Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 23:08 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster probability,

Your illustrsation earlier as such :

"Net gross margin = - 24M + 97M + 105M
= 178M (EPS is more than 32 Cents)


say instead if on 30Jun17, the crude drops by another 3USD to 42USD/brl, the stock loss is extra by another 10M.

now the total gross profit becomes:
= 178 - 10
= 168 M (EPS is more than 29 cents)"

From the above, needed a little clarification :

(a) As to how you get the forecast EPS for this 2Q ?

(b) Any idea how much is the actual total gross profit for 1Q ? Is it somewhere in last fin. result ?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-25 23:49 | Report Abuse

Noted that gross profit for Mar17's 183M though appears lower than Dec16's 232M, it was in fact a good 30% growth against the quarterly average of RM141M in 2016 (based on Jay's table).

I am quite convinced too that the 2Q EPS will be a record given the current scenario + the continued effort by management to improve the biz's cost efficiency which already seen from Q4 2016 to Q1 2017.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 00:02 | Report Abuse

Already double added last week...............hahahahaha

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 00:03 | Report Abuse

ok good :)

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 00:05 | Report Abuse

Because its finance costs will be cut quite rapidly towards year end 2017.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 00:10 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster probability, thank you for your invaluable sharing. Now, I really getting closer to see the benefits of low crude oil price for the company.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 00:14 | Report Abuse

he he...glad you are! :)

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 00:23 | Report Abuse

But do you have any idea why refinery margin was "extremely" low in 2016 vs 2015 based on Jay's table ? Other than lower crack spread, what else can it be ?

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 00:33 | Report Abuse

in 2016, the gasoline crack spread was also very low compared to 2015.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 00:38 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster probability, you really could address all concerns that I raised in very informative manner which I'm entirely impressed. You are simply the best technical expert I ever met. Cheers and good night. Will continue as and when there are validations to be made. Thank you.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 00:39 | Report Abuse

yeah..im also learning a lot by teaching..he he...good night

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-26 08:03 | Report Abuse

tankw also help promote oh. ini Kali huat Liao la

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 08:43 | Report Abuse

Hope the other G-5 members will comment too

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2017-06-26 11:48 | Report Abuse

Hi Probability, do you mind to share how you derive the quarterly thruput i.e. 9.5K for HY. Are you using the total revenue or is there any thing we can refer to the quarterly report or annual report.

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 12:19 | Report Abuse

11.3M brl per qtr

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 12:22 | Report Abuse

Jeffbkt, the quarterly thruput i.e. 9.5K for HY is incorrect. Shld it be 9.5M instead ? It shld

Posted by probability > 2017-06-26 12:24 | Report Abuse

yeah..just some typo...it gets confusing with such large qty..he he

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 12:24 | Report Abuse

probablity sifu,

HY activities is less complicated PM , HY is just involved in refinery but PM has both refinery and retail trading ,
so, can we simplify the calculation of the refinery crack margin of HY by just using the gross profit as indicated in the income statement by the volume of 10.1M
by I find that it doesn't tally with the reasonable market value range , can you please kindly enlighten us ?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 12:28 | Report Abuse

I mean it doesn't match with the graph value as provided by Jay
so, I hope you can kindly elaborate on the gross margin breakdown for HY, as it is more straight forward compare with PM, PM is far more complicate to understand since it also involves in trading of a wide range of the final products

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 12:34 | Report Abuse

CCS margins for HRC are higher by around 2USD

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2017-06-26 12:35 | Report Abuse

I just read the Petron Q1 report and found that Petronm reported 8.3M brl sold in Q1 2017. I saw you use 4.7M thruput for Petron in your previous calculation. Just to know why you dont use the sales volume instead?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 12:42 | Report Abuse

Everyone here, pls take note of this formula used to ensure consistent wave length when discussing the analysis by Grandmaster probability :

The gross profit they report is the FIFO margin profit which is the Sum of CCS Margin profit - Stock loss.

"Gross Profit = FIFO margin = CCS margin - stock loss"

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:20 | Report Abuse

HY ( Q1/2017)

Revenue = 2,931,560,000
purchase = 2,535,953,000

gross profit = 395,607,000

volume = 10.1M =10,100,000 barrels

gross profit per barrel = 395,607,000 / 10,100,000
= RM 39.17
= USD 39.17/4.3
= USD 9.11

CCS =USD 9.17 (average of Jan, Feb & Mar 2017- Jay's graph)

from this calculation, can see clearly , the stock loss is negligible got the Q1

Newmaster :

the correct formula is

FIFO margin = CCS margin + stock loss
gross profit = FIFO margin

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:25 | Report Abuse

correct formula

"Gross Profit = FIFO margin = CCS margin + stock loss"

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:29 | Report Abuse

conclusion,

refinery margin depends on CCS margin

CCS margin depend on supply and demand

low crude oil price does not really affect the gross profit very much

is it OK ?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 13:31 | Report Abuse

aseng gor, incorrect lah ! Stock loss must be deducted from CCS margin.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 13:33 | Report Abuse

Oh, I am incorrect ? Let's review......

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:36 | Report Abuse

newmaster ,

how about you try to calculate crack margin of petron based on the data of the Q1 of 2017. not difficult, just subtract the trading revenue from the gross revenue , then you get the gross revenue of refinery and divide it by the volume and convert it to usd, compare with Jay's graph and HY value , the difference should not be too big , if not i will conclude that HY technology is rocket science

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 13:38 | Report Abuse

4 blind men ...in this case a few blind men.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:39 | Report Abuse

logically all correct

mathematically , aseng gor is wrong


Posted by probability > Jun 26, 2017 01:36 PM | Report Abuse

you are right Newmaster.

Posted by Newmaster > Jun 26, 2017 01:31 PM | Report Abuse

aseng gor, incorrect lah ! Stock loss must be deducted from CCS margin.

Posted by VenFx > 2017-06-26 13:41 | Report Abuse

Very good discussion here.
Thx probability & bros here.

I think most Nextrade followers has contributed to the selling.
That's why as an investor, always need to have a Big Picture. Else, probably can sold off the golden gooses without knowing it.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 13:43 | Report Abuse

aseng gor, my maid not around yet. I will continue the tutorial once she is back.............hahahahah. You all carry on first.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 13:44 | Report Abuse

my opinion...its a nest full of pretenders.


next result will be savage to these pretenders.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:45 | Report Abuse

venFX


who no thank me ?
because I hentam you before
you so small heart ah ?

relax....

too serious can't enjoy life longer, you know ?

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-26 13:45 | Report Abuse

Bro stockmanmy, please excuse us for a while, would you ?

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:49 | Report Abuse

stockmanmy,

join my gang lah.....
don't sing opposite song always ...
you teach me factor x to earn big money
I teach you factor y to enjoy life ..

ok ?

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 13:51 | Report Abuse

aseng

I don't normally bother to post negative comments unless I feel strongly about what I post.......Petron and HengYuan are prime examples.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:53 | Report Abuse

probability sifu,

Now i can understand this statement already





"...Dropping crude price not only has no negative effects on CCS margin, but on contrary it increases the spread (where refined products pricing follow Brent movement via time lag), thus increasing the CCS margin."

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:54 | Report Abuse

God love those who are hardworking and willing to unlearn and learn

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 13:58 | Report Abuse

Posted by aseng > Jun 26, 2017 01:57 PM | Report Abuse X

we did not say petronm or HY is good no good
we are just learning how to estimate the gross profit of the interesting companies
we always wish to do a good buy , this skill is important

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 14:01 | Report Abuse

profits got 2 components...the selling price and the cost price.....

cost has two components...stock valuations and cost of manufacturing charged to manufacturing account.

the statement below has no relevance and throws no light on the next quarter profits...wrong and misleading because the statement is true only if selling prices remain high.





"...Dropping crude price not only has no negative effects on CCS margin, but on contrary it increases the spread (where refined products pricing follow Brent movement via time lag), thus increasing the CCS margin."

Posted by VenFx > 2017-06-26 14:04 | Report Abuse

aseng ,
good to see u did a good discussion here :)

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 14:05 | Report Abuse

I still can not understand your factor x
are you willing to teach me and many readers here , I think they are also very interested.

but don't make it too complicate , you know very well , it is a demand supply game we are playing , too complicate and nobody can understand , then nobody wants , then a diamond is no different from a charcoal .

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-26 14:10 | Report Abuse

stockmanny sifu ,

you seen clearly big thing behind but you refuse to see the huge huge in front of your eye .

if gross profit can't improve or maintain, then why wasting time here , this is what you thought us in your factor-x theory, right?




Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 26, 2017 02:01 PM | Report Abuse

profits got 2 components...the selling price and the cost price.....

cost has two components...stock valuations and cost of manufacturing charged to manufacturing account.

the statement below has no relevance and throws no light on the next quarter profits...wrong and misleading because the statement is true only if selling prices remain high.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 14:17 | Report Abuse

aseng

there are times I have strong opinions...this is one of those times.

I see 4 blind men trying to figure out an elephant.

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 14:20 | Report Abuse

yes..the X factor.....

the x factor means understanding that Jaks and Sendai has far less uncertainties than Petron and HengYuan.

the X factor means I continue to buy SCGM despite the lower net margins and continue to buy Vitrox despite the sky high price.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 14:22 | Report Abuse

Maverick investor is nothing more than a conman...he is just an ordinary snake oil salesman....stucked with tonnes & tonnes of snake oil stock mah....!!

THIS X FACTOR IS JUST A MUMBO JUMBO TALK TRYING HARD TO PROMOTE SNAKE OIL STOCKS OF JAKS & SENDAI LOH...!!

IT IS A CON JOB IN THE INVESTMENT CIRCLE MAH...!!

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 14:24 | Report Abuse

maverick investor is worth a few hundred million $...that is the ultimate test of success.

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-26 14:25 | Report Abuse

KYY IS JUST AN ORDINARY INVESTORS...SO SO...NOTHING SO SPECIAL LIKE WARREN BUFFET LOH....!!

KYY MAKE ALOT OF BIG MISTAKES LOH...!!

KYY xinguan make monies meh ??

Buying Xinguan got business sense meh ??

Kyy Buying Xinguan, just bcos his cousin is the auditor, is it not dishonest and stupid meh ??

Posted by stockmanmy > 2017-06-26 14:26 | Report Abuse

maverick investor makes money.

that is the one and only test that is needed.