This is a very interesting recovery stock. SILK owns about 37km ring road in Kajang. Cost about RM800 million. Not running away. Traffic growth last 4 years about 12% per year. Likely to continue for medium term. So, accounting loss is reducing yearly from 11m to 6m to positive in one or two more years. At todays market cap, it only pays for the Ring Road.
The other biz of 21 units of OSVs are given FREE with recurring income of more than RM30m. You do the maths. As when cash flow is improving (which can be seen), lower interest ail be converted into assets.
Similar to this, buy toll get OSV biz free (350+350m=700m), JTiasa, buy palm oil get timber concession free. Protasco, buy road maintenance get property development free.
Let us get down to the basic fundamentals for SILKHLD.
The Kajang Cheras road is the shortest in distance to KL but it is extremely congested and many of the daily commuters are diverting towards the Silk highway.The traffic in Silk highway will for sure increase with time in view of the mammoth projects by MKH and other developers in the Kajang vicinity and given time traffic in the Silk Highway for sure will increase significantly over time. Further rerating catalysts in medium term are: - more than expected traffic usage in the Silk Highway - OSV contracts with PETRONAS
The fundamentals for SILKHLD will get better and better over time
Oh great, is dropping back to 61 sen. While keeping most of it for long term, you may even trade this a couple of time. It has went up over 68-70 sen a couple of time and came back to about 61 sen.
For long term investors, just keep it and forget about the fluctuation. For those who like to trade a bit, buy around 61sen, dump when it goes close to 70sen, then buy again.
Good thing about this type of stock, no analysts will look at it at the moment. Hard to sell, because its toll road is making losses and its OSV is not in full capacity.
Two surprises you will get (a) when toll roads turn positive in one or two years time (improving 5-6m p.a.) (b) when OSV is in full utilisation (purchase of 49% balance + new vessels)
If have time, trade 10%, hold 90% for long term (2-3 years, actually this is short term for me)
If we over analyse the financial, we will be concern, because, you have to consider the conversion of some of its loan into equity, which will dilute the EPS
Best, if we look at it from a business perspective. CONSTRUCTION of ROAD is fully paid (loan is restructured and cash flow can handle). Next, volume is growing 12% and continue growing.
SIMILARLY, the earnings of OSVs not fully reflected. They have just bought the balance of 49% of 4 vessels and 2 or 3 new vessels (deliver gradually) and not FULLY utilised. And, today's OSV rate is not at its peak, in the mid way.
Wow, today climb 17%, very impressive. Lets see any announcements or reports on SILK this weekend.
What is the implication on the price next week with this announcement: NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS): FUND RAISING SILK HOLDINGS BERHAD (“SHB” OR “COMPANY”) PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT OF UP TO 30,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.25 EACH IN SHB (“PLACEMENT SHARE(S)”), REPRESENTING UP TO APPROXIMATELY 6.2% OF THE ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF SHB (“PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT”)
Depend on who is the recipient of this PP. Hope it's some relevant party who can bring the group to a new high. With O&G being in the play, this company will stand a good chance to secure good OSV projects. Good luck guys.
If the relevant party can add value to the business , it will be positive. Moreover the private placement will also help to reduce gearing and this is also positive.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bovun2014
252 posts
Posted by bovun2014 > 2014-04-23 17:23 | Report Abuse
really no idea what the dealer move?! Push up and let free fall. to scare contra player?