Posted by Superb99 > 2013-08-28 17:10 | Report Abuse

really hazy in the market now....I actually loss money in this counter...I think 1.6 level is still high as people goreng from 1.5 to 1.9 within few weeks at the beginning of Aug then suddenly dropped like org gila....US war with Syria, announcement by us to stop printing $$$, high debts by local government....risks are all around us

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-28 23:35 | Report Abuse

I was just looking through the charts end of day. Some basic observations:

LBS Mother Share
The RSI has bounced off the oversold threshold and formed a hook pointing upwards signalling a potential reversal of the panic sell-down sentiment due to external market events. Volume is heavy today with with majority in the RM1.50 to RM1.60 range which should form a good support base (RM1.55). LBS share buy-backs accounted for a small 2.5% of today's volume which indicated that buyers are back esp. on the move from RM1.43 back up to RM1.50. Judging from previous high volumes over the last couple of weeks, the panic sell-down could've caused some investors to take up to a 25% loss. First resistance at RM1.70.

LBS Warrants
The candle for today almost formed a bullish all engulfing pattern. Similar to the mother share, the RSI has bounced off the floor and is now looking upwards. First resistance at RM0.825

Both the Mother and Warrant were looking to cross the 20-day SMA before end of trading away from the lower part of the Bollinger band. Where do you want them to go tomorrow?

Posted by musang_foxking > 2013-08-28 23:44 | Report Abuse

gov to consider to increase tax of selling house/RGPT-latest...to curb rising price and speculation

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-28 23:49 | Report Abuse

Yeah RPGT might be increased in Budget 2013 which should help to curb property speculation (first hand owner sell to next owner and so on). It should not have negative impact for first hand owner.

Posted by blekzz9 > 2013-08-29 01:40 | Report Abuse

Tml will go up to 1.70..my prediction..us market is rebounding..

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-08-29 08:17 | Report Abuse

today up up up...

Posted by sharemania > 2013-08-29 09:29 | Report Abuse

i have been quiet for a while but Euscilyn u have again throw out a very good point !

Posted by sharemania > 2013-08-29 09:29 | Report Abuse

how was your australia trio btw ?

Posted by almufathal > 2013-08-29 14:54 | Report Abuse

apa la tulis panjang2...bukan aku paham pun...tulis naik turun sudah la...

Posted by steviebull > 2013-08-29 16:05 | Report Abuse

today all naik giler... lbs steady aje

Posted by Newjune > 2013-08-29 16:20 | Report Abuse

i prefer a steady increase rather than a rocket...rocket go up fast..but come down even faster...

Posted by spongebob > 2013-08-30 15:29 | Report Abuse

tak pegi skolah ke almufathal?

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-30 21:27 | Report Abuse

He 'almost' silenced the whole thread.

Posted by sharemania > 2013-08-30 23:03 | Report Abuse

who you guys refering if you dont mind me asking ?

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-31 11:50 | Report Abuse

Just in case people missed this, LBS has full redeemed RM95mil of Sukuk issued earlier which translated into a cost savings of RM792k. This should have a positive effect on its next quarter's earnings. I believe there are more good things to come.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-31 11:51 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/anpth/934979.jsp

Posted by Muadzam Muzafar > 2013-08-31 13:45 | Report Abuse

hopefully, this counter will go up next week.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-08-31 15:33 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: Good notes. Thanks for taking the time to share. I supposed day traders can play the warrants.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-01 00:00 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: Nicely put. Well there are certain points which I agree and some which I disagree.

Finding out Your Trading Edge
Very much like trading with technical indicators, each person will have their own trading edge. Some people are better at investing for the long term, mid term, 4 weeks and some maybe at day trading. For day trading, timing is critical. As you pointed out volume and price movement are important so pick the right stocks to day trade. Specifically for LBS-WA, both of these are present. The price movement range is between 9 sen and 12 sen daily over the past 2 weeks = ~12%. If you catch the warrant at the right time, you should be able to make at least 5% from day trading this counter.

Value of Warrants
Conversion ratio is not a formula for valuing warrants. Conversion ratio just tells you how many warrants it takes to redeem one mother share. The formula I used is Black Scholes to give me a reference target price for the warrant. The warrant is actually trading very near to the reference value during the high momentum uptrend 2 weeks ago. Treat this number as similar to the Target Price for normal stocks. For e.g. CIMB used 40% to RNAV/share of LBS to come out with the number RM3.03 as target price. I do not think the stock has touch that point yet. When will it touch? Only the market knows.

I am not sure how you got "burnt" but I supposed it is buying in high during stock correction / market down trend. So the real issue here is timing. However if you are a long term investor, you should not worry because an undervalued stock with a good daily volume will reach its target sooner or later.

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-01 21:48 | Report Abuse

if you predict the share got potential, then buy warrant is better. When mother share up, warrant will up double...vice versa, if mother drop, son also drop double...

Posted by Muadzam Muzafar > 2013-09-01 21:56 | Report Abuse

BBB79, Is this the normal trend?

Posted by BBB79 > 2013-09-02 11:41 | Report Abuse

Muadzam Muzafar, normal is like that, but sometime also got special case la...

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-02 16:05 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: NO, but unfortunately a lot of people in the market price it that way. There is one more component in the warrant which is the time value.

Imagine that you want to to buy a house. The house current market price is RM1.70. However instead of buying the house now, you decide to buy the 'right' to buy the house at a later date. This right costs you RM0.74 (premium) and allows you to buy the house at RM1 (strike price) BEFORE 11 June 2018. Now since you know the property market is only going to get better and you 'think' (based on valuation etc) that houses around the area will cost RM4 in June 2018, you believe that buying the 'right' to buy the house at RM0.74 is not a bad decision.

If the house really appreciates to RM4 in 5 years' time, your 'right' will most likely be worth RM3. With an investment of RM0.74, you have made a 300% gain in your investment. On the other hand, if you had invested to buy the house at RM1.70, your gain is only 135%. Furthermore since you can buy 2.3 times more 'rights' than house because it is cheaper, your potential gain is larger.

The 'right' in this example is the warrant. Of course by owning the 'right' only, you cannot stay in the house (business owners' rights) or obtain rent (dividends). I hope that my explanation is logically layman. For the more technical explanation, just Google for warrants.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-02 19:38 | Report Abuse

Sama sama. Hope it helps. If LBS can cross over convincingly above RM1.71 tomorrow, we are looking at the next resistance at RM1.77.

Posted by derrickinvestor > 2013-09-02 22:49 | Report Abuse

i tot it was 1.90 drop till 1.4/1.5.... now bounce back a little bit

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-02 23:24 | Report Abuse

Yeah. It is going to test the highs again soon. Slow and steady.

Posted by JXRepcoBuffet > 2013-09-03 14:08 | Report Abuse

Qiii, very good explanation about warrant.....

Posted by steviebull > 2013-09-03 15:05 | Report Abuse

is the new RPGT affect this counter ?

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-03 15:22 | Report Abuse

steve u mean budget 2014 punya RPGT?

Posted by steviebull > 2013-09-03 15:24 | Report Abuse

yes

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-03 15:28 | Report Abuse

@JXRepcoBuffet: Thanks. Volume today is quite low. Hmmm ...

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-03 15:29 | Report Abuse

how come ya Qiii, any opinion?1 month to go before special dividen...

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-03 15:32 | Report Abuse

I think people are just cautious. Not just this counter but the whole of Bursa is just trading with volume of 826.2 million so far. Buyers are cautious.

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-03 16:42 | Report Abuse

next month will pay special dividend, have any chance within this month, this stock will go up sharply ???????

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-03 16:56 | Report Abuse

I believe it should rise at least 1.80 many investor is worrying QE impact still as Qiii said...

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-03 17:11 | Report Abuse

how do u think if a share price after dividen?u first time buy share?

Posted by fabregas88 > 2013-09-03 17:16 | Report Abuse

normally, I think will drop but I dunno drop how much...

Posted by spongebob > 2013-09-03 18:00 | Report Abuse

Read some reports saying that our govt s move by increasing the gasoline prices has sparked some confidence for foreign investors in the reduction of our country s deficit.. therefore RM has risen to 3 week high, meaning funds are flowing in.... eeehhhhhh... then radio today announced that ministry of consumer affairs will go around telling us that the hike in gas price is to help us and perhaps counter inflation...eeeehhhhhh.... economic 101

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-03 19:29 | Report Abuse

Lol, the minister's comment was probably more political in nature than it makes economic sense.

Anyway, our local institutions have been net buyers in the market over the past few weeks. If economy is really not doing well, I don't think they will want to dump in their funds as well. Anyway, my take is just stay cautious but do not panic and see what happens end of Sep.

Posted by johnny cash > 2013-09-03 19:37 | Report Abuse

IT IS ADJUSTING IT S SELF FROM OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS...SO JUST WAIT,,LET IT BECOME STABLE FIRST

Posted by Superb99 > 2013-09-03 23:46 | Report Abuse

1.7 level is quite high...dont risk ur hard earned money...try other stocks

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-04 10:30 | Report Abuse

Actually 1.70 is not high given the positive fundamental change. Just stay cautious due to market sentiment now.

Posted by micky92 > 2013-09-04 13:10 | Report Abuse

Agree w scjm3, good sense will prevail..

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-04 15:07 | Report Abuse

@scjm3: Very well said and good notes. Thanks.

Posted by jasoninvet > 2013-09-04 15:19 | Report Abuse

of course , 1.70 is not high and now is right time to buy again.

Posted by derrickinvestor > 2013-09-04 15:43 | Report Abuse

1.70 is too high... compare to 1.07 last Apr

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-04 15:55 | Report Abuse

@derrickinvestor: There was one important fundamental change since Aug 2013 so you cannot compare the price vs last year.

Elaborating on what scjm3 posted above, LBS has completed the sale of 2 out of 3 parcels of land they have in ZhuHai. The proceeds of the 2 parcels alone is sufficient for them to buy back the entire market cap in Bursa. The last parcel (most valuable piece) is still retained for future development. According to last estimate by CIMB (2 Aug 2013), their RNAV/share is RM5.05 which means that at RM1.70, they are trading at 66% discount to RNAV/share v.s. sector average of 25%. Even with a conservative 40% of RNAV/share gives LBS a fair value of RM3.03. Therefore RM1.70 is definitely not high.

Posted by cschai > 2013-09-04 19:44 | Report Abuse

Guys/gals, i'm new & do not want to be a wet blanket, but do consider; the US in scaling down QE, the US fiscal cliff is due, theUS is attacking Syria, our country's budget is negative, our country's debt is at the ceiling, household debt is one of the highest in the region, UMNO is choosing it's leaders. So it is better to invest with caution.

Posted by Qiii > 2013-09-04 23:00 | Report Abuse

Yeah. Good points. Agree on being cautious. One thing to note is that we are talking about 2 different things here. One is company fundamentals, the other is market sentiment. Market sentiment is definitely bearish at the moment so no one is trying to paint it as rosy.

Although unrelated to this thread, here's a simplistic & humble balanced view of known factors that may impact (good or bad) the Malaysian market sentiment.
- Strong economic recovery in US (Q2 GDP +2.5% above expectation of 1.7%)
- QE tapering (print less money) leads to exodus of foreign funds. Already happening. When tapering really starts, it may just be a short kick for a while and then we should be back on track.
- USD/MYR exchange rate low due to foreign selling / maturing of bonds. Good for exports, bad for imports. Plantation (palm oil) sector?
- EU out of recession. Not great since not all EU countries are growing but still good news (Q2 GDP +0.3%)
- China still growing. Mixed News.
(Q2 GDP +7.3% - slowest 3 years)
(Aug 2013 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 - highest in 16 months)
- ASEAN economies. Mixed.
(Q2 GDP PH, SG very good)
(Q2 GDP IND good but in twin deficit. Market crashed recently)
(Q2 GDP TH contraction. Risky)
- Impending Syrian air strike = Oil price high. Mixed. Ground troops is highly unlikely so this probably will not be another Iraq or Afghanistan. Good or bad for O&G sector? Airline sector? Property sector?

Internal factors
- Malaysian economy is growing (Q2 GDP +4.3%) - below 5% but higher than Q1 (4.1%).
- Malaysian current account surplus narrowing but still positive. Need immediate attention.
- Credit rating by foreign rating agencies. Need immediate attention on fiscal reform = Budget 2014, Fiscal Policy Committee.
- Who will be PM? Will impact GLCs, government spending / projects. Most likely status quo.
- Inflationary pressure due to petrol price hike, electricity tariff hike. Mixed. Will have impact on earnings.
- BNM policies on overnight policy rate, regulations on borrowing etc. to curb inflation, property speculation. This will definitely have impact on property & banking sectors.
- RPGT hike. As comparison SG has quite stringent policies on gains tax. Do you see their property sector on a downturn?
- Over-Panic selling (or buying) which is not part of 'take profit' or 'cut loss' plan in response to any good / bad news whether correlated or not. IMHO, this is the most dangerous.

Remains my humble opinion.

Posted by Muadzam Muzafar > 2013-09-04 23:10 | Report Abuse

I agreed with Qiii