My Technical Analysis on MSC based on the perspective of a Positional Trader
The Super Bull Run of MSC started around early November 2020. The price had moved from 70 sen to as high as 5.46 early this month Mar. 2022. An increased of 7.8 times. Any upside potential from here may be limited. Chasing MSC at this price may be very risky. Just beware - Rubber gloves buyers got burnt badly when they chased the glove stocks for bonus issue and end up a big losers. IMO, MSC may be near the end of the super bull run. The beginning of a bearish downward movement may comes soon. The timing depends on the big speculators and Insiders
Buy high and sell higher is a very risky trade for this counter at this current price. Prefer to stay away from this counter. There are hundreds of counters that have move upside potential than MSC
Why higher tin prices won’t hurt demand Tin is commonly known as the ‘spice metal’ because a little bit of tin is in virtually everything.
But it tends to be found in such small quantities that demand is relatively inelastic.
Around half of global tin supply goes into solder for electronics. While it’s a key component it is a tiny fraction of the raw material cost of most consumer items.
Thompson says while the world is tipping hundreds of billions into expanding semi-conductor production, it has neglected to invest in new tin supply.
“We’ve got almost nothing in the supply chain in terms of new projects coming on stream anytime soon,” he said.
“We’ve got background global economic growth, which is on a sort of 2% consumption growth, and particularly coming from the electronics sector, which is growing at somewhere between 9-14%.
“The world has committed, I think, of the order of US$600 billion to new semiconductor capacity. So far, the world has committed $0 for any new tin capacity for the solder to join those electronic components together.
“And then on top of that, you’ve got the green energy revolution which will potentially add another 2-3% per annum demand growth, maybe even quite a bit more than that. And basically that cannot happen.
“There is zero probability, zero, of the tin market growing by 100,000 tonnes of supply by 2030.”
The one gram of tin in an iPhone retailing for thousands of dollars is worth just 5c even at current high prices, Thompson said.
“There is no tin price where Apple will stop making iPhones,” he said.
“You’ve got about five to eight grams in a washing machine, so you’re talking about 25-50c of tin in a $500 item. There probably isn’t a tin price where Bosch stops making washing machines. So it’s highly, highly inelastic demand on the electronics sector.”
It is also virtually unsubstitutable in most applications.
They include tin sulphide, a chemical used to stop plastics decaying in UV sunlight, tin cans, which have a thin layer of tin bearing anti-microbial properties worth just 1.8c which has not been bettered since the Napoleonic Wars, lead-acid batteries, specialty alloys like bronze and the Pilkington Process, used to make flat glass.
“It’s a fairly unique metal, multiple uses in billions and billions and billions of consumer items in very small quantities and very small value amounts. So because of that profile the price really pretty much could go to anything,” Thompson said.
Dato’ Dr. Patrick Yong, Group Chief Executive Officer of MSC said, “Although 2021 was a year of continued challenges globally, MSC stayed resilient and delivered a stellar financial performance for the year. The tin supply deficit is forecasted to continue, which will sustain tin prices in the short to medium term. At the same time, tin demand remains robust in line with the global growth of :- 1-Electric vehicles, 2-Photovoltaic installations and 3-Consumer electronics, among others.
This bodes well for the Group.”
“Against this backdrop, we remain steadfast on our efforts to enhance the Group’s operational efficiencies while managing escalating logistics and operating costs.” “With the lifting of the force majeure, we are accepting tin ores from customers to be smelted. At the moment, we are smelting the backlog of tin ore accumulated from the pandemic. We are delighted to update that the Pulau Indah smelting facility has reached 75% capacity and expect full production in 2022. The full commissioning of the Pulau Indah plant is expected to improve extractive yields, lower manpower costs as well as our carbon footprint.” ”Concurrently, we are also running the Butterworth smelter in parallel. We plan to de-commission this plant in the next 2 to 3 years when we achieve smooth operations at Pulau Indah. We anticipate our financial performance to improve as we phase out production at the Butterworth plant.” “Meanwhile, our tin mining business has delivered a strong performance in FY21, being a direct beneficiary of high tin prices. Despite the FMCO, we have successfully increased the daily mining output at the Rahman Hydraulic Tin mine in Klian Intan, thanks to our efforts to mechanise operations and introduce new technologies at the mine. We look forward to an even higher mining productivity in 2022, barring any unforeseen circumstances.”
1) 80% of KLSE stocks r in down trending zone: weekly price, C < ema18 = bear, n C < ema42 = giant bear TECH, a major sector love by players, is in giant purebear. A good showing in Nasdaq is providing the impetus for our TECH stocks to REBOUND well from low bases. It is like reversion to the mean as economists called it.
2) < 10% of stocks r UP trending: weekly price, C > ema18 = pureBULL The fear of that war escalating to WW3, has caused lots of heavy selling on all stocks, including those in uptrending. As down trend stocks rebound, confidence will gradually flow back to up trend stocks...
I like it also buy damn some people put high sell queue and slowly collect at lower price. When almost reach the price, the sell queue suddenly all missing and price goes up. Macam got ppl purposely collect at low leh
simple jer, u think bull run over then sell lor , if u think this is just beginning then just buy lo.
if u think in future tin price will drop n no demand then sell lor , again if u think got demand n the price of tin can maintain or up then just buy in.
price movement no buddy can predict what we can know is to foresee the tin mkt.....
what i can see is more n more industry need tin la.... more n more technology sector n biz no matter up or down stream they also need tin. Tin is a un-avoidable material to produce tech products.
Tin: The most-traded SHFE 2205 tin closed down 0.48% or 1,590 yuan/mt at 327,890 yuan/mt, with open interest up 130 lots to 29,498 lots.
SHFE warrants inventory dropped 231 mt to 2,266 mt, which is a normal result during the delivery of SHFE 2203. Nonetheless, it is still the lowest level since the Chinese New Year, indicating that the accumulated stocks during the CNY holiday have almost been consumed, and market supply has been relatively tight.
In the spot market, transactions were thin under tight supplies, and some smelters were holding firm to the prices. The downstream demand was also impacted by the repeating pandemic, resulting in a modest spot market.
Palm oil stocks had a great 1st half run seen for now. They r having PT that could turn into IM. I hope this IM is short n shallow = then there is an opportunity for the 2nd half run.
NB: epf is selling like crazzy in the big palm oil stocks for next rm10k withdrawals.
World # 1 Hedgee, Ray Dalio described warren B in 1 word, BRILLIANT.,.
warren said CAGR is the # 8 wonders, esply applying to stock.investing returns.,.
warren made himself rich n famous as the world # 1 best.,. he CAGR at abt 26%.,.
that # means CAGR at 26% for 10 yrs = 10 X for 20 yrs = 10 X 10 = 100 X = warren did that for his stock, BRKA to be world famous.,. n he did it 40 yrs, 100 X 100 = 10,000 X.,. ++
We can reach HIGHER at CAGR 31% for 10 yrs or cycles = 20 X.,. Let us AIM CAGR 26 TO 31% PER CYCLE.,. 2 to 4 cycles p.a.
warren B is the ever lasting n the only ever green actor till now when he taichow his stock, BRKA from usd 50 to $512,990 a share today. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2pTeVvl2/
many of his quotes r for his s/holders like implying that his s/holders must learn to hold BRKA at least 10 years. how is he so confident? warren is known to be a math genius. he knows how CAGR works n i.e. exactly he is doing for BRKA..
in msia, never plan to hold a stock for 10 years. go after growth stocks at their growing months n i.e. it. be guided, stocks go up 10% of its time n the large balance is either down or sideway.
warren concludes for us with his 2 best pts on stock.investing: 1) CAGR is the 8th wonder of the world 2) Rule # 1 Never loss money n Rule # 2 repeat Rule # 1 to reach HIGHER...
When at the end of a Super Bull Cycle - The correct strategy for MSC is - Any technical rebound is the good opportunity to sell/unload your buy position Cheers
PureBULL >>>, [2022-03-22 4:20 PM] THE BEST GLOBAL BIZ NOW IS
EV n ES MATERIAL stocks for rechargeable battery, for long term growing values in this century. n the v best stocks in msia r: EV.METAL stocks in PMBTECH, MSC n then PMETAL
WHY can't 1 research guy in IB or SBC sees this huge OPPORTUNITY at its infant stage, n begins calling it EV.METAL for portfolio CORE HOLDINGS on the long haul?
I stare at stock charts at more than a full time job = will have no time to do marketing.
be guided by BUY WHAT MR MKT WANTS TO PLAY UP; 2 to 4 cycles p.a. i.e. a. 2 cycles of Growth Investing 25 to 50% up to even 100%
b. 2 cycles of Value Investing 10 to 25% up on REBOUND like happening in TECH stocks now, from their ocean level pricing. I will have new job to do on how to max REBOUND cycles...
TECH STOCKS R GIANT PUREBEAR
could enjoy the top of this euphoric REBOUND soon. as always, when a peak is established, spinning the top a few times to form a diamond pattern n then program selling takes over.
NB: Theme.Play takes precedence in msian mkt. its TECH now, n all others have to take the back seats.
IT'S HUGE ENERGY OR POWER SUPPLY CRISIS in cina n europar.
EV.METALS, r energy guzzlers n will require tonnes of power to produce at close to 100% content. Our msia has LOTS of LOW priced green energy: PMETAL, aluminum n PMBTECH, silicon r using hydro electric of Bakun n cousins of dams. n MSC, tin uses natural gas. tin smelting should be the lucrative biz now after 120 yrs for this grand old stock.
No worry ,for those who kawan MSC. Once qtr out, msc going to challenges its Historical all time high. Thus, perrish the chances as where it is now $4.60(neutral in short term) nia
Stock: [MSC]: MALAYSIA SMELTING CORP BHD Mar 23, 2022 5:16 PM | Report Abuse
PureBULL >>>, [2022-03-22 4:20 PM] THE BEST GLOBAL BIZ NOW IS
EV n ES MATERIAL stocks for rechargeable battery, for long term growing values in this century. n the v best stocks in msia r: EV.METAL stocks in PMBTECH, MSC n then PMETAL
WHY can't 1 research guy in IB or SBC sees this huge OPPORTUNITY at its infant stage, n begins calling it EV.METAL for portfolio CORE HOLDINGS on the long haul?
I stare at stock charts at more than a full time job = will have no time to do marketing.
be guided by BUY WHAT MR MKT WANTS TO PLAY UP; 2 to 4 cycles p.a. i.e. a. 2 cycles of Growth Investing 25 to 50% up to even 100%
b. 2 cycles of Value Investing 10 to 25% up on REBOUND like happening in TECH stocks now, from their ocean level pricing. I will have new job to do on how to max REBOUND cycles...
TECH STOCKS R GIANT PUREBEAR
could enjoy the top of this euphoric REBOUND soon. as always, when a peak is established, spinning the top a few times to form a diamond pattern n then program selling takes over.
NB: Theme.Play takes precedence in msian mkt. its TECH now, n all others have to take the back seats.
IT'S HUGE ENERGY OR POWER SUPPLY CRISIS in cina n europar.
EV.METALS, r energy guzzlers n will require tonnes of power to produce at close to 100% content. Our msia has LOTS of LOW priced green energy: PMETAL, aluminum n PMBTECH, silicon r using hydro electric of Bakun n cousins of dams. n MSC, tin uses natural gas. tin smelting should be the lucrative biz now after 120 yrs for this grand old stock.
U jokers like purebull n gang dont understand economics lerr... Black swan event... Gold for roubles has happened.... Means usd worthless n new money is comodities...
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
freddiehero
16,721 posts
Posted by freddiehero > 2022-03-17 07:14 |
Post removed.Why?