Maybulk is a good stock, I should have bought the shares when 56 cent, at that time of my evaluation but because of the too high circulating shares and their use of money to beef up the capital of the singapore subsidiary. But this is a hold for me. tp 1. good stock. If your cost is low, can keep.
Demand for dry bulk commodities Agencies Wednesday, June 15, 2016 When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them.
However, as the discussion over the market's future prospects is being dominated by the obvious tonnage oversupply, things could very well start to show modest signs of improvement in the demand-side of the market as well.
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean said in its latest quarterly report that "China's official GDP growth slowed to 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016. In the new five year plan announced in China in March the target for annual GDP growth during the next five years was set to 6.5 per cent.
This is the first time that the target set has been higher than the consensus estimate from various analysts. Although the Chinese authorities are focused on growth from "softer" sectors like services, they still say that no goals should jeopardise social stability or economical prosperity.
This could bode for some additional investments in infrastructure projects and fixed asset investments if growth is not kept at an acceptable pace. Moreover, control of infrastructure projects have been taken back centrally to Beijing.
March statistics for China showed better economic outlook, as both growth in fixed asset and infrastructure investments as well as new loans all showed signs of improvement. Growth in fixed asset investments picked up from the low in the past three months to 11.2 per cent, the highest since July last year, and growth in infrastructure investments has been on a downward trend in the last two years and dropped to a multi-year low of 8.6 per cent in December last year but ramped up to 22.5 per cent in March. Whether the recovery of growth will remain is of course the big question", said the shipowner.
Golden Ocean added that "when looking at the various main commodities transported, all of them had a slow start to the year.
With low commodity prices and forward curves in backwardation, building down inventories has been preferred to importing new volumes. Imports of coal to China were very low at the beginning of the year at around 13 mt per month, but picked up in March to 19 mt per month, which annualised is at around the same levels as last year.
There are some signs of stability, and as many Chinese mines are closing down and imports are a small part of the total volumes, in the shorter term there could also be some upside potential on these numbers.
India has had a high local output on coal and also has around 25 days of inventories available and has disappointed those that were most optimistic on India's substitution of Chinese demand".
The BDI rose w/w, mainly driven by higher rates in the Capesize vessel segment: Capesize earnings rose 11% w/w to $7.1K/day. However, Panamax earnings fell 4% w/w to $5.9K/day for the week ending June 3. Supramax index fell 1% while Handysize index rose 1% w/w. No period fixtures were concluded in the last two weeks. 1Y Capesize time-charter rate rose 4% w/w to $7.0K/day (source: Clarksons). •Forward curve points to higher rates in 3Q16 in all vessel segments except Supramax: FFA indications for Capesize TC are at $9.0K/day in 3Q16 (current: $6.4K/day), $11.0K/day in 4Q16, $7.0K/day in 1Q17. FFA for Panamax TC are at $5.4K/day for 3Q16 (current: $4.5K/day), $5.6K/day in 4Q16, $5.0K/day in 1Q17. FFA for Supramax TC are at $5.9K/day for 3Q16 (current: $6.0K/day), $6.1K/day in 4Q16, $5.6K/day in 1Q17. FFA for Handysize TC are at $4.6K/day for 3Q16 (current: $4.4K/day), $4.7K in 4Q16, $4.4K/day in 1Q17 (source: Clarksons, SSY). Capesize chartering activity fell 18% w/w to 37 ships but rose 9% y/y: 68% will carry iron ore (81% a week ago), 27% coal (18%) and 5% others (1%). Jan- Dec 2015 split: 77% iron ore (76% in 2014), coal 20% (18%), others 3% (6%). •China’s share of shipping demand rose, Europe’s share fell while the Rest of Asia’s share held steady: 68% of the Capesize vessels were chartered to carry cargo to China (from 67% a week ago), 84% carrying iron ore (86%), 12% coal (14%) and 4% others (0%). Europe's share of demand fell slightly to 13% (14%) and Rest of Asia's share remained steady at 19% (19%). In Jan-Dec 2015, the split was China 70% (vs 71% in 2014), rest of Asia 14% (14%), Europe 15% (14%), other 1% (1%). China’s iron ore inventories at ports fell 2% m/m but rose 18% y/y. •Ship chartering activity fell in Panamax and Handysize vessel segments: In the Panamax spot market, number of ships chartered fell 26% w/w to 32 vessels with coal/grain shipping demand driving 41%/38% of the ships chartered. The number of ships chartered remained steady for Handymax but fell 50% for Handysize. •Global bulk shipping capacity held steady m/m at 779.0MM dwt as at June 1: This is the 40th month of ≤1% m/m rise and implies only 0.8% growth annualized, well below the 8% growth implied by the orderbook. Scrapping removed 262 ships (20.2MM dwt) YTD (or c.6.3% of capacity annualized). New ship orders have dried up (bulkcarrier contracts fell 68% y/y to 250 ships in 2015 and 76% y/y in YTD 2016). Current orderbook implies 7.8% supply growth in 2016. However, like 2015, we believe net supply growth will be much lower (at 2.6% based on our estimates), driven by vessel delivery shortfalls (c.33% average in last 5 years). Potential bankruptcies could help remove some excess capacity. •Global ports congestion update: 76 Capesize vessels were at anchorage or c.5% of the global Capesize fleet. Details: 1) Australia’s main coal/ore ports – 33 (from 39) vessels plus 145 (125) vessels arriving in the next 14 days. 2) Brazil – 24 (20) vessels at anchorage plus 50 (56) vessels arriving in the next 14 days. 3) China’s major ore & coal berths – 12 (9) vessels at anchorage plus 54 (45) vessels arriving in the next 14 days (source: Gports as at June 9).
market sentiment halt the upward movement of this counter. anyone knows why market so bad today? fed no rate high did not have a positive impact on the market at all
BOJ dissapoint mkt with no new stimulus, it trigger stronger yen, and all hell broke loose.,
its nothign with fed, as nobody expected fed to raise rate due to its recent weak job report and coming brexit vote.
worst still, after fed meeting, boj meeting, nothing to insurance the world economy in event brexit materialised. the next fed meeting is another months away.
brexit will cause huge volatility in forex mkt which then filter tru the stock mkts via arbitraging and panic selling. risk off theme.
all money is hiding in german bond and japanese bond and Gold.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gusheng
624 posts
Posted by gusheng > 2016-06-01 16:17 | Report Abuse
will buy below 0.6