Higher revenue from the Malaysia and Indonesia retailing operations coupled with improved operational efficiencies had enabled the Group to register an operating profit of RM8 million in the current quarter.
Included in the loss before tax in the current quarter were impairment losses on property, plant and equipment, intangible assets and others totalling RM92 million.
My simple calculation is the given NTA minus any doubtful assets. Currently it is safe to assume RM1.40 thereabouts is a good current TP after current Quarter 4 (Q4) 2017 unaudited report. Proper valuation must be based on years of financial info and a best guess business outlook. Parkson8888, I cant give out all of my data but I will share as much facts as I can regarding Parkson.
Parkson for the past 3 years in particular has used fast depreciation accounting and always write off doubtful assets. I believe their accounting practice is rather transparent. Meaning if they spend lots of money for new stores, they deduct a lot of cost in the 1st year itself rather than spread the cost over many years. So, you get losses.
Note when Parkson sold off its China unit Beijing Huadesheng Property Management and a relevant shareholders’ loan, the PROFIT & LOSS (P&L) will show say RM300mil profit. THAT is the hidden value is Parkson's assets. Meaning RM300mil was not previously shown as NTA because NTA usually use old asset valuation.
Best part is when IBs used recent P&L to base their target price, they dont calculate the asset above which was sold at a profit of RM300 but incoming cash of RM1bil + the profit RM300mil that went in Parkson's balance sheet/bank.
Parkson8888, share price is not equal to company value. Share price equals investor sentiment. Actual value can be calculated by investors via balance sheet. To calculate, take whatever asset you have valued the best you can net liabilities DIVIDE total outstanding shares. To answer you Q, its other assets are worth RM0.993 above the cash value you provided assuming your calculation was right.
My associate recently wrote to Parkson. All Investment Bankers reading this, I recommend you to propose to Parkson to refinance their 2018 bonds at lower rates preferably in UK at lower rates. And to use current cash hoard in Parkson's banks to acquire a profitable business like Oldtown and help them grow faster in a tricky market like China. If you can get the above ideas done with proper paper works, I hope Parkson pays you adequately and implement such strategies. It is noted they already have many strategies in place.
JuniorR the way you write means the IB mentioned is Kenanga? So they behind Parkson short? They give buy call TP 88 sen so selling at 53-54 sen also them?
No wonder Kenanga keep dropping and Deutsch Bank sold non-stop.
It appears that their transformation isn't happening fast enough and the business in China is suffering from bad to worst. If need be, Parkson has to make the tough decision to downsize their business in China rather than keep expanding and losing to online retail business especially to Alibaba. They are fighting an unwinnable war and causing casualties to itself. Time to admit defeat and move on. Focus on their strength rather than commiting suicide. guess WC still have a big ego and refuse to admit defeat in China
AdCool, what makes you say that their China business is going from bad to worse? Have you seen Q1 and Q2 2017 financial statements? It's quite clear that they have managed some turnaround to return to neutral levels. Still a far cry from the glory days, but it's definitely not from "bad to worse" as you put it.
What is getting from bad to worse is their SEA operations, especially in SEA ex-Malaysia.
He said 'from bad to worst' . You said' from bad to good'. Let me tell He You She '怕胜大剪价,又来了。' ayah, duit tak cukup, Saba Saba jangan bimbang, cepat cari 那急 atuk 26 billion mesti cukup, faham!
Everyday''s low could be next day''s high ......killing softly, dying slowly....... bottomless abyss till profit''s shown in PHB. Current ideal range between 0.40 - 0.50!
Back 12M17 core LATAMI which came in at RM179.2m compared to the core loss of RM152.6m in 12M16 is below expectations compared to our RM46m and consensus RM151m estimates. However, we believe the worst is over for Parkson and expect its FY18 to start on a clean slate following a kitchen sinking exercise and swift improvement in China’s operations. Specifically, this quarter marks the 2nd successive quarter of improvement in operating profit in China, highlighting that efforts including closures of underperforming stores and rationalization measure have reduced same-store’s operating expenses and bearing fruit. Maintain OUTPERFORM. Our target price is RM0.88 based on sum-of-parts.
Result Highlights. QoQ, 4Q17 revenue fell 8%, no thanks to Vietnam (- 14%). However, key markets registered positive same-store-sales growth including China (+2.4% vs. -2.2% in 1Q17), Malaysia (+14% vs -1.4% in 1Q17) and Indonesia (+11% vs. -18.2% in 1Q17). Malaysia and Indonesia same-store sales growth benefitted from Hari Raya festivities following the shift in festive calendar. The weakness in Vietnam continued due to competitive pressure. More importantly, 4Q17 China operations continued to show improvement registering second quarterly consecutive improvement due to positive SSSG growth, closures of underperforming stores and rationalization measure, which had reduced same store’s operating expenses. Specifically, 53%-owned Parkson China’s (FYE Dec) 1H17 recorded a core net profit RMB18,1m (RM11m). Excluding impairment loss on PPE, intangible assets, and other receivables amounting to an expected aggregate of RM70m, 4Q17 core net loss is flat at RM26.0m compared to a loss of RM25.8m in 3Q17 (excluding one-off impairment losses on receivables amounting to RM7.5m and stripping out gains from disposal of a subsidiary at approximately RM330m) arising from elimination of loss-making stores’ closures and lower operating expenses. No dividend was declared in this quarter as expected. No dividend was declared in this quarter as expected.
YTD, 12M17 revenue rose 2% mitigated by narrowing negative SSSG in China (-1% vs -10% in 12M16) due to its transformational strategies undertaken, which are bearing fruits, including aligning with the evolving retail markets and closures of underperforming stores. This brings 12MFY17 China operating loss has narrowed considerably to RM42m from RM91m in 12MFY16. SSSG rates were mixed across the board, including Malaysia (+3% vs -6.5% in 12M16), Vietnam (-14% vs. -2.9% in 12M16) and Indonesia (-2% vs. +4.7% in 12M16). However, Parkson 12M17 core losses widened slightly to RM179m after stripping out: (i) gain from disposal of a subsidiary, and (ii) impairment loss on intangible assets and receivables (RM352.4), and (ii) impairment loss on receivables amounting to RM60-70m (Parkson Holdings’ effective stakes).
Outlook. The Group focuses on delivering its transformational strategies closely aligning with the evolving retail markets, which include: (i) enriching its retail format and expanding its product and services offerings, (ii) optimising store effectiveness and efficiency, and (iii) enhancing cross platform experience for its customers. Specifically, the first Parkson Newcore Citymall was officially opened in January 2016 in Shanghai, which offers value-for-money products in a vibrant, energetic and innovative shopping environment. Sales of this Korean-themed outlet increased visibly in 2016 compared to the year before. In South-East Asia, operating environments in the Southeast Asian region are anticipated to remain challenging due to the fragile consumer sentiment. The Group will exercise vigilance in pursuing its strategies to transform Parkson into a life-style concept retail business.
Maintain Outperform and target price at RM0.88. We like Parkson because: (i) its strategy of optimising its retail format and expanding its product and services offerings is paying off, (ii) it is minimising stores losses via optimising store effectiveness and efficiency, which are bearing fruits, and (iii) 2Q17 China operating profit is showing encouraging signs of improvement
If some "sifus" say Parkson is so bad, got no future or make losses for the past 3Q out of 4, how come its cash can go up from RM1,904,651,000 to now RM3,142,234,000 and the stock is still worth so little now?
Simple. Investor sentiment, mostly sentiment of retail/small time investors. Institutional/big investors usually can only invest when a there is accounting profits/dividends/etc. By the time this happen it'll be too late for retail investors to accumulate cause larger volume will cause the price to increase fast.
JuniorR I have question on why Affin QR still not out until last 2 days. Only Affin very bearish on Parkson not Kenanga or Public Bank. Is it they sold Parkson at 51-51.5 sen? How much Affin lose money in Parkson selling at very low price? Stock trading is not win-win. For your sale someone else is buying.
Time to buy is now. Price now is very cheap. The shares are worth RM1.40 minimum in my opinion. That is the value of Parkson's Total Assets-Total Liabilities-Intangible Assets=RM1.40 thereabouts.
Plus, how would you value Parkson say if they usw their cash pile and Bought a company like Oldtown and report higher cash flow and possibly profits?
If u mean there has not been any bonus or stock price adjustment post bonus you definitely are NOT a Parkson shareholder. Possibly a short seller or 3rd party promoter. If you go to Bursa main page for Parkson there has been FIVE (5) bonus issues since 2014.
ttb is Tan Teng Boo? As far as I know, He has not lost any money in Parkson as he has not sold any of it. And I believe his fund has still over performed Bursa to date with lots of cash in hand though I'm not a shareholder of Icap.
Its hard to say Parkson8888. In U.S. is easier I heard to get information on who is buying and selling. There are some companies that specialise in informing investors on big buyers/sellers of stock. What I can say is everyone/every report writer has their own agenda.
The good thing is If you check since 2014, all bearish reports have actually helped Parkson to buy back shares and distribute bonus shares to patient investors at very low cost. Contrastingly, it would have also benefitted short sellers and share trading bank operations and other factors.
I will off hand mention interestingly as of 2016 Annual Report, Tabung Haji is a substantial shareholder of Parkson at 103,763,219 shares making up 9.6% of Parkson shares.
asset valuation is only an accounting number, do u think they can fetch such as number when the assets go onto the market???
secondly, the only theme that parkson can play on now is either a privatization or takeover theme. otherwise, there is no hope for a turnaround since it is badly mauled in china by wechat/alibaba/taobao.
do u even know what is a bonus issue??? what parkson gave is a dividend-in-specie and for a shareholder, it is not a very attractive way of being rewarded unless the company is a growing one.
r u joking that ttb has not lost money on parkson?????
his investment on parkson is now basically a write-off with almost 60% or more paper loss after 10 yrs. so what is the difference????
chief joker ttb holding cash since 2010 means he has been missing at least 1 upcycle. what is the use of him outperforming the klci since icap's price is at a discount to its nav????
Bonus issue was done using PHB money and bought back shares aggressively during 2014 - 2016. However, that did not stop the counter price from declining. Imagine a company which use the company cash flow to buy back shares and hoping it would stop the price declined but it didn't.
In general, there were no value created to shareholders at all by buying back the shares. It only creates values if the shares buy back price is lower than the current trading price. The strategy of the shares buyback has failed miserably and serve as a double edge sword. Less cash flow, less NTA and bring no values to shareholders. It only bring value to whoever want to sell their holding back to PHB and reduce their stakes in PHB when there was no apparent buyers.
Share buy back only add values when the company is growing and the company bought back the shares to either cancel them as treasury share or reward the shareholders by giving a bonus share. Meaning if the company bought it in average RM1.50 and the current share is trading at RM2, it creates values for the shareholders. But for PHB case, they bought it at RM1.50, and the share was trading at RM1.
RM1.40 is my TP as it can be viewed as Parkson's liquidation value. Its real so called asset valuation; Parkson Bhd's NAV = Net Asset Value = All assets minus(tolak) all liabilities = RM2.34.
A going concern/onto-the-market valuation of Parkson should be much higher than my TP. Simple, find me a company that is selling for (market capitalisation) RM581mil now that sells RM12bil of merchandise with net assets RM9.4bil (2016 consolidated financial position) with 69% business in China with a founder that has numerous friends and connections.
RM1bil plus of cash net 2018 bonds can buy numerous business today. Why should we sell out our company when we can acquire other businesses.
Thank you for pointing that out. It is very attractive when you are getting free shares in a company that is worth a whole lot more so I loved the share dividend personally as I didnt have to buy too many shares when the price dropped. Plus Parkson was buying their own shares that had a gross margin of 16% plus I believe, with cash that earns probably 3% in Malaysia and whatever the rate is in Hong Kong.In share buy backs, as long as you purchase something that gets a higher return than cash it is considered postive.
Yup. TTB has not lost any money as of yet. Paper loss means you lost money on paper and not in reality. You only lose money in reality when you sell a stock. This is as stocks/shares are part ownership of a business so if the business turnsaround/privatised/prospers so does the sentiment of stock/shares buyers. Well, on the part why is he holding so much cash, I am probably with you on that one but we could be wrong.
I'm not recommending anyone to buy anything but merely pointing out Parkson currently is very cheap due to constant negative sentiment. This is as lower price means more shares to buy for people like me. Once investors become slightly more optimistic, this train should move pretty fast upwards.
PHB share price low remains a bottomless abyss. Whether PRG still generates profit or with high asset value will not change PHB current price direction as that's already proven in last few Q results. More over PRG is in downtrend again and PRA is drifting lower historically. PHB is in net asset position but not net cash if its' debts are taken in consideration totally.Hence when PHB can start to generate good profit consistently will reverse the current price trend into positive territory - light at the end of tunnel!
Bear in mind that PHB is not a property stock hence asset value never comes into play. It's merely a trading cimpany which is driven by current earning pertinent to trading sector.
I'm perplexed by the continuing negative comments from Joetay and Ks55 on Parkson. I believe they do not even owned 1 lot of Parkson's shares yet they seem so concern about developments on this stock. It's better they show us their track record and tell us which stock they have put their money in so that we can see how good they are. Or else it would seem like they are sour grape or the prophet of doom in trying their best to run this stock to the ground without having any position. It gives the impression they have a saw to grind from their past and/or association with WC's companies where they probably lost their pants when trading the Lion group of stocks at ridiculously high prices. I feel sorry for these two guys who spend all their time to shit this stock as it would bring no benefit to them whether Parkson's share price goes up or down. I hope they can move on and concentrate on their own stocks for the benefit of i3 visitors. I find their comments like a broken record repeating itself again and again. So sad to see them in this state of affairs.
You are absolutely right,kelvin 61...in fact these two names you mentioned is the same person...everyone knows what he is up to! He shuts off when the tides goes agains him!!
i alrdy told u i own no lion-related stocks, not now or in the past when parkson was rm10/share in 2008.
as to give u a feel of my portfolio, i bot elsoft when it was ard 1.30 just after the recent bonus issue.
so how do u think my portfolio is doing???
as for u, i understand u bot parkson at 75c or above, maybe even when it was rm10. so most likely u r having a 30% loss thus far if u bot at 75c within the past yr.
and to date, u have not been able to answer me whether u want to buy my call option of 60c since last month when parkson was 55c.
if u r confident, u would have taken up my bet.
and like a loser who cannot accept the fact that he has lost, u dont have the guts to back up what u said.
Let me make it crystal clear to you, Joetay and ks55. You are not in my league. You are a small fry in the market place but talk like a guy with deep pockets. Don't kid yourself and this portal of how savvy you are. From the way you analyse and make your arguments, it reflects your shallow understanding of the businesses your're commenting including interpreting the quarterly reports. You are nothing but an irritant who go about giving your silly comments on Parkson, Hengyuan, Lionind, etc. as if you have deep knowledge of the business. But in reality, you're nothing but a small timer that has probably been losing in the market, hence your anger with all these companies. I hope you find peace and move on.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
curious2
1,812 posts
Posted by curious2 > 2017-08-25 20:56 | Report Abuse
the Group is confident that the upcoming expansion, along with the addition of new offerings will bode well for the Group.