Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 06:34 | Report Abuse

Hahahaha, be 30 days or 3 month, it just a matter of time. So long, Puncak continue proceed to acquire triplc earning accretive concession business, it still worth of holding :D)

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 06:50 | Report Abuse

Triplc concession business is Build operate transfer under private and public finance initiative. For Puncak to acquire concession business from triplc, it need fed gov approval and bond holder approval as it involve senior medium term note worth (MTN) RM 240m, and junior term note RM 60m that fund triplc first concession construction and these funding is to be repay back by gov funding throughout 20 year concession period.

The approval is also needed from triplc another just newly secure MTN worth RM 630m to fund its another new concession which is still pending construction and involve even longer tenure 25 year concession.

As based on triplc first concession, that worth RM 266m, triplc derive handsome profit during the construction period from q1 2012 to q3 2014, triplc EPS have record attractive and consistent profit range EPS 10 sen to 16 sen every quarter, cumulatively give rise to massive increament in its NTA from RM 1.10 to current level RM 2.56. Its more than double increment in NTA throughout its 3 year construction period, and triplc share price also react in tandem, increase from 70 sen to double up RM 1.40.

It is after completion of its construction period, that triplc profit reduce significantly, as its now only derive fixed payment from fed gov throughout 20 year concession under maintenance period and these fixed fund is going to gradually repay back MTN bond.

However, with triplc secure also new concession RM 599m, worth double than its first concession, and have also secure new MTN RM 630m to fund its construction, a quantum leap in Triplc profit is expected to kick start again, a growth in profit and EPS is expected throughout next 3 year construction period.

With such attractive prospect ahead, triplc can standalone comfortable. But, if Puncak wanna to acquire triplc, it need to offer attractive price.

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-18 07:37 | Report Abuse

Yes...will accumulate more on weakness for the next 3 years "explosive" earnings

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-18 08:00 | Report Abuse

triplc will be fine by itself with steady concession income supporting, but by my estimate, construction earnings are more likely to "explode" in 2H17 or 2018 as revenue recognition in initial quarters may be slower. with this delay, it is really testing the patience of short term investors so expect some of them to exit for now

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 08:57 | Report Abuse

During construction period to kick start RM 266m worth of concession begin in 2012, Triplc record attractive every quarter EPS for consecutive 10 quarter attractive earning begin Q4 2011, ending Q1 2014, cumulative record total EPS = 100sen

5.12sen (Q4 2011)
15.36sen + (Q1 2012)
12.19 sen + (Q2 2012)
13.12 sen + (Q3 2012)
12.69 sen + (Q4 2012)
7.6 sen + (Q1 2013)
9.63sen + (Q2 2013)
10.03 sen + (Q3 2013)
8.90 sen + (Q4 2013)
5.52 sen (ending Q1 2014)

Remark: There is additional construction work on top of concession contract recorded july 2015, resulted additional EPS= 25.5sen.

What will be construction profit for 2x higher concession contract worth RM 599m, to be kick start now and for next 3 year construction period le !!

Posted by TheRock > 2016-11-18 09:03 | Report Abuse

oi @hng33, so fast you reveal all the secret ar?? I have not buy enough leh!!

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-18 09:41 | Report Abuse

bintai kinden just bought a similar concession for RM15m, RM120m contract value, annual payment around RM12m for 22 years. valuer valued it at RM24m-27m.

so based on the same estimate, for RM599m contract, valuation should be around RM120m-RM135m for Z1P3. bintai can buy at a discount but for related party transactions, Triplc cannot sell at a discount, if not it's not fair and reasonable.

based on the same method, Z1P2 RM260m contract should be more than RM50m especially since construction has ended and now it's just collecting cash.

so using comparable method, the 2 contracts combined are worth RM170-RM185m. actual transaction price may vary. pls note that Puncak cannot buy at a discount but Rozali can always get valuer to manipulate a bit on the valuation

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 10:14 | Report Abuse

If 2 contract worth 170m, then, triplc worth at least RM 2.50, (excluding its landbank)

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-18 10:34 | Report Abuse

Accumulate 1.55

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 11:08 | Report Abuse

moving back :D)

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 11:12 | Report Abuse

hahahaha

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 11:14 | Report Abuse

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Posted by winwinaaa > 2016-11-18 11:19 | Report Abuse

hoooo

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-18 11:22 | Report Abuse

Wow!!!! Yes

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 11:26 | Report Abuse

I lock some profit ya.

Posted by rogers123 > 2016-11-18 11:26 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, Selling... Wow wow

Posted by little_snake > 2016-11-18 11:28 | Report Abuse

last time this jibet croc q 50 lot each bid, now it q 100lot each... jibet punya

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2016-11-18 11:33 | Report Abuse

....what happened ? Why nowadays the market so unpredictable ?!

Posted by Follower178 > 2016-11-18 11:43 | Report Abuse

sell sell sell xD

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-18 12:30 | Report Abuse

it was oversold previously, but never thought it would rebound the day after extension was announced. syndicates really play gao gao

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-18 12:36 | Report Abuse

the shares available is low, so price is volatile, perfect for traders. but I'm not good in reading charts, so I try not to trade, just buy at reasonable price and hold. again use your own strategy and discretion

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-18 12:40 | Report Abuse

In stock market, many strategy can use and applicable so long can reap profit, 八仙过海，各显神通 :D)

Posted by Follower178 > 2016-11-18 12:58 | Report Abuse

jay and hng33 look like very pro , is that true? haha

Posted by bracoli > 2016-11-18 13:27 | Report Abuse

hng y punck doesnt follow this uptrend? sob sob

Posted by rogers123 > 2016-11-18 14:05 | Report Abuse

Triplc, can see the price, can buy but cant sell it. Hahaha

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-21 19:46 | Report Abuse

Share price gradually recovering back :)

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-21 19:49 | Report Abuse

Good news announced but people also wanted to sell below 1.6. No logic. Congrat to those at bought at lower price last week.

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-22 09:09 | Report Abuse

Yesssssss!!!!!! Go...go.....go!!!!!!

Posted by TheRock > 2016-11-22 09:11 | Report Abuse

yeh!! i can buy new underwear now!!!

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-22 09:13 | Report Abuse

Sold Triplc @ 1.80 for contra profit

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:06 | Report Abuse

So fast exit....good luck to you for next counter.

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:12 | Report Abuse

I was worried of Teaching and Hospital concession contract might be delayed or set a side as government had tighten the belt. Everything is cleared until last week as they are going to start the construction. Don't really care whether Puncak want to take over or not.

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-22 10:18 | Report Abuse

My preference is call off the deal

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:28 | Report Abuse

When the contract worth RM 600 million construction start, first year revenue RM 100 million, 2nd year RM 200 million 3rd year RM 300 million...Share price rockets to the moon.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:29 | Report Abuse

hahahha, keep going UPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:31 | Report Abuse

During construction period to kick start RM 266m worth of concession begin in 2012, Triplc record attractive every quarter EPS for consecutive 10 quarter attractive earning begin Q4 2011, ending Q1 2014, cumulative record total EPS = 100sen

5.12sen (Q4 2011)
15.36sen + (Q1 2012)
12.19 sen + (Q2 2012)
13.12 sen + (Q3 2012)
12.69 sen + (Q4 2012)
7.6 sen + (Q1 2013)
9.63sen + (Q2 2013)
10.03 sen + (Q3 2013)
8.90 sen + (Q4 2013)
5.52 sen (ending Q1 2014)

Remark: There is additional construction work on top of concession contract recorded july 2015, resulted additional EPS= 25.5sen.

What will be construction profit for 2x higher concession contract worth RM 599m, to be kick start now and for next 3 year construction period le !!

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:32 | Report Abuse

Once progress billing kick start, just based on triplc quarterly EPS, it will boosting triplc share price significantly

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:34 | Report Abuse

hahaha, another BACKFIRE to clown roger123 lolllll <----- pity

rogers123 Triplc, can see the price, can buy but cant sell it. Hahaha
18/11/2016 14:05

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:36 | Report Abuse

hng33..so....Forget about Puncak acquisition....Puncak need (revenue and profit) is much much more than Trplc...wakaka

Posted by little_snake > 2016-11-22 10:37 | Report Abuse

this roger has removed his rubbish comment... laugh die me

Posted by Jay > 2016-11-22 10:49 | Report Abuse

wow is there some news that we are not aware of?

Posted by moneycashrich > 2016-11-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

can sell today......but then anybody interested to sell now ?

Posted by Ckk2266 > 2016-11-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

Insiders start buying?

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

Up_down

Triplc can standalone, but, if Puncak wanna to acquire, it must pat attractive premium

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:53 | Report Abuse

Is it investors attention diverted from potential Puncak taking over to deal calling off?

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2016-11-22 10:54 | Report Abuse

If not acquisition by puncak.... It wouldn't be attractive to me.

Posted by moneycashrich > 2016-11-22 10:56 | Report Abuse

the price to me is undervalued. No matter if Puncak take over not or now. Must sell at higher price. Do not regret later.

Posted by hng33 > 2016-11-22 10:57 | Report Abuse

hahahhaha, anytime move back above RM 2.00

Posted by moneycashrich > 2016-11-22 10:58 | Report Abuse

Target for today is RM2.00 and maybe limit up.....haha.

Posted by Up_down > 2016-11-22 10:58 | Report Abuse

Hng33. I think the delay is due to Hospital concession contract. If Puncak get the deal now, Rozali cannot maximize his value of shares in Triplc as certain discount included in valuation of the contract before the project kick off.