Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 15:11 | Report Abuse

yaya, they said for automation mah, no more NEpal, Bangla. OR, maybe SSD??

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 15:17 | Report Abuse

I think is Auto.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 15:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks RaymondTang for the link. The link said HAMR is launch in 2016 by Seagate. This means we will expect 10TB HDDs next year with scaling to 100TB in 2025. Already link is implying HDD is here to stay for the next 10 years. I rest my case about HDD vs SSD.

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 15:20 | Report Abuse

HDD cost today is $0.08/GB. SSD is at $0.80/GB using TLC technology. What would be the cost/GB in 3D NAND ?

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-20 15:24 | Report Abuse

JCY just a component supplier for HDD, present machines & facility can produce other spare part
for other field.( if HDD sales going down or HDD cannot compete with SSD in-future.)Why so worry??? Let this problem for JCY TOP MANAGMENT TO SOLVE!!!
At present what i know is FOREX GAIN from sales . TODAY USD EXCHANGE RATE = RM3.72+++.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-20 15:26 | Report Abuse

I tot someone said differences now only x3??

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-20 16:50 | Report Abuse

Put theory aside for awhile, action was that 10 lots has been bought at 0.705.

Ok, we can now continue our literature discussion again.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-20 17:05 | Report Abuse

failed to buy at 0.70.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-20 18:07 | Report Abuse

RM5/lot, 10 lots=rm50, I gave it.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-20 18:27 | Report Abuse

they are going to venture into SSD with their CNC machines??? even resorting to rumours of diversification into auto (and go the way of the almost now extinct notion vtec- you might as well tell me they will also buy a silver mine too soon). The truth and facts have hit a raw nerve with many here with many now getting emotional and ignoring the facts having no understanding of the industry.

FACTS:
SSD sales booming and price of SSD is depreciating rapidly. 2 years ago it was 10X the price of HDD. 2 years later it is now about 5x. Breakthrough 3d NAND SSD flash technology is coming mid this year which will see a furhter dramatic drop in pricing in SSD like never before.

HDD sales for both WD and seagate on the decline while SSD sales are booming at over 230% a year.

Both WD and Seagate have been buying up SSD flash makers to position themselves for the transition to SSD.
http://www.crn.com/news/storage/300075127/western-digitals-hgst-acquires-skyera-plans-enterprise-flash-solutions.htm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/09/us-westerndigital-acquisition-idUSBRE9880I120130909
http://techreport.com/news/26524/seagate-buys-sandforce-from-lsi-in-450-million-deal
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/02/27/seagate-partners-with-micron-to-improve-presence-in-enterprise-ssd-market/

The writing is clearly on the wall. JCY may report another reasonable quarter again but that will be once again dressed with the currency gain which when peeled away will make their real sales profit very poor. Ringitt will not weaken forever and and USD will not appreciate forever. The market knows this and this is why the share price cannot be sustained. Dividend also looks nice on the surface but look deeper and the risk of holding this counter for the dividend does not make any financial sense. for example someone who bought at .76 when the result was announced has made a 6 sen loss in order to get 1.25 sen of dividend. Massive capital loss for a small amount of DY makes no sense especially with the coming threat from SSD.

Posted by mikashearer > 2015-03-20 20:19 | Report Abuse

For future we never know.... revenue down is not good for any company but if they can control their cost and give the dividend every quarter..... it will be good company to invest....

Posted by Gooseman > 2015-03-20 23:45 | Report Abuse

Agreed.

Posted by kitykat > 2015-03-21 10:16 | Report Abuse

panic selling on monday looking at the big selling volume yesterday. .

Posted by sense maker > 2015-03-21 11:32 | Report Abuse

NTA of JCY is 57sen a share now and it is making 13sen free cash flow a share a year. Those who buy at 70sen will secure their capital one year from now. Every sen of FCF after that is profit for their investment and JCY gives generous dividend. So, 70sen is not high or a risky price to enter in my view. Scaremongering is good for those who want to enter at a lower price.

Shareholders should take the opportunity to ask directors if JCY can maintain their last quarter performance or survive beyond 1 year (:D) and about all points highlighted by Raymondtang for JCY's planned counter measures against SSD threat next Wednesday.

In particular, ask them whether JCY will drop to 30sen in June/ July 15 and if so why the MD bought at 74sen a few days back. :D

Posted by kitykat > 2015-03-21 11:59 | Report Abuse

I will not touch this counter even at .30. Looking how the drop from .75 to .47 late last year a month after the MD bought at .72+. This time MD use ESOS to buy most the share at .61 so less risk to him.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-21 12:08 | Report Abuse

According to that raymonde,director idiots buying back shares at 0.74. I think he knows better than director of its own company yeah

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-21 14:07 | Report Abuse

If directors jump over a cliff will you follow? All the directors got burned last year when the price was around current range and they started buying in only to see the price drop to .47 as already mentioned by many here. Most of the director bought using Esos price of .61 including the recent buys last week. You know this fact just like all the other facts you want to ignore and want to keep saying they bought at .74 when in fact they bought 1million shares at .61 using Esos and only 500k at .74 from market.

Sense if this counter is so good you should buy 1 million shares at .70 when market open on Monday morning. Prove to us how confident you are in this counter. If the directors can tell you how low the price will collapse, they will not be trapped in this counter for so many years. Since listing the price collapse from ipo price 1.62 to .40. Then Thai flood made price go up from .40 to 1.60 and collapse again to .50. Then last year the price went up from .50 to .75 and collapse again to .47. This year price recover from .47 to .75 and look like another major collapse coming soon. The price has collapsed in a major way over 4 times since it got listed and each time the directors did not see it coming. Do you think they will see the coming major collapse? I think this one coming will be a big collapse due to ssd and the price will not be able to recover. Many long term investors will be burned along with the directors yet again.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-21 14:30 | Report Abuse

Why share price of those earn usd companies such as semi-con, furniture, gloves, condom etc shot up so high lately but not JCY especially it had shown 16.6 million extra earning in the latest qtr purely from the strong usd ?
To me, the reason was that investors discount its valuation for the uncertainty of the long term development of HDD in the face of the aggressive SSD.

All risks created by SSD toward Jcy as described by few forumers above undoubtedly hold water, but the hard core fact is that jcy is still earning good profit from both HDD and strong usd at least for the last(q1) and current qtrs(q2). Seeing the unabated weakening RM, the extra earning from strong usd will definitely flow over to q3, meaning JCY will deliver beautiful earning in May and Aug15. By then do you think investors will still resist to the temptation of the good earning?

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-21 17:18 | Report Abuse

Because those other company have good long term prospects. Jcy is in a sunset industry with no long term prospect and not diversified. breakthrough 3D nand ssd technology coming out from Intel in a few months which will kill hdd. Then it doesnt matter how much the earnings is dressed up with forex gain. The funds will dump the shares before this happens as they have many analysts who know the industry and know what is coming. Some of the fund holding up to 50m shares so you can guess what will happen to the price when they start to exit. the volumes sold down on Friday were not small and must be big holders.

Posted by Johnnys > 2015-03-21 17:51 | Report Abuse

Still remember when Unisem and MPI drop below RM 1 and RM 3, some one create the account call Julie2, comment all kind of Negative to both.
time and result will give us the answer. whoever listen to negative comment can sell, whoever like high DY (more than 6% now)can buy on early next week, early next week should have good price to buy. unless they control it RM 0.70

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-21 18:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Ray: you are great and having my high respect.

I opine what Ray had said is very solid, I have the exact same worry with one exception which is "timing". I bet the required time for SSD to kill HDD would take much longer time than described, meaning jcy has good chance to glory again this year with the current reasonable good demand on HDD and strong extra earning from forex.

When there is a worry, why should I invest in jcy seeing tremendous other good counters out there for selection?

Ans: I treat jcy as a proxy which is taking big advantage from the unabated weakening RM. It is something like playing forex where an attractive bid is offered thru jcy. Furthermore it comes with high dividen as sweetener.
If excluding forex gain, frankly speaking, jcy's biz model is not my cup of tea. I trade jcy for short to mid term only. Once I sense RM is to rebound, I will jump ship.
Thks.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-21 19:35 | Report Abuse

Unfortunately the market is a forward mechanism and it will anticipate the decline in hdd way before it becomes obsolete. The same way the share price for any counter starts to move up before any good result is announced the price can also start to decline way before an actual event takes place. this has started to happen because of the 3D nand ssd breakthrough and the market sees this as a very big risk. In good time everyone want to get in first. In bad time no one want to be the last one to get out.

Posted by kitykat > 2015-03-21 19:51 | Report Abuse

Agree with Ray.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-21 19:59 | Report Abuse

All back to personal judgement on Timing. You judge it will come very fast, whereas I judge JCY will be very safe for at the very minimum 12 months to come. Furthermore HDD is not a lame sitting duck waiting to be slaughtered. Technology advancement of HDD is moving very fast too. Who knows, the game may end up HDD kills SSD with some accidental breakthrough in technology. Let's time tells.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-21 20:20 | Report Abuse

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/WDC/4126643538x0x805254/532FED91-164F-4A2E-8229-34297883A65A/Q215IIS.pdf

Please refer to attach Western Digital Quarterly Fact Sheet for Q215' (OCT 14~ DEC 14' ) .
Revenue for HDD = USD 3888 mil , SDD = USD 187mil ( SDD SALES ABOUT 5% HDD SALES ONLY).
From the data, SDD been launch since Q312', sales increase from USD 11mil to USD187mil (Q215').All those SDD sales increase a lot ( 30%++ every quarter ). Sales for HDD not much effect . still maintain at USD3600mil ++++ .
Why worry , SDD still have big gap to catch up HDD!!!!

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-21 20:33 | Report Abuse

Sorry not SDD but SSD!!!

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-21 20:38 | Report Abuse

Thts why. Some ppk don't talk with facts?

Posted by bracoli > 2015-03-21 20:41 | Report Abuse

Haha paperplane u oso IN JCY?

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-21 22:11 | Report Abuse

Little only. Actua

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-21 22:17 | Report Abuse

No matter how great we are in analysis on a particular industry, in this case HDD, we are still outsiders gathering info piece by piece from here and there. Whereas directors of JCY are proven entrepreneurs delving directly and deeply in the industry with their multimillion capital. If JCY is in catastrophic threat, they would be the first one to know far before any outsiders, those professional analysts included. Basic common sense would tell that no one would keep 75% shareholding of a company which is under imminent catastrophic threat.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-21 22:53 | Report Abuse

SSD been launch since 2012' - 3 years ago, sales for HDD maintain at about 240 mil++ sets for 2012. 2013. 2014 and even 2015 1st half = 125.7 mil sets,( please refer to my previous attachment.)
From WD data i can't see any sign sales decline for 2015'.
Why someone comment that HDD will decline sales n even obsolete another 6 months.?????
Base on what say that????
I think WD data is most accurate because WD produce about 43% HDD world market.

Posted by paperplane > 2015-03-21 23:36 | Report Abuse

Yaya someone said he talk with facts Mah. Now he keep quiet .haha. Saying ssd to threat hsd. Which really untrue now loh

Posted by Cherrie > 2015-03-21 23:55 | Report Abuse

Dear all,i m new here. Don't fight. My opinion is both has its own market and they will be coexist in the market.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 04:15 | Report Abuse

I am not fight. I am confident JCY will perform well 2015' & 2016' base on WD data.
But someone comment - seem like JCY going to ' close shop ' another 6 months. Make all the JCY's shareholder nervous n panic. Some more , The Comment without any fact n data , just predict & shown his technical knowledge.
I really don't know his purpose behind his comment.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 07:18 | Report Abuse

http://www.global.tdk.com/ir/ir_events/conference/2015/1q_3.htm

Please refer attach TDK ( the only dedicated HDD head maker) increase forecast HDD SALES FOR 2015' FROM 535 mil to 552 mil. This is the evidence HDD sales will never drop for 2015'.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 07:38 | Report Abuse

Longnian: a very good morning to you. I have confident that jcy will be fine for at least this year. Thanks a lot for giving booster to JCY.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 07:43 | Report Abuse

Good morning bsngpg , welcome.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 09:08 | Report Abuse

The facts and supporting evidence has been provided but the ones who have vested in JCY keep denying these factsl. Let me give you some more facts since I have to keep spoon feeding many here.

WD and Seagate are laggards in the SSD that is why they have been buying up SSD makers to position themselves in ssd. The facts/evidence already provided
in the 4 links in my previous post (scroll up to read so I dont have to double spoon feed). The top 3 SSD makers are Samsung with a nearly 30% world market share, Next is Intel with about 14% market share and followed by Scandisk, Toshiba and Micron.

FACT: http://www.kitguru.net/components/ssd-drives/anton-shilov/samsung-remains-the-worlds-largest-maker-of-ssds-gartner/

WD and Seagate do not even make it on the top 6 SSD producers in the world. To use their finanacial reports as the basis for SSD sales is a joke. Its like trying to compare SSD V HDD sales by only looking at SSD maker SANdisk financial results.

SSD have been around longer then 2012 and the price has been dropping drastically. SSD 3D NAND technology is a recent breakthrough which will be launched by Intel and many other SSD makers mid this year and kill HDD. FACT: http://www.itworld.com/article/2851057/intel-and-micron-are-going-to-kill-the-hard-disk-drive.html

Toshiba and Sandisk are also about to start producing 3D NAND.

FACTS:
Toshiba and SanDisk to start producing 3D NAND flash memory in Japan
http://www.australianmanufacturing.com.au/16810/toshiba-and-sandisk-to-start-producing-3d-nand-flash-memory-in-japan

* The new and advanced 3D NAND technology can store 16 times more than any other existing products.

* Research firm IHS reveals this portion will see a dramatic expansion to 30.2% in 2015.

* Toshiba and California-based SanDisk will split the cost and invest up to 500 billion yen ($4.9 billion) in the new facility in Japan.

FACTS
Phison: 256GB SSDs could replace HDDs in notebooks in 2015 – 2016
http://www.kitguru.net/components/ssd-drives/anton-shilov/phison-256gb-ssds-could-replace-hdds-in-notebooks-in-2015-2016/

* solid-state drives could replace HDDs in 2015 – 2016 when their price gets right.

FACTS
Transcend: SSD prices set to decline by 20 – 30 per cent this year
http://www.kitguru.net/components/ssd-drives/anton-shilov/transcend-ssd-prices-set-to-decline-by-20-30-per-cent-this-year/

* The market of solid-state drives is probably one of the fastest growing IT markets nowadays and the competition is pretty tough. While the war on the SSD market
will probably oust many companies, including significant ones.


HDD sales is DROPPING:

FACT: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/01/29/western-digital-posts-mixed-results-as-unit-shipments-stagnate/

* Western Digital announced its Q2 FY 2015 earnings on Tuesday, January 27, reporting a 2% year-on-year decline in net revenues to $3.88 billion.
The hard drive manufacturer reported a 3% y-o-y decrease in the number of units shipped, to 61 million during the quarter

* Unit Shipments Witness Limited Growth


FACT: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102368107

* Seagate's revenue misses estimates as PC shipments fall

* Jan 26 (Reuters) - Hard-drive maker Seagate Technology Plc reported quarterly revenue below analysts' estimates, hurt by lower demand for its products.

Posted by bracoli > 2015-03-22 09:35 | Report Abuse

Morning raymond, means jcy will bungkus soon?

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 09:38 | Report Abuse

Just in mind,i don't care how high SSD sales will increase this year or future. As long as the demand for HDD still there, JCY will be no problem & survive.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 09:38 | Report Abuse

Hi Ray: thks again. May I ask a question? Any listed company in Bursa has biz related to SSD? Must as well I invest into this rising industry as early as possible ?

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 09:41 | Report Abuse

DROPPING 3% problem?????

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

Hi Ray: yesterday you quoted Notion. Herewith I would supplement a point that revenue of Notion was rescued by HDD in the latest two qtrs, meaning HDD is still doing fine at least for the moment.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 09:50 | Report Abuse

According WD data Q314' HDD sales DROP from 63.1mil (Q214' ) TO 60.4 mil drop 9.6%. Then RECOVERY back.WHY LAST QUATER DROP 3% BECOME BIG ISSUE HERE????

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 09:57 | Report Abuse

My view is that both sides are talking facts. On one side SSD is rising rapidly and posting great threat to HDD, on the other side HDD is still holding its position well. All boil down to the advancement of technology and timing which no one can predict accurately.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 10:00 | Report Abuse

If data shown drop 30%++++ , i will admit JCY got problem, n JCY MUST need to SHIFT TO OTHER FIELD.

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-03-22 10:28 | Report Abuse

Hi longnian: I would state that I have heavy position on JCY at the moment and certainly I want to see it to rise and bringing me profit. Nevertheless, I always alert myself with any potential threat.

Back to the above discussion, if you won't mind, I would like to hear your view on the negative result of jcy in fy13.

Posted by longnian > 2015-03-22 10:32 | Report Abuse

http://www.storagenewsletter.com/rubriques/financial-results/seagate-fiscal-2q15-financial-results/

Please refer to attach seagate report for Q215' the trend is almost same as WD. why problem??
Seagate & WD total about 80%++ world market for HDD!!!

Posted by Cherrie > 2015-03-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

SSD and HDD has its owm market demand. It cannot not denied SSD is growing rapidly but the usage of HDD has shifted from conventional using in PC to public clouds services for consumers and enterprise by google,microsoft,dropbox and amazon and so on...hundred thousand or even millions of hard disc are placed in just a server room maintained by engineers to provide Cloud services. WD and Seagate has also developed new concept of personal home clouds for individuals where ppl can store their high quality movies/data at home and the data can be accessed from their mobile/tablet outside via data or wireless. The needs for data storage size will increase with the example of coming of higher resolution 4K movie. Not doubt that SSD will continue outperform and trying to grab the market share but if new products with higher storage size with more competitive price will be launched to the market by WD/Seagate, the demand for HDD will always there. So both of them will continue be coexist in the market in near future.

Posted by raymondtang > 2015-03-22 11:00 | Report Abuse

doesnt matter if they have 100% of HDD market, when SSD 3D nand is launched its game over for HDD. All the smart money has already pile into semicon companies which SSD is reliant on. Notice why Unisem and MPI share price keep going up over the last 6 months but JCY gone backwards? The market is not stupid. It knows HDD will not be around for long. .

Notion has 2 recent consecutive quarters of losses ( -7.8m and -15m). Even try to buy a silver mine to move away from HDD.