The syndicate that talk this stock up, so that so many ignorant people lose so much money and the syndicate make so much money. Bless them so they don't suffer bad karma.
When panic sets in, fundamentals go down the drain. If you manage to sell HLI at 4.51, you can still make some profit as I believe that Narra will stay above 4 in the mid term which give you a price of 8.83. 4.51 for a counter with eps of 0.54 is quite cheap but noone cares when market is so bad.
closing price last night = 7.51. So Ex price should be = 7.51 - 1.08 = 6.43, right?. Normally the counter should start trading at 6.43, and may be gradually sell down if investors has no confidence, yes? But the counter started trading at 6.43 - 30% = 4.51 !! at 9am. May be Big syndicate already planned to shock the market from the very start. Does not seem logical that the whole market think to limit down from the start. Do you think big syndicate is playing? I am a novice losing money in this , sad. But this is life. I shall learn from this, make friends with syndicate, ha ha.
Some statistics which can hopefully lift the doom and gloom. Going by previous years record, HLI will probably be announcing the interim dividend (10-11 cents for the past few years) for FY2015 between mid to late November with ex and payment date in December. Their eps for FY2014 was 0.54 and dividend was 0.25 which give a decent dividend yield of 5.54% and a PER of 8.35x based on the current price of 4.51. Their NTA is above RM4. There will be having their agm this thursday. But like I said, when market panics people becomes irrational. So hope this calm some jitters.
Novice, this is to be expected. The ex-price is merely a reference price and most would have factored in the true value of Narra. You must understand that the recent buyers bought their shares at below RM8. Now by selling HLI at 4.51 and above, their remaining cost becomes around 3. They will be hoping to sell their Narra at 4 which will equals to 4.32 (1.08 x 4) giving them a profit of more than 10%. Of course they are hoping that Narra's price is sustainable.
Fundamental of HLIND no change. Now 4.51 + (1.08 x 3.87) = 8.68. Perhaps 5pm will be 4.00 + (1.08 x 3.30) = 7.56 (still earn 0.05 cents compare yesterday) :-)
There will be additional 350 millions Narra shares in the market by this Friday, difficult to guess its market price then. May be Narra shares was push high high to temp ignorant novice to buy HLI? A lot to learn how to stay away from big sharks, and focus only on solid fundamentals.
I agree too. Normally sharks stay away from HL companies as they are tightly controlled and the prices are too high. In most days the volume transacted is quite limited. Yes, focus on the solid fundamentals and I believe that you can't go wrong with Quek's counters. Currently there's too much turbulence in the market that it's difficult to see the true value. You can gauge Narra's value by it's projected eps of 0.23 and the current expansion is expected to double it's capacity. It's true value will emerge. I don't think you are losing yet unless you buy at the top at 8.81.
Actually I am really curious , and want to know why no bidding at all...so strange... something is really not right here....and the only active one is the CA... but price keep pushing down ....weird....
Obviously someone press down price, then someone panic selling. Then no more volume. Why? Too many strongholders. No 9ne want to let go. I bet it will go back 6 near term. Then 7
Biasa la.. U get free narra so it's shld be 4.5 But maybe there is some auto trade .. If a robot/program is trading , it will just sell and may not see the ex price
This Quek is really smart. No one expected HLIND to hit limit down on ex-date. By pushing the price to hit limit down, investors got to chance to sell at all (at limit down, there is no quotation of buyers, only got quotation of sellers). Negative RM1.92 and negative RM1.08 will be negative RM3. And to make situation worse, Narra shares will only be given on 29.10.2014, that is, 11 market days after ex-date. By that time, Narra could fall to RM3. So, everything come back to square. No free gain at all.
What goes up must come down. X-date means adjustment downwards. Play over lar. If u holding HLI plus Narra at 3. Sell both u have MR8 at todays closing prices!!
all the confusion n panic is actually HLI EX adjustment is by par value of narra which is 1.08 . so 7.51-1.08=6.43 (reference) HLI yesterday close 4.51. therefore 6.43-4.51=1.92 limit down .....if the adjustment is market price of narra ...meaning 7.51-4=3.51 but HLI close 4.51 . it should reflect +1.00 . which is the top gainer of yesterday ....Got it ? don't be confused again..... yesterday HLI 4.51+ narra4= 8.51 ....all of you are making a lot of money !!!! Got it ?????????????????????
kclow ,now suddenly u sound sensible ,logical and level headed, can you continue to be this way ?? everbody will respect you if u do unless for some hidden agenda or reasons you are unable to ... then its yr karma you are facing
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
twim
302 posts
Posted by twim > 2014-10-14 09:13 | Report Abuse
Need to read up the entitlement between narra n hli. Those buying today better know the deal first