SILK went up from 64 sen to 88 sen in 10 days (37.5%). During the same period, SILK announced, a contract of RM22m, private placement at 72.5sen, disposal of 1.0m shares by Dato' Azlan (less than 1% of his holding).
The question is not whether such news cause the increase, it is more important if the news improved drastically the fundamental of the company. From what I can see, yes, the contract is a positive to the profits, and the private placement also improve gearing (which will reduce the funding costs).
The sharp increase, in price, comes together with the volume. The increase is too fast and naturally, it will consolidate a short while before moving further. So, it could be a good time to take some profits, and reenter when it falls back say to about 76sen. Just a thought.
Silk Holding (SIB MK) Technical BUY on pullback with +25.0% potential return Last price : RM0.845 (RM0.780~RM0.820) Target Price : RM0.905, RM1.00 Support : RM0.780 Stop-loss: RM0.750 BUY on pullback with a target price of RM1.00 with stop loss placed below RM0.750. Given our earlier BUY call at RM0.735 on 15 May 14, SIB has exceeded our initial target of RM0.870 before dipping lower over a normal pullback. Despite the current weaknesses, we remain positive over the medium-term outlook, thus the current pullback can be perceived as opportunities to buy on lower risk. A bearish crossover in stochastic along with dwindling volume in the past 3 days signal less buying interest. We expect SIB to make a “return move” to the immediate support of RM0.780. Investors may accumulate in the RM0.78-0.82 regions with the expectation that the trendline would remain above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
The passenger traffic in the SILK highway had been increasing and will increase further and that means increasing recurring income over time due to the massive mass housing cum commercial property development projects in Kajang by MKH, Gamuda, Mah Sing and other developers. The latest news is not positive for SILKHLD as its fundamental is going to change soon.
The latest quarterly results for MKH is fantastic and it is better to sell SILKHLD now and wait for opportunity to buy MKH on weakness.
the highway is worth more than market cap, unlock the value, now purely osv player, can have rerating in future years, was pissed they sold at SO CHEAP!!! RM398m? got so dumb or not? the highway tol rate scheduled to increase on july to RM1.80, and potentially sukuk interest to be revised down to 6% on jan 2015.. i am speechless.. they just reduce a RM2 company to RM1.20 just like that...
Prices and fundamentals do not react in linear way. That is why we have some stocks which are undervalued. Looking at its gearing, Silk is under pressure to clear its current liabilities, after it spends about RM140m buying new OSVs and increasing its equity in some of the OSVs. Their cash position is unable to clear the current outstanding loan of RM149m.
PETRONAS CEO, about 2 months ago, had cautioned that OSV rates will only go down in future as the supply is more than the demand. Unless SILKHLD value adds and differentiates its O&G business, future earnings will be just be average if based purely on OSV business prospects. To value add and differentiate its O&G business it needs a new business strategy, time to execute strategy and more capital investment to support the strategy that can truly add higher value to its O&G biz. At the moment its just OSV biz.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
rqsh
60 posts
Posted by rqsh > 2014-05-21 15:00 | Report Abuse
Uptrend will be around 9.35 closing worth to invest.