Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-08-24 11:07 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:07 | Report Abuse

Graphite Electrodes

(A) Introduction
The electric arc furnace method recycles used iron scrap by melting it in an electric arc furnace. It is the graphite electrodes inside the furnace that actually melt the iron. Graphite has high thermal conductivity and is very resistant to heat and impact. It also has low electrical resistance, which means it can conduct the large electrical currents needed to melt iron.

(B) Cost
There are 3 different type of graphite electrodes (UHP, HP and NP).

For case study, I will use HP (high performance/high power) graphite electrode to study the cost % for steel making. 1MT of steel making requires about 0.3-0.4% or 3-4kg of graphite electrodes.

HP graphite electrode cost:
At beginning of year 2018, it from about RMB79,000/MT rose to about RMB 119,000MT for Jan-Feb 2018 and then dropped to about RMB 69,000 during Apr-Jun 2018. So for this coming qtr the graphite electrodes cost is reduced as what I said in earlier post.
http://www.chinaccm.com/27/20180508/272102_4871802.shtml

I will use diameter about 400mm to 600mm for the case study.

So the cost of HP graphite electrodes is RMB 69,000/MT x 0.62 = MYR 42,780/MT for Apr to Jun 2018.

Assumes revenue for this coming qtr is about 850,000,000 and the average selling price is about MYR 2,400/MT, then the sales volume will be 354,000 MT or 354,000,000 kg.

I had used previous year corresponding qtr result to compare and this had come a conclusion that when selling price is about 1,900-2000/MT then this is only to cover about the cost of sales. So assume the COS point at 1,950/MT. So cost of sales will be around 354,000 MT x 1,950 = 690,300,000.

So what is the cost % of graphite electrodes used ?

354,000 MT requires 1,062 MT graphite electrodes (354,000 x 0.3%). The cost in graphite electrodes is 1,062MT x MYR 42,780 = 45,432,360

The % of graphite electrodes is 45,432,360 / 690,300,000 = 6.6%.

(3) Is this correlation of graphite electrodes cost versus ASP of steel products

In conclusion:
ASP: MYR 1,950 - 2,250
Graphite electrode cost % is about 2-3.5%

ASP: MYR 2,250 - 2,450
Graphite electrode cost % is about 5.5-7.5%

ASP: MYR 2,450 - 2,650
Graphite electrode cost % is about 9.5-11.5%

(4) Graphite electrodes cost trend

At current state, graphite cost will be around this level, but may inch higher towards year end or beginning of next year and this is in correlation to ASP of steel products.

WHAT I NEED TO SAY IS AS LONG ASP IS ABOUT 2,250 ABOVE THEN THERE IS A PROFIT WHEN SELLING PRICE IS ABOUT 2,550 AND ABOVE, THEN DAMN GOOD PROFIT FOR STEEL COMPANIES. BESIDES GRAPHITE ELECTRODES COST HAD BEEN REDUCED ABOUT 40% COMPARED TO 1ST QTR.

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:17 | Report Abuse

For this coming qtr …. compared to previous qtr

ASP: dropped by 5-8%
Cost of graphite: dropped by 35-40%
Scrap iron: dropped by 10-12%

So the bottomline …. will still be a good profit ….. hopefully not wrong …….

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:32 | Report Abuse

4 steel companies if need to compare (please note that I will use PE ratio of 5 as this is to cater for 2020 the import tariff for China imported steel products to be removed and the mega project may start from 2020/2021 which may require imported steel products):

1) Ssteel: TP is about 2.50-3.00 with stable profit provided ASP is at high side.
2) Lionind: dragged by Parkson result ... hopefully not till 2020 …. but there is a potential ….
3) Masteel: current share price close to fair value price using PE ratio of 5, to me not attractive.
4) Annjoo: No comment.

So, please add into your watchlist for Ssteel. haha, just nonsense sharing since my personal view is bias.

So any dip on share price, quickly go to buy …… but at your own risk ….

Posted by vinc3nt > 2018-08-24 18:37 | Report Abuse

as expected, weak qtr

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:40 | Report Abuse

still within my expectation for this qtr. close to my expectation and ASP also dropped by single digit. Need to study, will come back later.

Posted by Kyou > 2018-08-24 18:44 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5665

Net Profit = 35,205
EPS = 8.12

Posted by Kyou > 2018-08-24 18:45 | Report Abuse

UP 532% @@

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-08-24 18:46 | Report Abuse

Ssteel result is out.
Compared Q4 2018 against Q4 2017, the result is good.
I expect Q1 2019 even better.

I hope good quarter results from Masteel and Lionind.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by ming > 2018-08-24 18:49 | Report Abuse

Fulamak.. hope koonkoon is not here yet

Posted by ramada > 2018-08-24 18:51 | Report Abuse

Not bad, above expectation.
https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5665

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-24 18:54 | Report Abuse

Ssteel inventory:

Q3: 779,858,000
Q4 (this qtr): 842,202,000

So what you to expect Jul-Sep'18 revenue and profit with ASP about 2,550-2,650?

ASP price will up 15%
Sales volume will also up …..

Buy next Monday …. don't fight with me for buying up …. haha

Posted by apolloang > 2018-08-24 18:54 | Report Abuse

not bad,1.80 on mon?

Posted by huahtai98 > 2018-08-24 19:27 | Report Abuse

This stock is grossly undervalued....
Idiots have managed to sell it down so far.

Posted by ming > 2018-08-24 19:46 | Report Abuse

No much retailer yet.. full with potential

Posted by albert787378 > 2018-08-24 19:48 | Report Abuse

this latest quarterly result is so good.the share price can only go in one direction.it is north.

Posted by Fortuneman > 2018-08-24 20:00 | Report Abuse

EPS is lower compare to last qr..

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-08-24 20:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2018-08-24 20:06 | Report Abuse

I follow international accounting rule,
compared Q4 2018 against Q4 2017, the result is good.
I hope I am not wrong.
Please note that I am not an accountant.
Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-08-24 20:12 | Report Abuse

Sell when good px. Next few quarters confirm miss expectation

Posted by Fortuneman > 2018-08-24 21:37 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr Ooi,
By comparing muda latest Qr to their 2017 same Qr result. The result is better, but ppl still throw like making loss..some comments said their previous qr eps higher so can’t consider good result. Thus share price drop..

Posted by Up_down > 2018-08-24 21:52 | Report Abuse

People can get excited easily when the company has reported a better QR during bull run. Nowadays, people look into every detail to make sure.....anymore realistic dreams in next few Qtr.

Posted by vinc3nt > 2018-08-24 22:58 | Report Abuse

hope keep droping

Posted by KLCI King > 2018-08-25 01:51 | Report Abuse

Result is ok, but is it enough to drive the price up？ Let's not put so much hope on the price movement, realistic better than optimistic at the current market conditions.

Posted by wilson2017 > 2018-08-25 14:50 | Report Abuse

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/440256

Posted by wilson2017 > 2018-08-25 14:50 | Report Abuse

马哈迪前天接受《当今大马》专访时澄清，与中国领导人商谈只是设下基调，但东铁和SSER油气管工程是否取消、延期或以其他方式解决，则尚未确定。

Posted by albert787378 > 2018-08-25 14:53 | Report Abuse

the share price will move up in tandem with lionind.trust me on this.sentiment is good for steel stocks.

Posted by huahtai98 > 2018-08-25 18:00 | Report Abuse

Mahathir is seeking low interest Yen loans to settle the high interest Renminbi loans...sign off the Chinese and sign in the Japs at a much lower cost...the projects will resume....just wait.

Posted by ming > 2018-08-26 05:00 | Report Abuse

I wonder ppl compare directly this qr with last qr then claim that margin drop alot.
Think about seasonal effect la..
Go see annjoo/ssteel last financial year then u know this happen every year during raya period..

For me, this result is well above my expectation

Posted by value88 > 2018-08-26 09:29 | Report Abuse

Lower earnings QoQ is expected long before the quarterly report comes out. It was due to lower average selling price and lower demand during Ramadan holidays. Many sources have revealed this info, nothing surprise about this Q's earnings.
We should look into July-Sept'18 quarter to find out local steel price 's movement in July-Sept'18 and its demand. From here, we can estimate the earning potential of SSteel in near future.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-08-26 09:31 | Report Abuse

Sell when good px b4 too late if u wait for few more quarters

Posted by value88 > 2018-08-26 09:31 | Report Abuse

LionInd, AnnJoo will also report lower QoQ earnings, so don't be surprised when the report comes out.
For Masteel, I suppose it will report much lower earnings QoQ because it will suffer high forex loss.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-08-26 09:33 | Report Abuse

Next few q wint b good. Sell b4 too late

Posted by Star8888 > 2018-08-26 18:11 | Report Abuse

Please note that there is tax return 9.091 Mils for this quarter, if not this tax return, the net profit is just around 24 to 25 Mils, not 35.2 Mils. Therefore you can see that PBT 26.38 Mils is less than net profit 35.2 Mils. If you deduct the tax return, do you think 24 to 25 Mils is good or bad quarter result? Please decide yourself.

Posted by 4444 > 2018-08-26 19:39 | Report Abuse

2nd qtrs falling profit. Follow KYY Golden Rule must sell?

Posted by ming > 2018-08-26 22:44 | Report Abuse

Trulyinvest so u agree this qr is good?

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-27 10:04 | Report Abuse

Last call to buy below 1.80 ....

Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-08-27 10:16 | Report Abuse

This stock become stronger and stronger, worth to invest

Posted by Jack888 > 2018-08-27 10:17 | Report Abuse

Buy more to accumulate...consider cheap

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2018-08-27 10:17 | Report Abuse

Interesting......

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-27 10:57 | Report Abuse

Trust me …. I gave you reason …

Next Qtr:
1) ASP increase a lot
2) Inventory increase a lot
3) Scrap materials cost maintain (there is one reason why scrap materials cost being maintained even cost increase in coming qtr ….. this one I disclose later)

Just buy …… For TA part, this is the bottom, will anytime boost up, 1TP will be 2.20 …..

Buy, because this few days are last accumulation phase that collects the stake between 1.70 - 1.90+ ….. anytime will eat up as fast as possible

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-27 11:02 | Report Abuse

Just concentrate on Ssteel counter, forgot other first, there are reasons, next qtr result the best is Ssteel ….

Anyway, my bias view. Don't trust anybody in the market even though I not charged 5,000 fee, some more free.

Posted by Yael Jasper > 2018-08-27 11:11 | Report Abuse

Price will gap up this morning, good luck to all and enjoy the rollercoaster.... hehe

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2018-08-27 13:10 | Report Abuse

.... why price didn't up lei ?

Posted by Albukhary > 2018-08-27 19:24 | Report Abuse

Windcloud, I totally agreed with your point. The ASP and Inventory increase together, next quarter will be KABOOM... Minimum RM60mil profit..

Posted by windcloud > 2018-08-27 20:21 | Report Abuse

good for having Albukhary support. Road is not lonely ….. one day, this ssteel forum will be hot like kopitiam like huaan like lionind ….

Need to wait 2 more steel counters result out, then Ssteel might be can get more people's attention …. then the 100 meter run will start from the fair beginning among 4 steel counters but this time Ssteel may lead the 100 meter run ….. nonsense talking again …

Posted by ming > 2018-08-28 02:00 | Report Abuse

Ya.. earning exceed the earlier king - annjoo jor.
If share price can exceed lagi best.. hehe

Posted by freddiehero > 2018-08-28 05:57 | Report Abuse

wil reach 1.50 ?

Posted by Jack888 > 2018-08-28 06:15 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones 26,049.641 +259.29 1.01%

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-08-28 07:14 | Report Abuse

Got court case. Bcareful