Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:03 | Report Abuse

standard and normal for IPPs....after completion, go listing, harvest one round.....

dividend payout ratio very high....this is normal for all IPPS in Malaysia and also existing ones in Vietnam.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-14 20:19 | Report Abuse

Why would China partner refuse to distribute the FCF as dividend ? So that the cash horde can later be confiscated by Vietnamese government in the event of a china Vietnam conflict ? They are even more keen than Jaks to extract the cash

Furthermore, when Jaks invite them in, Jaks would have imposed condition to pay out dividend through shareholders agreement

In short, don't worry about dividend

Everything is under control

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-14 20:22 | Report Abuse

I don't have insider info regarding whatever I said above, but my experience told me that this should be the case

If you have been in the market Long enough, you will know this kind of stuffs

Posted by Nikmon > 2019-04-14 20:22 | Report Abuse

If IPP fail, china CPEEC is the bigger looser.haha

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:23 | Report Abuse

icon....u think can charge SSlee for consultancy services?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:28 | Report Abuse

As for the $ 150 m eq profits, that is already after interest and depreciation charges.

As for project loan of US $ 1.4 billion, that is in JV books, and associated company loans are not consolidated.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-14 20:29 | Report Abuse

You guys are a bunch of strange fellows

qqq3, sslee, KcChong...

All of you ...

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:30 | Report Abuse

As for Insas, Insas sure die.

Starting this quarter Inari no longer an Associated company. P/L sure to collapse. Sure die.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:31 | Report Abuse

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 14, 2019 8:29 PM | Report Abuse

You guys are a bunch of strange fellows

qqq3, sslee, KcChong...

All of you ...
=======

except I am the only one with some expertise in accounting matters.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:34 | Report Abuse

and except that sslee and Kc Chong are dinosaurs like their hero that benjamin guy.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-14 20:40 | Report Abuse

IPP will definitely move ahead.I am sure China and CEO Andy will be very profitable. Profit to minority shareholders like icon8888 however remains cloudy. Based on my experience, he will not be getting his tp7 anytime soon. If ever.

This is what happens when directors in a company are chosen for their allegiance to the CEO and not to the shareholders.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-14 20:44 | Report Abuse

Talk so much , I am already making 160% return from my Jaks wb

You pchem just blasted its plant

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 20:45 | Report Abuse

85 sen today

$ 1.70 already doubled.....After that, I pass to retirement fund managers.

on Jaks...............


qqq3 Philips...go buy some Jaks.

Its not gambling. Its still investing even thought Jaks is not historically an exemplary company.

Its still investing in a company with great growth prospects., managed by CPEEC , the largest electricity contractor in China....and Jaks is only a passive investor with minority stakes. Once the thing is switched on, don't need Jaks to be genius to see money coming in. Its an IPP after all.

Posted by Connie555 > 2019-04-14 20:48 | Report Abuse

hahahahaha first time i see Icon so harsh on KC.

Anyway, passed by to say Hi to Ass Ass Lee also, long time no see.


Anyway, if accounting profit is not profit then i dont know what is profit liao. Maybe you people should just go and operate or invest in pasar malam store. (Cash basis mar, no hutang hutang, all 真金白银 end of the day) You all should just wait thr at 10pm sharp, wait boss sau dong and distribute daily dividend. How good is that...



Instead of sticking to your Insas and your so called mark to market securities, and end of the day the gain in you mark to market securities will just account as fair value gain in financial instrument, no cash distribute at all. why that one not accounting profit ka? that is cash??? as long as Thong kok khee dont sell any of the mark to market securities what you see is also your accounting profit. i dont see what different in between jaks accounting profit and your insas fair value gain accounting profit seriously...





===================================================================

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 14, 2019 8:29 PM | Report Abuse

You guys are a bunch of strange fellows

qqq3, sslee, KcChong...

All of you ...

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-14 21:26 | Report Abuse

HAHAHAHAHHA Icon that's a funny one 160% liao wakakakaka ... aiyar all no need worry lah year end we see how who got the biggest engine piston then win already lo! Simple

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-14 21:29 | Report Abuse

Yup, I talk so much but I have confidence to put my wife money my father in law money and my own money in huge numbers into a big investment in PCHEM.

Your Jaks wb is pure speculation and gambling. If not how many percent can you put into it? 5% of your networth? What is that?10k? 50k? Make 160% feeling good about yourself?

Funny little girl, make money on risky speculation you think it is investment.

I believe you also put money into PCHEM, so it makes it Our plant got blasted.

How about your LCTITAN? Put money into it at 4.15 more drop to 3.99. and dropping.

Lousy investor what is your risky total returns over the years Mr ex investment banker, ex engineer?I doubt you are any better than Calvin tan out 5% into 50 stocks and the rest into FD.

>>>>>>>>

Icon8888 Talk so much , I am already making 160% return from my Jaks wb

You pchem just blasted its plant
14/04/2019 8:44 PM

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-14 21:39 | Report Abuse

You need to understand the most important thing in investing is the protection of capital. I don't invest in one trick pony and companies with shoddy management. I would rather invest in well run companies long term instead of buying companies which I can't judge the long term prospects.

That's the difference between people like me and icon8888. He only looks at profit profit profit. I look at how much risk I am bearing versus how much profit I stand to gain.

You can tell by how he only looks at his total returns that he has no clue to evaluate risk.

I wonder how much losses he had to bear through the years. Or how much opportunity cost he lost because he invested in companies like Jaks and hengyuan instead of dumb dumb hold good companies like PCHEM, QL, topglove, Nestlé throughout the years.

My advise qqq3, learn to evaluate risk. Once you do, you will understand why I buy companies like gkent, yinson, pchem, ql and topglov throughout the years.

Fake investment bankers and ex engineer like icon8888 will never be able to understand why a company like QL is still holding strong at 11 billion, instead of doing to the 3-5 billion mark.

Instead he continues buying cheap companies.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-14 21:40 | Report Abuse

>>>>>>>
qqq3 Philips...go buy some Jaks.

Posted by cheoky > 2019-04-14 21:51 | Report Abuse

Black cat or white cat can catch mice is good cat. Miao...

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-14 21:52 | Report Abuse

Just like what unker Calvin said this morning lo! Look at the protection of your capital first then the return will come naturally! If you lose your capital very sad, if you are young okay lah can earn back but if you retiring soon how lah! Don't take unnecessary risk mah! Just like driving, you want to use your indicator so other people won't hit you, in Bursa you want to avoid lousy companies, same theory lah!

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-14 23:11 | Report Abuse

BNF trader losses ) Philip > Apr 14, 2019 9:39 PM | Report Abuse

risk
============

Since I escape the slaughter in Jaks $ 1.80 to 50 sen....I consider that good omen. The risk in Jaks is no more than the risk in small cap index which did well these 3 months. Once a while also got to invest not just trade.

But Jaks got interesting angle...a green field IPP. People like me normally do not get chance to participate in greenfield IPP.

Risk of Jaks 50 vs $ 1.20? I will take the $ 1.20 road....take the chance that big funds will come in.

Posted by i3Value > 2019-04-15 00:26 | Report Abuse

Another argument by Sslee without substance. Everytime use ‘what if’ scenario. In every investment, confirm 100% got long list of ‘what if’ scenario. A smart investor will look for signs of ‘what if’ risk turn into reality. But if nothing happen so far, no teigger, you what if this what if there got any benefit? Point out risk must got good basis. If not how to invest in anything? If want no risk invrstment, walk into bank tomorrow morning. FD rate chow in board

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 01:45 | Report Abuse

@Philips

I made 160% return with my Jaks wb while you were busy talking days and night about your high quality investment

Anybody can talk

Posted by Sslee > 2019-04-15 06:34 | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Edit in some data from AES financial account 2018 into the blog
Refer to AES financial account 2018:
https://s2.q4cdn.com/825052743/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2018/q4/2018-Form-10-K-FINAL.pdf

Thank you

Posted by Sslee > 2019-04-15 06:56 | Report Abuse

Dear faked accountant,
“AS for Insas, Insas sure die.
Starting this quarter Inari no longer an Associated company. P/L sure to collapse. Sure die”

If Inari re-classified as financial assets at fair value through profit and loss and with about 600 million Inari share closing price at 13/4/2019 RM1.66. How much Fair value gain needed to report to P&L?
And by the way every 1 cent dividend Inari declared will be equal to cash inflow of 6 million to INSAS what a wonderful idea.

Thank you.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2019-04-15 08:21 | Report Abuse

Buying great companies is great, but doesn't mean buying cheap companies are stupid. IF everyone believe in that, there is more of a reason that buying cheap proves more profitable than buying great. All that matters is if Icon8888 think he is well compensated for taking the risk. If the expected value is positive where odds is in your favour, buying cheap can be as good as buying great.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-15 08:31 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee,

Could you explain the information you have gathered from AES account ?

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 08:41 | Report Abuse

My friend Shai went to Macau and made 600% in a few days at the Baccarat table. To bad he only brought 100k sgd to play.

Is that a source of pride icon8888? How much did you put into your 160% speculation?

Please don't mistake speculation with investment. In investment we look at long term wealth.

In speculation, one day you make short term money, the next you lose it all again in cut loss.

I read your article on imago and asianpac. While you were busy gambling there in 2014 onwards, I was busy building up my long term position in ql, topglove and yinson.

You obviously cannot evaluate risk. Most speculators don't.

That's why you can't build long term wealth.

Have fun at your Baccarat table. With your investing attitude, I doubt after 20 years of investing you have a growing portfolio of 160% a year. Much less 1m in portfolio assets.

>>>>>>>
@Philips

I made 160% return with my Jaks wb while you were busy talking days and night about your high quality investment

Anybody can talk

Posted by DK66 > 2019-04-15 08:41 | Report Abuse

For the benefit of those in this thread, I repost my response from Jaks forum.

Dear Sslee,

The base you used in your computation is wrong. You should use US$1.87b which is the project cost, not US$470m which is the equity capital.

There are terms in the shareholder agreement signed between CPECC and Jaks to address your concern on the dividend issue. Unless, you think Andy is less than normal.

The ownership of the power plant will be transferred to MOIT, vietnam after 25 years regardless. Coal power plant has an average lifespan of 40 years.

A deal is a deal, there is no such thing as "you earned too much" in business. Why is Apple able to sell a phone for more than RM5,000, fair price ?

In fact, I believe the margin is much more than US$1.5 cent per kwh.

However, as I have said, kenanga/management has given RM150m as the profit figure. For now, I m happy to work on this number.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 08:53 | Report Abuse

how you invest is actually dependent on what books you have been reading

if you read warren Buffett, you will think and behave like Philips and 3iii. Look for high quality companies selling at not so cheap valuation.

But if you read Howard mark, John Neff, etc, you will think and behave like me. Look for reasonable quality second liners trading at cheap valuation.

The reason why Philips and I are seldom in good term is because Philips thinks that his method is more superior than mine (and almost all of us here, as very few actually invest like buffett). So there is no room for compromise. He is the best, our stock picks are all rubbish.

(the same holds true for 3iii, who has gone quiet recently as there are more and more evidence revealing the inadequacies of his investment philosophy)

For me, both investment philosophies are good. Buffett is not the only person that makes it, Howard Mark, John Neff and others have also been very successful. This is proof that both methods work.

They come with their respective strengths and weaknesses. You choose whatever that suits you.




Posted by Ricky Yeo > Apr 15, 2019 8:21 AM | Report Abuse

Buying great companies is great, but doesn't mean buying cheap companies are stupid. IF everyone believe in that, there is more of a reason that buying cheap proves more profitable than buying great. All that matters is if Icon8888 think he is well compensated for taking the risk. If the expected value is positive where odds is in your favour, buying cheap can be as good as buying great.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 09:02 | Report Abuse

This part I totally agree 100%. Value is what you get, price is what you pay. However how do you define a great company? Amazon and Netflix and topglove and harta was once a cheap company ( in price) but a great company ( management, market size, delivery, growth).

Just because JAKS is cheap ( by which estimation), doesn't make it good if you don't know what the risk is: let me outline.

1. CEO wants to control the board of directors with his own elected board. There is ZERO representation of the majority shareholder (70%+ ownership) who will protect their interests. When KYY wanted to do so, he was rejected. RISK.
2. JAKS is losing money on its property development business. RISK.
3. The IPP which is the reason everyone buys the stock is not operational and no profits yet. Everything is ASSUMED. RISK.
4. a lot of being spoken about an PPA contract that is profitable but very few have seen. RISK.
5. The projections for JAKS has gone from negative to very optimistic (tp7-9) such volatility is the same reason why most banks don't deal with bitcoin. RISK.
6. what will JAKS do with the money from IPP? Historically, they have not been sharing it's wealth and profits with its minority shareholders in terms of share buybacks, dividends etc. RISK.
7. If JAKS decides to go back into property development, this time in Vietnam with all your IPP money, knowing how it performed with its Malaysia development, will you be happy or sad? RISK. (inside knowledge says this will happen.)
8. Is JAKS management a capable management(that can grow its future business) or a one trick pony like INSAS which stumbled into inari ameritron? RISK.
9 do you know for a FACT that the IPP will be profitable? Three same thing was said about evolve mall( great location, lousy management. I was there).RISK.

If you can still buy Jaks after weighing ALL these risks, then I salute you. Either you know something the CFO doesn't, or you have only started your investing journey 3-5 years ago. In icon8888 case, you can't teach a dog new tricks.

>>>>>>>

Buying great companies is great, but doesn't mean buying cheap companies are stupid. IF everyone believe in that, there is more of a reason that buying cheap proves more profitable than buying great. All that matters is if Icon8888 think he is well compensated for taking the risk. If the expected value is positive where odds is in your favour, buying cheap can be as good as buying great.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-15 09:27 | Report Abuse

u cannot compare gain from Jaks with bacarat. Jaks gain is known and knowable in advance. Its call analysis.

Impressive

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/200821.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-15 09:34 | Report Abuse

analysis is not a contest of imagination.

analysis is looking at the forces of nature........coolly and calmly......

I understand IB are coming back into the act.....completion of IPP is getting close, no time to wait, to stand and stare.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-15 09:48 | Report Abuse

Dayang, $ 3 drop to 50 sen, everybody curse its management. Can also rebound to $ 1.70

Jaks, $ 1.80 drop to 50 sen, everybody curse its management. Can also rebound to....?????.....and what about the risk that is true the management is not half as bad as the worse case scenario?

IPP is automatic, I don't worry for it.....People are worried about the property division. Pacific Star was launched during good times and I understand the condominiums have been sold ...risk I may be wrong.....but what is the Pacific Star sales?......If it is just late delivery problems and not sales problem, then nothing to worry about, in fact got pleasant surprises in store for you.

As for the Mall.....$ 600 m book value, $ 300 mortgage loan, worry for what?

In conclusion, analyzable and stay positive.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 10:39 | Report Abuse

Come on qqq3, I was not born yesterday, 300 mortgage loan got fixed interest payment yearly.

600m book value got dividend payment based on 600? This is just an estimated valuation. If it is called at 600 who is it no one wants to buy the mall? This is because the real intrinsic value is not 600m. It is whatever someone wants to pay for it. And for him he will value the mall based on its income generation value. How much is it generating versus maintenance cost? Negative? That is why JAKS unable to sell the mall until today.

>>>>>>
As for the Mall.....$ 600 m book value, $ 300 mortgage loan, worry for what?

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 10:44 | Report Abuse

Your IPP gain is not knowable. Otherwise you would not get a TP from 2.5 to 7, giving it a market cap between 1.5 billion and 4 billion after all warrants are converted, an astounding number for a company which hasn't even started IPP operations.

This is not called analysis. This is called speculation.

Call it what it is.

>>>>>>
Jaks gain is known and knowable in advance. Its call analysis.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-15 12:05 | Report Abuse

I am hopeful they can sell the Mall for $ 400 m , take a $ 200 m hit but raise $ 100m cash.

In PJ, cannot do meh? Management says the Mall is cashflow positive.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 12:08 | Report Abuse

have you been to the mall yet? other than basement food court and ground floor, 1st floor above all empty and you can do a scene from walking dead.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-04-15 12:10 | Report Abuse

Upon completion, its $ 150 m profits from the IPP net of tax.

Discounted at 12% divided by 600 million shares, its $ 2 per share.....and this not including any other assets they have.

I will take this as 12 months target price, not bad compared to 85 sen.

Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > 2019-04-15 12:20 | Report Abuse

Please show any documentation or proof that this is known and knowable. Other than analyst reports, verbal communication and press releases with the keyword "estimates".

FYI you do know IRR is not an actual formula right? it is merely a close approximation based on assumed factors to get at the figure you want.

In either case, I will stop commenting as there is no end to this. You dont have the power purchase agreement details, you think anyone that sells jaks shares is stupid (including CFO), and your figures are literally pluck from whatever figure you want it to be (ignore bearish analysts and cherrypick bullish analysts, not based on real results and performance).

Good luck all, up to you to hold it long term until the power plant becomes operational.

I really doubt JAKS can become your 4 billion market cap company the way you think it will.

If it does, I salute you, well done!

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Upon completion, its $ 150 m profits from the IPP net of tax.

Discounted at 12% divided by 600 million shares, its $ 2 per share.....and this not including any other assets they have.

I will take this as 12 months target price, not bad compared to 85 sen.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 13:29 | Report Abuse

one thing I know is that I made 160% punting jaks wb while your pChem is still busy cleaning up the blast site

why talk so much ?


Posted by ( BNF trader losses ) Philip > Apr 15, 2019 9:02 AM | Report Abuse

This part I totally agree 100%. Value is what you get, price is what you pay. However how do you define a great company? Amazon and Netflix and topglove and harta was once a cheap company ( in price) but a great company ( management, market size, delivery, growth).

Just because JAKS is cheap ( by which estimation), doesn't make it good if you don't know what the risk is: let me outline.

1. CEO wants to control the board of directors with his own elected board. There is ZERO representation of the majority shareholder (70%+ ownership) who will protect their interests. When KYY wanted to do so, he was rejected. RISK.
2. JAKS is losing money on its property development business. RISK.
3. The IPP which is the reason everyone buys the stock is not operational and no profits yet. Everything is ASSUMED. RISK.
4. a lot of being spoken about an PPA contract that is profitable but very few have seen. RISK.
5. The projections for JAKS has gone from negative to very optimistic (tp7-9) such volatility is the same reason why most banks don't deal with bitcoin. RISK.
6. what will JAKS do with the money from IPP? Historically, they have not been sharing it's wealth and profits with its minority shareholders in terms of share buybacks, dividends etc. RISK.
7. If JAKS decides to go back into property development, this time in Vietnam with all your IPP money, knowing how it performed with its Malaysia development, will you be happy or sad? RISK. (inside knowledge says this will happen.)
8. Is JAKS management a capable management(that can grow its future business) or a one trick pony like INSAS which stumbled into inari ameritron? RISK.
9 do you know for a FACT that the IPP will be profitable? Three same thing was said about evolve mall( great location, lousy management. I was there).RISK.

If you can still buy Jaks after weighing ALL these risks, then I salute you. Either you know something the CFO doesn't, or you have only started your investing journey 3-5 years ago. In icon8888 case, you can't teach a dog new tricks.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 13:30 | Report Abuse

one day when pChem appreciates 160% you can come back and lecture me and qqq3 about jaks

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-15 13:31 | Report Abuse

maybe need few years leh hahaha

Posted by Investor 999 > 2019-04-15 13:35 | Report Abuse

忠言逆耳

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 13:40 | Report Abuse

not really lah... I just found him double standard. he lists out so many shortcomings of jaks, yet can live with so much weaknesses of QL (chicken farming ? pui)

I can do the same for QL. so dont take his view seriously. every stock has its weaknesses, it is whether people want to spend time dwelling on them.

Posted by Investor 999 > 2019-04-15 13:41 | Report Abuse

捷硕从来没派过股息， 大股东却天天大鱼大肉。

Posted by Investor 999 > 2019-04-15 13:44 | Report Abuse

他讨厌捷硕只因没在RM0.500以下买进。

有买进的人说好， 没买进的人说不好。

正常 ！

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 13:44 | Report Abuse

I know... but not so good company can be good buy when cheap enough or risk reward ratio is favourable enough

my jaks wb appreciated from 25 to 60 sen loh....

do I need to say more ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-04-15 13:45 | Report Abuse

but it is ok if you cannot understand, I roughly know your intellectual level...

not everybody has second level thinking capability

Posted by popo92 > 2019-04-15 13:56 | Report Abuse

i would totally agreed that JAKS is definitely not a great company, but it doesn't make JAKS a mediocre company to be an very bad investment. After eliminate so many risks, there are still some opportunities that it could be a turnover company, especially from its vietnam power plant. Of coz, i am not going to elaborate those analysis as there are already so many on the forum itself. Also, i would agreed with you that those analysis and figures are not proven but its definitely not pluck from the air. Frankly from those speculated analysis, just take a pinch of salt and decide from its risk and rewards i believe it is already sufficient enough. Not necessary a great investment, but you are still betting against odds not gambling. I would agree that howard marks and john neff investment philosophy are good and proven very successful too. For warren buffett, he's the greatest for reason and philip have the same concept when it comes to picking companies to invest in. I don't criticise and condemning both different philosophy as i benefited from both.