Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 21:44 | Report Abuse

OTB, are you serious ah.

You don't know why the price move? Isnt it obvious ah?

Euphoria, begets Euphoria in a constant positive feedback.

As stock price go up, all the positive news is over-represented in the news, people's analysis and people's minds. Causing it to go up more and more until it stops going up.


Fear begets fear in a constant negative feedback.

As stock price go down, all the negative news and downsides is now over-represented in the news, people's analysis and people's minds. Causing it to go down more and more until it stops going down.


This was the fundamental of your subscription business no? The first few cause price go up to start the positive feedback. Others see price go up and your positive research, feel euphoric, buy more, it keeps going up and up and up. Then it stop.

The as it starts to drop, they start listening to naysayers, price drop more, they now starting to panic, the all the bad news and downside all come up. Until all they can see is downside, as price drops, more and more sells.


Your Masteel and Hengyuan picks, had clear downsides what. Hengyuan the refinery is not as efficient historically as most thinks. Operating earnings evened out over the last 10 years is only RM150m per annum. Net profit evened out over the last 10 year is worst, only RM60m.

Of course, if they really forced to sell to shell at cheap price, might be different lah.

Masteel like i said, debt is very heavy, high steel prices is only temporary.

Both companies looked cheap-ish using record all time high earnings that had alot of outstanding and non recurring factors.

When share price going up, everyone greedy, no one want to see downside mah.

When share price going down, everyone scared, no one want to see upside.

Like that loh.

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Posted by Halite > Apr 4, 2018 09:22 PM | Report Abuse

there is no reason Petronm can not be traded at more than 18 in the long run
so if you buy now, it is safe , not easy to lose if you can wait.

Ans :
I think it is important to check the projected EPS for 2018 before we can conclude the projected price at 18.00.

I believe Mr Market is always very accurate.

I wish the price of Hengyuan and Petronm can go up north together.

Cannot figure out the reason why the price keep dropping everyday until everyone is so worried to cut loss.

The main reason I believe the EPS will be bad for all refinery stocks worldwide.
The price drop is not restricted to Malaysia. It happens worldwide.

We do not know the real reason and keep hoping to look for sky high price.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 21:57 | Report Abuse

OTB sifu,

thank you very much for your kindness to share with us about your view

i am comparing petronm with petdag ,

so i believe 18 is possible in the long run after the expansion plan

i agree with you that with the current market sentiment it is better to give a bigger discount to play safe.

mind to share with us what is your fv for petronm?

thank you

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 22:01 | Report Abuse

Lansi wil kill u faster. Kikikikk

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-04-04 22:02 | Report Abuse

Posted by Halite > Apr 4, 2018 09:57 PM | Report Abuse

mind to share with us what is your fv for petronm?

Ans :
13.50.
It is based on my FA report.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 22:04 | Report Abuse

Rm3.50 should b ok

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:05 | Report Abuse

thanks, otb sifu.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-04 22:07 | Report Abuse

Actually... Given petronm dividend, it is more attractive than hrc at present moment.... But both currently drive with same gear...

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:07 | Report Abuse

trulyinvest,

why 3.50 ?

mind to share with us your reasons

trulyinvest: Rm3.50 should b ok
04/04/2018 22:04

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-04-04 22:10 | Report Abuse

Bad chart

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:22 | Report Abuse

current price = 7.01
dividend = 0.25
Average TP = 15 ( OTB & JON)

so if you buy at 7.50 tomorrow morning

upside potential = 100%

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:27 | Report Abuse

conclusion :

petronm is a must buy at current price with an upside potential of 100% supported by both OTB sifu and JON CHOIVO sifu calculation.

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 22:28 | Report Abuse

when can 100%?

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:30 | Report Abuse

if you believe , then you do not need my answer

if you do not believe, then no point i answer

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 22:31 | Report Abuse

for this year,guarantee by Apollo research cannot up 100%

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 22:33 | Report Abuse

80% also cannot by this year,50% also very slim chance.30% u be very lucky.10-20% more reasonable.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-04-04 22:35 | Report Abuse

So buy around Dec... Haha

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 22:42 | Report Abuse

nope not too high 6-8.50 is my reasonable target price for this year

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-04-04 22:47 | Report Abuse

Lol, cannot count like that. Very scary haha

My valuation for Petronm not that deep, just cursory look. But i know now is too cleap. But near 15 i might chao d.

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 22:55 | Report Abuse

you must believe otb sifu calculation

market has proven him right many times

why I like petronm so much ?

i trust the management of petronm

I bet on the believe that the 14B expansion plan is a good news, when announced later buyers will rush in to push the price higher than 18

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 23:01 | Report Abuse

Can save a lot of money buy at 3.50. Y not

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:10 | Report Abuse

all talking nonsense.....6.00-8.50 is my TP for this year.....no 3.50 and no 12.00

Posted by paperplane > 2018-04-04 23:10 | Report Abuse

How bout buy at 0.0001,this even better advise right

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 23:11 | Report Abuse

Maduk pn 17 lagi baik

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:13 | Report Abuse

yours TP is orang gila one no realistic at all.....u in dreamland ar?

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-04-04 23:15 | Report Abuse

Mayb rm18 in hellnote. Kikiki

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:17 | Report Abuse

10.00 also cannot lah I give u till dec 31 2018

Posted by OPMS > 2018-04-04 23:18 | Report Abuse

hahahaha if 3.50 i ikan bilis oso can buy banyak2 liao..

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:19 | Report Abuse

last time? when is your last time? I already given u my time dec 31 2018 petron cannot reach 10.00

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:22 | Report Abuse

TP 13.....I can laugh until my teeth fall down,u think bursa is money game ar?

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-04 23:24 | Report Abuse

halite, u bail out oredi? thought u strong supporter. U been averaging down from above 10 all the way down, my guess is by now, it should have broken your will oredi.

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-04 23:25 | Report Abuse

i agree with apollo, 10 i consider very good oredi but given the current market condition, i think lower than 10

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:25 | Report Abuse

7.50? today 7.00 also got

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:26 | Report Abuse

10? no lah I see 6.00-8.50 only

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:27 | Report Abuse

read carefully wat I say.....I say cannot reach 10 u idiot

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 23:29 | Report Abuse

hollandking,

my TP is 18 , still not chnged

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:29 | Report Abuse

I say cannot even touch 10.....only 6.00-8.50. if 6.00 u can tell me to buy some if I forgot about this stock

Posted by moneyJohn > 2018-04-04 23:29 | Report Abuse

Don't overtslked or undertalked the mkt.

I think Petronm will leap and leap only when mkt sentiments improve.

How fast or how long ? That's something only god knows. No one including Mgt will be able to point out to you certainly.

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:30 | Report Abuse

u better say your TP 100......wat a sorchai.....haha

Posted by moneyJohn > 2018-04-04 23:32 | Report Abuse

TP for downtrend may be RM6.50.

And TP for uptrend may exceed RM15

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:33 | Report Abuse

god also know about stocks? wow I tot god knows 4d only cos many pray god to strike 4d even use the sticks to pick numbers.never heard anyone asking god about stocks,maybe can ask pastor calvin.....hehe

Posted by Halite > 2018-04-04 23:33 | Report Abuse

why 18,

the reason is simple

I love this company so much that i prepare to hold this company for life
unless one day , suddenly the management tell us they are not going to sell oil, they are going to sell nasi lemak.

hope you have the wisdom to understand what i said

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-04 23:34 | Report Abuse

i been thinking about something, cold storage counter with good fundamental , cold storage meaning not much activities or maybe lower than average.
Ppl say no pump n dump if got good fundamental, but i think this is a wrong way of thinking.
Let's use an example, a company A doing quite well, but not much daily volume, so ppl say is undervalued BUT still not much trading activities.
So suddenly someone or some parties decide to push it up, pumping, then it will move up. So now they say is moving with fundamental BUT bear in mind, it was a cold storage counter in the first place and without much volume and then suddenly moving. Although inline with fundamental, BUT its volume had all along been low. The pumping itself doesnt mean that is inline with the fundamental, the fundamental itself provide a smoke screen. BUT if you look at the strong counters, they don't suddenly spike a lot and then go back all the way down, they stay there and continue slowly going up. BUT in both petron and especially HY, u see the chart, go up very fast then go back down. So what does it actually tell us?

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:34 | Report Abuse

NO 10,NO 15,No 18 for this stock this year......the sorchais in hengyuan also say TP 30 and 42 where is the sorchai now?

Posted by hollandking > 2018-04-04 23:36 | Report Abuse

the charts show that very likely there were manipulations

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:37 | Report Abuse

my uncle fren keep his rubber stocks since bursa open until 50 years later all become PN 17 like jeram kuantan became tanco. from over RM 150 to become 10cts

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:38 | Report Abuse

who says 3.50? u sorchai

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:40 | Report Abuse

in u didn't read the annual report ar? it shows the average price for 2016 is only 4.80

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:44 | Report Abuse

6.00 I wanna buy and not 3.50.cannot drop to 3.50 also cannot up beyond 10.00

Posted by apolloang > 2018-04-04 23:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Hohup > 2018-04-05 02:24 | Report Abuse

Green