net cash position is a myopic way of looking at a company... what is the point of having a net-cash position (cash less loans) but the liability side is loaded with provisions? don't forget the company has provisions such as tax liability + provision for bumi penalties.... All these will seep into the so-called net cash position....
beware of desmond lim counters...true true true... those GOB long timers would know - how the share was goreng upwards until RM1.30++...and then, left to crash to RM0.80 - that was during early 2014....
But then, we are just 10 cents above rights issue....so, one can say - the downside risk is pretty minimal....
Applying Benjamin Graham's net net position, this company is worth the very least = RM0.80 and at this price - investors are getting Batu Kawan Land + Jalan Ampang land for free...
kancs, there is no rule says a listed company must be traded above its worth or near its worth. therefore you have seen it drop below Right issue of 50c for a prolong period.
kancs, we all know the land on the books is worth something. But if nothing is done on those assets, no value will be created for the shareholders. Property counters like GOB should be traded like an earnings play. If you were to trade it as an asset play,be prepared to be disappointed because the share price may never reach the fundamental value. And ALL property counters in Malaysia is supposedly trading at a discount from RNAV. Now, traders should enjoy the ride until the train stops. See you at RM1
@ bursabullaways, you are right...somebody once commented (after the RM1.30++ crash in 2014 for GOB)....that desmond lim counters - are not meant to be traded on...but to hold for the long term... will never forget this advice... :-)
About unlocking the land value; actually, it was written very clearly in The Star newspapers that the proceeds from disposal of Da'mein was not meant to be distributed back to the shareholders as dividends - but used to repay the RM280.0M loan + working capital.
By working capital - i think it is earmarked for Jalan Ampang. Based on the agreement with Lembaga Getah, there is a stipulated timeline for GOB to start building once DBKL has given the go-ahead or once the JV agreement has been signed (forgot which one...need to refer back to bursa announcement). If not, Lembaga Getah can exit from the JV agreement.
Obviously, GOB has intention to develop this land. If not, they will not rope in a foreign partner to finance the project. But now, with the money from disposal of Da'mein, they may not even need that foreign partner to finance their Jalan Ampang project. This means more profits for GOB.
About Batu Kawan land, really have no idea when they will develop this land...
if there is no special dividend, no capital repayment of any kind, the sales of Daimen of whatever price will only feed your fantasy of the target price and left many room for imagination while desmond lim will screw as many assholes as possible.
The F&B business in China is actually a Grandmama store located in Pavillion Dalian. Quite similar to Pavillion KL. But Grandmama is nothing special...the food so - so only.
Cannot fight with Penang Laksa or Penang Char Koay Teow or Penang Chendol. But of course...anywhere i go, Penang food is still the best...no one come close....but in all fairness, the Grandmama business in Pavillion is quite ok lar...lunch time - got quite a crowd...but this KL crowd never been to Penang yet - like virgin never have sex before....if they know better...
During AGM, management states need to wait for one more year to breakeven and make profit for F&B....so, we wait and see lor....
Flintstones, every investment and valuation method has its own risk. Among all, PE, PB, DCF and others, there are many assumptions involved. I can simply pull out 100 stocks which was based on PE and also did not perform.
My point is... valuing based on net cash is the most conservative...
how can the reasonable price of WA = 30cents? Assuming if a leverage of 3, this means that the mother share should be 90 cents? But the warrant is already in the money.
if u are a fan of GOB-WA, theoretically 1 sen increase in GOB should lead to 1 sen increase in GOB-WA. This is because the conversion ratio is one-to-one but its expiry date is still long (more than 4 years)
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Flintstones
1,762 posts
Posted by Flintstones > 2015-09-25 20:04 | Report Abuse
I am sorry but trading a share based on net cash is a dangerous proposition. Remember ICAP is trading below its net cash per share too.