Posted by probability > 2020-12-19 17:53 | Report Abuse

well said sifu sslee, i concur

its a fake fundamental that retailers are chasing

Posted by gemfinder > 2020-12-19 18:28 | Report Abuse

Ok wat. Rm strengthening, crude oil px up, inventories gain. Crack spread stabile . Not that bad

Posted by OTB > 2020-12-19 21:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-19 22:20 | Report Abuse

Dear OTB,

HRC Q3 result: Page 21
The average market prices of oil products for the current quarter saw some improvement against the margins recorded in the immediately preceding quarter, although they continued to be in the negative region. The positive combination of stock holding gains and support from oil margin swaps for the current period resulted in a comparatively higher gross margin and net profit against the previous quarter.

Some improvement against the margins recorded in the immediately preceding quarter, although they continued to be in the negative region.
Mean refining margin still negative for the quarter. And quarter profit is from stock holding gains and support from oil margin swaps.

The breakeven of USD 3/barrel is answer given by management for my 2018 AGM question.
It just mean refining only able to make profit before tax if crack spread is above USD 3/barrel.

The refining (direct + overhead + Interest + depreciation) cost is RM 3/barrel during FYR 2018.
It will be higher if they run Euro4 spec.

Q3 inventories gain base on Average Brent Crude per barrel Q2 USD 29 to Q3 of USD 43 is USD 14.

Q4 result will again depend on this inventories gain again. If average brent crude Q4 (Oct, Nov and Dec) is USD 49 then the inventories gain is USD 6 compare to Q3 of USD 14.

That about what I able to share with you.
Thank you

Posted by OTB > 2020-12-19 22:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-19 23:24 | Report Abuse

Dear OTB,
From Q3 report: Cumulative 9 month 30th Sept 2020

Manufacturing expenses: RM 166,920,000
Administrative expenses: RM 63,489,000
Depreciation and amortisation: RM 89,023,000
Finance cost: RM 18,864,000
Total: RM 338,296,000
Sales volumes Barrel: 25,400,000
Cost per barrel: RM 13.32
USD to MYR: 4.15:Cost per barrel: USD 3.22