Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 13:17 | Report Abuse

that why we still can find some super sifu with many followers or subscribers coming out to shout . it is less now because I had already warned them not to do that, if not there is no reason i can't consider it is pump and dump......

Posted by ooihk899 > 2017-06-24 13:25 | Report Abuse

aseng, What about MFM n Deleum, also KKY goreng meh?

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-06-24 13:29 | Report Abuse

share does not have involve in profit margin revenue. it all about we more buy and company try to rise it or rose it. profit revenue just a show for us attract us. is that right?

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-06-24 13:30 | Report Abuse

i see lot company have good profit like genm yet share keep up and drop maintain

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 13:36 | Report Abuse

NO ! not KYY goreng
some big kaki goreng.....
since the FA is there just create the TA , then shouting kuat-kuat.. Job done



Posted by ooihk899 > Jun 24, 2017 01:25 PM | Report Abuse

aseng, What about MFM n Deleum, also KKY goreng meh?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 13:40 | Report Abuse

probability,

this statement is very wise and appropriate in your calculation


"...just use a rough estimate for each month...end or starting values has no meaning...we are not talking about stock loss..."

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 13:45 | Report Abuse

probility sifu,

is this the graph that inspired you to construct the milk story to explain the unsolved puzzle

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 13:51 | Report Abuse

no puzzle on the milk business model aseng...
the puzzle was the market selling price of the cheese made out of the milk...and the skimmed milk selling price.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 13:53 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 14:02 | Report Abuse

this is the part most difficult to match with the graph

"....precisely the margin the market offers for cheese and skimmed milk on top of the fresh milk...."

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 14:41 | Report Abuse

a sure win business model. ......

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 14:53 | Report Abuse

this is the part that you need a foolproof mechanism to ensure thing always work in your favour......

".....You buy Fresh milk from the cow owner and sell the skimmed milk at the margins the market is offering...."

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 14:58 | Report Abuse

anyhow with data worked out by newmaster from the graph provided by jay it is quite safe to guess that the coming quarter eps can not be bad, another 40 sen is achievable

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 15:00 | Report Abuse

similarly my girl friend will also perform another exciting show .....

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:21 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, my maid has not reverted to me yet. Would update once available.........hahaha.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:29 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, maid can be multi-tasking too at times !

Hope the following estimated crack spreads are also helpful for your "Kung Fu" presentation this evening :

2016 :
Jan : -9.7
Feb : -9.8
Mar : -10.2
Apr : -11.0
May : -11.3
June : -10.9
July : - 10.4
Aug : - 10.2
Sept : -10.5
Oct : - 10.1
Nov : -8.6
Dec : -7.8

Cheers !

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 16:34 | Report Abuse

what a nice maid....give her some treat!
guess the above is approximate average for fuel oil 180cst.

do ask her to give the average for Gasoline if you had only provided closing month end figures instead of approximate avg earlier.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 16:35 | Report Abuse

probability sifu and newmaster sifu,

well done!!!
jia-you !!!
many kisses !!!

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:38 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, maid wants me to do housework instead now !! Hahahahaha........., how ??

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 16:39 | Report Abuse

thats more relaxing...i suggest you take the offer:)

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:42 | Report Abuse

And maid is gonna to manage the investments too later, is it a good idea ?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-24 16:46 | Report Abuse

newmaster,

make sure your maid doesn't read the graph upside down .....

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:49 | Report Abuse

So, aseng gor you started to lose confidence in the figures extracted ??

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 16:50 | Report Abuse

i just counter checked ...she did pretty well...her average figures looks acccurate. its perfectly allright

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:51 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, this maid has nice figure too !

Posted by probability > 2017-06-24 16:53 | Report Abuse

Newmaster...dont allow aseng to lose focus...

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:55 | Report Abuse

That's why don't play play with the maid, can be multi-tasking when requested.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 16:57 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, remember to focus on the presentation and we are all waiting. thanks in advance.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-24 17:32 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, we all understand this is just a rough indication of analysis against other variables which are uncertain and not possible to be entirely accurately assessed. And I'm sure many of us here are mature enough to sieve through the workout by you. After all, this is just an illustration based on several assumptions.

No obligation on your part to convince anyone. Instead, we appreciated and noted so much of your selfishlessly hard work here.

Posted by Superbjet > 2017-06-24 17:40 | Report Abuse

oops i bought it(petronM) again

Posted by cheoky > 2017-06-24 22:06 | Report Abuse

Seems like probability is expert into this refinery thing. I lost track... provided no drastic fall per unit time of crude oil, profit should able to offset inventory loss caused by crude price fall. Weekly price should be able to cost pass through to consumer. So, if bought low in petronm why not wait n c.....perhaps top up more....

Posted by Chong Jiunn Hau > 2017-06-24 23:39 | Report Abuse

It was written in their 2016 annual report:
"This volatility affected the Company’s margins as on average we hold about three to four weeks inventory. Since we account for inventory using the first-in, first-out method, any sharp increase or drop in oil prices could affect margins because we sell finished products produced or bought in previous periods."
Page 24, 1st paragraph
However, I still think that Petron is a good stock overall and market shall continue to grow in long run. We have to accept the periodicity of the crude oil price which affecting the margins of oil and gas related stocks in short term. Buy when it is low and sell when it is high. OR keep it long term to average out the fluctuation of crude oil price

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 00:17 | Report Abuse

probability sifu, thanks again for the in-depth presentation. You are truly the master of this commodity business inside out (frankly speaking, even Mr Ang may not be that competent as you in this calculation ). I am sure most readers (including me and of course the maid for sure) are not able to fully understand these rather complex calculations.

How about illustrating eps forecast for 2017 like what you did in HRC forum ? Most of here are eager to find out the quarterly earnings for this year in relation to the impact of changes in crack spreads amid fluctuating oil price. Care to share this part, if you don't mind ?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 00:38 | Report Abuse

Ok, probability sifu. Just go to have a long break (guess you are too tired by now). Meanwhile, let's us here screw the derivations for you the next few days.......oops typo should be read as scrutinise instead.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-25 01:31 | Report Abuse

walao..got secret admirer

Posted by Chong Jiunn Hau > 2017-06-25 01:39 | Report Abuse

Tell the management then. Be it CCS or FIFO margin, oil prices could affect the company margins as stated in the annual report. I just trying to be rationale here.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 08:59 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster probability, reallly appreciate your input which was spectacular, a round of applause for you Grandmaster !

First, could other G5 members (逍遥子, Jay, Sumato88, probablity, paperlane => G5 Team) validate and comment on the presentation. Any comments with basis here are welcome and deemed constructive !

This discussion will enable us to learn together and continue to understand the business better, let's roll, cheers !
25/06/2017 08:58

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 09:10 | Report Abuse

FYI, below is one of the recent comments posted by Sumato88 prior to the presentation. It appears to answer some of the questions in some readers' minds :

"Wow, just realized so many "experts" here talking about how oil price crash will erode Petronm's profit. Looks like everyone is worry about that. Believe it or not, I am still a believer and holding my shares in Petronm. I think time will tell who is right or wrong. As I said earlier, if you buy or sell Petronm's share based on oil price movement, my suggestion is to trade crude oil future.

I must admit that crude oil price movement does have impact to Petronm but the impact is only limited to its inventory holding (typically about 3 weeks) where management hedge half of it (makes sense to hedge as you source your crude from independent oil producer, unlike Shell Refining in the past where they don't hedge as they source from the parent co, this also explains the higher volatility of shell's profit)

I think the key to refining profit is still the refining margin where Jay pointed out correctly that 2Q17 refining margin is still better than 1Q17. Someone also pointed out that crude oil price crash from usd100/bbl in 2014 to 55 (average) and 44 (average) in 2015 and 2016 respectively but Petronm doesn't seem to be affected as it reported higher profit in 2015 (rm221m) and 2016 (rm238m).

Some of you may ask why? I attribute that to 3 factors, (1) refining margin is still the major profit driver, (2) whatever inventory gain and loss is 50% hedged, & (3) the inventory holding at any point in time is only 3 weeks, hence the inventory exposure is on 3 weeks rolling basis. That means the impact is limited to 3 weeks out of 52 weeks if oil price stabilizes after the sudden plunge. Oil price move up and down everyday, so refinery will have inventory gain or loss everyday. That is the reason why Petronm's 2015 & 2016 profit doesn't correlate with oil price crash.

And last but not least, I am still bullish on Petronm's retailing biz, which offers stable profit and growing volume. This is the jewel of the biz."

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 09:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Chong Jiunn Hau, your query may already be answered here :

Check out Grandmaster probability's post earlier :

"From Jay's table, we can derive the following:

PetronM refinery margin (CCS):

2015 = 4.5 USD/brl
2016 = 1.3 USD/brl

HRC reported (CCS):

2015 = 7.0 USD/brl
2016 = 4.06 USD/brl

The difference or 'premium' on average of HRC over PetronM is ~ 2.6 USD/barrel.

Now, from Jay's table we know that Retail (marketing) segment on average is giving a gross profit of 105M per qtr. Assume the latest qtr it had improved to 110M/qtr. This means the refinery gross profit contribution on the recent quarter is ~ 120M.

Thus the current CCS margin of PetronM is:
= 120M / (48k brl/day X 90 days)
= RM28/brl
= 6.6 USD/brl


now, if you add the same premium of 2.6USD/brl to derive HRC margin, you will get the following:
= 6.6 + 2.6
= 9.1 USD/brl

Check out the throughput of HRC and the reported Gross margin...it will exactly match this.

Note that, for the last qtr ending Mar17...it is indeed a stock loss as the crude price had dipped during the period. As such the above Margins are conservative CCS margin and not FIFO margins including any stock gains."

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2017-06-25 09:52 | Report Abuse

Big Thanks to all the G5 guru. You really help to enlighten everyone of us in terms of refinery business. investment is like owning a company and know the company biz. Sadly not many really do like what the G5 guru did. Anyway the good things is that the market inefficiency provide opportunity for those who make the effort to understand the biz.

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-25 10:07 | Report Abuse

Rebound I wil,sell..

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-25 10:53 | Report Abuse

Probability sifu,

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-06-25 10:57 | Report Abuse

Selamat hari raya to all muslim forum friends

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-25 11:30 | Report Abuse

To all the wonderful people here especially sifu probably , Jay and sumato88

Orang berbudi kita berbahasa
Orang memberi kita merasa

I will donate 10% of my profit derived from petronm and HY to charity as the reprocical of your kindness and hardworks.
Payment date : 4th day of CNY


SELAMAT HARI RAYA AIDILFITRI

Posted by probability > 2017-06-25 11:57 | Report Abuse

aseng...dont trust my predictions...trust only if you can truly make sense of the workings and the odds for it to be right from the news etc..

if things dont turn out as predicted...i only want the assumptions & workings to be blamed...not me please;)

Posted by pitbull > 2017-06-25 12:19 | Report Abuse

Crude oil Brent oil market open everyday..
Or close 1day only...
Selamat hari raya

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-25 14:35 | Report Abuse

probability sifu,

don't worry , i only buy those stocks that meet my own selection criteria and valuation.

so ,what to blame ?

your calculation is logical and make sense,
why I should i not trust your prediction ?

some wise man said : do not blame others for your failure , blame your ownself for not have the good karma to achieve it


Posted by probability > Jun 25, 2017 11:57 AM | Report Abuse

aseng...dont trust my predictions...trust only if you can truly make sense of the workings and the odds for it to be right from the news etc..

if things dont turn out as predicted...i only want the assumptions & workings to be blamed...not me please;)

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 15:33 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster Probability, even your sharing which is quite technical and not easy to digest all, I still trust the logic of it. Would only blame myself and the market timing, no one else if things turn against. After all, I'm always prepared to lose big !

Don't worry about our decision. Generally, only immature and inexperienced individuals with narrow hearts will exhibit this trait based on my observations.

Posted by little_snake > 2017-06-25 15:41 | Report Abuse

wait it drops further only consider buy in again... dont fall in love with stock... kikiki

Posted by Junhao > 2017-06-25 18:45 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/kianweiaritcles/126148.jsp

”讲股之～原油价格下跌，PetronM和HengYuan完蛋？！”

Good sharing for those understand mandarin..