Posted by super911 > 2023-06-16 11:02 | Report Abuse

Hi dragon328,
Any idea why YTL still keep investing in telecommunication business? Every quarter, YTLP losing more than 100M in this segment. Where is their competitive strength vs other telco?

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 11:06 | Report Abuse

Big shareholder coming in now, whould be shoot over RM1

Posted by juon > 2023-06-16 11:10 | Report Abuse

so how? can masuk or not? later kena -RM1600 lagi & make me cannot sleep well because I beli using credit line

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 11:10 | Report Abuse

ya many of the hotels and shopping mall assets are parked under YTL Hosp REIT and Starhill Global REIT, but YTL is the ultimate owner of all these assets and will benefit if these overseas assets earn more from operations or strong currencies.

Besides, there are still many assets parked under YTL Corp directly such as the huge landbank in Sentul and Japan Niseko, and some hotels and resorts which have not been injected into REIT yet.

Posted by juon > 2023-06-16 11:12 | Report Abuse

no come in they press pedal to move forward, come in they main gostan / gear 6

susah la cari makan

Posted by Nelson Yoong > 2023-06-16 11:12 | Report Abuse

UBS GROUP AG already (IN) more than 5%.

Posted by yewnamhung > 2023-06-16 11:16 | Report Abuse

Well done go ahead ....

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 11:32 | Report Abuse

@super911, there is no quick answer to your question. But I try to give my thinking on this:

YTL has been in the telco business since it got the wimax licence some 10 years ago and no doubt it has been bleeding non-stop. All this while, YTL has been trying hard to gain market share in the competitive telco business but has not been successful as the industry has been dominated by Maxis, Celcom and DIGI which have lucrative voice business segment. What it has tried to do is to control losses by cutting operating costs to the minimum and by doing some government programs to help increasing the topline. If it exits the telco business now, how to exit? Who wants to take over? Take over for how much? It won't fetch much valuation which will certainly not enough to cover the capital investment so far.

It is waiting for a turning point, and I believe the turning point is coming now with the 5G roll-out. By getting access to DNB 5G network, every telco will have the same cost structure at least until the coverage reaches 80% nationwide. Hence YTL Yes will have the same competitive edge against every other telco in the 5G business. When it is rolled out to 80% nationwide, mobile 5G may be able to replace fixed line broadband service in every household as it will be cheaper (eg. RM30 per month for 30GB per 30 days or <RM80 for unlimited 5G data vs RM168 per month for unifi unlimited data) and faster (700 MBps - 1 TBps for 5G vs 300-500 MBps for fixed line broadband). For one, I will switch from unifi to mobile 5G then as I will save half the fee every month.

There are potential 10 million households in Malaysia and over 30 million mobile phone users. If YTL is able to get 10% market share for mobile 5G business, it will have about 3 million mobile 5G users. Assuming RM50 per month of mobile 5G fee on average per user, potential revenue for YTL Yes could reach RM150 million a month or RM450 million revenue per quarter.

Right now, Yes is doing revenue of RM109m a quarter and pretax loss of RM103m a quarter, meaning the operating costs are about RM212 million a quarter. So if Yes can do revenue of RM450 million a quarter, it will have a chance to turn in a pretax profit of RM238 million a quarter.

If it only gets 2 million mobile users, then potential revenue will be RM300 million a quarter and pretax profit will be about RM88 million a quarter.

For only 1 million mobile users, Yes could make revenue of RM150 million revenue a quarter and cut pretax loss to RM62 million from RM103m currently. Added back with non-cash depreciation, operating cashflows may turn positive then even with just 1 million mobile 5G users.

Then only it makes sense for YTL to consider disposing off this telco business and other telcos will consider taking over at a decent valuation.

Posted by super911 > 2023-06-16 11:50 | Report Abuse

Thanks Dragon. Your input is very helpful.

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-16 12:00 | Report Abuse

Ytl communication is 60% own by ytlp, the other 40% own by bumi partner.

Yes continues loss partly due to discontinue 1bestarnetnet by Muhyiddin, causing big impairment in asset value.

With 5g, equal level cost structure across all telecos now, at least allow yes implement fair marketing strategy to win some market share next year onward

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 12:04 | Report Abuse

The entry of UBS as the new substantial shareholder in YTL speaks loud on this promising growth stock

Posted by ocbc > 2023-06-16 12:11 | Report Abuse

YTL same like BJcorp/BJland, but run ahead , well done. My YTLland was privatized cheaply, so YTL will have 5x potential !!

Posted by Lam LH > 2023-06-16 12:22 | Report Abuse

I’m still holding some YTLland shares. Can someone enlighten me what should I do? Keep holding as delisted shares?

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-16 12:29 | Report Abuse

Lam LH
YTL privatise YTL land, YTL cement and YTL e solution, although trigger delist after hit threshold 90% acceptance, but still some didn't accept offer resulted YTL haven't 100% control till now, but reach 98-99% stake with minorities left over 1-2% continues holding unlisted share now.

As offer have lapse, minorities cannot do anything now unless call up management to do private arrangements.

However, minorities still able to enjoy YTL cement, YTL land or YTL e solution if these unlisted compang declare dividend to YTL corp

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-16 12:31 | Report Abuse

Another alternative is wait if YTL corp in future decided to relist again, but chance are very slim as YTL more willing to consolidate rather than dilute its money making subsidiary

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-06-16 12:32 | Report Abuse

Wah cheap purchased by UBS

Posted by Lam LH > 2023-06-16 12:32 | Report Abuse

@hng33 thanks for the info.Appreciate very much.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-06-16 12:38 | Report Abuse

With UBS on board. Will it attract more foreign IB to come in? Can enlighten?

Posted by ocbc > 2023-06-16 13:00 | Report Abuse

those who still keep YTLLand , just hold on n pass to your next generation, Definity worth 5-10x in the future. Remember YTL goals are to keep wealthly for more than 3 generations. :)

Posted by Lam LH > 2023-06-16 13:42 | Report Abuse

ocbc
Hope so. Offering at ridiculous low price.. keep for next generation.

Posted by Ran271221 > 2023-06-16 14:29 | Report Abuse

Pengalaman saya beli saham lebih drpd 20 tahun. Keuntungan bersih drpd saham adalah positif. YTL adalah growth stock sekarang dan EPS meningkat serta dividend.

Posted by xiaochen > 2023-06-16 14:46 | Report Abuse

UBS, listed as 3rd shareholder among those 30 largest shareholder.
HSBC Nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd– Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) Limited
506,561,781 (4.62%)
Annual report 2022, pg 74.

Posted by juon > 2023-06-16 14:49 | Report Abuse

Lai liao Lai liao , gostan gostan

Retailers masuk, confirm gostan play, lol

Posted by Albukhary > 2023-06-16 14:51 | Report Abuse

From my point of view, having UBS as shareholder is not a good news.
UBS take over Credit Suisse, and high chances UBS will liquidate all these assets that inheritage from Credit Suisse.

YTL share go went up so much since 31 Dec 2023, so when a fund manager choose to liquidate which asset, normally will choose that that already showing paper gain, instead of those that showing paper loss, coz once you dispose, the loss / gain will become realised.

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 15:00 | Report Abuse

Fund investment normally aim for long term, not that short as mentioned by Albu

Posted by Albukhary > 2023-06-16 15:05 | Report Abuse

If UBS acquire YTL on its own, then I am sure they won't dispose it.
But now problem is UBS is the white knight that force to acquired Credit Suisse, so I think high chances they will liquidate those old investment from Credit Suisse.

Posted by Albukhary > 2023-06-16 15:06 | Report Abuse

Above is just my personal opinion, and FYI, I am YTL shareholder as well.
I am in the position to thinking should I realized my gain or continue to hold.
If this news not come out, I will continue to hold as my target is above RM1.30

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 15:09 | Report Abuse

If the foreign fund wanna dispose it, my personal opinion they will dispose at higher price instead of this low price below RM1

Posted by Albukhary > 2023-06-16 15:30 | Report Abuse

@shpok4574, you think the YTL share price up from 55sen to 95sen in these few month (with huge volume) is done by retailer or local institute? Answer is No, it is done by UBS. Whatever you have enjoy or experienced in the share price for the past few months is very clear control and create by them. So now question is are they satisfy with this 70% gain, or they are looking for 200%, 300% gain.

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 15:36 | Report Abuse

totally agree with u, hopefully they push further

Posted by hng33 > 2023-06-16 15:41 | Report Abuse

Lets breakout RM 1.00

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-06-16 15:50 | Report Abuse

Is it possible Credit Suisse acquired at higher price than the current price?

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-06-16 15:51 | Report Abuse

How long they have been holding?

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 15:56 | Report Abuse

U need to study the previous annual report, hopefully they bought at 1.50

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 16:00 | Report Abuse

There were total 841 million shares traded in 3 weeks from 17 May 2023 when the share price jumped from RM0.665 to a high of RM0.985, assuming 50% of these were acquired by Credit Suisse/UBS, it means 420m shares were acquired at an average price of RM0.825.
Then the share price consolidated between RM0.90 to RM0.98 until yesterday with 300 million shares traded. Assuming again 50% of these were acquired by USB, then average price for these 150m shares was about RM0.94. So the total 570m shares acquired by UBS should average about (420 x 0.825 + 150 x 0.940)/(420+150) = RM0.855.

For a foreign fund to buy into a substantial stake like this, usually they will look for easily 50% to 100% upside from their average purchase price, so I am looking at RM1.28 as 1st target and RM1.70 as 2nd target for YTL.

Posted by cwc1981 > 2023-06-16 16:11 | Report Abuse

Thanks D328

Posted by shpok4574 > 2023-06-16 16:13 | Report Abuse

for a substantial shareholder, they are not so easy to dispose their shares into the market, investor always aware about the company announcement or news nowsaday

Posted by beluga > 2023-06-16 16:18 | Report Abuse

sold at 50% profit. i know i'll regret it as always. just like ytlpower. u guys should wait. :) Anyway what's so special about UBS being the new shareholder? "Disclosure triggered due to the legal closing of the merger between UBS Group AG and Credit Suisse Group AG and the aggregation of the relevant interest of both companies as upon closing Credit Suisse Group AG ceased to exist and UBS Group AG was the surviving entity." It's a known public info that previously HSBC NOMINEES ASING SDN BHD – CREDIT SUISSE HONG KONG LIMITED held 506,561,781 shares on record dated 22 Sep 2022. Now the merged entity triggered the 5% disclosure threshold.

Posted by beluga > 2023-06-16 16:25 | Report Abuse

a bigger American investment bank Morgan Stanley also bought Media Prima shares previously and i think still holding ... But nothing great came out from there. just for discussion sake and something to ponder.

Posted by moncmondo87 > 2023-06-16 16:26 | Report Abuse

Well spotted, beluga ...

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 16:31 | Report Abuse

If a foreign shareholder is just a passive investor like Morgan Stanley in Media Prima earlier, it did not bring any tangible benefit to the company.

But if the foreign shareholder is a prominent investor or a bigger growing company, then it may add value. The former case is a vote of confidence in YTL and the company prospects, the latter case is better with the new shareholder bringing in strategic corporate deals or construction order book for YTL.

We still do not know who is behind this 4.6% stake held thru Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) account, it should be for a rich client of Credit Suisse.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 17:02 | Report Abuse

Nice closing at year high 0.975 with heavy volume. MCement also closing at year high.

10m shares makan up at last minute to 0.975 is no small fish.

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-16 17:08 | Report Abuse

I suspect there could be another corporate move involving MCement coming soon

Posted by Kicapmanis > 2023-06-16 19:00 | Report Abuse

Such volume on last trade day this week.
Whats your opinion for investors like us. Keep averaging up or wait for next week price range. Btw ytl is my first counter.just started investing last month but missed the earlier boat

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-17 07:28 | Report Abuse

Contrary to one siasuay slanderer-cum-contrarian indicator on this thread, I am very much still invested in YTL despite paring my 6-yr-accumulated stake at the highest prices since 2020 & taking some well-deserved & earned profit to diversify into more undervalued, more immediate dividend payers. Also putting more into Japan, where YTL is dual-listed: my Mitsubishi Estate, purchased @ ¥‎1,638 less than a month ago, is already decently in paper gain. Unlike YTL, THEY bought their central Tokyo land in 1896... :)

Posted by dragon328 > 2023-06-17 10:02 | Report Abuse

Correction. Credit Suisse (Hong Kong) first appeared as a shareholder in YTL Corp with 4.6% stakes in Annual Report 2019, which means it acquired the stakes between Sept 2018 and Sept 2019. During this period, YTL share price was trading at RM1.10-1.40, so the average purchase price of Credit Suisse (HK) should be in this range. So it will not sell its stakes at anything below RM1.10.

UBS acquired the 0.8% stake in YTL after Sept 2022 when AR 2022 did not show its name as a shareholder. I assume UBS acquired this stake in past 1 month when trading volume was high, so its average cost of purchase should be between RM0.825 to RM0.94.

Posted by Lam LH > 2023-06-17 15:14 | Report Abuse

Most shares are bought under Cimb broking house. Even the 10m shares is purchased from Cimb.

Posted by chon99 > 2023-06-17 21:16 | Report Abuse

Foreign funds additional investment in YTL is a testimony of their confidence in the Malaysian government led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim , besides the stellar quarter results as at 31-03-2023

Posted by dompeilee > 2023-06-18 07:24 | Report Abuse

Some ppl only come here & hee-ho-haa when the price has already almost doubled from 50c to 90c. A small minority like me & dragon328 were here busily shopping when it was still in the mid to high 50c range in Oct...that's what separates the true winners from the wannabes.

Posted by speakup > 2023-06-18 08:16 | Report Abuse

Exactly! Many forums like this. When price is low, forum is very quiet. When price is high, suddenly many ppl in forum say they bought at low price 🤣