Posted by leo218 > 2015-08-05 18:43 | Report Abuse

The boss is stupid bet on USD going down....

Posted by soon9913 > 2015-08-05 19:06 | Report Abuse

someone should responsible for the hedging. where got ppl hedged such long period ie 2 years

Posted by soon9913 > 2015-08-05 19:07 | Report Abuse

because of this wrong move, the company suffered multi millions forex loss.. speechless

Posted by blackout > 2015-08-05 23:33 | Report Abuse

Nothing wrong with hedging, its to control risk. Now myr weaken so it looks like a bad move, but imagine if myr strengthen.

Anyway its already expiring. No problem. Even if they add on any hedges, it is at 3.6. So their still ok.

Posted by sherlock > 2015-08-06 02:18 | Report Abuse

what should really really been aware is,the ability of Notion to generate cash,cos they are able to generate RM21 million from business operation in 1st half 2015,if we annualized the figure,there will be RM42 million cash generated from business operation,around 33% of its market capitalization.

actually,if notion successfully return to black,they can generate much more higher cash from operation.

tats means,Notion's business are operationally VERY profitable,with sustainable high margin,i am pretty sure the company can turn into net cash position within 1 year,and resume dividend payout.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-06 10:51 | Report Abuse

Welcome newbies to d notion boat :) I can see most most of u don't know what ur buying into. Lol.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-06 18:10 | Report Abuse

If you buying notion, u need holding power... A lot of profit takers exiting.. Until d fundamental improves convincingly, all short term hot money come in n going out now.

Posted by sherlock > 2015-08-07 03:32 | Report Abuse

investment perspective,Notion looks very attractive now because:

1.)financial outlook are improving,should return to black from 3Q FY2015 onward.
2.)share price is attractive,only trade at P/BV of 0.34X,low 1yr Forward PE of 5-7x.
3.)generating very strong cash flow.at current market cap of RM120million,if you privatize Notion,its only take 2-3 year for you to recover the full investment amount from business operation,and u will still gain few hundred million worth of asset in the company.
4.)good dividend potential.(well,u can check their records in bursa website)
5.)depreciation charges which stood at RM40 million should reduce meaningfully from FY2016 onward,due to asset lightening exercises and various assets almost fully depreciated,any reduction will contribute positively to future earning directly.
6.)beneficial to stronger USD.cos most of the hedging contracts expired in may,and management disclosed wont hedge against forex,at less not now,the effect of stronger USD will be reflect in coming results.
7.)lagged counter under stronger USD theme play.(will it catch market attention after strong USD reflected in financial results?)

however,Val-Elta is right,in order to fully capture potentials above,you had to BUY and hold for medium term.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-07 10:41 | Report Abuse

bursa dropping a lot doesnt help too. Those who bought in late will be cutting loss.
I also averaged back in early :'( buy back at 45, 43.5. Now getting somemore at 42.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-07 16:04 | Report Abuse

Think selloff is done, bottom @ 0.415, not much profit to gain from future sellers at that price and below already.

I'm a very conservative guy, lets say a TP of 60 cent (PE 10), which is possible with JUST a EPS of 1.5cent per Q (6 cent per year)
There is still more for you to gain (60 cent/43-45 now) vs your risk of waiting for it to drop to 40 cent for example.

Think today a lot sell at a loss from the panic sales.

Posted by blackout > 2015-08-08 12:25 | Report Abuse

Depreciation is on machinery not property. They r selling property @sherlock. Hedge also nvn. Management say maybe dun need, didnt say wont

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-12 16:59 | Report Abuse

4.03 to USD.
Bursa Meltdown meltdown.. all run away/sold out/cut loss?

Posted by leo218 > 2015-08-13 18:56 | Report Abuse

Idiot boss hedge USD at 3.1 3.4... guess he didn't follow what is happening in US..eco there keep improve since last year n people keep talk about stop q e. Expect U s interest rate up on this year. Yet he like sohai hedge USD at 3.1....interest rate up . Usd up.

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-13 19:15 | Report Abuse

let's wait for tmr =)

Posted by xiaoji > 2015-08-14 15:04 | Report Abuse

what to wait today?

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-15 15:50 | Report Abuse

Any idea why quartely report not out?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-16 13:18 | Report Abuse

Not soon, earliest 18th. Most probably up until 25th ba.
All USD, euro n even Yen increased again RM on August. Would be an interesting quarter result 3 months later if RM maintain weakness.

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-16 14:05 | Report Abuse

Is it good to collect while others are throwing away or cut loss as you say.? After all weak RM should benefit Notion inspite of all the fear. Eventually even fear have to bottom out.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-16 21:27 | Report Abuse

It's overall panic.. Not everyone have the same motive. Maybe some on margin accounts, especially recent increase in price up to 48 cents. I believe a lot of the new comers don't have holding power I guess. Need to wait a month more, last time only Us(harddisk) strong, now euro(automotive) n Yen(camera) also stronger. Substantial forex gain if RM continue weak against all 3 currencies

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-17 00:06 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the clearer perspective.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-17 10:23 | Report Abuse

shares, it's all depend on your perspective. and your position, i average notion from 60 cents until now 47 cents. so rise a bit also, I can break even d. No one can give you exact correct or wrong view... so, still.. decide on your own, and assume all the forum posters want to con you :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-18 16:43 | Report Abuse

Just need a good rebound from bursa + good Q result. Not worth sell at this price~~ hold on to it..

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-18 17:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks. Dont mind holding. Dont know why overall market so panicky. RM drop shd benefit export companies. Unless it has a lot of foreign debt which is not the case. Definitely not similar to the situation in 97. Probably may buy in more. Looks like worth the gamble. Like u say at this price upside much more than downside.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-18 18:51 | Report Abuse

No results today :(

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-19 20:46 | Report Abuse

JCY just released its quarterly result. Earnings increased 30% mainly the result of the strong USD. Declared 1.25c dividend. Can we expect similar showing in Notion?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 10:34 | Report Abuse

No.. definitely not. Apr May months has FOREX GAIN(USD Falls after March MTM). June month has MTM again at 3.8(LOSS), overall, most probably have slight FOREX LOSS ~2-3million, depending on how many outstanding position they have at end of June.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 10:52 | Report Abuse

I mean forex wise la... overall should be a good Q. At least, should be equal to last Q's results + 12 million

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-20 13:18 | Report Abuse

i think forex wise, nett should be no gain nor loss for Q2.. Should be plus minus 1 mil max...

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-20 16:06 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta bro, u ready?

Posted by TAH > 2015-08-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

Start to move

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 16:27 | Report Abuse

:D this time wont sale so early anymore... lol

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 16:27 | Report Abuse

If fundamentals good, wont be able to pick back at lower price

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 16:40 | Report Abuse

suddenly so many ppl chase now.. dont understand the traders go sell go buy n sell n buy

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-20 16:54 | Report Abuse

If not because of the weak market sentiment and weak holders, it should float above 45.
Anyway, this is export company that ppl overlooked.. I recall in jan and may 2015, when oil crashed and rm dropped, export companies had a brief dip, after that followed with nice uptrend. Coz ppl realised, it doesn't matter if RM is weak, as the companies earn more and bring u profit. Jz let it be. Right now, for this time, the gloves makers, furniture maker, exporter not really being hit. But being rated with higer TP.

Btw Val-Elta, I wonder if u realise, the NAV of Notion, is more than 1.05, but i think u ad knew. That they nvr re-value their assets. Assets in Klang some more. Jz a rough guess, it's NAV should be 1.20 =)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 17:02 | Report Abuse

30% results coming to day, 35% tomorrow, 35% monday.. lol. Let's wait n see

Posted by TAH > 2015-08-20 17:14 | Report Abuse

Closing good, strong report coming,tomolo sure jump.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 18:31 | Report Abuse

2.71 EPS for this Q. Bingo guys :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 18:48 | Report Abuse

Eps 2.71 cent this q. Bingo guys... Not selling even for 60 cents. Lol

Posted by anonymousinvestor > 2015-08-20 19:57 | Report Abuse

I found a few interesting points to look into:

1) They purposely charged a high deferred tax in this Q, and that reduced the reported profit for this Q.
-> Otherwise this Q earning will be higher.

2) "We are still looking at the light asset strategy and will consider further disposals on a sale and leased back model when the market permits."
-> This will create more value from it's undervalued assets
-> Their NAV is not only 1.08 as reported but more, which I believe around 1.20

3) "The Group will simply focus on the current business segments and invest accordingly to the market demand and growth. Due to the positive currency scenario, the Group will remain operationally profitable going forward."
-> The group is confident with their operation will be profitable in future, GOING FORWARD.

My humble short term TP: above 0.70
I hope it will hit 1.00 in mid - long term.

Hope I'll not be wrong =)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 20:15 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately, I'm right and the chairman of notion is wrong. :/ their hp business is written off at 500k loss. At least that settles it..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 20:16 | Report Abuse

It's hp business, unfortunately in this case ends up exactly as i predicted.. lol

Posted by leo218 > 2015-08-20 20:17 | Report Abuse

made 7 M profit after tax http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/4835173

Posted by blacktulip > 2015-08-20 21:10 | Report Abuse

Congrats, Val-Elta, results close to your estimate.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 21:26 | Report Abuse

Deferred tax is not purposely charged. it's to take a hit now to ensure u have money to pay for the tax next year. This tax is on their forex M2M gain, and also RPGT.

Something like our monthly tax deduction, PCB.
What u earn for this month, is already taxed, regardless of what happens year end.

Of course, the defered tax can and will change as the profit changes in future too I think.. I need to admit I'm not too sure how to read the books at this point, too many 1 off events for my liking.
Fundamental hidden...

What is positive now.
There is plan to consolidate their factories, they mentioned they will relocate the machines on the sold factory to an existing one. I think they will rent for at most 2 years. If not only 1 year. This one is agreed, else long term selling and leasing back is not a good deal.

Fundamentals.
Camera is back. We can say a bottom is reached, and moving on, camera sales will be more or less at 18million per Q on average. I purposely took a 10% cut from this current Q's camera sales as an average for the future.

HDD. A drop in HDD sales which was not expected. A big drop too. I will assume no growth, and just maintain at 25m per Q in future.

Automotive. Again I'll assume no changes in automotive sales at 17m per Q.

Total sales, 60m per Q.
5m profit per Q.
20m profit per year.

Moving on, at a worst case scenario, I'm expecting 5m net profit per Q.
At this calculation, min TP of 10x EPS is 73 cents.

My targets for Camera, HDD and Auto above should be 'reasonable' targets, assuming no growth and no drop. And please Notion BODs, dont go jumping into new business that you have no idea of. As Richard Branson said when he created virgin coke to fight coca cola,(and of course lost badly) only enter a market if you're really able to disrupt it completely.

I may take a day off work and go to the next AGM just to tell him this. LOL. but it's a long wait i think....

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 21:31 | Report Abuse

Val-Elta: Thks a lot.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 21:32 | Report Abuse

The BOD just need to mind their own business, keep it at 60-70m per Q, that's perfect d.. Don't go think too big risky stuffs. Focus back on entering aerospace market which I believe is where the money is. Notion has excess capacity, and healthy margin.. can throw a bit margin to get entry to aerospace, or even to expand and get more design wins from existing customers..

actually, now someone may shoot me. (LOL) Getting a hedge at 4.2-4.3 is not too bad! Hahahaha. realistically, can RM really be at 4.2-4.3++ for the next two years+?

It should strengthen a bit really... I really doubt it'll weak until hit 4.6 per USD loh... 1% chance?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

There is still a LOT of hedging.. however at ~RM30 million hedge realised per Quarter. This matches ~24-30m of HDD business per Q as well. You can say that the dollar received from Western Digital will be almost enough to go to the banks.. also, Euro and Yen gained 10% over RM too in August. This should be about enough to cover the USD M2M loss in the next Q results.

We will really only see a perfect healthy Notion 6 months later.....

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-08-20 21:43 | Report Abuse

Although we were not happy, as small shareholders, we have to swallow and pay for the stupid wrong decision by BOD on silver investment. But the superb stupid BOD did not learn a lesson from their stupid decision in silver and now forced all shareholders to pay for his stupid decision in hp biz. If he is a man, he should use his own money to pay for his second stupid mistake. Even Tom, Dick and Harry on the streets know that hp retailing biz is not suitable for Notion at all, this stupid Too does not know it? I doubt there was some fishy thing behind where public money was siphoned out thru these kind of idiot stupid biz decisions.
Sigh! Even if the price shot up 100%, I am still bleeding like hell. No hope loh.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 21:51 | Report Abuse

Like i said, it depends on each as well. initially i buy at 70 cents too. but after the crash, i keep averaging down. While I don't know what's a good price to sell, I do know what's a good price to buy. That helps a bit. If I'm you, I'll probably average in at 40-42 ranges if the opportunity comes again when the price drops.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2015-08-20 21:53 | Report Abuse

Notion at 40cent and below is insane seller price. Even if they earn only 1 EPS per Q, that's 40 cent at 10xEPS d...
I kept average in the past few months. I wont expect a rocket up to 0.70.... there should be some chance to average down, but your strategy should fit your own investing profile..