah~~ sifu!! thanks for telling us the hidden truth behind... kamxia banyak~~

Posted by hissyu2 > 2017-08-04 15:40 | Report Abuse

soojinhou For HengYuan, at this price, FCF/EV (before working capital) is 41%. That means if they can maintain the same profitability, the company can generate enough cash to buy the entire company in 2.5 years time. Similarly, for Petron, FCF/market cap is around 11%. Maybe you can find another company in Bursa that can boast of FCF/EV of 41%. None come close.

after the rally, maybe kurang a bit liao~~ haha~~ maybe need 3 years >.<... it is too long for smartrader2020, i think~~ lol

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2017-08-04 15:42 | Report Abuse

whether overvalue or otherwise is immaterial. what's matter is our risk appetide ! a counter may be overvalued but the price still trend up. He or she who buys still has the price advantage lock in. just monitor closely. my personal view on the above article.

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-04 16:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-04 16:17 | Report Abuse

3iii has been a long term investors on pet dag, 4 yrs ago this share is around Rm 20 plus today it is the same mah...!!

When raider promoted Petron and HRC at low price this 3iii is the 1st to bad mouthed raider loh...!!

Why leh ?
Bcos this 3iii feel sore bcos raider says petdag is overvalue mah..!!

Raider just tell the truth mah, Petdag at PE 24x obviously it is overvalue mah....!!

There is no way about it mah...!!

Just imagine HRC pe 24x....it price will be Rm 44 to rm 72 loh...!!

Can u all see the obvious leh ?

Posted by 3iii > 2017-08-04 16:33 | Report Abuse

Income Statement

Rev

2012 15.1b
2013 14.7b
2014 14.3b
2015 9.1b
2016 8.4b
ttm 9.4b



PBT

2012 (122m)
2013 (223m)
2014 (1,223m)
2015 353m
2016 335m
ttm 512m


PAT

2012 (95m)
2013 (156m)
2014 (1189m)
2015 352m (Tax paid 1m)
2016 225m (Tax paid 0m)
ttm 513m


ttm-EPS RM 1.71


2016
Cash Flow

Net income 335.3m
D&A 195.3m
Net Operating Cash Flow (43.6m)

Capex (27.5m)

Dividend 0

FCF ((71.1m)


This company has been profitable the last 2 years, due to higher price of crack (better profit margin).

However, refining business is capital intensive and earnings are volatile.

As guided by the company, refining margins are expected to remain uncertain.



Red flags:

Volatile earnings, even the last 4 quarters, 1 qtr was in the red.

Its capital expenditure in recent 2 years are so much less than its Depreciation and amortization charges.

How much more will they need to spend to keep their business going efficiently?

Despite showing positive earnings, its FCF is anaemic or negative; still using financing from lenders.

No dividends. Unlikely to pay dividends soon either.

No tax paid the last 2 financial year.

A challenging business at best, a gruesome business to be in.

Posted by Explode > 2017-08-04 17:14 | Report Abuse

sour grapes not nice to eat lah.... you keep posting these rubbish articles, also cant stop the uptrend really which to reflect their actual value, especially coming soon quarter result. listen to me, dont waste the time. kid

Posted by Larrytrader > 2017-08-04 19:12 | Report Abuse

I detected a sour grape here writing an article

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 19:24 | Report Abuse

I guess he put wrong title

Posted by gohku > 2017-08-04 19:34 | Report Abuse

I find many sifu in i3 for example like raider, probability, paperlane, otb and Koonyewyin, all had contributed to the success of Hengyuan & its good share price run up.

I remember, it was sifu raider who alerted me from his posting recommendation, when it was Rm 2.00 about 8 months back.
It is because of his posting, i invested my savings in Hengyuan & it never disappointed me ever since.

Then probability taught me the business aspect of refinery, that i will never forget. The importance of crack spreads and crude oil prices.

Paperlane taught me the importance of confident in my investment and to think big.

Mr Koon and Mr OTB taught me the art of sailang, when the stock is undervalue like when it has very low pe 2x to 3x and the potential of stocks with very good earnings prospect.

I am very thankful to all these sifu for helping me to make money in hengyuan. Without them, i could not be successful.

Finally i am grateful to i3investors for providing the platform.
I hope all the sifu recommendation of dumb dumb hold will on Hengyuan will bring further success going forward.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 19:42 | Report Abuse

Yes. We should be thankful on what we earn and what we have. I always ask ppl to do their own donation,etc. That's what he get from society and let's give back some to help those in need.

Finally. I am not sifu. I am sifut......Icon is sifu. Call him sifu, not me. Me too far away from it.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2017-08-04 19:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-04 20:01 | Report Abuse

yes, many ppl are telling lies in the hope of buying cheap!!! by the mth end, 9? then they will tell more lies !!!!! kikiki

Posted by Explode > 2017-08-04 20:25 | Report Abuse

laugh die me.

Posted by paperplane > 2017-08-04 22:42 | Report Abuse

Ckcs low class loh. Dun want buy, after up so many want to lure ppl sell. And use others name and quote KYY etc. I suggest admin to ban him.

Posted by nekosan > 2017-08-04 22:42 | Report Abuse

Another pe eps king

Posted by Axelrod > 2017-08-04 22:47 | Report Abuse

KYY, Icon and OTB say buy then close eyes buy la..just go all in, sell your house and all your clothes just buy ok? 300% upside..dont believe? disagree? means you missed the boat lor..sour grapes lor..dont know how to analyse lor

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-08-04 22:49 | Report Abuse

i dunno. my logic is simple. ROE > 40%, PE < 5. Or you want PUC?