1. What I notice lately is the retailers like to chase over something that is yet to happen (i.e. rumours) and hoping it happens like DSonic, paying huge premium of 25x for their future profit without knowing what is the Capex, Profit Margin, & Payback period of the projects.
2. Similarly, the retailers become the followers of a particular businessman, disregard what business they are in. With the exception of Focal Aim/EcoWorld, on the pretext that Tan Sri Liew, retailer also chasing over Golsta, an MGO by Tan Sri Clement Hii.
3. The fun part is they just follow blindly without knowing the upside or downside. Some said, he has done it once, so he will do it again, not worrying at all about type of business to be injected, profit margin, what is the payback period, is the industry doing well or not. Some experts, say, it follows the personality. What? Like midas touch. Of course, if they already have shown the expertise (proven) in that industry, then, perhaps you can said it is ok.
4. SILK is the opposite of retailers interest. SILK had built 37 km of roads (Kajang Ring Roads), collecting tolls, at a double digit growth and prescribe rate hike in 2015, say 50% (guaranteed by government) - analyst gives a value of about RM400m (based on NPV of DCF.
5. SILK also owns 19 OSVs, chartered with oil majors for medium and long term. SILK is buying 49% of 4 ships it already owns 51%, getting delivery another 2 ships. All with charter in hand, and margin is good. Profit from these OSVs, analyst gives a value of RM320m or profit of RM32m.
6. Why retailers like to pay 2x, 3x or 4x, or many more times (without a clue), when you have something that will definite to show growth (although slower) than something they do not know what is going to happen, like DSonic, Golsta, others. Even they get the project, surely they need CAPEX, OPEX and RESOURCES to make it happen, it it also need time, one year, two years, or many years for property development.
7. I suppose retailers, they like to SPECULATE, or GAMBLE, if that is the case, I think Genting Highland provides a better probability of winning.
1. I mean retailers like speculation and quick gains. They prefer rumours than fact. In short, they don't want to think what they buy, just hoping it goes up.
2. SILK's profit can only grow slowly. Price move too slow for punters. Hope some operators come and play this stock. Provide some excitement. After all, toll roads won't run away and 21 OSVs won't just disappear. Risk is rather low. I have not value the land they own.
Yes, if it fall back, the margin of safety is even larger.
Two main area of growth:
1. Acquisition of 49% of four OSVs, to complete by 2H for FYE2014 (July), bring in new earnings of say, RM4-5m
2. Increase in traffic volume about 12%, profit will increase about RM5m p.a.
3. Interest cost at the moment is high, close to 10%, increase in cash flow from disposal of vessel & higher toll collection, will save RM1-2m and conversion of the loan stock will also save some interest.
Once the results improved (almost certain), this counter will move. Just monitor their earnings from toll (25%) and also OSVs (75%). Another counter - Perdana (only OSV) market cap it RM1.2 billion with similar number of vessels. SILK is only RM300k (of course diff sizes). At this price, buy and put it in the safe deposit box for 3 years, double is not a problem.
Unless analysts and operators catch on to this stocks like Protasco. Its like owing a Kajang ring road, knowing traffic will grow from MRT which attract new townships around the area as well as typical vehicle growth - this is quite certain. The million dollar question is when will it really move? Of course if you tell me it will only move in ONE year time, then of course, I will invest in other stocks and then come back later.
So far no announcement. The Kajang Ring Road already valued more than the market capitalisation today, and you can get the 21 units of OSVs free, and is valued about RM300-400m. Both toll and OSVs have earning growth potential. Hope it drop and let more people to collect.
The operator is playing hide and seek. Now you see me now you don't. Happen to many stocks lately. It is good especially when they plays with solid fundamental stocks like SILK, PROTASCO, HOVID, INARI etc.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Azli
1,082 posts
Posted by Azli > 2014-04-02 23:38 | Report Abuse
Vol will increase tmrw. Get ready.