I'm just being realistic at the moment, like i say, currently based on what we know, that would be a realistic price. Unless it have an earning of 2.5sen per share in the next q. EPS of 2.5 sen per share is like almost a 50% increase in net profit QoQ. Could it jump so high in just 1 quarter? Maybe, but is it possible so fast, not likely.
Also, manufacturing will have to pay foreign worker levy starting this year. So there is some negative aspect to offset the positive aspect as well. These is still some uncertainty and I'm surprised suddenly everybody is all positive about notion earning big bucks.
I'm just saying in short term (under what we know in the current situation) i don't put it past 72cents max. If it announced a 2c++ next Q, then yes, 80c is possible.
Price start to rise everyone say it will keep rising... Personally I think it should be very good. Provided management hedges all revenue at usd myr at rm4.4
notion need no hedging to protect their profit at the moment,even if forex retreat to neutral level(like RM4-4.1),EBITDA and cash flow will remain strong going forward.
not to forget donald trump will become US president after 10 day,he intent to normalize US rate sooner,this should be a very significant factor to support USD,since US only at very early stage of normalization,should rise interest rate 2-3 time P.A for 2017 and 2018.
When notion thread suddenly have ppl like Audi n bigbos posting, time to be afraid :P But seriously I'm impressed by the support so far. This round of purchase is supported quite well by either a single person with big pocket/funds or a lot of small persons
I think it is best to follow your own profit/loss plan. plus you trade with your own money. Sorry for my 1st statement if it encourage or discourage anyone.
Timing of the TP announcement is after the big buy activities have pushed it up to 69c. A bit of a coincidence, and could be someone knows abt the kenanga TP
banker start to sell............. you can see the volume between 0.68-0.71............ who go to chase be careful............ notion-wb one day 100% of cause take profit
U look u will know the strategy now that it has happened. The accumulation happened and then the TP from kenanga is 'published' after accumulation ended, the TP from kenanga is still saying 85c TP. Assuming the kenanga report is targeted at the general public, u will get an idea on how the play happened.
The sustained buying power in this case seems to be from someone with inside knowledge of what is abt to happen next, with the dividend announcement and then with this TP revision. I'm not normally one to talk abt speculative things like this (I'm more of a fundamental guy) but now that the story is almost finished I think most of us can see the 'strategy' that went into this bull run...
I will salute kenanga if they revise the TP while it was still at 40c. But publishing it after it hit 69? @@ so convenient for them to change the TP by up to 100% just over 2 months since the last q announcement?
Take the above with a grain of salt, just my own deduction from the way that pieces seems to fall in nicely one by one.. of course it could all be a coincidence only.
If you buy based on only 2 things - 1. Broker's BUY recommendation & 2.How optimistic the rising share price makes you feel, I can almost guarantee your portfolio will be full of share bought at near the highest prices of the year.
normally,business up-cycle could take atless 2-3year,if not longer.
as the case of notion,their had suffer down-cycle for last 5 year,and based on current indicators,like business progress,financial result and financial status,i do believe the new business up-cycle was just started,so the uptrend will continue for coming years even it might take slower pace,unless next month result is much above expectation and TP revise up again by IB.
personally,i think notion still quite undervalue even after recent rally,cos even at 70cen,it is only trading at expected DY of 4.3%-5.7%,and market cap/EBITDA of 3.5x,still one of the lowest(if not lowest) among 900++ listed company.
Mr.Thoo re-emerge as substantial shareholder again,even at higher price. i remember when he sell shares 2 years ago,he promised he'll come back,now he honor the promise,i take it as good sign as he is willing to buy more share at near to 70cen per pieces.
Lets take a look at notion's past. It was traded at 15 - 20c many years ago when its par value was 10c. Later there was a 5 to 1 consolidation to make its par value 50c. This was when notion shot up from rm1 plus to over rm2. It was a darling of the market then, gaining recomendation form analyst even though its share price was way beyond rm2. The hedging fiasco brought notion price plummeting to below 40c during the last few years. It WAS a pariah until last few weeks when its financial showed some improvement and div payment materialised. Will notion return to its past glory? 70c is high if you r looking at 36c but is still cheap if we r talking its heydays price of rm2. What's your take on the present scenario? A million dollar question literally.
In term of Par Value, "brain" is right, it is now 0.50 from 0.10 many years ago. In term of high price at RM2, I have doubt that "brain" has forgotten to adjust price for bonus issue 3: 4 in Apr 2012.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sherlock
306 posts
Posted by sherlock > 2017-01-09 15:59 | Report Abuse
10%-20% upside?val-elta,probably you should reassess notion.