Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-16 01:14 | Report Abuse

Last year same quarter EPS is almost zero, so that’s easy to beat. Beside price, there’s volume that is not transparent. Scrap metal price increased by quite a bit and is trading in USD if i’m Not mistaken.

It’s really hard to say where it’ll go from here. Last quarter it built up its inventory, I wonder if it was meant to boost Q2’s performance. Also, share price is reflective of future prospects, less about what happened in the past quarter but not entirely independent.

In the end, whoever throws in sufficient money controls the price. Let’s hope it continues to move up steadily.

Posted by erkongseng > 2018-08-16 07:22 | Report Abuse

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-927.html
螺纹鋼4375RMB/噸，大马長鋼产品在进囗征18%保护稅下，外面进口货早己无利可图，经之前的回调，现買入長鋼股是良机。

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 11:49 | Report Abuse

warn3r …… appreciate you provide scrap iron price info here 2017 and 2018 ….. need to work computation on this …… thanks.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 12:36 | Report Abuse

I don't have much details on scrap iron price. Just agak agak.

Jul 2017 scrap iron price is USD 280 per ton + processing fee to billets USD 90 = USD 370 per ton
Early of 2018 think scrap iron price is USD 350 per ton + processing fee to billets USD 90 = USD 440 per ton
Current price of scrap iron price is USD 310 per ton + processing fee to billets USD 90 USD 400 per ton

Jan to Mar 2018 report USD440 x 3.93 = RM1,729.20 let's say RM 1,684 since scrap iron price might around USD 330-350
Apr to Jun 2018 USD400 x 3.97 = RM 1,584.00

So scrap iron + processing cost to billet price is reduced by RM100.00 for this qtr.

Ssteel produce higher quality product of wire rod and steel bar, so in market this may fetch better price.

Jan - Mar 2018 average selling price 2,580
Apr to Jun 2018 average selling price 2,480 (maybe market price is around 2,380+-)

Average selling price is dropped by RM100 / ton offset against RM100 / ton dropped in scrap iron price.

Not sure this is ok or not, just agak agak. Anyway, margin is still there. Even 5% cannot be obtained, at least 3.5%-4% still have provided no other NCF expenses.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 12:38 | Report Abuse

Graphite Electrode price is also diminishing, if free, will show you the China price, all agak agak.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 12:45 | Report Abuse

Regarding you said why this qtr easy to beat last year qtr, this mainly due to average selling price in market.

Apr-Jun 2017 ASP (not remember) maybe around 1900-200
Jan-Mar 2018 ASP 2500-2650 (price depend on quality and density)
Apr-Jun 2018 ASP 2350-2480 (price depend on quality and density)

To me, when ASP dropped to 2000 and below, this might only just to cover COS.
If above 2200, should have profit around 3-5%.
If above 2500, should have profit 4%-6%.

Posted by erkongseng > 2018-08-16 12:57 | Report Abuse

thanks

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 13:55 | Report Abuse

Hari haji is next wednesday ... report think most likely out on next Tuesday evening .... Thursday think will have gap up ..... 2.20 should not be a problem .... buying this company is not because this qtr is because steel selling price now at high side till next year CNY and ssteel production at max side.

Before price push up to 2.00, better buy now. People may misinterpret .... given chance u to buy more.

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-16 16:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Windcloud, Miti weekly report has the scrap price. And I’d like to apologize here for sharing wrong info previously. I looked back and found that the scrap price peaked in Q1 2018 at around 380-410 USD. In Q2 it dropped to USD 340-370. It climbed back to USD 370-385 in July/Aug.

So the big unknown now is the volume...bringing this up again, ssteel previous QR recorded a significant increase in inventory. I hope it’s because they secured a big order where shipment/delivery took place in Q2.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-16 17:02 | Report Abuse

warn3r, it is ok, no worry. Can I have the link of MITI weekly website for scrap price ? Appreciate you can provide the weekly report scrap price link.

https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Ferrous/Steel-Scrap#tabIndex=0
This is London Metal Exchange website, current market price for scrap steel is USD 303 per ton, not USD 370-385. The above computation I used LME/Singapore scrap iron price to work out, but since I not subscribed, so just agak agak. Another website actually want to refer is CIDB site, but dunno how come cannot access.

Anyway I need to tell you is the increase/decrease in scraps and selling price of steel products is co-related, so if scrap price increase, selling price increase and vice versa. Even not 100%, also got 90%.

One more thing need to show you is Graphite Electrodes price is decreasing. And wanna to tell you don't listen whatever people said, figures do tell you drop or increase.

Anyway, good to have discussion since I am not the person so keen to study, agak agak curi makan. Anyway previous large inventory balance is to mean also have good sales quarter this month, I trust the company has their pricing and purchasing strategy and this mean they will price in the scrap price up/down, even not to the fullest

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-16 18:14 | Report Abuse

Hi Windcloud, there you go.
http://www.miti.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/3060?mid=73

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-17 00:20 | Report Abuse

Warn3r thanks for link. Very good weekly report that summarized lot of things.

I think u holding this counter right. Wish u all the best. Fruitful day will come next week and to award all the holders here.

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-17 07:39 | Report Abuse

yes I’ve been holding for over 1-2 years. What a ride.

Posted by Jack888 > 2018-08-17 09:25 | Report Abuse

coming...uptrend !

Posted by stella90 > 2018-08-17 09:32 | Report Abuse

1.90 now~

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-17 12:30 | Report Abuse

today top up some.

The result is near the corner, don't wait until announcement only chase the price. Below 2.00 still a good bargain price. Historical highest price is 2.58, if TP is 2.50, at this current price of 1.88, u still have more than 30% gain. 1.88 is not at high side that will hit you down …… for this couple years, 1.80.- 1.90 quite the average buy price for most of the buyers. Johor have several high rise projects from China developers and local developers to support the demand of steel bar and wire rod which fetch a better price.

Buy first before it surge.

Posted by ming > 2018-08-17 15:42 | Report Abuse

it is hard to collect ssteel ticket in big quantity.. guess he no dare come in..

Posted by s3eve > 2018-08-17 15:48 | Report Abuse

I dont agree... Q4 is going to have big upsides based on the last message from ss steel...

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-08-17 15:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-17 16:34 | Report Abuse

Lionind got impairment for this coming qtr, but my working on this impairment not sure is correct or not, it may turn out results not as you expected ….

Ssteel result think will perform better …..

Anyway it depend since end qtr result, difficult to estimate … but at current price, I will bet Ssteel since already gained from Lionind

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-20 13:11 | Report Abuse

Ironrobe, what does that have to do with long steel company?

Posted by s3eve > 2018-08-20 17:30 | Report Abuse

Its a good collection time to benefit in the next few week.. Dont agree with Ironrobe

Posted by nicky11 > 2018-08-20 18:44 | Report Abuse

Cscsteel have no related with long steel company la. If u insist want to compare, then how to about choobee ? So how to compare?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-08-20 18:50 | Report Abuse

CSCSTEEL IS OK LAH

REVENUE IS UP!!

ONLY HIGH COST EATS INTO ITS PROFITS

SHOULD DO VERY WELL NOW THAT GST IS REMOVED PLUS CSCSTEEL IS PURE SUPPLIER FOR CAR MANUFACTURING AND ALSO SELL TO ASTINO & OTHERS

WITH HUGE JUMP OF CAR MANUFACTURING IN TG MALIM CSCSTEEL WILL TURN INTO A FLAT STEEL SUPERSTOCK!!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-08-20 18:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by ironrobe3388 > Aug 20, 2018 10:35 AM | Report Abuse

CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BHD's earning dropped by 28 % year on year for the latest quarterly report.

Posted by calvintaneng > Aug 20, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse X

CSCSTEEL IS OK LAH

REVENUE IS UP!!

ONLY HIGH COST EATS INTO ITS PROFITS

SHOULD DO VERY WELL NOW THAT GST IS REMOVED PLUS CSCSTEEL IS PURE SUPPLIER FOR CAR MANUFACTURING AND ALSO SELL TO ASTINO & OTHERS

WITH HUGE JUMP OF CAR MANUFACTURING IN TG MALIM CSCSTEEL WILL TURN INTO A FLAT STEEL SUPERSTOCK!!!

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-21 11:54 | Report Abuse

Buy on weakness

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-21 14:17 | Report Abuse

Keep sliding now. Sigh.

Posted by s3eve > 2018-08-21 15:08 | Report Abuse

Im buying.. Are they releasing the result on Friday? :)

Posted by goodluck999 > 2018-08-21 15:18 | Report Abuse

this one no choice..my paper profit very very thin. i will keep holding it until result is released..

Posted by goodluck999 > 2018-08-21 15:18 | Report Abuse

i dont think ssteel is merely given a value at such a low price.. it should be above 3.00

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-21 15:28 | Report Abuse

s3eve, you have my respect.

Although I also know that railways do not use rebar, I still couldn’t get myself to sapu at this juncture.

Based on past dates, it could be tonight or Thursday night:
20 Aug 2015 (Thur)
22 Aug 2016 (Mon)
24 Aug 2017 (Thu)

Posted by Mytrd > 2018-08-21 15:32 | Report Abuse

last flush before up

Posted by Mytrd > 2018-08-21 15:32 | Report Abuse

its a good price to topup

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-21 18:09 | Report Abuse

dunno result will out today or after Haji …..

850,000 x 3% is 25,500
850,000 x 4.5% is 38,250

Maybe in between ….. as long better than last year then goo liao ….. haha

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-22 07:44 | Report Abuse

Well. We already know Q4 last financial year, EPS was 1.3 cents. It’s not going to be lower than that.

And the first 3 quarters this financial year already did around double of last financial full year.

It’s mostly sentiment now.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-22 21:24 | Report Abuse

Yup bad sentiment ... i also affected .... sad sad .... ssteel macam no support .... trade volume too thin ...

But hopefully tomorrow
1. Bursa index will inch higher and FF start buy back shares
2. After one day holiday .... people has clear mind and start to buy back steel counters since the cancellation of ECR not much affect on steel counters as the project may affect Alliance Steel company and certain company not supplied this cast iron
3. Steel selling price is still at high side

Ssteel as long result still within expectation and following results even can perform better .... wish share price to move towards 2.00 soon ..

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-23 09:46 | Report Abuse

Last call for Ssteel …. a real run will start tomorrow …. tomorrow will start from 2.00

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-23 10:00 | Report Abuse

below 1.80 still a good buy …….

For TA, 1.67 the lowest support that day is the support, it has tested 3 times to test the support between 1.60-1.68 level. If the support can hold well, and provided selling price of steel product is good and property/infra construction activities to support, price is should directional up.

For import tariff ended on 2020, I don't think it might end so soon, this may renew for another 3-5 years since Gvt having profit from tax from 2 portion - one from Steel company profit tax - Company tax 24% and import tariff on China steel products, so govt earn both side.

So, accumulate before it rise continuously.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-23 10:03 | Report Abuse

* it has tested 3 times the support during last couple weeks ….

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-23 10:17 | Report Abuse

very bored this counter ….. no buying volume ….. sendiri syok …. haha

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-23 16:21 | Report Abuse

Went from 1.75 back to 1.70.... what’s wrong?

Posted by Mytrd > 2018-08-23 16:23 | Report Abuse

On collection, dun worry

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-23 16:27 | Report Abuse

It’s so dry, really is collection ke?

Posted by Mytrd > 2018-08-23 16:43 | Report Abuse

Coz of Low volume , easy to sequeeze

Posted by goodluck999 > 2018-08-24 09:53 | Report Abuse

initiating the formation of higher bottom

Posted by Warn3r > 2018-08-24 10:28 | Report Abuse

Hi guys. Does anyone know how much scrap metal and electrode (does it need coke?) to produce 1 MT of steel using EAF? Thanks.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 11:05 | Report Abuse

I also not yet found out .... Interest to know as well …..

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-08-24 11:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:07 | Report Abuse

Graphite Electrodes

(A) Introduction
The electric arc furnace method recycles used iron scrap by melting it in an electric arc furnace. It is the graphite electrodes inside the furnace that actually melt the iron. Graphite has high thermal conductivity and is very resistant to heat and impact. It also has low electrical resistance, which means it can conduct the large electrical currents needed to melt iron.

(B) Cost
There are 3 different type of graphite electrodes (UHP, HP and NP).

For case study, I will use HP (high performance/high power) graphite electrode to study the cost % for steel making. 1MT of steel making requires about 0.3-0.4% or 3-4kg of graphite electrodes.

HP graphite electrode cost:
At beginning of year 2018, it from about RMB79,000/MT rose to about RMB 119,000MT for Jan-Feb 2018 and then dropped to about RMB 69,000 during Apr-Jun 2018. So for this coming qtr the graphite electrodes cost is reduced as what I said in earlier post.
http://www.chinaccm.com/27/20180508/272102_4871802.shtml

I will use diameter about 400mm to 600mm for the case study.

So the cost of HP graphite electrodes is RMB 69,000/MT x 0.62 = MYR 42,780/MT for Apr to Jun 2018.

Assumes revenue for this coming qtr is about 850,000,000 and the average selling price is about MYR 2,400/MT, then the sales volume will be 354,000 MT or 354,000,000 kg.

I had used previous year corresponding qtr result to compare and this had come a conclusion that when selling price is about 1,900-2000/MT then this is only to cover about the cost of sales. So assume the COS point at 1,950/MT. So cost of sales will be around 354,000 MT x 1,950 = 690,300,000.

So what is the cost % of graphite electrodes used ?

354,000 MT requires 1,062 MT graphite electrodes (354,000 x 0.3%). The cost in graphite electrodes is 1,062MT x MYR 42,780 = 45,432,360

The % of graphite electrodes is 45,432,360 / 690,300,000 = 6.6%.

(3) Is this correlation of graphite electrodes cost versus ASP of steel products

In conclusion:
ASP: MYR 1,950 - 2,250
Graphite electrode cost % is about 2-3.5%

ASP: MYR 2,250 - 2,450
Graphite electrode cost % is about 5.5-7.5%

ASP: MYR 2,450 - 2,650
Graphite electrode cost % is about 9.5-11.5%

(4) Graphite electrodes cost trend

At current state, graphite cost will be around this level, but may inch higher towards year end or beginning of next year and this is in correlation to ASP of steel products.

WHAT I NEED TO SAY IS AS LONG ASP IS ABOUT 2,250 ABOVE THEN THERE IS A PROFIT WHEN SELLING PRICE IS ABOUT 2,550 AND ABOVE, THEN DAMN GOOD PROFIT FOR STEEL COMPANIES. BESIDES GRAPHITE ELECTRODES COST HAD BEEN REDUCED ABOUT 40% COMPARED TO 1ST QTR.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:17 | Report Abuse

For this coming qtr …. compared to previous qtr

ASP: dropped by 5-8%
Cost of graphite: dropped by 35-40%
Scrap iron: dropped by 10-12%

So the bottomline …. will still be a good profit ….. hopefully not wrong …….