Dear Icon8888, I have questions? Are INSAS and TA asset paly or earning play? INSAS earn growing profit from Inari and TA from hotel operation. Can a share be both asset and earning play?
the good news is foreigners holding Government bonds is only 14%....That means we can handle it, there will be no crisis, no Greek situation....and depreciation of ringgit is only a 50/50 event.
the bad news is that every thing has changed...even the strategies that applied before has to change....target prices have to reduced, 10% profits target most cases good enough, you don't sell other people will sell, stock selections more narrow, and keep the thinking cap on always.
business sense will keep you in the right stocks.....keep reviewing your portfolio.
just to make 10-15% , you have to be early and keep to the stocks with good business sense.
I do not think high NTA, or low PE stocks is of any use ..............only stocks that can attract people to keep buying is good enough to buy.
it's correct, i called it growth investor. Try to look those development of new factory/production/plant which expected to complete within next 1 year and lesser , many example to prove such as JHM,Comcorp,bslcorp,kgb, few more ..within a year it will double provided that qtr rslt is improving. Another challenge would be to find the best time to sell it back. Greedy another bad chapter to cover.
If there's anything Ive learned it is that people just want to be spoonfed
Hence why in the end its ultimately better to manage outside money
That said in the near-term probability of upside is tilted towards exporters - gloves, apparel, furniture (maybe) etc
You have a strong US economy and jobs data and looming Fed rate hikes coupled with the recent change in our government (lets give them some time to iron out the kinks and implement their policies...) you would expect MYR to depreciate against the USD
invest in bear and harvest with bull. Choose the counters intelligently and you will be rewarded handsomely.
Currently internet/technology counters gone crazy in Taiwan market. Any one can share what technology counter in Malaysia to be in the watch list? myeg?
Thks for sharing and good point "Malaysia is different from the US and other developed countries" The strategies buy on hold can used for some growth stock like Dialog, QL, AJI & pMETAL. 90% Others stock most like prescription only
I guess Tun M will not let RM=4 /USD, I predict it will strengthen to 3.8. Steel counters will do very well with this as they import 90% of the raw mat
1. I agree that one should be realistic with their return instead of taking on excessive risk. But even at 15-20% CAGR can be a risky proposition for most investors.
2. How well Calvin Tan is doing with his investment aside, it has nothing to do with how well asset play is in Bursa. Imagine saying "The 100 years old uncle next door has been smoking his entire life, therefore, smoking is harmless." Calvin Tan's portfolio is nothing but one sample size. The law of small number. Using this inductive reasoning to imply whether an investment strategy i.e asset play is effective is misleading. In addition, if Walter Schloss is still alive and investing today, chances are you are going to see lots of losses in his portfolio 90% of the time. As the name imply, asset play is a game of magnitude. Frequency, you are going to see losses most of the time, but the point of asset play or cigar butt if you want to call it that name is gains from a few stocks in the portfolio should more than enough to make up the losses of the majority. And if a majority people in i3 believe in Icon and start avoiding asset play from today, won't that make asset play more attractive with higher expected value?
3. While I agree there isn't many moat in M'sia compare to US, which is common sense, that is far from saying cyclical play is an 'easy' game for most investors. How many dip their toes in O&G play right before GE13 and get killed when the bust comes? How many people ride the boom on export/furniture stocks died in 2016? And to be frank, export stocks ain't 'cyclical', that's nonsense euphoria build on currency stupidity. Things always look obvious at hindsight. To add further point, most investors are trend followers rather than contrarian, what happens when a trend followers hit on cyclical stocks? That's the quickest way to die.
Mahathir is not smarter than you and me but Mahathir has great sense of timing and politics in his blood.
Wrote the Malay Dilemma at the right time Left UMNO three times and each time with great timing that enhances his reputation when he returns
Keeps his ears to the ground and understands the big trends,
Loyalty to Perjuangan , not loyalty to any particular Party.
Lives long enough to come out a winner.....
Stock market the same Don't need to be the smartest kid on the block But you need to have a great sense of timing...and stockmarket in your blood
You have to have your own book that you can call your own, yet willing and able to review to improve your opinions, you have to keep your ears to the ground and understand the big trends.
Your Loyalty is to the Struggle, not to any external party or group,
and you do need a bit of luck to live long enough to see you triumph, to correct your mistakes, to reinvent yourself, to try again.....
Willing to take risks , even great risks that others will avoid...taking risks is part of your Struggle. You know that failure is not the end, failure is another step to success.
Tun M will not let usd=4, with the cheap money from Japan, Ringgit will strengthen to 3.8 or lower. HSR and MRT3 will be re-tender again for Japan like project in Indonesia.
statistically, it could be difficult to separate luck from skills......but who cares? As long as catches the mouse.
What the skills factor can do is to design the portfolio to be high beta or low beta portfolio.
Considering there are so many idiots playing the game.....surely it is believable that the game can be beat.....that a smart one can consistently come out ahead...........
Get rich investing in Bursa Malaysia? Only very few made it and even fewer kept it. You need bull market conditions to make it big taking huge bets and then have the discipline to pull up stakes when well ahead. Those I know who got real rich started a business, grew it through decades, listed it and then can play the game more on their own terms.
Good take on Malaysian market and investors/traders. Hopefully our market develops further with more participants and with greater price discovery. Bloomberg Malaysia will be positive for Bursa.
Most of the investors are making losses since 2015. They may have selected one or two counters that make a lot of money, but their portfolio as a whole are making losses.
The only PLC stills got 700m cash in B.S yet selling at extremely cheap after giving away special dividend is Dutaland . I think this ctr fit short term but long term holding. Other penny ctrs like ASb,ASIAPAC,FPGroup ,Handal ,Heava, INSAS,TA worth consider.
Thanks Icon. Good one to share. But again to all new investors, DO NOT digest blindly. Also learn more from other experts and finally form your own methodology. Only you yourself know what you need and want.
“For most of [the professional investors and speculators] are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it ‘for keeps,’ but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence.”
- John Maynard Keynes (1935)
The malaysian markets are not that different from american ones, or other mature markets.
Humans are the same everywhere, throughout history.
If most people are spending their time predicting quarters, maybe the real edge comes from doing something else other than predicting quarters.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Halite
8,633 posts
Posted by Halite > 2018-06-12 22:53 | Report Abuse
Do not wrestle with the pig,
Both of you will get dirty
But the pig enjoys it.