Posted by suregain > 2017-03-21 23:29 | Report Abuse

Crude oil drops below 48.. Volatility resurface.. Petronm might encounter another round of selling

Posted by Cindy Ling > 2017-03-22 08:24 | Report Abuse

Drop more, then can collect mother share... hehe... please drop more!!

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-22 08:30 | Report Abuse

true. like it or not, people just look at crude oil price nowadays.

however if you look at API and EIA data for past few weeks, most of the time crude inventories build up more than expected while gasoline and distillate inventories was drawn down more than expected.

personally, my gut feel is that oil traders are looking at the wrong data. US refineries have higher maintenance outages this year and that possibly explains why gasoline and distillate inventories are aggressively drawn down while crude inventories build up as less refineries utilise it. As US is about to enter the summer season soon, typically refineries will ramp up again to cater for higher demand and then we might see crude inventories draw down more than expected. Shale oil rigs have built up but I don't think that's the main reasons of the high level crude inventories, at least not now

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-22 08:30 | Report Abuse

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/refinery/outage/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-refinery-maintenance-idUSKBN15G55W

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-22 08:39 | Report Abuse

doesn't concern malaysia in particular but will support worldwide gasoline prices
http://www.nacsonline.com/YourBusiness/FuelsReports/2015/Prices/Pages/Why-Prices-Historically-Go-Up-in-the-Spring.aspx

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-22 09:16 | Report Abuse

One time stock gains or stock losses due to fluctuations of oil prices is part and parcel of refinery business. If u put in one whole year period it will eventually even out.

Refinery margin is the meat that u are looking after, so far Jan/Feb 2017 the refinery margin is good, where as March 2017 might affect a bit, still overall the 1st Qtr 2017 is expected to be good.

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-22 09:30 | Report Abuse

true. but if current trend continues, where processed products price didn't drop much while crude price slump, refining margins are turning out fatter than expected. it seems like traders for each commodity is focusing on its own data and missing out on the big picture. that's good news for refiners, especially for coming months after one off stock gains/losses are flushed out

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-22 09:33 | Report Abuse

Totally agree with Jay !!

Cheers

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-22 13:11 | Report Abuse

good news, minister has clarified that there won't be a price war once ceiling price is introduced and any operator who want to do discounts promotion has to get ministry's approval first. the details of new weekly fuel price mechanism will be announced tomorrow.

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-22 16:06 | Report Abuse

who is stupid hell keeping selling 100 shares at 5.75??

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 16:32 | Report Abuse

Weekly pricing mechanism is infact very protective for Petron when the crude price begins to rise (meaning no longer down trending).

Imagine crude pricing is rising but the pricing gets adjusted only after a month - except for the minor stock gains, the margin would have actually thinned out right?

So, the crude price dip would have actually increased the gross margin of Petron for this month except for the minor stock loss.


Posted by Jay > Mar 22, 2017 01:11 PM | Report Abuse

good news, minister has clarified that there won't be a price war once ceiling price is introduced and any operator who want to do discounts promotion has to get ministry's approval first. the details of new weekly fuel price mechanism will be announced tomorrow.

Posted by Cindy Ling > 2017-03-22 17:05 | Report Abuse

Please go down more...I want buy!!

Posted by sheldon > 2017-03-22 17:49 | Report Abuse

Efficient Market Hypothesis is being put to serious test. Is PetronM accurately priced or is it under-priced and is flying under the radar of the big funds?

Maybe it is indeed properly priced and the major players are avoiding it due to the absence of liquidity.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-22 18:35 | Report Abuse

In long term, this is good for Operator.

http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1626250

Posted by meistsk3134 > 2017-03-22 18:39 | Report Abuse

wait malaysia election or US latest oil gas news then buy

Posted by sheldon > 2017-03-22 18:49 | Report Abuse

逍遥子 - what's the gist of the report?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-22 20:00 | Report Abuse

Govt will set weekly ceiling retail price for Petrol & Diesel effective from 29/3 & and any price reductions or promotions by operator, an application to relevant department will be needed.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 23:02 | Report Abuse

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/03/22/weekly-fuel-prices-to-take-effect-every-thursday/

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 23:03 | Report Abuse

if we are so smart at predicting fuel price - may be can buy this Thursday (keep in a tongkang) and then sell next Thursday...apa macam?

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 23:11 | Report Abuse

Minister Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin made the announcement on RTM's TV1 5pm news on Wednesday, and said that the new mechanism would allow consumers to enjoy a more stable retail price for fuel compared to the monthly pricing currently in use.


Posted by probability > Mar 4, 2017 08:45 PM | Report Abuse X

you know whats going to happen...the ceiling price will have an added BUFFER just like the 'Alpha of 5 & 4 cents' for Petrol & Diesel respectively...it will cause them to price even higher than usual based on MOPS values.

And none of the gas station retailers going to move a single cent lower than the ceiling.

The reason Gov came out with this...is coz they are fed up with the changing Crude price and RM-USD exchange rates...causing them to significantly alter the price of Refined products on certain months causing either the Oil Company or the Consumer to gain / lose significantly.

By having a buffer and a more frequent adjustment flexibility...the Oil Company's interest and government's reputation, and feelings of consumers are taken care.

Posted by probability > 2017-03-22 23:13 | Report Abuse

I am 100% certain this will be benefiting Petron - cause it will force them (government) to provide a higher Alpha-Buffer so that the price volatility is contained.

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-23 08:27 | Report Abuse

I'm not so sure about the Alpha buffer. I still see it as a ploy to divert attention and smoothen the price curve by the government. but now with the hassel of getting ministry approval, I don't think petrol stations will break ranks and do frequent promotions. weekly adjustment is also better for them

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-23 08:33 | Report Abuse

finally they realise that refiners will have to ramp up production as gasoline stockpile fell, which will provide higher demand for crude oil
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-more-than-1-as-traders-fret-about-us-crude-stockpiles-2017-03-22

Posted by zoizai > 2017-03-23 18:10 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/petdag-benefit-weekly-fuel-pricing?type=Corporate

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-23 22:37 | Report Abuse

Crude oil keep falling.. What d hell is tis usa producers? Keep increase production

Posted by ysh8793ysh > 2017-03-24 00:50 | Report Abuse

bull and bear keep fighting,,,

Posted by limkokthye > 2017-03-24 08:32 | Report Abuse

if u want petronm stock up, everyday go petronm fill up petrol

Posted by ysh8793ysh > 2017-03-24 20:38 | Report Abuse

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-breaks-4-day-losing-streak-after-saudis-slash-exports-to-us-2017-03-24

Posted by probability > 2017-03-25 21:43 | Report Abuse

http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/03/24/petrol-station-retailers-weekly-fuel-price-updates-a-good-move/

https://paultan.org/2017/03/24/minimal-weekly-fuel-price-changes-acceptable-pdam/

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2017-03-27 18:36 | Report Abuse

http://www.euronews.com/2017/03/27/asia-refiners-snap-up-cheap-light-oil-to-reap-higher-fuel-profits

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-27 21:48 | Report Abuse

Crude oil free fall.. Another round of selling tomorow

Posted by sg999 > 2017-03-27 22:02 | Report Abuse

Oil falls back toward November lows amid glut concerns

Posted by Jay > 2017-03-28 10:27 | Report Abuse

personally I see more upside on oil price now rather than downside

1. crude oil inventory data could start to surprise positively, maybe as early as tomorrow's API data as US refineries ramp up production to prepare for coming summer

2. demand is increasing again. China Caixin PMI is above 50 again since late last year, meaning China's manufacturing recession may be coming to an end

3. opec leaning towards extending the supply cut agreement. current lower oil price environment makes it even more important to extend as the news alone would support the price. besides, the most important country, saudi is planning for saudi aramco ipo and it's crucial to reap as high valuation as possible. they even cut the tax rate just for this ipo so they probably will try to support the oil price as far as possible

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-28 11:32 | Report Abuse

Goreng!!!

Posted by zhangliang > 2017-03-28 11:34 | Report Abuse

lets go its back!

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-03-28 11:35 | Report Abuse

take position for CB, hope second round can goreng to 0.7

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-28 11:35 | Report Abuse

wow.... goooodddddd

Posted by zhangliang > 2017-03-28 11:40 | Report Abuse

broke RM6

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-03-28 11:40 | Report Abuse

lai liao lai liao

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-03-28 11:58 | Report Abuse

wow, rebounded. Result good is it

Posted by Cindy Ling > 2017-03-28 11:59 | Report Abuse

worry later go to red.. >.<

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-03-28 12:22 | Report Abuse

@paperlane, tp for cb at least 0.6?

Posted by suregain > 2017-03-28 12:23 | Report Abuse

shut up your bad mouth

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-03-28 12:47 | Report Abuse

haha. I expect 0.70. but a bit high lah. Jul2017 expire, discount a bit, minimum 0.50 for CB lah

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-03-28 12:49 | Report Abuse

EPS =0.20 consistently.
Imagine you yourself own petrol station+refinery. it is golden eggs.

0.20x4=0.80 P/E min 10 for me loh for golden egg.
It should be RM8 now

CB=8-4.5/6=0.58333333 loh
even not 0.58, minimum to see 0.50 loh! reasonable right??????????

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-03-28 12:49 | Report Abuse

acutally i think it will still go lower , best time to collect is like 2 weeks before the results released hehe

Posted by thenewbee > 2017-03-28 12:50 | Report Abuse

if can go as high as 7.50 before maturity date, finger cross haha

Posted by Alex Lim Jun Xiong > 2017-03-28 15:11 | Report Abuse

Wah... so bullish~

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-03-28 15:15 | Report Abuse

last round after the QR, CB run like crazy, i bought 0.26, sold 0.7, but this round i think it will not be that crazy, it will follow mother movement at a more reasonable speed, for me, 0.5-0.6 is possible, just take my position again this morning at 0.27

Posted by tkp2 > 2017-03-28 15:17 | Report Abuse

this rebound is for real lor, no turning back, see you at 7.5 (CB 0.5)