Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-28 09:49 | Report Abuse

i already say. PE < 3 market gila liao. today market wake up lol

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-06-28 09:50 | Report Abuse

i buy because ROE > 40% power gila. Can't find d.

Posted by Truetalk > 2017-06-28 10:21 | Report Abuse

Wasei, brent oil continue climb

Posted by Truetalk > 2017-06-28 10:26 | Report Abuse

@Newmaster must have deep pocket to lose ka ? But maybe can win big big ne, belanja makan when true

Posted by shidayea > 2017-06-28 10:56 | Report Abuse

Smileee again..

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-28 11:43 | Report Abuse

Truetalk, so sure ? Anyway thanks for that.

Posted by aseng > 2017-06-28 13:05 | Report Abuse

wife too fat , can't dance tango....sleepy......
girl friend very slim, can dance hip-hop..... more exciting

Posted by Kadir Almushayah > 2017-06-28 17:06 | Report Abuse

@aseng .....girlfriend must be supermodel la

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-28 22:25 | Report Abuse

Petron has 602mil inventories. Final Ron 95 closing is 1.89. from a high of 2.30previous quarter. Anybody wanna guess the percentage loss in inventory from last quarter. Say bye bye to your 108m net profit

Posted by stockraider > 2017-06-28 22:48 | Report Abuse

Petron inventory holding is only 14 days....if price move down 2 sen...the exposure on inventory is about 2wks only mah...!!

Anyhow...no impairment on inventory...bcos the profit margin now is much more than 2 sen per litre...just that going fwd make less when refined product sold until complete stock turn loh...!!

The impact is less than Rm 10m ...in term of one time margin loh...!!

Posted by suregain > 2017-06-28 22:54 | Report Abuse

No power comoared,to hy

Posted by Mohd Fahmi Bin Jaes > 2017-06-28 22:55 | Report Abuse

Oil down

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-28 23:22 | Report Abuse

Down will be good for now, can slowly absorb

Posted by stockmanny > 2017-06-28 23:39 | Report Abuse

Why must you talk bad about the company, nah kena hantam ?

Advise you to look at others if you dun like it here, would you

Posted by skyea > Jun 28, 2017 10:25 PM | Report Abuse

Petron has 602mil inventories. Final Ron 95 closing is 1.89. from a high of 2.30previous quarter. Anybody wanna guess the percentage loss in inventory from last quarter. Say bye bye to your 108m net profit

Posted by cheoky > 2017-06-28 23:47 | Report Abuse

600mil stock doesnt stuck there and go in one short in last week of june. still half year to go. even based on your short sighted logic, if july oil go up to usd52, there that bye bye 108m profit come back? so still want chicken little here ar? all masters are here le.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-29 01:52 | Report Abuse

good, then hold it ok. even better if all of u add more. remember to hold.

and of course not the retail segment lah, is the refinery segment taking the hit lah duh.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-29 01:56 | Report Abuse

@stockraider, u know how accounting works ah? what 2 weeks inventory. get facts right. go see annual report, and even then that is hitting gross margin. totally different from inventory loss adjustment which is from last balance sheet that is 31 March, not your 2 weeks.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-29 02:41 | Report Abuse

@cheoky who said anything about 600m getting stuck till the end of the quarter. the magnitude of products stored is consistent from month to month, like that also need to explain ah? and what half year to go? its adjusted quarter to quarter, otherwise whats the point of balance sheet "AS OF 30 JUNE" for? that change will hit P&L lah...obviously?

And then nevermind u said JULY oil will go to 52, nonsensical as it was, if your logic of 108 profit coming back is so "masterful", then petron would not drop from rm 7 to 3.50 during ron 95 dropped from 2.30 to 1.70 in 2016. now that ron 95 dropped from 2.30 to 1.89 still want to repeat the same mistake. you think people in 2016 didnt think and argue the same things ah? so go ahead and make that lame argument again just like all of them last year. apparently being masterful to you is just that.

Posted by skyea > 2017-06-29 03:17 | Report Abuse

knowing how to crunch numbers is good and the determination shown is impressive. but thinking that is enough to navigate the share market and share prices and making extraordinary portfolio returns is ridiculous. all i see u guys do is only talking about 1 single piece of the puzzle (even that u all dont know the correct multiplier to get gasoline crack, and u are clueless about their degree of hedging, and so u count and count while the portfolio self destructs). with the dow jones in bubblish territory and at risk of a flash crash, you come in with your twinkle shoes and talk about LONG TERM?! last i remember long term is when market is at a trough. not when KLCI is at 1800 and DJIA 21500. misused strategies.

whats more doing this right in front of an impending, OPEC nov meeting, and General election when BN could lose very badly and send the ringgit spiralling. real smart u guys! even if BN dont lose, they'd stick the ron 95 so low and so long just to win votes, ur gross margins and your portfolio is going to cry.

hello masters, f u even know the basics, there is value to be discounted. not just your FCF and thats it. look outside your calculator box for godsakes.

Posted by cheap1 > 2017-06-29 05:41 | Report Abuse

Petrol so cheap now must pump full tank today until next Wed.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-29 07:39 | Report Abuse

If petrol price drop from high to low price, petrol inventory loss is expected from refinery petrol storage to retail sector petrol storage. The higher the petrol drop per weekly basis the higher the loss incur in petrol inventory. Vice versa . Retail profit will be impacted too.

Posted by OOMMGG > 2017-06-29 07:44 | Report Abuse

The degree of impact depend on the degree of petrol price drop per weekly basis. The worst case will be it drop all the way from high to low price persistently from week to week all the way to form monthly drop.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-29 08:54 | Report Abuse

Yes, stock loss is unavoidable when oil drop. But has the oil price fallen below 42usd so far ? In fact it stays around 45usd on average the last 3 weeks, right ?

Still the earnings can be decent if not better based on the "rough" derivations by Grandmaster probability's illustrsation earlier using 42USD/brl :

"Net gross margin = - 24M + 97M + 105M
= 178M (EPS is more than 32 Cents)


say instead if on 30Jun17, the crude drops by another 3USD to 42USD/brl, the stock loss is extra by another 10M.

now the total gross profit becomes:
= 178 - 10
= 168 M (EPS is more than 29 cents)"

Posted by talkyourkok > 2017-06-29 09:00 | Report Abuse

should come up to 7.50 by tomorrow.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-29 09:11 | Report Abuse

What I noted is that Q2's CCS of 97M (estimate) is > the whole of 2016 ? This part could Grandmaster probability clarify.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-29 09:18 | Report Abuse

Grandmaster probability, noted and thanks again.

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-29 09:34 | Report Abuse

Ya USD5.3/brl used vs 4.5 USD

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-06-29 10:02 | Report Abuse

Brent oil rebounded to 47.5

Posted by Truetalk > 2017-06-29 10:45 | Report Abuse

Oledi collected nearly 50K, hope for the best :)

Posted by cheoky > 2017-06-29 11:04 | Report Abuse

@skyea my fault. my maths are poor. you are smart and right. dont touch petronm. follow your noble advise, i will be saved.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-29 15:08 | Report Abuse

i think we talk so much also no use. just wait next result come and proof it

Posted by kenz88 > 2017-06-29 15:54 | Report Abuse

if drop rm7, i will buyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-06-29 15:57 | Report Abuse

add little at 7.23 today. slowly buy and wait

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-29 16:01 | Report Abuse

Hopefully not goodbye.....haha

Posted by Truetalk > 2017-06-29 17:07 | Report Abuse

Call it buy on weakness, sell on strength leh.

Continue to top up, can't imagine if later not able to get. Must have patience if want catch big fish

Posted by vvv1 > 2017-06-29 17:34 | Report Abuse

catch big lot at 7.2! haha, go go!

Posted by George888 > 2017-06-29 20:33 | Report Abuse

Have FAITH in Petron :)

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-06-29 23:54 | Report Abuse

Probability, currently Brent oil price around USD48. Is it mean stock loan can be much reduced from our earlier calculation? What is the reference oil price of stock loss/gain calculation?

Posted by ocpd > 2017-06-30 10:15 | Report Abuse

Has anyone received diividend today?

Posted by sheldon > 2017-06-30 14:57 | Report Abuse

Yup I'm counting my money

Posted by superstrong > 2017-06-30 16:24 | Report Abuse

buy below 7 still hv chance no hurry

Posted by LaLaLa > 2017-06-30 17:12 | Report Abuse

i still not sighted my div payout in my acc ler

Posted by Newmaster > 2017-06-30 17:16 | Report Abuse

Did you ever have the share or not ??

Posted by little_snake > 2017-06-30 17:23 | Report Abuse

everyone is too positive... i m gonna wait... kikiki

Posted by invest turtle > 2017-06-30 19:11 | Report Abuse

wowo.... so happy to get divi today.

Posted by zoizai > 2017-06-30 19:32 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/126499.jsp

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2017-06-30 20:34 | Report Abuse

PETRONM – 原油价格走势的影响

众所周知，PETRONM主要从事石油产品的生产和销售，涉及石油中下游领域。其波德申炼油厂的每天产能为88,000桶，生产各种石油产品，包括汽油、柴油、润滑油、液化石油气 (LPG) 、工业和商业燃料等。其强大的下游业务涵盖整个大马超过570个油站。

上个月在FY17Q1标青业绩出炉后，PETRONM似乎吃了泻药，其股价不升反跌，从高点8.90暴跌至目前的7.25，相等于约19%的跌幅。背后下跌的原因相信是与原油价格近期暴跌有非常大的关系。BRENT原油从5月的每桶USD54暴跌至早前的USD45，较今年4月高位下跌超过20%，符合熊市定义。

市场就是如此，对于原油价格的走势非常敏感，可轻易影响油股。回归基本面，原油价格在2014年从每桶USD100以上暴跌至每桶USD50以下，但是PETRONM的盈利却意外转亏为盈，而且是越做越好。不得不说，市场上非常多的散户以及投资者对于PETRONM的业务缺乏深入了解，一致认为原油价格的下跌对于集团来说是个利空因素。

PETRONM的业务涉及中下游原油领域 ，也就是向上游领域的采油业者购买原油，送往位于波德申的炼油厂进行提炼。之后，再把完成提炼的各种汽油产品运输到添油站，或者转售给大型商业企业。

原油价格暴跌，受影响幅度最大的莫过于上游领域业者，如HIBISCUS、REACH和SAPURA。无可否认，原油价格的波动对于PETRONM有一定的打击，但却不是影响业绩的最关键因素。其FY15和FY16的表现就是最好的证明。 在此，先讲解关于PETRONM业务的运作。

举个例子，PETRONM向上游业者购买原油，而一开始每桶原油售价为USD50。集团之后把原油送往炼油厂进行提炼。原油价格与提炼后的汽油产品价格之间的价差就是PETRONM的炼油赚幅 (Refining Margin/Crack Spread)。由于汽油产品的价格是根据市场的供求来决定，因此炼油赚幅也会随之改变。假设炼油赚幅为每桶USD6，那么PETRONM将提炼后的汽油产品以每桶USD56的价格卖给油站，油站再转售给消费者。

根据APM定价机制，大马汽油价格取决于汽油提炼产品的平均价格，主要依据新加坡汽油平均交易价【MOPS】，而不是根据原油价格来计算汽油价格。换句话说，大马人要在提炼后的油价下滑后才会受惠。由于每公升汽油的毛利已经定在5仙，无论原油价格或者提炼后的油价走势如何，经营油站的PETRONM依然可享有稳定的收入。当然，这仍未包括经营油站的开销。一桶汽油大约159公升，PETRONM可从每桶油赚取约RM8或者USD1.85的毛利。

当原油价格下跌至每桶USD49时，PETRONM依然可从每桶汽油赚取USD1.85的毛利，外加炼油赚幅与成本的差别。在每桶汽油毛利固定下，炼油赚幅的走势是集团业绩表现的最主要因素。这可解释为何PETRONM在原油价格低迷之际，其盈利却相反走高。

然而，PETRONM却必须承担每桶USD1的一次性库存亏损 (Inventory Loss)，主要因为早前够买的那批库存成本为每桶USD50。换句话说，集团必须以较低价格出售成本较高的库存。假设PETRONM的每桶炼油成本为USD3，那么其毛赚幅就是炼油赚幅USD6减去成本USD3，等于每桶USD3。再加上每桶销售汽油的毛利为USD1.85以及一次性库存亏损USD1，集团依然还赚取每桶USD3.85的毛利。

必须注意，由于原油价格每天都在上下波动，基本上PETRONM每一天都会有库存亏损或者库存收益。集团平均累积3至4个星期的库存，而库存都是以“先进先出“的方式出售。因此，原油价格的波动对于PETRONM的影响幅度有限。

PETRONM的本地市占率从去年初的17.4%提升至目前的19%。近两个季度的营业额成长就是最好的证明。由于其油站业务发展良好，未来预计可进一步从BP、SHELL和PETRONAS手上抢夺更多市场份额。

虽然原油价格在6月瞬间走软，但是亚洲区域的炼油赚幅却继续走高 。以下是新加坡MOGAS95期货的走势。按这来看，PETRONM的FY17Q2表现有望保持强劲。本专页预测其下个季度的盈利介于RM80-90m，相等于每股30-35仙盈利。

目前，PETRONM的PE只有6倍，股东回酬 (ROE) 超过20%，而且每年皆可创造RM300m左右的净现金。其银行贷款已从FY14的RM1b左右下滑至目前的RM300m，未来2年有望晋升为净现金企业。再加上其油站越做越好，PETRONM几乎可说是无可挑剔。现阶段的Knee-Jerk Reaction暴跌已为大家制造一个趁低吸纳的良机，千万别错过！

对于股票分析报告有兴趣的股友，可私下PM本专页，以了解详情！

#PETRONM
纯属分享！

Posted by Samtuckfatt > 2017-06-30 20:35 | Report Abuse

From RH research

Posted by musangfoxking > 2017-06-30 20:36 | Report Abuse

so can buy?

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-06-30 20:43 | Report Abuse

This stock is going to be very volatile. Investors have very short memory. In february 2016, petron announced a poor quarterly result and the stock price crashed from RM 7 to RM 3.5 in a span of months. What i see here is many experts trying to be experts in predicting the next quarterly result in an expert way. What has happened will happen again. If petron announce a RM 10 million profit next quarter, this stock is going to crash 40%. If petron can announce a consistent RM 100 million every quarter, congratulations, we have got a winner.