Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-10 16:03 | Report Abuse

Mudajaya has been doing very well in its business. If you look at its operating numbers, they are fantastic to say the least. But it lost the trust of institutional investors a year or so ago and hence its lethargic performance. It may need some time to recover from there. The other thing is its power plant in India. Somebody mentioned about the financial, political and social risks involved in this business in India and I think it is real. If you have read this favorite book of mine, Conspiracy theory: the true story of Enron, you will know that Mudajaaya is not the first which forayed into India in this business. Enron did it in the nineties, and because of those problems mentioned, Enron los their pants. Very difficult to solve problems. Hope Mudajaya won't fall into this type or predicament. That was why I dare not bet too much on the underlying share.

Posted by Andrew Law > 2013-01-10 16:07 | Report Abuse

India power plant more than malaysia. I'm quite confident they will solve this issue soon

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-10 16:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by minitrader > 2013-01-10 17:40 | Report Abuse

:) smile

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-10 20:49 | Report Abuse

2.82, 2.82, 2.82.
above 3 just call undervalue,
now is under undervalue

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-10 22:58 | Report Abuse

rkm powergen why untill now you haven't sign the fsa,the prime minister already give due date,still hang on, you know we are every day waiting,waiting, pls make it fast,

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-10 23:04 | Report Abuse

Eric ... hahaha. Agree but I think no big do.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-11 11:12 | Report Abuse

Attention Tabunh Haji boys: can you just `sapu' all those lots from 2.75-2.79, please? These are just small change lots for the big boys. If Mudajaya gets past 2.80, the investment banks which issued the call warrants are going to sweat Heheh!

Posted by passerby > 2013-01-11 11:14 | Report Abuse

walao, like that also can :) ?

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-01-11 11:14 | Report Abuse

Jangan mat, nanti kena UMA. Biar slow slow mari

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-11 11:25 | Report Abuse

they will tell you they are the one limit the price go up.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-11 11:39 | Report Abuse

MC, Solarcell,

LOL

Posted by Tan Cobby How > 2013-01-11 22:31 | Report Abuse

Ｉ　ｓｏｌｄ　ａｌｌ　ｍｙ　ｒｅｍａｉｎｉｎｇ　ｈｏｌｄｉｎｇ　ａｔ　２．７７　，　ｗｉｌｌ　ｃｏｍｅ　ｂａｃｋ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｉｔ　ｂｒｅａｋ　
２．８２

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-12 04:55 | Report Abuse

Posted by Tan Cobby How > Jan 11, 2013 10:31 PM | Report Abuse
Ｉ　ｓｏｌｄ　ａｌｌ　ｍｙ　ｒｅｍａｉｎｉｎｇ　ｈｏｌｄｉｎｇ　ａｔ　２．７７　，　ｗｉｌｌ　ｃｏｍｅ　ｂａｃｋ　ｗｈｅｎ　ｉｔ　ｂｒｅａｋ　
２．８２

Buy high sell low? Something very difficult to understand for me!

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-12 13:36 | Report Abuse

i think he base on technical analysis, only break 2.82 then real up trend is confirm.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-12 14:36 | Report Abuse

solarcell, then why sell at 2.77 now? And then buy back at 2.82???? Strange!!!

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-12 14:46 | Report Abuse

kcchong, I think he meant to buy at 2.82 breakout of resistance.
I see the price now at congestion. Quite common for mudajaya.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-12 14:47 | Report Abuse

kcchong, I think he meant to buy at 2.82 breakout of resistance. Top down approach/strategy.

I see the price now at congestion. Quite common for mudajaya.

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

76% share is in the top 30 shareholder,the are not few left in the market,accumulate now,when they sign the fsa with coal india ,this stock will easyly pass 3.20.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-12 17:59 | Report Abuse

solarcell/tonylim,
I am a layman. Like Lobo said, "I am just a simple man". I like Mudajaya. It is an efficient construction company. It has a tall order book which from the past I believe they can perform. With great prospect growth and high operating efficiencies. I bought Mudajaya for all these reasons. Please explain to me in simple terms why I must sell now at 2.77, and buy back when it it 2.82, which may happen next week? I have no clue of what this top down approach/strategy is. Neither do I know what is breakout resistance nor "congestion". All I know is Mudajaya presents good value and it appears that more investors are buying them now. I am so stupid to think the opposite way; ie buy more if it comes down more next week, or sell of if it goes above my target price.

Posted by tptan45 > 2013-01-13 00:39 | Report Abuse

Can anyone tell me why mudajaya keeps buying back it's own shares at market price and issuing esos at below market price. Who are the employees getting the esos? Does it mean the beneficiary of the esos gets instant profit? Will it affect the price of mudajaya? Thank you.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-13 01:26 | Report Abuse

kcchong, just to illustrate how I pick up kfima.

This share came right down from 2.40 to 1.75 a difference of 65sen. The downtrend was quite rapid. With the best of the best FA, why did it fell. I dont know.

I started to nibble when it went below 1.80 but can hardly buy more because sellers get less and not willing to give. To give to the next seller i have to give higher price. After 1.85 I took in another batch again small volume.

But after 1.90, I saw more buying and seller volume. Some how i feel that there is a change in trend or "interest in the counter". I started to buy more at a faster rate after 1.95, as it was now more liquid. Up to friday I was still buying, makan the seller at 2.01-2.02 in the morning. On certain days, you could see that somebody would throw a few lots downwards to make it red while I know it is trending up. Why I also dont know.

In this way, i find that my earlier qty which is smaller, with less market liquidity, whereas now I have much more exposure but with higher liquidity to profit take is much easier.

This way I have more comfort should I want to withdraw from the market or profit take specific counters. Same for KNM when it bottom out at 45-46 sen but liquidity was not an issue for this one taking into consideration my buying capacity. Plus 3 other counters with reasonbly big exposure.

If I take profit on kfima at overnight price on Monday, I would be in profit zone and achieved my investment objective.

For mudajaya, from my previous experience (not this round) I see range bound trading for some time. When will it reverse, I dont know. Ceteris parabus, I can only see further range bound prices but until liquidity increase with price advance and touch 2.82 onwards I would not be keen. Why? There are more than 1k counters in bursa where we can put our money into rather than buy and wait, at this time of the bursa indices.

I would risk a guess that Tan Cobby trades this way for M'jaya.

I would need no kudos or brickbats or anything should my strategy fail.
I am a seasonal player in bursa. In first qtr 2009, I did bottom up buying approach.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-13 08:33 | Report Abuse

tonylim, thanks for your explanation. I am still blur blur why one would want to sell low and then buy high. When I am interested in a company and its stock, I will buy it if it presents good value, say 40% below its intrinsic value. Why buy it in the first place if it is not worth the value? If the share price drops further and provided the fundamentals of the company has not changed, i would buy more. But if it goes up, and if the up is too much and approaching its intrinsic value, then i sell. So my strategy is totally opposite. Anyway, there is no right or wrong in investment. More important, each individual must be comfortable with his own strategy, I guess, and more importantly making money as a result. Thanks for all your effort in explaining to me.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-13 09:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tptan45 > 2013-01-13 10:13 | Report Abuse

Sorry for being repetitive, but this question has been nagging me for months.
"Can anyone tell me why mudajaya keeps buying back it's own shares at market price and issuing esos at below market price. Who are the employees getting the esos? Does it mean the beneficiary of the esos gets instant profit? Will it affect the price of mudajaya? Do they have to do it whole year round?"
TQ

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-13 10:14 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi, thanks for the explanation. I can understand you perfectly and somehow also accept your strategy without reservation that you won't buy Mudajaya until it is confirmed of uptrend at 2.82 or whatever price. Absolutely no argument. But my question is why sell at 2.77 now? Is Mudajaya in a downtrend now, so precarious that Tan Cobby How must cut loss at 2.77? Then when it goes up to 2.82, just 5 sen or 1.8% later that it is going to breakout to high level? What kind of rules are they? Are your rules the same on Mudajaya at this breakout and cut-loss levels? As I have said before, I am not qualify to argue with anybody about TA. Just curious and wish to know more.

Posted by lawrencelim > 2013-01-13 11:14 | Report Abuse

@tptan45, ESOS normally has a vesting (validity) period... You can refer to cash flow statements for the expenses incurred and proceed the company get from ESOS. Generally, it will increase the no. of shares. It would not directly affect the price. However, with the increase of no. of shares, the profit or dividend will be shared by existing shareholder will be lesser.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-01-13 11:24 | Report Abuse

Dear Kcchongnz,

Looking at Mudajya chart, his strategy is to sell at 2.77 because 2.82 is the major resistance. He feels that the price is top and there is no chance to cross 2.82. I agreed with his argument because 2.82 seems to be triple top.

If he is wrong, the price can cross 2.82, he does not mind to buy back if the price is > 2.82.

Base on TA, he is good in term of strategy because the price is trending side way between 2.50 and 2.82. This strategy is correct if he trades stock on side way movement. He buys > 2.51 and sells <= 2.82.

To me, he is a good student base on TA strategy. Once 2.82 is broken, this stock is on strong uptrend, the price will skyrocket up. I will also buy if the price is > 2.82.

Thank you.

Ooi

Posted by JayC > 2013-01-13 11:37 | Report Abuse

Esos that they issue is very minimal amount, can be negligible

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-13 11:39 | Report Abuse

Mr Ooi thanks for the explanation. Looks like all wise TA sifus think alike.

Posted by tptan45 > 2013-01-13 11:58 | Report Abuse

Thank you lawrencelim.
But I was thinking. In this ESOS scheme, the employee gets to buy a share of mudajaya @ 1.90 per share. That is immediate gain of 80 sen per share.
Who in is right mind would not exercise the option. If it goes to hardworking deserving employees, it is ok.
But isn't it open to abuse by certain parties?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-13 12:13 | Report Abuse

tptan45, agree with you. This is what is termed as agency problem. Managers benefit from the low exercise price of ESOS at the expense of the shareholders (in dilution effect of shares). Vesting period in this case has no meaning due to the low exercise price, 25% below market price. I am not too sure of the actual Mudajaya ESOS story. To be fair, the exercise price should be at least the prevailing market price. ESOS entitlement gain in the time value of this option because of the vesting period which could be quite valuable. Normally the top management would sapu most of these goodies. Few goes to the lower ranking stuff.

Posted by tptan45 > 2013-01-13 12:30 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, what makes mudajaya stands out is that it does this all the time. Most of its company announcements are concerned with share buyback followed by esos.
How can the share value goes up if the 'lucky' employees with eSos keeps cashing in the gain?

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-13 21:25 | Report Abuse

esos is good to encourage management even work better. if they can make mudajya perform better, the share price premium also go up.
further esos also help to keep talent employee, if they keep perform the company, there is nothing wrong to give them more share

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-14 03:49 | Report Abuse

solarcell. I do agree with you to certain extend. The interest of the employees and the shareholders must be aligned. With the share options, employees would work harder to earn more profit for the company. With better operating results, share price will go up. At the end both parties benefits and it is a happy family. The questions is if the interests of both parties are properly aligned?
1) Is the ESOS fairly distributed among the management and other staff?
2) Is there a long enough vesting period?
3) Does the exercise price provide an incentive for the employee to work hard to maximize shareholder value
4) Is this transfer of wealth fair to the shareholders?

Often the top management grabs the bulk of these goodies and leave behind pittance to the lower rank staff. Instead of providing incentive, it creates resentment of the lower staff, which completely defeats the purpose. With an exercise price of RM1.90 (Is this correct, tptan45?) when the market price is 2.70, and without long enough vesting period, how many employee would not cash out with an instant profit of more than 40%. And if they cash out, what incentive is left to work hard? What would happen to the share price? Mind you this instant profit of 40% is the transfer of wealth from the shareholders to the employee. Isn't that 40% a huge figure?

I have the feeling that this misalignment of this interest of the employee and the shareholders may be a cause of lethargy of its share price. Not sure though. The more important reasons are as suggested by me before; that Mudajaya has lost credibility due to its account discrepancies previously, and the uncertainties of its power plant project in India. However as of its operations, I still believe it has a lot of potential.

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-15 10:33 | Report Abuse

why NgYL always sell when the price want go up? although the quantity is small?

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-16 20:22 | Report Abuse

good news coming!alert

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-16 22:14 | Report Abuse

your sixth sense?

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-16 22:26 | Report Abuse

thru today buying style,

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2013-01-17 09:32 | Report Abuse

Come on!...tantalisingly close to -CJ's ex. price of 2.80.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-01-17 12:31 | Report Abuse

.

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-17 12:56 | Report Abuse

ya, so near. wish like this few day trend, afternoon near closing the buying in.

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-17 13:16 | Report Abuse

hopefully!

Posted by eric eow > 2013-01-17 21:53 | Report Abuse

comeon another 3 sen broke the resistant

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-17 22:08 | Report Abuse

osk report said stay above 2.8 end of the day then will break.

Posted by phyroxus > 2013-01-18 12:24 | Report Abuse

look like going down again... sigh

Posted by hasnurhashim > 2013-01-21 14:32 | Report Abuse

very bad today... :(

Posted by JASON80 > 2013-01-21 14:34 | Report Abuse

YA.. TODAY ALL STOCKS GOING DOWN . BIG BOY SELLING

Posted by solarcell > 2013-01-21 14:35 | Report Abuse

election is coming again? which wolf liao?

Posted by JASON80 > 2013-01-21 14:36 | Report Abuse

DOEST MATTER GE13 COMING OR NOT. NOW BIG BOY SELLING . SO U WANT TO KEEP ?