Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-20 23:14 | Report Abuse

It moved today because Up- Down is buying. Check out his postings above

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 00:04 | Report Abuse

This is a illiquid counter but upside potential is high if you look few years ahead from now. I don't expect fast money.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 00:24 | Report Abuse

It would be interesting to see how they perform this q

Posted by ckliew88 > 2014-02-21 09:51 | Report Abuse

very difficult to buy inno shares

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 09:51 | Report Abuse

up-down, what do you think of Ivory ? I bought some recently. It looked like share price stirring

Posted by ckliew88 > 2014-02-21 09:52 | Report Abuse

dear up-down , are u buying inno shares ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 09:52 | Report Abuse

but you need to be careful about this company as gearing quite high, and not profitable yet. But they own 45% of Penang World City, which has RM10 billion GDV. Facing the sea in Penang Island

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 09:53 | Report Abuse

buy at your own risk, ok ?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 10:01 | Report Abuse

I have not analysed Ivory.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 10:02 | Report Abuse

ckliew88. If you feel this counter would worth above RM 2.0 then why are you worry to buy at 1.6 plus?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 10:06 | Report Abuse

I have collected past few years plantation data of INNO. The FFB growth should be at least 50% in year 2014 and compound growth about 30% for year 2015 & 2016.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 11:20 | Report Abuse

i bought since 2011. It has not moved until now. Maybe you guys timing better, as now the asset is ripe for harvesting

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 11:38 | Report Abuse

Not many people notice and hard to collect more at cheaper price. Those shareholders would only sell some for fun. Waiting it to announce good results for the next few quarters. It's the harvesting period.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 11:49 | Report Abuse

You should have bought many lots. I just managed to grabbed some at 1.6 +. Want to collect more at this level of prices are not easy.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 13:15 | Report Abuse

i bought limttle bit only. It is a boring stock (but i love you Innorprise)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 14:34 | Report Abuse

big buyer at 165 !

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 14:48 | Report Abuse

170!

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 14:52 | Report Abuse

This fellow scare off the seller at 1.6+. Nobody want to sell even at 170. It can be fried easily to 180.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 15:00 | Report Abuse

i thought you r the one queueing to buy : )

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 15:10 | Report Abuse

How to buy cheaper after this guy suddenly placed 50 lots order.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 16:06 | Report Abuse

the buyer bidding 169

Posted by ckliew88 > 2014-02-21 16:28 | Report Abuse

what is going on? so many buyers suddenly

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 16:30 | Report Abuse

maybe result good ?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 17:28 | Report Abuse

It could be attracting much interest after we have revealed information of the plantation data. The FEB production is booming from this year onward. Enjoy the party while CPO price moving up.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 18:37 | Report Abuse

you mentioned you have collected some data. can share ?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-21 18:38 | Report Abuse

I am referring to this post :

"I have collected past few years plantation data of INNO. The FFB growth should be at least 50% in year 2014 and compound growth about 30% for year 2015 & 2016."

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-21 19:49 | Report Abuse

I base on the trees age to estimate the FFB. Need to get back to my office to retrieve the data tomorrow.

Posted by ckliew88 > 2014-02-21 23:58 | Report Abuse

dear up_down , can you share the data on FFB and estimated revenue / profit ? many thanks

Posted by ckliew88 > 2014-02-22 00:03 | Report Abuse

this counter normally very quiet but suddenly so many buyers ... what is going on ?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 10:43 | Report Abuse

Plantation land bank: 22,763 hac
Plantable area: 13,000 hac

Mature area ( accumulate):
2011 - 2,000 hac
2012 - 1,451 hac ( 3,451 hac )
2013 - 1,594 hac ( 5,045 hac )
2014 - 3,967 hac ( 9,012 hac )
2015 - 1,815 hac ( 10,827 hac )
2016 - 2,173 hac ( 13,000 hac )

Prime Mature area accumulate:
2015 - 2,000 hac
2016 - 3,451 hac
2017 - 5,045 hac
2018 - 9,012 hac
2019 - 10,817 hac
2020 - 13,000 hac

Planted of trees in year:
2011 - 2,173 hac ( Fully planted 13,000 hac )
2010 - 1,815 hac
2009 - 3,967 hac
2008 - 1,173 hac
2007 & before - 3,872 hac

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 11:02 | Report Abuse

You can see the growth of plantation division. Turnover growth is almost 100% when comparing between Sep 13 & Mar 13. The turnover and profit would be higher in final quarter. It indicates that INNO has just started enjoying good harvesting time.

Plantation division

Turnover:
30 Sep 13 - 8,465,000
30 Jun 13 - 6,290,000
31 Mar 13 - 4,441,000

Profit / (Loss):
30 Sep 13 - 3,038,000
30 Jun 13 - ( 132,000 )
31 Mar 13 - ( 1,562,000 )

EPS:
31 Mar 13 - 1.38 cents
30 Sep 13 - ( 0.13 cents )
30 Jun 13 - ( 0.87 cents )

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 11:36 | Report Abuse

Let me help you to enhance the financial model. Pulling out my spreadsheet now. Give me some time

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:04 | Report Abuse

(1) principal assumption for FFB yield : age 4 (5 MT per ha), age 5 (9 MT per ha), age 6 (13 MT per ha), age 7 (17 MT per ha), age 8 (21 MT per ha), age 9 (25 MT per ha), age 10 (25 MT per ha)

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:14 | Report Abuse

(2) profit projection for 2014 :

2007 planted (age 7) : 3872 ha x 17 MT = 65824 MT FFB
2008 planted (age 6) : 1173 ha x 13 MT = 15249 MT FFB
2009 planted (age 5) : 3967 ha x 9 MT = 35703 MT FFB
2010 planted (age 4) : 1815 ha x 5 MT = 9075 MT FFB
2011 planted (age 3) : 2173 ha x 0 MT = 0 MT FFB

Total FFB = 125851 MT
based on OER of 21%, CPO = 26429 MT.
based on CPO 2600 per MT and cost of RM1400 per MT, PBT per MT = RM1200
PBT = 26429 x 1200 = RM31.7m
net profit based on 25% tax = RM24m

EPS based on 188m shares = 12.8 sen
PER based on RM1.69 = 13.2 times

based on assumption of 50% pay out (optimistic assumption), dividend = 6.4 sen. dividend yield based on RM1.69 = 3.8%

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:18 | Report Abuse

(3) profit projection for 2015 :

2007 planted (age 8) : 3872 ha x 21 MT = 81312 MT FFB
2008 planted (age 7) : 1173 ha x 17 MT = 19941 MT FFB
2009 planted (age 6) : 3967 ha x 13 MT = 51571 MT FFB
2010 planted (age 5) : 1815 ha x 9 MT = 16335 MT FFB
2011 planted (age 4) : 2173 ha x 5 MT = 10865 MT FFB

Total FFB = 180024 MT
based on OER of 21%, CPO = 37805 MT.
based on CPO 2600 per MT and cost of RM1400 per MT, PBT per MT = RM1200
PBT = 37805 x 1200 = RM45.4m
net profit based on 25% tax = RM34m

EPS based on 188m shares = 18.1 sen
PER based on RM1.69 = 9.3 times

based on assumption of 50% pay out (optimistic assumption), dividend = 9 sen. dividend yield based on RM1.69 = 5.4%

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:20 | Report Abuse

(4) profit projection for 2016 :

2007 planted (age 9) : 3872 ha x 25 MT = 96800 MT FFB
2008 planted (age 8) : 1173 ha x 21 MT = 24633 MT FFB
2009 planted (age 7) : 3967 ha x 17 MT = 67439 MT FFB
2010 planted (age 6) : 1815 ha x 13 MT = 23595 MT FFB
2011 planted (age 5) : 2173 ha x 9 MT = 19557 MT FFB

Total FFB = 232024 MT
based on OER of 21%, CPO = 48725 MT.
based on CPO 2600 per MT and cost of RM1400 per MT, PBT per MT = RM1200
PBT = 48725 x 1200 = RM58.5m
net profit based on 25% tax = RM44m

EPS based on 188m shares = 23 sen
PER based on RM1.69 = 7.3 times

based on assumption of 50% pay out (optimistic assumption), dividend = 11.5 sen. dividend yield based on RM1.69 = 6.8%

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:23 | Report Abuse

(5) profit projection for 2017 :

2007 planted (age 10) : 3872 ha x 25 MT = 96800 MT FFB
2008 planted (age 9) : 1173 ha x 25 MT = 29325 MT FFB
2009 planted (age 8) : 3967 ha x 21 MT = 83307 MT FFB
2010 planted (age 7) : 1815 ha x 17 MT = 30855 MT FFB
2011 planted (age 6) : 2173 ha x 13 MT = 28249 MT FFB

Total FFB = 268536 MT
based on OER of 21%, CPO = 56394 MT.
based on CPO 2600 per MT and cost of RM1400 per MT, PBT per MT = RM1200
PBT = 56393 x 1200 = RM67.7m
net profit based on 25% tax = RM51m

EPS based on 188m shares = 27 sen
PER based on RM1.69 = 6.3 times

based on assumption of 50% pay out (optimistic assumption), dividend = 13.5 sen. dividend yield based on RM1.69 = 8.0%

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 12:26 | Report Abuse

summary : EPS for 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 will be 12.8 sen, 18.1 sen, 23 sen, 27 sen respectively

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 14:32 | Report Abuse

Well done.

The EPS would be slightly lower this year since INNO has not completed its palm oil mill. How you get the basis for costs RM 1400/MT? thanks

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 14:39 | Report Abuse

1400 plugged from the air

Ke ke

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-22 14:41 | Report Abuse

Am I seeing things? INNO PE 600x?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 14:41 | Report Abuse

If I am not mistaken, theoretically INNO could be the lowest forward PER among the plantation companies if you base on the your valuation method.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 14:45 | Report Abuse

speakup. After you have done a proper analysis, you would understand why it's worthwhile to buy INNO even at PER 600x. This is the magic in stock market.

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-22 14:46 | Report Abuse

where their plantations? peninsular? sabah? sarawak? indonesia?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 14:46 | Report Abuse

Sabah

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-22 14:51 | Report Abuse

current valuations seems very high. i can only think of 1 reason why INNO is trading at this valuations.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 15:05 | Report Abuse

Icon8888. Normally, i would do a simple screening of some plantation company with a ratio almost similar with PER. I would call it PCR.

Market share price / [ [ planted hectare x annual FFB per hectare x OER ]/ number of ordinary shares /1000].

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-22 15:12 | Report Abuse

Equivalent to market price / CPO per share ?

In inno case, based on my above calculation, CPO in 2014 = 26429 MT, divided by 188,000 (which is 188m / 1000 ) = 0.14

1.69 / 0.14 = 12 times

So is 12 times high or low ? How to interprete.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-22 16:02 | Report Abuse

This ratio is to make a comparison purpose for planted area. The lower of its value, potential is higher. Of course, the results may not seems reasonable if you compare with those companies owning big portion of old mature area.

INNO PCR
1.69/ [ ( 13,000 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 188,000 ] = 5.83x

SOP PCR
6.08 / [ ( 63,261 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 443,000 ] = 10.4x

IJM Plant PCR
3.31 / [ ( 46,761 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 802,000 ] = 9.37x

Posted by speakup > 2014-02-22 17:20 | Report Abuse

Inno owns 15% of Hsplant. Hsplant was featured in Star Biz as top 10 cash rich plantation companies in Malaysia.