"The company added that sales would have been much higher if not for scheduled maintenance turnarounds in both its 180,000 barrel-per-day Bataan refinery and its 88,000 barrel-per-day Port Dickson refinery in Malaysia." -- by petron philippines for year 2017
petron malaysia last turnaround shutdown in 2015Q4, which mean this year will not have turnaroud shutdown? Any idea?
Global market sentiment isnt good lately, it works in tandem with US issue sparks trade war fear regarding fresh tariff on imports by trump. But i trust in value, no matter how, companies with good fundamental will sustain in the long run.
Posted by probability > Mar 15, 2018 10:49 PM | Report Abuse
There are (three) explosive factors which will easily skew the whole valuation above of David...much much higher than 19.5.....
(1) The throughput will rise by 20% after the upgrade...this results with pure surplus cash to the bottom line. No additional administrative costs...no extra finance costs.... this pure BONUS cash flow.
(2) Hengyuan management had mentioned they are planning to venture into trading of Petrochemical products...just another 10k bpd equivalent with a thin margin will have mind boggling effects on its bottom line...
(3) The IMO 2020 effects will start to become more and more apparent beginning of 2019....and brew into a 'perfect storm'..it will show its full force as it hits 2020. It will be pure blessing to Hengyuan which mainly produces Diesel.... This effects will at least last a few years... Its like a hundred Hurricane Harvey coming one after another continuously...
Item no.3 should never be underestimated..especially when data shows that net regional refining capacity additions is lower than the demand rise...
IMO 2020 itself would have killed a major chunk of the available refineries in the world..those Simple refineries that produces mainly Fuel Oil...
This will result with exponential rise in refining margins of Hengyuan...
Doing DCF perhaps ensures you dont lose monney in market...coz any tom dick and harry can do that...but...if you want to talk about winning....you need know what you can see others cant see....what is you edge?
Now, if you can understand this...that is where you edge is.
assumed yield of 3.5% , higher than fixed deposit. Petronm price should be around RM6.5 ... thats how u calculate whether it is worth to keep based on dividend alone.
Somehow still hv confidence in this stock for long term. Top up a bit at 9.31. Was waiting it to go to RM 9 so I can add more while averaging from 9.62.
mamatede Tomorrow gonna jump, world oil price boom.
If you read the last quarterly Petron financials, it stated that the gross margins i.e. crack spread fell because of faster rise in crude relative to product prices. Hence it's not good for Petron.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
alanthamkw
37 posts
Posted by alanthamkw > 2018-03-15 09:27 | Report Abuse
cash rich now. hope to collect anytime.......wakaka