Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 11:07 | Report Abuse

From Seagate data - demand for note book & laptop cause HDD sales drop , But other area increase.
Seagate forecast Q315' might drop only 6% due to Europe sales. The reason is due to currency N business environment . Not even mention competition from SSD.
My opinion for JCY more important is qty.IF HDD PRODUCE drop 6% this year, as Seagate forecast WILL STILL fine for JCY due to ringgit malaysia BEEN depreciate more than 15% this year. Benefit for JCY . Please refer to JCY 2014' annual report pg 86.(FINANCIAL STATEMENT)

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 11:18 | Report Abuse

First you say HDD is not dropping and now you admit it is dropping but will be offset by ringitt. So if ringitt start to appreciate because Oil price recover then JCY earning it will be fine just like HDD? or let me guess you want to ignore oil prices and ringitt as well the same way you want to ignore SSD.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 11:19 | Report Abuse

Correction: The recent negative results posted by Notion was due to provision for forex. Its operation especially on HDD is positive and growing.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 11:26 | Report Abuse

As i know few year ago , (if mistake please correct me) Notion produce parts for NIKON, n much depend on NIKON DIGITAL CAMERA SALES.Due to smart phone have camera operation cause Nikon sales drop. Notion become loss. After that notion try other field up to now the result still NG.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

From 1ST HALF 2015 WD RESULT HDD SALES 125.7 MIL VS 2014 249.2 MIL (yearly ) , DROPPING????
Seagate only forecast Q315' RESULT WILL DROP 6% , PLEASE WAIT TILL Q315 RESULT COME OUT ....OK.
Please look at whole year result not particular quater result!!!

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 11:37 | Report Abuse

Notion:
Contribution from camera segment has decreased significantly from the previous about 33%(early14) to 28%(q1fy15).

The reasonable operational profit was contributed mainly from the growing HDD on increased sale orders and higher selling price.

Posted by kitykat > 2015-03-22 11:40 | Report Abuse

let the market decide in the next few weeks/months by JCY share price movement on who is right and wrong. I tend to agree with ray as everything he say is backed by fact/evidence which not many other forumner have provided in their comments.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 11:44 | Report Abuse

I learned one lesson from Notion, if camera on smart phone can kill biz of Nikol(camera biz of Notion) quickly, there is a chance that SSD kills HDD in the same rapid way. Therefore I cannot claim that my investment on JCY is safe. I am now taking risk betting on the big earning by jcy from the lousy weak rm.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 11:46 | Report Abuse

Even Seagate HDD sales for 2014' =221 mil, 1 st half 2015 =116.4 mil . DROPPING?????

Posted by Sat7101964 > 2015-03-22 11:47 | Report Abuse

Seagate invested a billion ringgit plant at Batu kawan, expected by end of next year start production, this would benefit to JCY ? Or JCY only focus on WD?

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 11:51 | Report Abuse

Weak RM is not purely due to oil price. There are many other factors such as 1MDB, inefficient government, debt level, Hudu, outflowing of foreign investment, talent drain, just to list a few.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 12:00 | Report Abuse

Ray , i said I confident JCY will GOOD 2015 n 2016, later i don't know.
you think RM will appreciate b4 2016' , i don't think so !!!!
So many reason, Japan QE , Eu QE , 1MDB ISSUE n..........

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 12:19 | Report Abuse

Have exact same view as longnian that JCY will be great in 2015 and RM will not back to 3.3 in 2015. Beyond 15, I will not in JCY anymore.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 12:27 | Report Abuse

Please take a look Japan YEN, EU dollar, Australia dollar , British POUND , Singapore Dollar , Indonesia RUPIAH, RUSSIA, TURKEY N ...... vs USD ANY APPRECIATE FOR 2015'??????

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-22 13:27 | Report Abuse

Seagate expand even bigger factory than WD at Batu Kawan, it have awarded, now under contractor bidding state.

sandisk Batu Kawan, SSD mainly using wafer and IC, I think will benefit to unisem and MPI in near future. (now import from japan Toshiba)
for mechanical parts... I don't know from who.. maybe is JCY!!

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 13:38 | Report Abuse

1Q15'( OCT 14' ~DEC 14' )JCY reported FOREX GAIN = RM16684K. same period RM depreciate vs USD 5% . (RM3.21 FY14' to RM 3.37 FY15' AVG 3 MONTHS ). RM16684K = 3.42 % 1Q15 REVENUE.
Imagine how much FOREX GAIN will get for 2Q15' (JAN15~MAR 15) RM depreciate from RM3.30 FY14' TO RM3.63 FY15' AVG 3MONTHS. about 10% (double 1Q15')????
Forecast atleast $25000K.
Please study also JCY revenue for last 6 quarters between RM452630K TO RM487868K QUITE STABLE.If 2Q15' revenue about same as previous 6 quarter OR between above figure, EPS will increase a lots.
Why people said JCY is a bad counter!!! i totally don't understand.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 13:49 | Report Abuse

Longnian: you have a great mind. I did the same estimation on extra gain from forex. On top of that, I also perform a worst case reverse calculation that if RM starts to reverse(strengthen) from now on, it will take 6 months to go back to the day when jcy starts accumulating the rm16.6 mil, meaning rm25 mil end Mar15, rm16.6 mil again end Jun15. Thereafter, I do not know.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 13:53 | Report Abuse

Q115 JCY EPS= 2,47 cents, Dividend payout = 1.25 cents , Dividend payout ratio =50.61%.
JCY been pay dividend every quarter since last year. If EPS up mean dividend up. WILL HUAT LATER.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 13:54 | Report Abuse

Eps will increase significantly, so do dividend payout as jcy used to pay ~50% of its PAT when company made profit in the past. When investors realize that jcy deliver very high five, many will rush in.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 14:13 | Report Abuse

Bsngpg - now a day i monitoring RM daily perfomance due to beside JCY, I invest a lot on export counter since early last year such as HOMERITZ , LATITUDE N PROLEXUS.
Up to today i notice RM will only depreciate vs USD. Example last Friday euro up 162 basic point vs USD but RM still down 35 point -abnormal condition this might due to FITCH downgrade as newspaper mention & 1MDB???

http://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

i use above webside to monitoring RM & OIL PRICE - REAL TIME

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 14:17 | Report Abuse

I invest a lot in export related counters too such as MPI, inari, Gtronic besides jcy.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 14:20 | Report Abuse

Even last Friday RM depreciate to RM3.74 +++ AT 1 TIME.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 14:37 | Report Abuse

I opine 3.80 is within reach at any time.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 14:39 | Report Abuse

Rm at all time high on Friday yet share price can drop almost 5%. What does this tell you? The market doesn't care about poor earnings dressed with forex gain. The market is more worried about coming 3D nand ssd and the immenient death of hdd in the next few months. My guess is the price will continue to fall harder all the way until June/ July until reaching bottom at .30+. It will be stuck that level for a long time until Jcy diversify away from hdd.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 14:56 | Report Abuse

Young man . you know what is correction in stock investment!!!!
JCY been up from 0.50 to 0.77 last 6 months need times to take a rest b'4 up again!!!!
Pls. tell me which counter NEVER facing correction b'4 up to new high?????

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 14:57 | Report Abuse

Please don't jump to conclusion base on 1 week performance.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 15:02 | Report Abuse

it will be a severe correction like the last 4 times since listing and will rest at .30+ for a long time.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 15:04 | Report Abuse

This counter good at creating lower low. Just ask many still trapped since listing.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 15:11 | Report Abuse

I think you are the one!!! So you HATE this COUNTER?????

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 15:18 | Report Abuse

Ray , so you say BAD things to this counter for REVANGE !!!
Pls. admit!!!!

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 15:18 | Report Abuse

Iam not vested and never have been And do not have any emotional attachment to it like many those vested. Iam only pointing out the truth which many of those vested want to deny so that small fish do not get trapped at .30

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 15:22 | Report Abuse

Since you NEVER invest in this counter , Why you PRAY to down to 0.30 ????
What is the reasons???? N what will you get????

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 15:33 | Report Abuse

Ray, please admit that you suffer on this counter before. If JCY 0.30 all the investor will suffer.
Why you so BLACK HEART?????? he.. he..

Posted by Ntpboon > 2015-03-22 15:33 | Report Abuse

若从USB flash drive 取代floppy disk 来看，
HDD被SSD所取代只是时间问题而已。

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 15:47 | Report Abuse

You are getting emotional again and ignoring the facts. I have never invested in this counter and never will because hdd will be killed by ssd very soon.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 15:53 | Report Abuse

My opinion - if you let me choose & buy 2 unit 500GB HDD OR 1unit 1TB HDD , I RATHER choose 2 units 500GB HDD. SAME AS HDD N SSD THE SPACE IS ABOUT SAME. FOR SAFETY N COST PURPOSE
But USB FLASH DRIVE SPACE IS MUCH DIFFERENT WITH FLOPPY DISK . 100TIMES/???, 200TIMES EVEN MORE.
THIS IS THE DIFFERENT BETWEEN HDD VS SSD, N USB VS FLOPPY DISK.

IF I WRONG PLEASE CORRECT ME!!!

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:03 | Report Abuse

My opinion is base on daily usage n experience.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:10 | Report Abuse

If you have data 1TB to save - you will save at 2 sets HDD 500GB or 1 set HDD 1 TB????
For me 2 sets HDD 500GB. for safety purpose. Even if 1 sets spoil i still have 500GB data. But if 1TB SPOIL all my data gone.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:14 | Report Abuse

UNLESS SDD space is 100 times HDD then hdd will facing big problem as floppy disk vs usb.

Posted by Ntpboon > 2015-03-22 16:42 | Report Abuse

我用floppy disk 与USB drive 的比较，是基于新的科技取代旧的科技。
至于儲存量的比较，应该是单位成本的比较。
目前SSD也有1TB的，只是售价比HDD 来的高。
还有SSD 的读写速度是HDD 没法比的。
我要说的是当今是科技時代，新的科技必然取代旧的科技，何况速度恰恰
是重要的。比如说在投资上你比别人更快拿到资讯，你将处在有利的地位。

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:45 | Report Abuse

i think this is the reason why SSD up to today still can't over take HDD after 3 YEARS laouching, HDD STILL HAVE THE ADVANTAGE on price, n SSD space ISSUE not MUCH different with HDD.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:52 | Report Abuse

For data saving what more importants - speed or space???? What is your opinion????
HDD N SSD MAIN FUNCTION IS DATA SAVING . The most important is space not speed reading.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 16:53 | Report Abuse

Same as usb n floppy disk main purpose is data saving not speed reading.

Posted by Ntpboon > 2015-03-22 17:06 | Report Abuse

尚未被取代並不代表不会被取代。
我个人認为HDD是夕阳产品，不适宜长期投资。
至于短期投机则見仁见智。

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 17:06 | Report Abuse

My opinion for data saving most important is COST, SPACE , RELIABLITY.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 17:14 | Report Abuse

You argument is weak because it is based on personal opinion and emotion. You cannot deny the truth and facts and evidence that ssd will kill hdd very soon. Even if you buy 4 hdd instead of 1 the truth and facts that Ssd will kill ssd.

Your comment about speed once again tells me you know nothing about both ssd and hdd. let me spoon feed you again. The root of the faster performance lies in how quickly SSDs and HDDs can access and move data: SSDs have no physical tracks or sectors and thus no physical seek limits. The SSD can reach memory addresses much faster than the HDD can move its heads.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 17:19 | Report Abuse

As i mention if 1 day SSD space is HDD 100 TIMES OR MORE than HDD. then I think HDD will OBSOLETE like floppy disk. If no i think HDD will survive in the market.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 17:24 | Report Abuse

Ray, let us meet at this forum 6 months later, weather hdd will obsolete or not. OK!!!!

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 17:30 | Report Abuse

That day is coming in the next few months with 3d nand because it can store up to 16 times more then any existing product. You know why? Because it is stackable.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 17:32 | Report Abuse

Same as computer some model with high speed some with low speed, also smart phone. the low end product still have market.