MUHIBAH has a strong fundamental, an established track record, and a good prospect in 2021. I see no reason why not 100% all-in. The recent declines came from those who reaped the short-term gain and did not see this as a portfolio for the long haul. Christmas discount guys
muhibbah is much older than many of u here, muhibbah is not built in 1 day, share ada naik ada turun, jes buy slowly and keep, 1 day it will shine again
We all know the quarter will be bad due to covid.. That's why the price has been going down by a lot.. Now is just a matter of time for it to go back up if there is any good news.. Let's see if the covid vaccine contract will affect the price tomorrow?
If you think it will go below rm 0.9 again you can wait forever ^-^ All the bad news is out and has already affected the price.. Wow rm 1.07 is quite high.. Should have bought at 0.76 when i bought it..
hold on tight. entertainment and travel share are going up....muhibah is silent holder of major airport in Cambodia. Border is open for china traveller to south cambodia for its china one belt one road initiative. airport fees will be sustainable. China investment in sihanoukville requires thousand of traveller in and out and the border never close for this! construction and engineering business will also increase once everything recover...
the latest result only further strengthen my prior analysis on its cashflow. the only reason why it is still afloat now is because of loan moratorium, including hire purchase enjoyed by malaysian during pandemic.
Take a look at its 3Q cashflow - interest paid is halved of last year’s comparative, 33m. The interest paid should have been higher than last year’s because of higher debt level, despite reduced rate by BNM.
Eyes are on its survival after the end of moratorium, which ended 30 September.
An interesting fact from 3Q is the 40m shift from Loan payable to Bill payable, when comparing between 2Q and 3Q. That suggests the company has failed to source cheaper fund to repay term loan but rather has “refinanced” due term loan with Bank Acceptance. Most people know that Bank Acceptance is probably the most expensive debt instrument in malaysian corporate financing.
The real question to be asked is why the company did not refinance its term loan to take advantage of current lower interest rate? instead switching to higher rate’s debt? the answer is obvious, because banks are aware of its liquidity. By the way, it has 13 panel banks and not even one could provide longer term and cheaper facility - term loan?
If one has hard time understanding magnitude of its abusive debt usage, try to imagine yourself in such situation: In 3Q, your 40m house loan is due, you dont have enough money to pay then you take credit card advances from some of 13 credit cards to pay your due house loan. But you still want to shower your wife with birthday party, dividend, for 12m in 4Q because you are afraid wife get mad at you, aka share dropping. That strongly suggests lack of financial discipline.
So where is the cash dividend from SCA, cambodian airport? why the company rather pay expensive interest than request the 200M receivable from SCA ? As I have said, apart from plausibility of recoverability of those paper profits, the company being minority in the JV has no influence on SCA’s dividend policy. How fast cambodian airport recover has no bearing to its imminent debt crisis. After all, the cash return from SCA is long term cash flow to the company, whose booked them under long term asset, not my words.
Of course with the damage brought by pandemic and ongoing new cambodian airport construction by chinese, the release of substantial dividend from SCA is even remotely possible.
There is something worth scrutinisation for what going on with its 60% subsidiary, Favelle Favco (FF), which has been self-sufficient for years, even in this year pandemic, and in 2018 it was so cash-rich to acquire a business for 40m. But in 3Q, it suddenly borrowed 28m in loan. Based on FF past years’ cash flow, the last time FF has net borrowing (proceeds) was in 2009. Throughout 10 years, it has been on net repayment, suggesting it didnt borrow more than it repaid in any given year for 10 years until Q3 2020.
Well, FF investors ought to check if any substantial related party purchase from its holding company in the coming annual report. Perhaps some repackaged junk/shell to sell to FF for channelling money into holding company, Muhibbah. FF should expect to face legal proceeding from FF’s minority shareholder if that happens.
2Qvs 3Q: Debt is raising, cash and order book are depleting, excluded FF, loss is greater. No saviour SCA dividend comes to recuse. I dont see what is going against what I have analysed in months ago, rather 3Q provided further facts to support so. Of course, except more gamblers come into picture.
If these are not strong enough reasoning of redflags for long term investors, then I can only be amused how blindly a person can be.
I do my research before purchasing but I always underestimate the effect of cashflows and debts, so when someone like @certifiedanalyst11 reminds us and made it clear for me, I really thank you.
I don't let my ego say otherwise, cause you can't fight knowledge with blind confidence, so he said it, and I said it.
No worries...just hold. Cambodia is the first country to open up for china to travel. Again, china have lot of interest in southern part of Cambodia. You can check the website of each city airport and you will realise main city international flight from kunming, guangzhou, beijing, xiamen, shanghai and even taipei arrive daily to cambodia. May not as frequent as pre-covid, but definitely first few to bear the fruit from china traveller. I also saw singapore, japan and south korea plane arriving and departing from Phnom Pehn. They still have monopoly on cambodia airport up to 2040! As for engineering, oil & gas is picking up....construction is picking up....i don't think we need to worry. Management taking drastic paycut and yet still pay dividend this year...is not that bad after all...
true....only for the city phnom pehn....but their contract is up to 2040. Thus there should be compensation by the government for breaching the contract. with influx of china businessman and tourist, there will be flowover of income into siem reap airport and silhouville side. besides from airport, i am betting on their engineering and construction since O&G and civil engineering work are picking up within Malaysia post covid.....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
raoyam
6 posts
Posted by raoyam > 2020-11-24 17:25 | Report Abuse
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/chinas-latest-phnom-penh-airport-deal-casts-doubt-/