One month ago I was bearish on MNRB because I spotted bearish flows coming from Maybank IB (IVT trader account). Huge lot size sell-off.
As MNRB's share price hit RM1.62 on Friday, I have turned bullish on the company again. Reinsurance profit will continue to increase due to improved investment income from FI and equity as well as improvements in net earned premium (NEP). For the next financial quarter, investors want to see (1) higher margins for re-insurance profits (2) how the company management deal with higher interest rate (higher for longer IR) (3) how co deals with capital calls (4) Further rebound in family takaful business [Takaful Ikhlas]
My next PT for MNRB is RM2.20 as MNRB is safe from the broad market sell-off. Cautiously optimistic before the next quarterly earnings (expected late May)
All eyes on MNRB's Reinsurance/Retakaful revenue Key ST tailwinds: (i) Investment Return for Reinsurance & Retakaful - FYE 2023: RM74.3M | FYE 2024: RM168.9M (+127.5%) as a result of the shift towards Managing General Agents MGA model for claims Q2 2024 estimate for re-insurance returns is approx RM65 million (base case) and RM87 million (best/bull case) (ii) Signed MoU with CPPIC to offer oncology services (iii) Two-fold increase (>150%) in Takaful Ikhlas business on the back of outstanding growth in the Corporate Solutions & Bancassurance segments (iv) Gross written premium for overall Group at a steady growth rate of 14.2 CAGR as of 05 March 2024 (v) Minimal impact from Malaysian Re (Dubai) unit since according to AM Best, the low peneration and extensive reinsurance as well as hedging by insurance companies suggests that the recent flooding would be manageable for insurers
[[The motor segment is most vulnerable to natural catastrophe events for the UAE’s primary insurers as these risks are largely retained by the market. AM Best notes this catastrophe is likely to cause a significant deterioration in the performance of motor portfolios due to flooded roads and car parks can quickly result in a large number of losses. Although it is predicted that these risks will be largely retained by the market.
However, the motor policy standard imposed by the UAE’s Ministry of Economy does not cover natural disasters, leaving insurers the choice of whether to offer this coverage. Typically it includes flood cover; however, these represent a minority of premiums with most customers opting for cheaper third-party liability policies.
The changing weather trends have already influenced the behaviour of insurers across the wider Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region, notes AM Best. In 2023 and early 2024, the market observed an increase in hailstorms and heavy rainfalls that notably caused flash floods with some insurers starting to take action to reduce potential losses through loss mitigation tactics.]]
I feel something wrong with the QR. Look at the cash flow statement. Operating cash flow so little. Cash balance reduce so much. Revenue drop. But Net Income Increase so much, and this doesn't make sense at all. Just compare it to LPI and ALLIANZ, you will see this figure does make sense
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
GLNT
566 posts
Posted by GLNT > 2024-03-27 16:44 | Report Abuse
Whoever wanna sell, pls sell faster. Yawn...