Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-31 12:48 | Report Abuse

strong uptrending stock like HRC...meaning brightsmart will be just salivating at the higher n higher pricing!!!! kikikiki

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-31 12:51 | Report Abuse

musangking...I am a trader, I don't care about spreads unless it is about spread legs.


dead cat bounce is not easy to capitalise, have to be very accurate.

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-31 12:58 | Report Abuse

bottomline, do u have this stock?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-08-31 12:59 | Report Abuse

GENERAL RAIDER SPECIAL ADVICE LOH...!!
IF U R A TRADER U BETTER STEP ASIDE LOH...!!

THE TRADING MARGIN IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH HIGHER TRADING RISK MAH..!!

FOR EXAMPLE LAST WEEK SELLOFF...IF U MANAGE TO BUY HRC FOR RM 7.08 LOW ANS SELL IT AT RM 7.46....UR PROFIT MARGIN AT RM 0.4 OR 5.6% ONLY LOH...!!

WHY WASTE TIME HERE ??

HRC IS FOR LONGER TERM INVESTOR WITH TP RM 15.00 WITH HOLDING POWER OF 1 YR LOH...!!

FOR TRADER U PROBABLY GET BETTER RETURN ELSE WHERE LOH...!!

NO NEED SQUAT AT HRC THREAD LOH...!!


Posted by brightsmart > Aug 31, 2017 12:51 PM | Report Abuse

musangking...I am a trader, I don't care about spreads unless it is about spread legs.

dead cat bounce is not easy to capitalise, have to be very accurate.

Posted by probability > 2017-08-31 13:19 | Report Abuse

ya old plant produce charcoal..new plant produce h2 plasma..

careful with new car engine...will explode after 10km

Posted by probability > 2017-08-31 13:21 | Report Abuse

...if u use old plant fuel

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 13:22 | Report Abuse

Astute traders sure go in already
Self proclaimed Combo traders skewed to FA dare not go in

Astute trader see clearly HRC powerup stock
With " brightsmarts TA vision"

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-31 13:25 | Report Abuse

musang...the truth and nothing but the truth...I have bought HRC between $ 6 and $ 7 and sold between $ 8 and $ 8 .60.....


still laughing at all the idiot about spreads and Q 2 and now Q3 results........

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-08-31 13:28 | Report Abuse

then congrats at your winnings!!! kikikiki

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 13:34 | Report Abuse

I go in below 6, sold off above 8, bought back below 7.08..

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 13:35 | Report Abuse

With brightsmarts TA vision..hahaha

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2017-08-31 13:53 | Report Abuse

Probability, here are the 2 hypothesis:

1. Either you are right, the market has yet to catch up on the new reality and multiple expansion from current PE is waiting to happen, and there's an arbitrage opportunity or perhaps long-term opportunity

2. Or the market is right, that all future cash flows discounted back to present value is more or less equal to current valuation despite current massive cash flow generation.

Posted by brightsmart > 2017-08-31 14:08 | Report Abuse

There is not much fundamental value in this stock because they will not share any thing with the minority shareholders. Sharing with Malaysian public shareholders is not in their genes and not the reason they are in Malaysia.

Further, not everyday is a Sunday......looking at the track record for last 10 years, it has to be an alignment of stars and every thing aligns perfectly to report 93 sen EPS. It is impossible to predict its earnings with any precision, and no IB analyst covers this stock because the wild fluctuations scares each and every IB analysts....only amateur analysts are predicting spreads and earnings in this stock........

On top of that, 2018 is a bad year for them due to upgrading works, and 2019, the Rapids new modern refinery is ready and will eat them for lunch....the reason why Shell wants out.

Posted by cheoky > 2017-08-31 14:17 | Report Abuse

Those payable is filling up your cash flow lo. U need minus out. If cash flow is the criteria, might as well go to Malakoff. Availability charge n capacity charge is more reliable or crack spread? Usd refinery shut down also reduce crude oil demands. If crude oil drop, HRC needs report stock loss too... ask chinaman n see. Think of advantages he will take. Maybe china doll is taking advantage of HRC stock price n good us news.

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 14:21 | Report Abuse

Brightsmarts "self proclaimed trader" sold off stock already,

Missed buyin again at 7.03

HRC rebounded from 7.03, close at 7.52.

Now cursing n hissing hoping to buy HRC at lower price

Now become "FA broadcaster"

Unfortunately brightsmarts no have " brightsmarts TA" vision..hahaha

Will end up buying HRC at higher price..hahahaha

Posted by nekosan > 2017-08-31 14:23 | Report Abuse

I think hengyuan will be same as petronm 2 years ago. which there is one quarter announce a bad result andbut now is 8.5everyone sell. it.

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 14:23 | Report Abuse

Missed buy in at 7.03??
Dun worri..just Buy in higher n sell higher..... Hahahaha

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 14:31 | Report Abuse

If not ..u miss this power up stock run up 
HRC is Ferrari stock 

If u got brightsmarts TA vision, u would have bought in already

But u got max fear during sell down 

So u r not that brightsmarts nor u have brightsmarts TA vision

Just don't become dimsmarts..hahahaha

Posted by Powerstock > 2017-08-31 14:33 | Report Abuse

When Ferrari HRC power up higher n higher..hahahaha

Posted by probability > 2017-08-31 21:34 | Report Abuse

Let us all pray for HRC price to collapse when market opens.... i sincerely from my heart encourage all to come out with negative comments... and better still an article to convince all the risks and how misled we are on HRC.

Thank you

Posted by SALAM > 2017-08-31 23:50 | Report Abuse

For the past 2 years, HRC had consistently produced weakest result in the 3rd Q. This year ???

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 00:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by SALAM > Aug 31, 2017 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

For the past 2 years, HRC had consistently produced weakest result in the 3rd Q. This year ???

ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS LOH....!!

THE CURRENT ROLLING eps OF HRC IS RM 1.63 PA

COMPRISES OF

Q2 JUNE 2017.......EPS RM 0.28
Q1 MARCH 2017......EPS RM 0.93
Q4 DEC 2016........EPS RM 0.69
Q3 SEPT 2016.......EPS (RM 0.27}

SUPPOSE GOING FWD;

Q3 SEPT 2017......EPS RM O.30 ( WHICH RAIDER THINK UNLIKELY SHOULD BE HIGHER} ANYWAY IF TAKE THIS CONSERVATIVE STANCE...!!

THE ROLLING EPS BASED ON INCORPORATION OF SEPT 2017 Q3 RM 0.30 WILL BE;
EPS............................RM 2.20 PA.

WITH EPS OF RM 0.30 IN SEPT 2017 HRC WILL REGISTERED RECORD HISTORICAL PROFIT OF RM 2.20 COMPARE TO CURRENT ROLLING EPS OF RM 1.63 LOH...!!

IF BASED ON PE 6X AND EPS RM 2.20 HRC WILL BE VALUED RM 13.20 LOH..!!

U SHOULD EXPECT HRC SHARE PRICE WILL FLY BY NOV 2017 LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 00:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by SALAM > Aug 31, 2017 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

For the past 2 years, HRC had consistently produced weakest result in the 3rd Q. This year ???

ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS LOH....!!

THE CURRENT ROLLING eps OF HRC IS RM 1.63 PA

COMPRISES OF

Q2 JUNE 2017.......EPS RM 0.28
Q1 MARCH 2017......EPS RM 0.93
Q4 DEC 2016........EPS RM 0.69
Q3 SEPT 2016.......EPS (RM 0.27}

SUPPOSE GOING FWD;

Q3 SEPT 2017......EPS RM O.30 ( WHICH RAIDER THINK UNLIKELY SHOULD BE HIGHER} ANYWAY IF TAKE THIS CONSERVATIVE STANCE...!!

THE ROLLING EPS BASED ON INCORPORATION OF SEPT 2017 Q3 RM 0.30 WILL BE;
EPS............................RM 2.20 PA.

WITH EPS OF RM 0.30 IN SEPT 2017 HRC WILL REGISTERED RECORD HISTORICAL PROFIT OF RM 2.20 COMPARE TO CURRENT ROLLING EPS OF RM 1.63 LOH...!!

IF BASED ON PE 6X AND EPS RM 2.20 HRC WILL BE VALUED RM 13.20 LOH..!!

U SHOULD EXPECT HRC SHARE PRICE WILL FLY BY NOV 2017 LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 00:36 | Report Abuse

Posted by SALAM > Aug 31, 2017 11:50 PM | Report Abuse

For the past 2 years, HRC had consistently produced weakest result in the 3rd Q. This year ???

ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS LOH....!!

THE CURRENT ROLLING eps OF HRC IS RM 1.63 PA

COMPRISES OF

Q2 JUNE 2017.......EPS RM 0.28
Q1 MARCH 2017......EPS RM 0.93
Q4 DEC 2016........EPS RM 0.69
Q3 SEPT 2016.......EPS (RM 0.27}

SUPPOSE GOING FWD;

Q3 SEPT 2017......EPS RM O.30 ( WHICH RAIDER THINK UNLIKELY SHOULD BE HIGHER} ANYWAY IF TAKE THIS CONSERVATIVE STANCE...!!

THE ROLLING EPS BASED ON INCORPORATION OF SEPT 2017 Q3 RM 0.30 WILL BE;
EPS............................RM 2.20 PA.

WITH EPS OF RM 0.30 IN SEPT 2017 HRC WILL REGISTERED RECORD HISTORICAL PROFIT OF RM 2.20 COMPARE TO CURRENT ROLLING EPS OF RM 1.63 LOH...!!

IF BASED ON PE 6X AND EPS RM 2.20 HRC WILL BE VALUED RM 13.20 LOH..!!

U SHOULD EXPECT HRC SHARE PRICE WILL FLY BY NOV 2017 LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 01:00 | Report Abuse

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT OF PETROL COMPANY;

Rolling 4 qtr to 30-6-2017

Pet Dag
Eps................................ Rm 1.01
ROE................................ .....19%
NTA PER SHARE........................RM 5.37


Petron
Eps................................ Rm 1.33
ROE................................ .....27%
NTA PER SHARE........................RM 4.83


Petron
Eps................................ Rm 1.63
ROE................................ .....37%
NTA PER SHARE........................RM 4.41

WHICH PETROL COMPANY IS THE BEST LEH ??

HRC IS THE MOST OUTSTANDING ACHIEVING THE HIGHEST EPS OF RM 1.63 AND ROE 37%

COMPARE TO PETRON EPS RM 1.33 AND ROE 27%

COMPARE TO PETDAG EPS RM 1.01 AND ROE 19%


THE WORSE PERFORMER IS PET DAG WITH EPS OF RM 1.01 AND ROE 19%.


CONCLUSION

HRC IS THE BEST STOCK TO INVEST COMPARE TO THE 3 COMPANIES AND THE CHEAPEST BASED ON PE LOH...!!

Posted by crackspread 12.9 > 2017-09-01 09:27 | Report Abuse

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-31/cheap-oil-and-costly-fuel-are-rare-windfall-from-harvey-for-asia


“Harvey is creating a dual benefit for Asian refiners,” said Arun Kumar Sharma, finance director at Indian Oil. “The shutdown of U.S. refineries is pulling down crude prices and pushing up prices of petroleum products. This will have a double-impact on refinery margins, especially in Asia.”

Posted by urfather > 2017-09-01 14:58 | Report Abuse

I have nothing against Hengyuan since after all i do own Hengyuan. While I would agree that Hengyuan to a certain extent can generate cash, I would disagree that it is considered as a "high cash generating machine".

I do not wish to project the idea that I am trying to find faults in everything I see, but I think there is some degree of misrepresentation based on the article’s notion about Hengyuan being a “cash generating machine”.

The real definition of a cash generating machine is one that can generate loads of cash without having the need to reinvest them in order to sustain future business. Capital intensive businesses most of the time do not fit into the cash generating machine category, and Hengyuan is clearly one of the many capital intensive businesses. Additionally, the mention of RM524 mln FCF failed to take into account the need for a huge capex which we know management has already committed within the year.

Assuming that FCF of RM524 mln is a correct figure, the recent results fail to convince me that the so called high cash flow generated is sustainable mainly because there is a failure in pointing out that such a high operating cash flow generated was also due to an extremely huge increase in trade and other payables balance. Sooner or later the high payables balances will need to be paid off.

To prove that a business is a cash generating machine requires more evidence than whatever that is being displayed in this article. There is too much focus on short term numbers and performance. While it is true that the past is the past, there is still no denying that looking back is still the crux behind security analysis. We need to look back into the historic performance in order to understand sustainability and real earning power. Otherwise, it is no different than selectively plucking numbers in order to paint an interesting, and yet half true and half false picture. The result will still be misleading.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-09-01 15:09 | Report Abuse

Your points above make sensible ...

To furthur point out, THE Author of this article using EG and trying to bring out a false illusion by hint on EG has violate it's FCF and put EG on the same trick as KNM played out ....
IT IS RATHER UNFAIR .

Those who conduct detail account in KNM, would be easily to find out KNM has went through exercise and acquisition Foreign asset in HUGE amount that cant justify with its return from the acquisition.

Besides, not hard to find out KNM has use it's Depreciation to increase their Balance .

Other than the above, i do love to read davidtslim's articles.

ANYWAY, WHY NOT JUZ RE-LOOK AGAIN FOR EG'S PERFORMANCE AFTER THE 1H OF 2018 .

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 15:23 | Report Abuse

GENERAL RAIDER COMMENT,

The real definition of a cash generating machine is one that can generate loads of cash without having the need to reinvest them in order to sustain future business. Capital intensive businesses most of the time do not fit into the cash generating machine category, and Hengyuan is clearly one of the many capital intensive businesses. Additionally, the mention of RM524 mln FCF failed to take into account the need for a huge capex which we know management has already committed within the year.

U CAN ONLY FIND THIS TYPE OF COMPANY...THAT DO NOT REQUIRE TO REINVEST IN NEW MACHINERY TO GENERATE MORE CASH ,IN THIS MODERN ERA, IS IN YOUR GREAT GRANDFATHER COMPANY, THAT MAKE USE KERETA LEMBU POWER TODAY LOH....!!

Posted by VenFx > 2017-09-01 15:55 | Report Abuse

Haha, fatimah
U have the same feeling ...
I tot I'm the only one.

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-09-01 16:09 | Report Abuse

VenFx: Pls check how much gross profit and net profit for EG latest result, it is 1.1%. The super low profit margin rate is very similar to KNM. Pls check EG peers Skpres and VS profit margin, see whether their profit margin much higher than EG or not. Maybe this is the reason why market willing to give VS and SKpres DOUBLE and triple PE valuation higher than EG.

Pls check Skpres and VS, they only give bonus, but not right issue as EG. More funny is EG still stick to their right issue price of 95 sen although their current share price is traded at 78 sen. Skpres even distribute dividend mean they really has good FCF from operation.

One more thing is EG receivable is relatively high over 2-3 quarters already, the risk for impairment from the receivable is high.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 16:17 | Report Abuse

DAVID HOW COME HRC GROSS MARGIN IS DOUBLE OF PET DAG AND PETRON BUT MKT GIVE THE LOWEST PE TO HRC LEH ??

HOW COME ? HOW COME LEH ??

NOT Same as your explaination on EG, skpres and VS ah ???

Posted by VenFx > 2017-09-01 16:21 | Report Abuse

I don't agree id u are trying to frame EG with Knm ...
Eg at least delivered what they plan ti achieve.

I didn't find any suspicious accounting fraud, unlike Knm lor.

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-09-01 16:54 | Report Abuse

Raider: HRC need to deliver a more consistent EPS like petronm and petdag, then only PE valuation can be higher. Also, Hrc need to distribute dividend like Petronm and petdag then only market long term investor will stay and give higher valuation.

HRC very likely to be benefited a lot from recent Singapore crack spread spike and I expect future EPS and FCF from operation will be improved a lot YoY and QoQ. What we are invested is its future. I may cover my view on its possible dividend plan in my next article.

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-09-01 17:07 | Report Abuse

VenFx: I actually not to say EG is the same with Knm. Just in term of profit margin rate they got some similarity. In other accounting profit, EG seem look ok but I just wonder in current good time for EMS biz (where VS can perform quite well), EG still shows a relatively low profit margin with negative FCF (except the latest quarter).

Anyway, not my intention to say any bad thing on EG, just as an example that EG has continuous negative FCF, then they need to raise fund through right issue (and they actually also increase their borrowing from past few quarters).

Posted by Red_Apollo > 2017-09-01 17:20 | Report Abuse

Why cannot give dividendleh?

Posted by stockraider > Sep 1, 2017 04:17 PM | Report Abuse
DAVID HOW COME HRC GROSS MARGIN IS DOUBLE OF PET DAG AND PETRON BUT MKT GIVE THE LOWEST PE TO HRC LEH ??

HOW COME ? HOW COME LEH ??

NOT Same as your explaination on EG, skpres and VS ah ???

Posted by VenFx > 2017-09-01 17:30 | Report Abuse

To form an Efficient Global Ems-vi player , believe me there is a Big playground out there. It really depend how and what a player fit and capital wise deployed in order to rech their economy of scale.

What I do like, EG has the ambitious and talents to play a role with those Big name principal ... try to imagine what is Hon Hai ...

Besides, Eg's income basically come from I) Pcba & 2) Box-built
The later has been enjoying a far better margin of 5.1% net profit and it's weighing gaining heavier qtr by qtr which is very good indeed.

For further of my good view or discussion, welcome u drop by Eg thread .

Last but not least, there ars many good company with your so call low gross margin.
Ci holding / magni / esc / ...

Wondering why u didn't pick Anzo or SPG ?

Posted by 3iii > 2017-09-01 19:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 19:40 | Report Abuse

Why HRC is much better than Pet dag, no joke ...no gambling loh ??

1. HRC ROE is higher than Pet dag.
2. HRC EPS is higher than Pet Dag
3. HRC Earnings Growth is stronger than Pet Dag
4. HRC cashflow per share stronger than Pet Dag

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2017 05:26 PM | Report Abuse

There are many gamblers in the market. But gambler is not a kind word, so they masquerade as speculators.

If the news are good, they buy. When the news are bad, they jump out. If the price of the stock does not make its move within a short period, they sell it and go looking for something else.

This speculative buying and selling frenzy has been going on for a long time.

BUT MOST IMPORTANT IS HRC PE 5X IS MUCH LOWER THAN OVERVALUE PET DAG PE 24X LOH..!!

A COMPANY LIKE PET DAG LOST IN EVERY COUNT OF BEAUTY PARADE, SHOULD NOT DESERVE SO HIGH PE 24X LOH...!!

ON THE OTHER HAND HRC SHOULD DESERVE MUCH HIGHER PE THAN 5X, BCOS IT BEAT PET DAG IN SO MANY AREA IN TERMS OF PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT LOH..!!

YES...MUST BUY HRC QUICKLY B4 ....ITS SHARE PRICE RUN UP LOH..!!

IF NO MONIES SELL UR PET DAG...SWITCH IT TO HRC LOH...!!

Posted by 3iii > Sep 1, 2017 07:34 PM | Report Abuse

Hengyuan

Q1 2017 Earnings ++ ve FCF -ve

Q2 2017 Earnings + ve FCF +ve


How do you conclude this is a cash cow?

U MAY CONCLUDE BASED ON ABOVE LOH...!!
BUY....BUY....BUY....!!!

Posted by 3iii > 2017-09-01 19:48 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 19:53 | Report Abuse

WOW...CRACK SPREAD USD 17 PER BARREL SO HIGH MEH ??

I REMEMBER LAST YEAR, HRC CRACK MARGIN, USD 5.50 PER BARREL,HRC ALREADY MAKE EPS RM 1.12 PER SHARE LOH...!!

CANNOT IMAGINE USD 17 PER BARREL, HRC CAN MAKE HOW MUCH LOH...!!

Posted by 稻田·* 粒粒芳香 > 2017-09-01 19:55 | Report Abuse

3iii, I duit, suggest u to sell petdag. Using same logic, petdag only worth RM10

Posted by 稻田·* 粒粒芳香 > 2017-09-01 19:57 | Report Abuse

Eps2 for one quarter soon?

Posted by stockraider > 2017-09-01 20:00 | Report Abuse

DO NOT FORECAST UNREALISTIC EPS LOH...!!

LIKELY EPS NO LESS THAN RM 0.30 FOR Q3 LOH...!!

Posted by swiftwind > 2017-09-01 20:03 | Report Abuse

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=SEP_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=U7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM&chartMode=dynamic

Kindly verify on this info dear sifus.

Posted by 稻田·* 粒粒芳香 > 2017-09-01 20:09 | Report Abuse

Once hengyuan pay div, it will fly super high loh

Posted by 3iii > 2017-09-01 20:22 | Report Abuse

Yes, I think Hengyuan is unlikely to pay dividends this year. Why?

I maybe wrong too.

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-09-01 20:23 | Report Abuse

settle the debt first mah!!!!!

Posted by 3iii > 2017-09-01 21:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by 3iii > 2017-09-01 21:12 | Report Abuse

Quote
BOTH HENGYUAN AND PETRONM ARE OVERVALUED
Author: smartrader2020 | Publish date: Fri, 4 Aug 2017, 12:55 PM



BOTH OF THEM ARE OVERVALUED BY PER VALUATION

At current PER of annualised FY17 EPS, PETRONM and HENGYUAN are trading above regional PER valuation.

I believe most of people here are mistranslated PER valuation.

It does not mean PER of 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x are cheap. You have to compare with both local and REGIONAL MARKET AS WELL.

Why compare regional? Because this refinery business is globally. Not only in Malaysia!

Unless the company is making nasi lemak, which is only in Malaysia!

Some articles that promoting these stocks have misled investors.

Based on both companies current market caps between RM2.0-RM3.0 billion only, trading at current PER are seen OVERVALUED against regional refinery companies, who are far far bigger market cap.

For example, let’s look at (1) Mangalore refinery in India, the lowest market cap in India, of RM15.0 billion, its PER only at 6.5x with ROE of 46%.

Another example, (2) Hindustan Petroleum with RM40.7 billion market cap, its PER only at 7.4x and ROE of 43%.

Last example in Japan, (3) JXTG holdings Inc with market cap of RM65.8 b billion, its PER only 7.7x,

while (4) Idemitsu Kossan Co LT with market cap of RM21.0 billion, its PER only 4.7x.

So, in terms of PER valuation, PETRONM and HENGYUAN have NO MORE UPSIDE TO OFFER TO INVESTORS.

I just share my view. I dont recommend anything here. It is up to you to decide it.