Posted by Ahlian > 2023-11-22 19:04 | Report Abuse

It seems like all the company directors is collecting at This price level, and the institutional is selling thier holding, Who Shall we trust in? 😂

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-11-23 06:25 | Report Abuse

Thanks Sardin. Got it loud and clear. Great insights as always. Appreciate it mate. Cheers.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-11-23 07:58 | Report Abuse

Ahlian, we should trust ourselves. We are responsible for the profit
n loss of our investments not others.

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-11-23 09:19 | Report Abuse

There, is no right or wrong.
1 Director decide the company future growth.
2 Institutional decide the share values.
3 Small investors like us decide to invest in or not and how much to invest.
Factor 1 and 2is equally important ya.

Posted by JrWarren > 2023-11-23 09:33 | Report Abuse

TO further enhance investor determination:
a) The last mid-term lucrative dividend distribution was 25/08/2014, Interim Extraordinary Special Dividend of 75 sen. At the end of FY2014, total of RM1.65 dividend declared. After 9 years, same type of dividend is back.
b) In 3Q2023 report - Prospect and Outlook, the company concluded with the following statement "Based on the current palm oil prices and the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY."

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-11-23 09:43 | Report Abuse

Marvelous, during that year there's is no expansion ya, lets see the 1st Qtr result next year 24. If current CPO can sustain at current level. And with additional crop output. What will the profit ya? 🤔

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-23 09:45 | Report Abuse

Hi Ahlian, there is another one:
The power of sustainable above average dividend yield which allow the stock to fetch reasonable return with financing. As I believe there is a opportunity gap there so this "lubang" will be filled very soon. We small investors will never have enough fund to buy 8 million shares of UTD that worth approximately 136 million ringgit that were sold since the announcement of dividend. So there must be other big fund behind the scene that are buying. Otherwise price won't be able to close at the same price 16.90 for two days at such volume. And those funds must have concluded that the value is considerably beyond 16.90 before they buy. As for selling, reasons could be many. So chance is thick that this is a buy opportunity. Also, the buyer wont surface until he has accumulated 5% of the total shareholding, unlike the big seller with above 5% shareholding is always on the spot light. This should be part of our thoughts too.

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-11-23 09:51 | Report Abuse

I recapture, the record dividend in 2014 was the result of the the expanding back in 2008 into Indonesia plantations purchase. It took 6 year to harvesting the purchase.

Posted by Ahlian > 2023-11-23 09:53 | Report Abuse

So We might expect next year the record dividend hopefully, as the last expansion come in year 2018.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-23 10:13 | Report Abuse

I suspect this too. As you can see the number of workers increased even after 24% of productivity improvement through mechanisation.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-23 10:15 | Report Abuse

They are not yet fully up-skilled. Imagine when they are fully up-skilled, what kind of output is that?

Posted by JrWarren > 2023-11-23 13:00 | Report Abuse

Based on my past experience, I learned that 6% of dividend yield is the sweet spot for most investor (similar to EPF return except u cant take out EPF money) and the share price always self-correct to match this 6% benchmark. UTDPLT also showed similar correction in 2015 (u received FY2014 dividend in 2015) which averaged priced at RM26. RM1.65 divided RM26 = 6.3%. U can find similar 6% theory on Maybank, LPI, and other dividend stock for reference purpose.

Using the same 6% theory and assume current Q3 EPS of RM1.22 distributed as dividend, you will get RM20.33 as expected future share price. I cant tell Q4 result, so I will take RM20.33 as reference price.

Disclaimer: Above comment is for purely for reference and not a buy-sell advice. You are responsible for your own research and your buy-sell decision.

Posted by Hemsley > 2023-11-23 14:00 | Report Abuse

EPF also selling. Maybe wait for a while.

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-23 15:02 | Report Abuse

When does EPF give us dividend?

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-23 15:03 | Report Abuse

Only once a year, right?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-23 22:35 | Report Abuse

Hi JrWarren, is that possible that directors already at this point of time have the information of commodity future contract for year 2024 which are not yet disclosed to the public?

Posted by JrWarren > 2023-11-24 09:14 | Report Abuse

@Sardin, it's possible because when UP selling forward contract, the CPO price is locked TODAY and deliver in next 3 / 6 /9 month. Therefore, they can project their profit & cash flow with 90% accuracy. Hence, the sufficient cashflow and the accuracy of cashflow projection gave the management confidence to declare high dividend. In the past, I never see the quarterly report expressed the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY.

When Ukraine war started, CPO price at record high (RM 5-7k), but UP quarterly report still showing average selling price of RM4k+ , at that time I am sure these forward contract were negotiated with buyer so UP & buyer both benefit from the reasonable cost vs revenue. Maybe most of them is long term customer.

As compared to the company selling at spot price, future CPO price movement is unpredictable and hence the profit & cash flow also unpredictable. I owned Inno and UP, last year Inno declared very good dividend, but this year so so; on the opposite UP last year dividend was fine but this year dividend is expected to be Great.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-11-24 10:43 | Report Abuse

This is a very well manage company, financially, technology n ESG wise.
They are now replanting with high yield palm tree. Long term, their
Malaysia plantation yield will be around 6.5.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 11:13 | Report Abuse

At that time do their current refinery capacity able to digest all the output?

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-11-24 11:40 | Report Abuse

I don't think it's a problem, when their yield is above 6, they are still
buying from others.

Posted by JrWarren > 2023-11-24 14:49 | Report Abuse

@Sardin - Conclusion quoted from the report "Based on the current palm oil prices and ***the Company’s efforts on securing the budgeted crop in the final quarter of 2023***, the Board of Directors expects that the results for the year will be very SATISFACTORY"

Therefore, Q4 output is worry free.

Finger cross.

Posted by lpalani49 > 2023-11-24 15:32 | Report Abuse

Can someone please confirm, is the dividend declared now is 40 + 40 = 80 cents or only 40 cents?

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 16:02 | Report Abuse

Hi JrWarren, I never worry about Q4. This dividend is announced just recently and I think cash balance MUST be very high and cash flow MUST be very strong in current quarter (Q4). What is really important is to know about 2024. The average CPO selling price is in uptrend 100+ every quarter from Q1 to Q3. And I think biggest leap will be in Q4 and next year average selling price to be 4000 or higher.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 16:07 | Report Abuse

Ipalani49, 40 + 40 = 80. Go pick some, thanks to EPF. :)

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 16:08 | Report Abuse

I hope Ipalani49 is not the EPF officer behind the trading.

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-24 16:16 | Report Abuse

Does anybody know, when EPF will give us the dividend?

Posted by Amazonboy > 2023-11-24 17:33 | Report Abuse

Feb 2024

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-24 18:09 | Report Abuse

Thank you, @Amazonboy

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 18:21 | Report Abuse

Congrats

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-24 18:47 | Report Abuse

Thanks

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-24 22:04 | Report Abuse

EPF is selling while this buddy is withdrawing EPF money to buy back... 😆

Posted by Amazonboy > 2023-11-24 22:13 | Report Abuse

Invest in UP long term u will make more than epf 5% divvy

Posted by Mabel > 2023-11-24 22:57 | Report Abuse

Please to see that United Plantations Berhad (UTDPLT) reward us with a dividend yield of 11%, which is higher than any Malaysian bank in Malaysia. For comparison, let compare UTDPLT with Malaysian Biggest Bank, Maybank.

Payout ratio: This is the percentage of earnings that a company pays out as dividends to its shareholders. A higher payout ratio means that the company is distributing more of its earnings as dividends, while a lower payout ratio means that the company is retaining more of its earnings for reinvestment or growth. United Plantations has a payout ratio of 68.4%, while Maybank has a payout ratio of 43.9%. This means that United Plantations is paying out more of its earnings as dividends than Maybank, which contributes to its higher dividend yield.

Valuation: This is the measure of how much the market is willing to pay for a company’s shares, based on its earnings, assets, growth, and other factors. A higher valuation means that the company’s shares are more expensive relative to its earnings, while a lower valuation means that the company’s shares are cheaper relative to its earnings. United Plantations has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.12, while Maybank has a P/E ratio of 13.77. This means that United Plantations is trading at a lower valuation than Maybank, which contributes to its higher dividend yield.

Earnings growth: This is the measure of how much a company’s earnings are increasing or decreasing over time, which reflects its profitability, performance, and potential. A higher earnings growth means that the company is generating more profits and has more room to increase its dividends, while a lower earnings growth means that the company is generating less profits and has less room to increase its dividends. United Plantations has a quarterly earnings growth of 19.8%, while Maybank has a quarterly earnings growth of -1.4%. This means that United Plantations has a more stable and positive earnings growth than Maybank, which contributes to its higher dividend yield.

Summing up..

United Plantations has higher dividend yield than Maybank because it distributes more earnings, trades at lower valuation, and grows earnings more steadily. This shows United Plantations is cheaper, profitable, and dividend-friendly than Maybank.

To Our Success!

Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2023-11-24 22:58 | Report Abuse

United Plantations Berhad
UTDPLT
Share Price 7 Day 1 Year
16.90 0.5% 15.9%

Upcoming dividend of RM0.80 per share at 11% yield
Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 November 2023.
Payment date: 14 December 2023.
Payout ratio is a comfortable 68% and the cash payout ratio is 76%.
Trailing yield: 11%.
Within top quartile of Malaysian dividend payers (5.0%).
Higher than average of industry peers (3.5%).

Source: Simple Wall Street

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-25 00:01 | Report Abuse

Let EPF push for higher yield... I am just curious how much EPF can do, how hard and how far it can hit and is authorised to hit.

Posted by Amazonboy > 2023-11-25 10:48 | Report Abuse

Epf shareholding in UP is dropping...if they keep selling will drop <5% ....retail investors are buying the shares now

Posted by i3lurker > 2023-11-25 11:25 | Report Abuse

The Directors bought it up high high for EPF to sell high high. 😉

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-25 16:05 | Report Abuse

What benefit would it bring to the directors if the shares change hand from EPF to retail investors? Most likely is that it already reach its target price to sell determined earlier on and they just carry out the plan faithfully. There might be a gap between research and execution. Probably they will buy back or sell more after they have updated their research. Or maybe they found some other more attractive plantation stock to invest since they cover many plantation companies, not just one. Under certain condition, less efficient plantation stocks profit more than efficient plantation although under steady market condition the efficient one usually profits more.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-25 16:25 | Report Abuse

One of the advantage EPF has is they have unlimited life span. EPF does not die at 70 years, 80 years or 100 years. Therefore their patience is unlimited when it comes to stock investment. They don't mind a value trap or low dividend payout, etc. They can afford to play value investment where they don't mind a very long time to realise the gain as long as they feel that could be finally a good gain. They don't mind if the stock skyrocket only after 10 years. Therefore EPF has a lot more good investment options than us. So I said we cannot rule out the possibility they move the fund to where they perceive to have greater potential. But what I believe more is gap between research and execution because I believe their biggest problem is to find a long-term good investment than facing a choice of allocating very limited capital.

Posted by Mabel > 2023-11-26 09:31 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2023/11/25/india-asks-for-six-million-tonnes-of-palm-oil-from-m039sia-says-dpm

India is the largest importer of Malaysia’s CPO and they really need our help as Shah Rukh Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Aamir Khan, Salman Khan, Kajol, Priyanka Chopra, Deepika Padukone etc needs help urgently. Their Capati and Tossie does not taste the same without Mabel Oil.

Right now Malaysia can only be able to export about four million tonnes to the country. Sarawak, please work harder, we need to increase another 2 million tonnes.

Mabel Oil Production: MPOA 1-20 October 2023
Peninsular Malaysia: (+) 4.83%
Sabah: (+) 4.26%
Sarawak: (-) 0.54%
East Malaysia: (+) 2.99%
Total Malaysia: (+) 4.14%

Mabel, the FarMeow

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-27 11:36 | Report Abuse

I'm very confident with this company. Share price ... go .. run run to RM25 :-)

Posted by BudiLee > 2023-11-27 11:36 | Report Abuse

and beyond :-)

Posted by lionel messi > 2023-11-27 11:49 | Report Abuse

Really? Don't be over confident man. Have some prudency. There's always a caveat somewhere.

Posted by moven00 > 2023-11-27 12:18 | Report Abuse

When market is too confident, the opposite will happen.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-27 12:26 | Report Abuse

I am very sure it is very bearish now.

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-27 12:30 | Report Abuse

After dividend some other people will sell also... so the bear will probably stay there for another week.

Posted by ooihk899 > 2023-11-27 12:35 | Report Abuse

Good for long term investor ma, can collect at cheaper price😋😄

Posted by Sardin > 2023-11-27 13:00 | Report Abuse

Recently Sime Darby output increases a lot. Hope it doesn't cause the CPO stock balance to increase too much. 😅

Posted by Hemsley > 2023-11-27 14:21 | Report Abuse

Too late to read your comment, Sardin. I just jump in.

Posted by KClow > 2023-11-27 15:25 | Report Abuse

Good suuckers@sardin n gang
Sell to me. I buy