Value estimation after restructure, CCM=1.40/3=0.46, 3unitCCM@3*1.40=RM4.20, 3units CCM will only get 1.219unit CCMDBIO, finally RM4.20(3unit CCM Before Restructure)-RM0.46(CCM Price After Restructure)-RM2.68(1.219*RM2.20CCMDBIO Market Price)=Loss (RM1.06)
CCM deleveraging should 1) unearth the earnings of chemicals and polymers divisions 2) reduce interest and admin cost by RM15-20mil per annum 3) potential boost dividend yield to 8.6-12.1% per annum Our SOP derived fair value at RM2.10 provides a potential upside of 37.30%
Hey guys, just wondering for those of us to bought CCM much earlier, just noticed my total share qty has been reduced. When will we be able to see CCMDBIO in our acc?
Went through the full list of china products targeted by US tariff. None of the CCM products are in the list. The targeted products are actually from high tech industries mainly from advanced information technology, robotics, aircraft, new energy vehicles, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, advanced materials, agricultural machinery, shipbuilding and marine engineering and advanced rail equipment industries.
Refer to link below (there is a direct link to the full 1,300 products targeted by US).
I think investors are just worried on the trade war between China and US. I believe the impact of the trade war for the company's main product which is Caustic soda will be limited to the US, China and and in particular the Malaysia markets. Import of caustic soda from China to the US is actually very limited.
For the Malaysia market in particular, demand for caustic soda is expected to grow by another 100,000 MT in 2019 once the Rapid Refinery starts to operate. Currently the Malaysian market for caustic soda is around 430,000 MT of which 290,000 MT is being sourced by local suppliers (mainly CCM and Malay Sino Chemical) while the rest by import.
This show there is a supply demand gap for our market. With the start of Rapid this will actually be an advantage to CCM in particular as it already has a facility plant in Pasir Gudang (which they currently in the process of expanding to prepare the sudden expected demand surge from Rapid in 2019). The other main caustic soda player, Malay Sino has 2 plants located in Lahat (Perak) and Kemaman (Terengganu).
Investor will need to faced the volatility at the moment due to the trade war rhetoric between China and US.
2Q18 result is expected to show improvement vs 2Q17 result as have shown by other Chemical company in malaysia and globally.
Debt will actually significantly reduce in 4Q18 via the proceeds of disposal of 3 parcel of land in Shah Alam to Global Vision for RM190mil and the disposal of Pangen Biotech to CCM Diopharma for RM59.2mil. Both disposal was completed back in 2Q18.
Assuming no other debt to be raised, net debt should fall to around 40-50mil only which translate to a net gearing of 0.16x.
Feel free to comment. Appreciate any other views or input on this company.
Another thing that i would like to highlight is the Cash Flow that the company generated from operation in 1Q18 which amounts to RM26mil. Hard to find companies with a low valuation and generating positive cash flow at the moment. Hope they can sustained this and grow the cash flow even further in 2019.
For me it is currently the cheapest company that an investor could buy into for an exposure to the Rapid project and also the rubber glove industry (they are one of the supplier of calcium nitrate under the Polymer division to the gloves industry). Basically an increase of capacity by the glove industries actually bodes really well for companies like CCM (there are other companies as well but CCM for me is the cheapest at the moment). They also supply liquid chlorine to the glove industries.
Assuming a PAT of RM40mil (this is actually a more conservative projection. The CEO expect the PAT to actually double in FY 2019 which should be around RM50mil), current valuation is only 6.7x PE.
Average forward PAT for Gloves company is around 20xPE. Other malaysian chemical companies is currently trading at double digit PE.
Sorry late reply. Had a busy weekend this time round.
Currently, in the malaysia market there is no direct comparable for CCM. The other main caustic soda supplier is Malay Sino Chemical Sdn Bhd which is privately held by Batu Kawan Berhad (however, this company's earning is mainly derive by its plantation division, so basically it's actually plantation company).
The closest comparable that we have at the moment are the Malaysian public listed chemical related companies such as Luxchem (PE 15.1x), Pchem (17.4x), Lctitan (10.1x), Nylex (6.9x), Samchem (9.9x) and KGB (14.7x). The average PE multiples of these companies are 12.4x.
Using the industry average PE of 12.4 x and FY19 PAT target of RM40mil this translate to a market cap of RM496mil or RM 2.97/ share.
Anyway, the current valuation now is still undemanding if compared to other listed chemical companies. I just don't see why the market needs to put a big discount on CCM given the potential growth that it can reap once the RAPID refinery in Pasir Gudang starts operation in 2019 (CCM main plant is also located in Pasir Gudang. Malay Sino, the other main supplier of caustic soda has plants in Kemaman and Lahat).
Feel free to comment. Appreciate the any input that you have on this company.
I need to highlight certain things for the 2nd quarter 2018 that was just reported earlier.
The PAT of RM5.3 mil is actually inclusive of a RM4.1mil gain on disposal of Shah Alam lands as well as the Real Property Gain Tax that are associated to the disposal amounting to RM9.3mil.
If we were to take both of these non recurring items out, the PAT would actually amount to RM10.5mil which is not that far from what was recorded in the 1st quarter of 2018. Both the Chemical and Polymer divisions have shown improvement in the revenue as well as profit before tax for the 2nd quarter.
Please refer to Note A9: Segment Reporting located in page 9 of the financial report (Below are the extract for continuing ops. I have excluded the results of the pharmaceutical division, which is now actually under CCM Duopharma)
Revenue 2Q18 vs 2Q17
Chemical : RM 76.65m vs RM 65.14m
Polymer : RM 23.04m vs RM 19.48m
Others : (RM 0.67m) vs (RM 0.20m)
Total: RM 99.01m vs RM 84.42m
PBT 2Q18 vs 2Q17
Chemical: RM 12.63m vs RM 9.94m
Polymer: RM 5.10m vs RM 4.59m
Others : (RM1.36m) vs (RM 11.49m)
Total : RM 16.37m vs RM 3.04m
As you can see, both the divisions have actually reported better revenue and PBT compared to last year. Hopefully this will continue in the second half of the year as well.
Appreciate any input on the matter especially if i had missed any other information that might be important.
Summary data in portals typically cannot do justice in a comparative where a whole business segment/division has been hived off. Hence deep red where it should be very green for CCM for Rev, PBT, PAT. The gem is still hidden.
Net Profit 2Q18 vs 2Q17, from page 1 of the QR:
PAT 2Q17 0.288m (including CCM Duopharma's 9.632m = 9.920m)
Likewise 3Q18, based on current positivity in consecutive quarters, should surpass 3Q17's Revenue of 88.118m and PAT 1.150m (not the 8.199m which includes pharma's 7.049m). Ditto for 4Q18 vs 4Q17.
No i did not invest in CCMDBIO. For the health manufacturer sector i prefer AHEALTH or Apex healthcare.
AHEALTh valuation is currently at 17.9x 12 months rolling Earning vs CCMD 19.5xPE.
The growth story for APEX are :
1) New oral dosage plant (to be commission by 4Q18) which will double the oral dosage capacity.
2) Potential penetration into the Europe drug market given the company's recent EU good manufacturing practice certificate award early this year.
3) Expiry of the current govt concession for generic drugs by Nov 2019. Currently APEX revenue from this segment only represent 5% of total group rev. Most of the rev actually comes from the private sectors (private hospitals etc)
My FY19 PAT target is around RM60mil which values the company at around 15.2x PE.
Please take not that the company has basically ZERO debt (at least as at 30 June 2018).
The drop is actually because of higher tax which relates to the RPGT for the disposal of Shah Alam land. The RPGT was RM9.3mil (which is non recurring).
If you take that out, PAT would actually show growth (even if you include CCMDBIO profit in 2Q17).
PAT excluding non recurring items (gain on disposal of land & RPGT on disposal of land) would have been RM10.5mil.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
babyinvester
25 posts
Posted by babyinvester > 2017-09-05 20:38 | Report Abuse
when will the proposal conducted?