Happy Diwali CharlesT!:).... sifu has some truth in it...you have also some truth in it......just like the yin & yang connected at the hip... debate with sifu after Diwali ok?:) he he ... enjoy...
Wow, WealthWizard is the real sifu, his projection in Mycron's sales quantities & production capacity are really close, please refer the sales tonnes & production capacity to compare:
WealthWizard has changed the method of presentation by the management for Table 2 (page 7 of Annual Report), the company used to publish calendar year basis, please refer last 2 years (2014 & 2015) annual reports.
Now the management changed to financial year basis, good one!
Hi luilai, I am not sure if it has english version for ColdEyed Books, the original is chinese version. Appreciate if someone can enlighten here? Thanks in advance
Something new & really interesting on page 13 of Annual Report, the company disclosed the selling prices of HRC that sourced from locally & internationally.
What a good effort by the management to give transparency to investing community.
Unlike the up-stream steel industries in ore mining and/or raw steel processing, the Group’s mid-stream steel segments’ performance is less tied to the vagaries of iron ore or raw steel prices than compared to unfair competition and market distortion. In the last 36 months from the current financial year end, the prices of Hot Rolled Coil (“HRC”) which is the main raw material for the Group’s steel processing, has declined by as much 30% at the lowest point – as shown in the charts below. The Group’s better performance for the current financial year can be attributed to improved spreads between finished goods’ selling prices and raw material costs arising from a more levelled competitive landscape.
Domestic HRC prices typically have been higher than foreign HRC prices and are less elastic in respond to international price movement. This is due to the market protection regulations which domestic HRC producers have enjoyed in the past at the detriment of mid-stream manufacturers who are compelled by law to procure from domestic sources at higher prices. Despite the market protection, the two domestic HRC producers have halted production due to legacy problems in the 1st half of 2016. This coupled with the anti-dumping actions levied on Cold Rolled Coil imports from China, Korea and Vietnam, would promote a more levelled competitive landscape which should augur well for the Group’s mid-stream cold rolled and down-stream steel tube manufacturing.
With no domestic HRC manufacturer currently in operation, the Group has been importing all its HRC needs, mainly from Japan, but with some minor supplies from other regional countries. Fortunately, having had a very long history of importing Iron Ore Based HRC from reliable suppliers, the Group is well-positioned to continue its business without any disruptions to its operations.
The Malaysian government’s current import duty for flat steel material of 15% is considered reasonable enough, to shield the industry from dumping practices of steel manufacturers that enjoy export subsidies from their respective governments (e.g. China). As CRC is an important component for the manufacture of many downstream products such as automobiles, white goods (e.g. television, computers, handphones, rice cookers, refrigerators, air-conditioners, etc.), drums for petroleum and palm oil export, furniture and roofing sheets, protecting the supply of CRC is key to securing the country’s long-term position as a major trading and manufacturing base for the world.
Although the steel industry is highly competitive and is subject to significant global supply and demand anomalies, the prospects for the business are still positive as global demand grows. To this end, the Group is currently exploring the opportunities for export of its CRC and Steel Tube products, to take advantage of recently signed free trade agreements.
A plus point for local CRC manufacturers was the recent anti-dumping action taken against CRC imported from South Korea, Vietnam and China in May 2016.
Going forward, domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of growth, supported primarily by private sector spending. Private consumption is expected to expand further, underpinned by continued growth in wages and employment, as well as additional disposable income following government stimulus measures. Projects under the newly launched 11th Malaysia Plan should also augur well for the steel industry as a whole.
Cold eyes disposed of his stakes in SSteel. Very smart move, he foresaw the operation cessation of HRC plant by Ssteel. If cold eyes took position in Mycron (net debt), I'm somewhat sure cold eyes will also have stakes in Cscstel (net cash).
Anyway, we should not be too obsessed by coldeyes' participation. As I said, coldeyes provides the endorsement. Most importantly, we should be able to develop own judgement and make independent investment decision.
Agreed!!! buddyinvest, thumbs up! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Anyway, we should not be too obsessed by coldeyes' participation. As I said, coldeyes provides the endorsement. Most importantly, we should be able to develop own judgement and make independent investment decision.
Posted by ronnietan > Oct 25, 2016 07:38 PM | Report Abuse
Welcome back, WealthWizard. I get the 26% increase in CRC price in China, which should have a similar effect here. But can you reverse engineer or forward engineer Mycron's results to such detail? Anyway, my view is if you get the direction right, it's good enough. What's your day job? Financial engineer? Evening job: wizard. :}
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
moneySIFU
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Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-10-28 16:24 | Report Abuse
Melewar are owned by NS Royal Family