Last FY2020, MSC's mining turnover was RM160.4M and a profit before tax of RM31.3M. Assuming the same mining rate and costs, the margin expansion comes directly from the tin price. Average tin prices in 2020 were at RM71.6k/t (FX RM4.20). At current prices of US$28,500/t (FX RM4.10), tin price is at RM116.9k/t, and a mining production of 2,200t of tin concentrate, MSC will register a revenue of RM257M. Pretax profit will expand to RM128M. 4X folks. And with a tax rate of 32% per FY2020, we can infer a net profit of RM87M or EPS of 22sen from mining alone. All this projections are on the conservative side as Datuk Patrick Yong did mention about increasing the daily tin production by 15% from 2020 in his recent interview.
With tin supply in a deficit state, many are expecting the same scenario that happened to Nickel in 2007 in which it raced from US$15k in 2006 to hit US$50k the following year. Many experts are postulating for this occurrence this year or the year after.
The catalyst is already there to propel MSC to greater heights. Many who are at the sidelines looking for Q1 or Q2 results for conviction will rue the chances when the ship has sailed away.
Well said James 70 I concur with you Exactly my thoughts 8-12 ringgit is not impossible by 2022 end to 2023 Let’s go past 3 ringgit to 5 ringgit first before June results
the Group began a tin trading and marketing arm under the smelting division, which provides hedging, pricing and marketing links to the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market/London Metal Exchange (KLTM/LME)
The MSC Straits refined tin brand - registered at KLTM and LME - is accepted worldwide, and has purity ranging from the standard Grade A to the premium grade electrolytic tin.
2nd reason to convert the prai land into commercial land which is similar to F&N Sg Besi (KL) which was very sucessfull to make the extra value to the company
It will be a tin mining and smeltering and property developer from next year onwards Those who bought and keep are not going to sell cheap The operators have take a lot a lot of the shares in market Look at today market It is very stable and green unlike most stocks which are red. Thankful to the ceo leadership Hope he bring lots of fortune to msc in years to come
Tin market closes at 10-year high of US$30,700 a tonne
Wednesday, 05 May 2021 1:15 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed at a 10-year high of US$30,700 per tonne today, rising by US$450 from US$30,250 per tonne on Tuesday due to stronger demand from buyers, a dealer said.
He said the last time the KLTM had breached the US$33,000 per tonne level was in April 2011.
"The significant price hike was also in line with the metal’s upward momentum on the London Metal Exchange (LME), ” he said to Bernama, adding that the tin price rose by US$1,030 to end at US$29,330 per tonne on the LME.
As such, the price difference between the KLTM and the LME narrowed to a premium of US$1,370 per tonne from US$2,050 per tonne on Friday.
The LME was closed on Monday for the Early May Bank holiday.
At the opening bell, bids stood at 450 tonnes, while offers stood at 13 tonnes.
The local tin market received buying support from the United States, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Europe and one local seller.
At the close, turnover eased by one tonne to 17 tonnes, while bids stood at 17 tonnes and offers at 22 tonnes. - Bernama
Starting to be worried as following the tin expert on twitter, he mentioned that MSC is only having one furnace functioning, one out of five. I believe this is not good news :( dammit.
That is the set back of MSC. expert the share price to be drop again...until there can resolve the production problem than the high price of tin will not benefit them.
It’s partly because of them that the tin price is high... even with one furnace, they are setting the price on their own terms. The people in this forum are plain speculators who expect the price to go up every day and spooked whenever there is a slight hint of negative news.
Setting the price on their own terms is good, but only one furnace out of 5 is working makes me wonder whether the ASP is enough to cover the loss in volumes.
Our view: In 2020, MSC produced some 22,400 tonnes of refined tin. The furnace issues at Butterworth are expected to delay some 500 tonnes of refined tin production. However, Dr Yong expects the combination of the Butterworth and Port Klang smelters to be more than sufficient to recoup the lost production. “Together with the five furnaces at [Butterworth], we should be catching up with the hiccups caused by the Covid and breakdowns. We are grateful to have very understanding customers who have been bearing up with the situation.”
So if you have missed the boat below 2.40 ringgit Don’t come here and talk nonsense about it’s furnace failure la The ceo datok already explained and he know more than all of us whether he can cover the Downtime. And it’s not a big amount. Spread fear no use one. That day one marky smart marky already said operator listened to him and sell down. Has been missing for days already now 2.76 and again when we hit 3 plus and profit taking he will come out again as usual. Look at June result then let’s see whether the current tin price helps or not.
I am heavily vested and so I am biased but I have facts and basis to back up. Tin price is up is due to the supply is super short and this will only be better til 2023. Win or lose do own diligence
Bro Fctitan FYI It’s not 1 furnace which is working .
In communication with ITA, MSC chief executive officer Dato’ Dr Patrick Yong explained that the different furnaces will come back online over the next month. “One of them will be up and running today and another in one week” he said. “The third is expected to be on line in a month or so.”
And they are ramping up Pulau indah So? Is it a lot of downtime ? Not really.
Cheers My views are biased though but if you have been following how the operator collect since February till now you will know it is in better shape to move to a different ground than before when it started from 80 cent and crashed down.
Brookenzo Next breakout 285-292 which may come soon. Then finally the maiden number 3 ringgit Hold tight tight believers 05/05/2021 11:53 AM
My breakout range touched 286 and then profit taking and flushed 276. Will try again 285-292. If break, then 300 will break for sure right after Shortists and naysayers will think otherwise To each his own. Do your own due diligence
Before i start commenting, Brookenzo bro I want you to know that I am not spreading fear as Im holding shares of MSC as well, and similarly to you Im also heavily vested. These "facts" im sharing here are not for fearmongering purposes, Im just sharing my worries of the company, getting some info and opinion from yall.
The "facts" are from this guy--- @METhompson72 from Twitter, this guy is a guy who seems to be very knowledgeable in the tin industry, and many of his posts lets you know tin news faster than the news. I also know of the news which you are referring, which are dated 20/4 and his post is just two hours ago, which states that MSC is working on one furnace only. So, I'm quite worried for the long term as he mentions this will continue until the end of the year. Due to his words carry some weight, I'm abit shook by this news. All these will only be clarified by the upcoming QR, i doubt it will be lackluster since the disruption in these few months which the furnace was affected will not be reflected in this upcoming QR. But when the tin prices are increasing but the company isnt benefited by it due to its production problems, it really makes me worry.
I've PMed the guy, asking whether his news on MSC running on one furnace is the latest news or what. I also forwarded him the 20/4 Dato Patrick Yong's statement, just waiting for his reply.
Bro FC I am not saying you are fear mongering and I referring to someone else you know I know has sold way back and now sour grapes want it go lower to his price to buy back I am also showing what ceo is telling in interview If an insider who is so accurate than the ceo Then that insider should be ceo n that ceo should be giving false representation to shareholders One must also not forget MSC is a tin miner and not a smeltering company alone He already mentioned that they are ramping up Pulau indah to more than make up for it Don’t forget Pulau Indah efficiency Anyway the whole commodity super cycle will not run forever It will stay awhile and still everyone must have own exit plans later on One can never buy the cheapest or sell the highest all the time unless you are always lucky
Ah, I see, thought the gun was pointed at me haha. Okay, thanks for the words, but I'm also keeping this insider's words at the back of my mind too hahaha. Hoping for better. Cheers.
Brookenzo, thanks for pointing out the interview newspiece. i was worried as Fctitan too after knowing the furnance down issue. However, it seems that is quite normal for the old smelting plant.
Statements below from the CEO is self explanatory. He clearly mention one (of the down furnance) will be back into service on the day of interview, NOT operating one furnance only.
<<< 1) In communication with ITA, MSC chief executive officer Dato’ Dr Patrick Yong explained that the different furnaces will come back online over the next month. “One of them will be up and running today and another in one week” he said. “The third is expected to be on line in a month or so.
2) Dr Yong expects the combination of the Butterworth and Port Klang smelters to be more than sufficient to recoup the lost production. “Together with the five furnaces at [Butterworth], we should be catching up with the hiccups caused by the Covid and breakdowns. >>>
brian3381 Cyclical la tis one. Even tin px high oso cannot reach back 270 22/04/2021 7:44 PM
Welcome back Mr Brain! We all know commod are cyclical business We also don’t know when the super cycle will end but one thing we know for sure is it has closed at 276 which is above what you have posted 2 weeks ago. Mmmmm... Masuk sayang
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Brookenzo
275 posts
Posted by Brookenzo > 2021-05-04 14:59 | Report Abuse
Where the sotong sellers ?
Lol
We going 3 ringgit anyway