Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Thank you @ Mr wangge for your good words.
Since everyone is happy to share, I also want to share my write-up below.
Thank you.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

That's right, i can hardly find any stocks in Bursa with such undemanding valuation in term of PE and forward PE and business prospect.

YTL n YTLP are having 3 months correction and consolidation which is normal...both should be bottoming at RM 3.5++

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nvidia will invest 100 MW of AI data centres in FY 2025/6, a hyperscaler will lease 40 MW + 40 MW in FY 2026/7.
Sea Ltd will lease 48 MW data centres without AI in stages from FY 2025/6.

Constraints
It is very difficult to find out the actual customer beside Nvidia because this information is confidential now.
The amount of MW required by the customers of YTL Power and the timing of finished construction of data centres building to be handed over to the customers are very important to determine the projected profits.
The customer is using an AI data centre or data centre without AI (as a storage only). The rental fee for an AI data centre is a few times more expensive than a normal data centre without AI.
The actual MW usage of all customers for financial years.
Can 100 MW AI data centres be ready in FY 2025 and FY 2026 ? I will assume 50 MW in FY 2025 and > 100 MW in FY 2026.
Do not know whether the data centre is using H100 chips or the latest Blackwell GB200 GPU chips which are more expensive and almost twice the selling price of H100 chips.

Assumptions
I will assume the first 50 MW AI data centre and 30 MW data centre without AI utilise in FY 2025.
I will assume the first 100 MW AI data centre and 48 MW data centre without AI utilise in FY 2026.
I will assume the first 180 MW AI data centre and 48 MW data centre without AI utilise in FY 2027.
I assume this data centre will use H100 chips in FY 2025 and FY 2026. If the latest Blackwell B200 GPU chips are used partially in FY 2026, the revenue will increase accordingly. I have no problem taking a lower revenue in FY 2026.
According to the latest information I gathered, the hourly rate charged in the leasing is ranging from US$4.40 to US$6.65 per hour in the US. This charge is applicable to the US market only. In actual fact, the land cost and infrastructure cost are cheaper in Malaysia, hence it is not advisable to use the US rate to apply in Malaysia. Thus, I decided to follow the hourly rate charged by Macquarie's analyst at US$3.25.
I decided to use the profit margin of around 30% of the revenue. I prefer the profit margin to be lower so that I will not inflate the target price of YTLPower.
I will use the yearly profit of 2.1 million for every MW of data centres without AI leased out to the customers.
Please note this statement made by Jensen Huang in the US presentation. "According to Jensen Huang, for every dollar a cloud service provider spends with Nvidia, it translates to $5 worth of rentals. The profit margin of the AI data centre is very huge (400% margin)".
I believe there is no tax on the profit of YTLPower from the data centres project.

Calculation
If the charge per GPU per hour = USD 3.25 (50 MW) for FY 2025
Total revenue per year = USD (3.25*78.432*24*365/1000)/2 = USD1116.480 million
Exchange rate (1 USD = RM 4.20) = RM4689.214 million
Net profit margin (30%) = RM1406.764 million
Net profit from leasing 30 MW to Sea Ltd per year = RM63.000 million
YTLPower owns 60% of this data center.
The net profit from YTLPower = 881.859 million per year
Number of shares issued = 8.264 billion
EPS = 0.107
FY 2025
EPS from DC = 0.107
EPS from the existing business less 10% due to appreciation of RM = 0.387
Total EPS = 0.494
Assume PER = 10, the target price = 4.94
Assume PER = 15, the target price = 7.41

Calculation
If the charge per GPU per hour = USD 3.25 (100 MW) for FY 2026
Total revenue per year = USD (3.25*78.432*24*365/1000) = USD2232.96 million
Exchange rate (1 USD = RM 4.20) = RM9378.428 million
Net profit margin (30%) = RM2813.528 million
Net profit from leasing 48 MW to Sea Ltd per year = RM100.800 million
YTLPower owns 60% of this data center.
The net profit from YTLPower = 1748.597 million per year
Number of shares issued = 8.264 billion
EPS = 0.212
FY 2026
EPS from DC = 0.212
EPS from the existing business less 10% due to appreciation of RM = 0.387
Total EPS = 0.600
Assume PER = 10, the target price = 6.00
Assume PER = 15, the target price = 9.00

Calculation
If the charge per GPU per hour = USD 3.25 (180 MW) for FY 2027
Total revenue per year = USD (3.25*78.432*24*365*1.8/1000) = USD4328.505 million
Exchange rate (1 USD = RM 4.20) = RM18179.722 million
Net profit margin (30%) = RM5453.917 million
Net profit from leasing 48 MW to Sea Ltd per year = RM100.800 million
YTLPower owns 60% of this data center.
The net profit from YTLPower = 3332.830 million per year
Number of shares issued = 8.264 billion
EPS = 0.403
FY 2027
EPS from DC = 0.403
EPS from the existing business less 10% due to appreciation of RM = 0.387
Total EPS = 0.790
Assume PER = 10, the target price = 7.90
Assume PER = 15, the target price = 11.85

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Target price of YTLPower set by broker
HLIB - 7.45
Macquarie - 7.30
Affin - 6.45
TA - 6.39
MIDF - 6.39
RHB - 5.94
CIMB - 5.50

Recommendation
It is very difficult to forecast the actual profit of YTLPower until a clearer picture surfaced. All the above projected profits are based on my assumptions only. I just try my very best to project this future profit so that all my valued readers are better informed and ensure they invest in this good fundamental stock to win big.
I believe the share price of YTLPower cannot move up north temporarily due to an investigation by MACC on YTL Communications. We have to wait for a while to let his investigation be resolved. YTLPower is an international company doing business in many parts of the world. YTLPower helps Malaysia to earn a big sum of money from foreign countries, it is logical that the government cannot afford to do a big harm to her unless it is a big corruption scandal involving YTLPower.
I believe the share price of YTLPower at 3.30 is the bottom price, hence the downside is limited now. I will not cut losses anymore. I will Just hold on to the share because the upside potential is very big due to huge profit from AI data centres. I will ignore current bearish market sentiments and also the bearish technical chart. I will just keep YTLPower shares on a bit longer term basis.
Please note that many shortiests are not brave enough to short YTLPower shares because they know that the big profit from AI data centres will come into effect in FY 2025 and FY 2026/7.
I have been studying the AI data centres in the US and Nvidia for a long period of time, I just cannot believe that the potential profit from AI data centres is so huge.
There must be a good reason why all brokers in town are recommending a high target price for YTLPower. I believe the potential is from the AI data centres.
I dare not aim so high on the target price for FY 2025, if the share price of YTLPower can hit a high around 7.45 as recommended by HLIB, I will feel very happy and laugh all the way to the bank.
The target price for FY 2026 and FY 2027 will be very high because of the full capacity of AI data centres of more than 100 MW are utilised. We can have a better understanding once we read the annual report of YTLPower for FY 2025.
Oracle will invest US$6.5 billion in AI cloud and data centres in Malaysia. It will be very good news if Oracle really participates in the AI data centres of YTLPower like Nvidia. I believe this information will be available soon since Oracle has no intention to buy land and build AI data centres herself. If Oracle is keen to work with Nvidia on AI data centres, it is a logical choice to select the AI data centers of YTLPower.
It's quite plausible that Oracle might consider leasing data center capacity from YTLPower, especially given the established partnership between YTLPower and Nvidia. Oracle is deeply invested in providing AI services and cloud infrastructure, and its collaboration with Nvidia is central to this strategy. Since Nvidia has partnered with YTLPower to establish a 100 MW data center in Johor, Malaysia, it's reasonable to assume that Oracle could utilize these facilities to support its AI-driven cloud services, particularly for Nvidia-related infrastructure like NVIDIA DGX Cloud.
I believe Oracle may lease 50 to 100 MW AI data centres in Johor from YTLPower in the near future. If this information is true, the potential profit from this AI data centre will be huge to the extent of > RM10 billion per year based on the aforesaid calculation. The future potential profit from these AI data centres will be the core business of YTLPower. I also believe the share price of YTLPower will cross RM10.00 easily if the above deal is struck.
The Nvidia supercomputer will help the share price of YTLPower to go up to new highs.
YTLPower is very lucky to be selected as a partner of Nvidia in this AI DC project.
It is not so easy to find a very good fundamental and strong growth stock like YTLPower. Hence just buy and hold YTLPower on a longer term basis.
If you buy YTLPower shares around RM3.70, if the share price of YTLPower is able to hit the target price of RM7.45 set by HLIB, the ROI is > 100%.

The final decision to buy is always yours.
Good luck.
Thank you.

Posted by wangge > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

OTB, yes I am dreaming n waiting YTLpower to cross RM10 years to come . Trust my dream will come true n real ya 🤝🤝🤝

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Mr. OTB, good calculations above. Your projected earnings from the AI data centre business is more or less close to my earlier calculations though I was using an assumed leasing rate of just USD2.50 per hour per GPU.

You are probably right that the leasing rate has moved up substantially, especially after Blackwell was introduced and the pricing of Blackwell is higher than the Hopper series. My earlier assumption of US$2.50 per hour per GPU now looks too conservative.

On another note, I notice that some parties have overplayed the currency fluctuation effect on YTLP earnings. It is good that you have used a conservative assumption of 10% impact from FX, but I won't expect that much of an impact in reality.

FYI, USD has since strengthened to above RM4.35 and SGD has strengthened to RM3.285 today, which is less than 5% impact from my earlier assumption of SGD1.00 = RM3.45.

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@ Mr dragon328,
Thank you for your comments.
Currency exchange rate is very difficult to predict.
I just try to use a higher rate so that my EPS is lower.
Thank you.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Furthermore, the inflation effect on YTLP's subsi business will partly offset the negative FX impact, eg. Jordan Power PPA has got inflation adjustment in the O&M cost recovery component and mining operating costs component, an 5% CPI/PPI rate will partly offset the 10% weakness in USD.

Another example is that when crude oil prices rise, the generation costs in Singapore electricity will rise in tandem, as most of the generators there are CCGT that burns PNG or LNG, both are linked to crude oil prices. Hence, USEP and wholesale prices / retails prices will all increase proportionally. Often there is a lag effect in the increased gas costs to the increase in retails prices, as the gas costs are based on forward gas/oil prices but retails price may be raised immediately for the following months the next day when retails contracts are signed. Gencos will always priced the retails prices slightly higher when oil prices increase, hence there is always an additional hidden margin when retails prices are adjusted. Both steps will have positive effect onto Gencos' margin, which will partially offset against the negative FX impact.

Furthermore, Bank of England is ready to cut rates further after the jumbo rate cut by US Fed in September, and this will help to lower interest expenses of Wessex substantially. A 1% rate cut will help Wessex to save some GBP10m of interest expenses a year as it has about GBP1.0 billion of floating rate debts. Lower fund rates will help Wessex tremendously in next 5 years as Wessex embarks on its massive capex programmes and will be able to raise new debts at much lower rates. A 2% rate reduction in new debts issuance of GBP2.5 billion will help save a massive GBP50 million in interest expenses every year. That will be more than offset the 3% impact from the strengthened ringgit against the pounds.

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@ Mr dragon328,
I predict Oracle and Microsoft will collaborate and lease AI data centres from YTLPower because of the collaboration of Nvidia with YTLPower.
If my prediction is true, the share price of YTLPower will be very high.
I put very high hope on this prediction.
Thank you.

Posted by ks55 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

If YTLP can cross 3.70, it may come to 3.80
If YTLP can cross 3.80, it may come to 4.00
If YTLP can cross 4.00, it may come to 5.00
If YTLP can cross 5.00, it may come to 6.00
If YTLP can cross 6.00, it may come to 8.00
If YTLP can cross 8.00, it may come to 10.00

Conversely:
If YTLP can come down to 3.60, it may come to 3.50
If YTLP can down to 3.50, it may come to 3.20
If YTLP can down to 3.20, it may come to 3.00
If YTLP can down to 3.00, it may come to 2.80
If YTLP can down to 2.80, it may come to 2.50
If YTLP can down to 2.50, it may come to 2.20
If YTLP can down to 2.20, it may come to 2.00

What I know before a share can shoot up to 10 ringgit, it must first to cross 6 ringgit, then 8 ringgit, then only 10 ringgit.

I am very certain the logic above represent the truth.

Posted by ks55 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Everything talk about probability, or likelihood.

Posted by ks55 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

If you take up a Quantitative Analysis course, there is a classic example how to choose between 2 stocks.
Stock A give you a chance of making 100% with 10% probability.
Stock B give you a chance to make 30% with 90% probability over same time frame.
Which stock would you buy?

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

NOBODY knows the probability of success rate n or the quantum of gains in % of a stock.
to me, those 2 scenarios r Opportunity.
i will hoot.9.e on 1 condition,
at a NICE HL entry pt.

then RISK begins.
i.e. Protect the downside, UPside will take care of itself,
as advised by world # 1 iliot pres dtrum.

Importantly, in msian stocks, know the character of the stock.
Buddha said, What u practise is what u become.
that line applies to msian GWS too.

YTLP is macam sotong now.
it was once v fast to anger.
be prepared well, it would be again.

Posted by Antifanaticracism > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

100x10 =1000%
30x90 = 2700%
Definitely chose B

Posted by Bernard85 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

It's going back up to RM4, I think

Posted by FAInvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nvidia is surging again as at now.

Posted by Beta Ipoh > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

（charge per GPU per hour = USD 3.25 (180 MW) for FY 2027
Total revenue per year = USD (3.25*78.432*24*365*1.8/1000) = USD4328.505 million
hi Mr OTP may i ask u what is 78.432 and 1.8 and 1000？

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

@Beta Ipoh,
USD (3.25*78.432*24*365*/1000), the amount expressed in million.
The above is the formula to calculate 100 MW of AI data centre.
I get this formula from the analyst report.

If I use USD (3.25*78432*24*365), the amount is expressed in billion.
180 MW = 1.8 * 100 MW.
Hope I explain.
Thank you.

Posted by Beta Ipoh > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

tq andwhat is 78432？

Posted by OTB > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

78,432 is derived from below.

Number of GPUs in one server 8 Details
Number of servers (100MW divide by 0.0102) 9,804
Number of GPUs in total 78,431

Thank you.

Posted by Beta Ipoh > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

wa！！very very nice explain。
sorry sifu ，i really don know then i ask you。now i more understand the fomula 。
OTP sifu Tq for ur explain。🙂

Posted by FAInvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nvidia closed all time high

Posted by klee > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

HOOT

Posted by chopstick > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

good news coming soon

Posted by Bernard85 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

YTL Power is rebounding. Let's see if it can close above 3.70 today

Posted by Income > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Still got the power

Posted by newbie9893 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

wah....3.70 cleared, heading to 3.80 ...go...go...go

Posted by Kenokaya > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Go go…you got the power,

Posted by FAInvestor > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nvidia climb to historic high now

Posted by wangge > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/10/10/jensen-huang-just-delivered-incredible-news-for-nv/

Posted by chamlo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

2024-10-11

Additional Listing

ESOS - 520,000 shares at 0.560.

Posted by Antifanaticracism > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Omg at 0.56

Posted by MrFox > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

A Bull!
Haha

Posted by chamlo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

ESOS 56 sen sell in open market can gain RM 3.14.

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

INVESTORS, [2024-10-12 12:25 AM]
Take notice of the special key #,
5% GDP growth rate p.a. = always used n quoted by all CINA in high power.

this is the magical # presented by econ prof of famous NUS.
he said, CINA grows 5% p.a. for say 7 yrs, that
increase in GDP quantum per yr thereafter in $ = 100% economy of India per yr.

this is how to charm all angmore n amore bizmen back to CINA with lau.hau.sui.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2024/10/12/china-offers-325bil-in-fiscal-stimulus-for-ailing-economy?utm_medium=socmed&utm_source=TG

customary habit,
mkt is weak n dull running to the day of Budget Msia in each year:

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/729949

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2024/10/13/prime-minister-emphasises-need-for-income-increase-before-gst-implementation?utm_medium=socmed&utm_source=TG

Posted by Antifanaticracism > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

AI have to stay quiet and avoid many any drastic and controversial moves. Many are waiting for opportunity to find faults. After missing becoming PM once, he intends to stay to end of his term

Posted by janetchiam8 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-warning-signs-job-market-indicators-unemployment-2024-10?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=topbar

Posted by janetchiam8 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Robert Kiyosaki Predicts 'Everything Crash': Bitcoin May Drop to $5,000 Amid Market Collapse https://news.bitcoin.com/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-everything-crash-bitcoin-may-drop-to-5000-amid-market-collapse/

Posted by darrenliew > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-cash-is-very-valuable-when-the-future-looks-treacherous-dc00ce7b

YES. US STOCKS ARE AT EXTREME RECORD HIGHS.
ON BALANCE DOWN SIDE RISKS HIGHER.
CAN CORRECT DOWN STILL DESPITE POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS.
Especially with GEOPOLITICAL RISKS GETTING WORSE IN MID EAST N UKRAINE N CHINA SEA TENSIONS

Posted by darrenliew > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://news.sky.com/story/uneasy-calm-wont-last-long-israels-next-move-could-bring-even-bigger-war-13232379

Posted by darrenliew > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://sundayguardianlive.com/top-five/israeli-attack-on-iran-imminent-with-us-coordination

Posted by darrenliew > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://youtu.be/Im7sfl_1rFY?si=URg6oSG8RUOlPF84

Posted by darrenliew > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Massive Cyber Attack On Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Amid Rising Tensions With Israel

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

warren B is the 1st hyper successful Activist Investor in the US mkt.

warren is inspiring. n many talented from ivy biz school copy his model n
r known as billionaire hedgee.
they know how biz works n how it can work better.

in msian term, they r taichow.car.
there r so many of them there n they hv tonnes of followers to help fly up their stocks together more.

we don't hv those in our weak n dull mkt esply running to this Budget Day on this Friday.
next week shd see better days ahead with the Budget risk over.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9sOKxouq/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/03s27CHk/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EYKvPPJ5/

Posted by DevOpsEngineer > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nuclear energy is the future.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/10/15/singapore-economy-grows-41-in-3q-on-manufacturing-rebound

Singapore electricity demand has strong corelation with the GDP growth. The strong 4.1% growth in GDP in Q3 bores well for electricity demand growth in Singapore in July-Sept 2024.

That reaffirms my earlier checks for retails margin in Singapore electricity market in July & August. A 1% additional demand growth translates to over 70MW of additional peak demand for electricity supply.

Posted by PureBULL ... > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Mr Mkt r on vacation.
they shd be back 2 by 2 after the Budget Day.

KLSE's structural problem is caused by this giant culprit.
our KLCI is condemned ever since 20+ yrs ago when our # 1 k fund outsourced rm25 billion n
now shd be > rm50 billion to some 20 mon.k.ey FUN mgrs.
these fun MICRO trade like crazzy weekly under the same trading a/c, to rob retailers.
they killed all the golden goose.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/679265

NB: msian stock mkt is cleverly designed to make FF rich.
it depends on FF to come back to life.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

mkt needs new funds esp FF to continue up. If no fresh funds, most shares will cannot move like what we see last few months...

Posted by DevOpsEngineer > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

YTLPOWER need nuclear energy