Posted by stkoay > 2015-03-11 15:09 | Report Abuse

Thanks Superb99........:))

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1351250

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-11 15:34 | Report Abuse

Dreamhouse

Beginning 2013, Puncak adopt financial result exclude syabas on its consolidated result, instead, Puncak opt to equity account of syabas profit/loss. Why......Puncak hold 70% stake in syabas, which in turn should classified syabas as its subsidiary and all its result should be consolidate in Puncak account less 30% minority interest. The reason is, as explain in last year Puncak account, although Puncak hold 70% stake in syabas but it have not right to fully control syabas such as increase water traffic hike, pipe replacement, capex etc, as any decision making need the approval from state gov which control only 30% stake in syabas, and Fed gov also hold 1 golden share in syabas, in whcih Fed also have right in syabas decision making. Therefore, Puncak being major shareholder, control 70% of syabas but need to obey and seek approval from state which is 30% minority stake.

Failure to secure water traffic hike have resultant syabas incur numerous outstanding debt and receivable, which affect severely in Puncak account. Therefore, after Puncak consult bursa and accounting firm, it opt to de consolidate syabas account, and opt to based on equity account of syabas profit/loss based on its 70% stake (alike account syabas like its associate instead of subsidiary company)

In the latest take offer price, both state and fed gov already agree to absorb all syabas debt, and pay back syabas equity interest for about RM 450m back to Puncak. In addition, State and Fed also absorb all debt for its 100% stake in PNSB (water treatment) and pay Puncak its equity interest in PNSB for RM 1.105 bilion, give rise to total cash compensation for Puncak RM 1.555 bil, clean up all debt in Puncak, turning Puncak into net cash company worth RM 3.85/fully share + other non cash assets/oi and gas assets worth total another RM 1.25. Therefore, Puncak current NTA worth more than RM 5/share is solid and valid account.

Posted by Yoon129 > 2015-03-11 15:52 | Report Abuse

hng33, your analysis really pro~

Posted by Dreamhouse > 2015-03-11 17:53 | Report Abuse

hng33,

Thank you very much, You help my a lot. Next time i go to JB, want to treat u dinner.

Thank you. hng 3

Posted by annchua > 2015-03-11 18:26 | Report Abuse

hi hng33...help me to understand those so-called target price...y is it driven or affected by the deal? i thought the target price should be somewhere near to the NTA?

Posted by davidtslim > 2015-03-11 18:34 | Report Abuse

hng33: I strongly agree with you. I bought a lot of puncak recently as I believe the deal will eventually go through and huge cash after the deal in puncak. I also keep as long term investment in case the deal not go through.

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-11 20:13 | Report Abuse

Yoon129, Dreamhouse, davidtslim

Welcome and thank you

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-11 20:15 | Report Abuse

annchua

As you noticed, all research analyst have downgrade Puncak from buy with target price RM 3.40-4.10, to hold rating with target price RM 2.60-2.90 in response to state gov allowing the deal lapse with Fed gov, which indirectly affect the deal between State and Puncak (Air Selangor have yet to reply to Puncak on the matter yet).

Most analyst only value Puncak based on its water asset value and cash proceed of RM 1.555 bil from the disposal (RM 1.555 bil cash = RM 2.90/fully diluted share). All these analyst seem overlook what in actual the Puncak other assets, including its current exiting cash holding about RM 460m + landbank/investment property worth another RM 260m + oil and gas asset about RM 540m, all together give rise to Puncak NTA > RM 5 on fully diluted share base. Analyst also overlook Puncak oil and gas + construction business division, both together deliver profit RM 29.9m in latest Q4 result on top of its water concession profit deliver EM 99.3m, which if failed to dispose, will keep contribute to Puncak earning .

Therefore, once the deal at risk due to uncertainty over State gov to take over, all analyst immediate downgrade, as to them, cash is more important than water business itself.

Well, to some extent, its true, cash indeed serve better catalyst in short term, shareholder get immediate reward with special dividend, but Puncak future bushiness direction is at risk too, either venture into plantation or expand oil and gas business all come with higher risk nowadays with tumbling in both crude oil and CPO.

Hence, as value investor, I opine that Puncak still worth of investing, with or without the deal, the current share price don't not reflect its fair value.

Posted by annchua > 2015-03-11 20:42 | Report Abuse

thanks hng33 for the great analysis...we wish they could stop the politic blaming and complete the deal...it is benefiting all shareholders and selangor/KL residents...:)

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 00:24 | Report Abuse

Hng33: I'm fully agreed with u that puncak current share price don't reflect its fair value. But...poeple invest because they wan return. But puncak didn't distribute dividend for a long time. If company is making money every year, for sure it has extra money to reward shareholders. Otherwise it keeps so much money for wat? Major shareholders also wan return in money and not the "nice" figures show in the annual report. Can see cannot eat- no point. Puncak as a long term investment is not a good idea as our current world market "yoyo" is not suitable to have a long term investment. Just the timing is wrong for long term investment.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 00:30 | Report Abuse

Puncakniaga future is uncertainty- water abstraction. Whether can be renewable in the future is a big issue. If Selangor dont allow puncak to abstract water from selangor river. Wat will happen? Dont care and continue abstract? Will selangor government sue puncak?


Syabas is half bankruptcy company. Need cash from federal in order to survive. If it lose in the court case, how? How it gonna pay back splash, puncakniaga, abass? Or just declare bankrupt? Bankrupt means 0 value. Puncak will have nothing.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 00:34 | Report Abuse

If syabas wins in the case- But when will this happen? 2016 or 2017......2020? Will selangor government pay back the money or pay in installment or reluctant to pay? Or wait until the next election. If Pkr accidentally wins the majority, wat will happen next to puncak?

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 00:35 | Report Abuse

Do u think it is still a good long term investment?

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 00:37 | Report Abuse

Just my opinion... May be something big will happen in May?

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-12 00:38 | Report Abuse

Roger123,
But puncak didn't distribute dividend for a long time. If company is making money every year, for sure it has extra money to reward shareholders. Otherwise it keeps so much money for wat?
- A company will distribute less dividend to keep extra cash so that they can look for growth opportunity.

Puncak as a long term investment is not a good idea as our current world market "yoyo" is not suitable to have a long term investment. Just the timing is wrong for long term investment.
- Clearly your investment strategy is different with hng33. Long term investment is not about 'time' the market, but to buy a company that create value in the long run.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 01:52 | Report Abuse

Andrew King: Keep extra cash so that they can look for growth opportunity???
Omg... U still apply the theory u learnt from school. I am sure i know better than u about this company. We need relationship in order to know better about the company, annual report just a guide. Try ur theory and apply in CSL

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 02:01 | Report Abuse

Andrew king: U r the one who shot me badly last time. But wat happened at the end, i am more accurate than u. I prevent incur more loss which i bought at 2.98 and make more profit from 2.30 that i bought last few month. If u doubt? Plz check my previous comments. I still remember when i said it will fall to 2.30, hng33 wished me good luck. But i finally managed to load when it touched 2.30. Insider news is more important than anything. Now i just wait the price to drop and wait for the news.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 02:07 | Report Abuse

Andrew king: Smart investor who only make a long term investment for a certain stock when the stock has a very solid fundamental but trade at a discounted price with dividend payout with low risk. Dividend payout and low risk are the KEY WORD. Warren Buffet wont make a long term investment if there is no dividend payout. Don't simply follow LONG TERM INVESTMENT blindly.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 02:11 | Report Abuse

In puncak, ROZALI doesnt concern about the share price, wat he concerns is company can make money and able to pay the EXPENSIVE salary and INCREMENT every year.

Posted by Roger123 > 2015-03-12 02:13 | Report Abuse

Andrew king: Plz study more.....and dont only know to attack, sometimes listen to people advice. Market is efficient, anything will reflect at share price earlier before the news.

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 03:29 | Report Abuse

back down to 1.30 sen soon. those dumbasses in umno had to put Anwar back in Jail. of course Pakatan is going to retaliate. bloody fools. first kidex. now this water BS. you think Selangor is going to pay one sorry sen to Puncak now??? got to be dreaming.

Posted by rlch > 2015-03-12 03:36 | Report Abuse

If Puncak bankrupt, what will happen to EPF investment here? Puncak is providing important service for Selangor, KL and Putrajaya people. I advocate trading buy on Puncak and must dispose when some gain is made. Can complain to IR if we want dividend for our investment as Puncak is making a lot of money although poor in cash flow.

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 03:42 | Report Abuse

puncak is not bankrupt. but that water deal is dead, so is the billions too. therefore no o&g venture. will limp along like a three legged dog.

Posted by jolie2 > 2015-03-12 06:50 | Report Abuse

pkr will make the splash deal a success instead of puncak.
they want to prove at least they make a fair deal on splash and also prove to the people they are not the one sabotage the puncak deal as the poncak deal is not fair to the selangor people.

splash deal will be announced soon.

Continue watch the movie. It have not end it.

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-12 09:20 | Report Abuse

Puncak price will languish at this level for a long long time. For those who need Odd job like
selling Hot Dog or Chicken Rice please make plan now. I am going fishing. Yesterday mantra
"money money" catch NO fish. Need to change mantra--Any suggestion

Posted by samsoongyc > 2015-03-12 09:25 | Report Abuse

Well....another water rationing PR not getting my vote for sure !!!! You cannot play poker with life essential like water .

Posted by rlch > 2015-03-12 09:33 | Report Abuse

Cut more water supply see how long Selangor folks can stand with PR who promise free water. Can TNB provide free electricity?

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-12 09:43 | Report Abuse

Putrajaya and KL will be the first to get hit if "Rich" plan to cut water. Umno is NOT stupid.
All mega pumps are ready at pond site--preparing for water shortage. Only low pressure
for highRise. Don't be fool by what you read in paper. Selangor got MORE rain water than
it need. Every week there are flooding in KL. We didn't plan water usage like Singapore does.

Posted by annchua > 2015-03-12 09:53 | Report Abuse

when will azmin meeting with maximus?

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 09:57 | Report Abuse

@samsoongyc you're in the minority in Selangor. anger will always be directed at UMNO. the hate and blame is strong in that direction. just look at the way Selangor is voting in the elections. you think ppl will every vote for umno at state level here. dreaming. more water cuts = more hate toward the federal govt.

Posted by rlch > 2015-03-12 10:04 | Report Abuse

When BN rule Selangor does Selangor folks face the water cut problem? Is this BN fault?

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-12 10:06 | Report Abuse

Roger 123

Q1: people invest because they wan return. But puncak didn't distribute dividend for a long time.

A: Please study the history in more detail....Puncak did declare consecutive dividend payout in 2005-2010. It have however stop dividend payout for 2011, 2012 but resume back in 2013. In additional, Puncak also declare 2 round of warrant distribution and 1 round of capital repayment. Puncak intend to declare special dividend of at least RM 1/share if disposal of water assets is complete

Q2: If company is making money every year, for sure it has extra money to reward shareholders. Otherwise it keeps so much money for wat? Otherwise it keeps so much money for wat? Major shareholders also wan return in money and not the "nice" figures show in the annual report. Can see cannot eat- no point.

A: Puncak annualized EPS for 2014 record EPS 60.5sen (net profit RM 248m) and NTA: RM 5.02, with its latest Q4 EPS at 19.7sen (net profit RM 81m). Despite Puncak record such high net profit of RM 248m pa, but these profit largely under receivable instead of free cash. These is because syabas unable to make full payment to all water treatment player (PNSB, splash, Abbass), it can only on pro-rated make 40% cash payment to these player and 60% outstanding is due. The inability of syabas to full payment in turn is due to inability to hike water traffic after state gov refuse to grant approval in attempt to force to take over Puncak prematurely, but face numerous court legal case which is still pending.

All these viscous cycle is well aware of by both state and fed gov, After 7year impasse, State finally able to exploit langat 2 to force Fed gov to jointly take over PUncak in exchange for Langat 2 approval. Both gov have agree to sign master agreement to take over Puncak, but need to compensate Puncak for cash RM 1.555 bil (to compensate for PNSB equity interest RM 1.105 bil, compensate syabas for RM 450m). Both gov also at the same time, absorb all outstanding liabilities incur in PNSB and syabas, resultant Puncak turning from debt laden, poor cans flow into debt free and cash rich RM 3.85/fully diluted share.

Therefore, it is not because Puncak no making money, but the profit is now under receivable instead of free cash and both Fed and State gov recognized these receivable is real and valid and willing to payback Puncak under take over offer. Kindly refer to Puncak latest Q4 result under its balance sheet, Puncak circular for detail


Q3: Puncak as a long term investment is not a good idea as our current world market "yoyo" is not suitable to have a long term investment. Just the timing is wrong for long term investment.

A: Its a free market, Nobody can force someone to invest or not invest. Because these is Puncak thread column, therefore, I've right here to share Puncak information. Individual should bear own risk and own reward, depending on personalize risk profile, be short term or long term.

Q4: Puncakniaga future is uncertainty- water abstraction. Whether can be renewable in the future is a big issue. If Selangor dont allow puncak to abstract water from selangor river. Wat will happen? Dont care and continue abstract? Will selangor government sue puncak?

A: As stress here many time, Puncak control 45% total treated water capacity (1,931 million litres per day), three dam and in control total 29 water treatment plant throughout KL, Selangor and Purajaya. It will be silly to even think that state stop Puncak to extract raw water and supply 1,931 million litres per day to almost half of the KL valley population (3.5 million people will be affected). Bear in mind, syabas control 100% distribution pipe or 26,000km pipe to supply treated water to consumer. Before state can even wan stop water supply, it will arrested under inhuman law under WHO provision.

Q5: Syabas is half bankruptcy company. Need cash from federal in order to survive. If it lose in the court case, how? How it gonna pay back splash, puncakniaga, abass? Or just declare bankrupt? Bankrupt means 0 value. Puncak will have nothing

A: If syabas is half bankruptcy...why Air Selangor willing to compensate syabas equity interest for RM 450m and absorb all its debt in the SPA, take over offer !!??

Q6: If syabas wins in the case- But when will this happen? 2016 or 2017......2020? Will selangor government pay back the money or pay in installment or reluctant to pay? Or wait until the next election. If Pkr accidentally wins the majority, wat will happen next to puncak?

A: With the take over offer document and SPA in hand, master agreement is irrevocable, If state insist, Puncak can just submit all these legal document to court to expedite management. In the meantime, since 7 year ago, PKR or PR already use refusal to grant syabas traffic hike as tactic to force syabas bankrup and premature take over for free..but what happen now, State is now willing to take over syabas, pay compensation and absorb all debt

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-12 10:26 | Report Abuse

hng33, well said

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-12 10:31 | Report Abuse

Putrajaya says may take Selangor to court over ‘irrevocable’ water deal

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 — Putrajaya will take Selangor to court if the state government insists on not extending the deadline of their water agreement that had lapsed Monday as the deal is “irrevocable”, a minister said yesterday.

Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili also told local daily The Star that Selangor Mentri Besar Azmin Ali was mistaken when the latter accused the federal government of violating the spirit of the master agreement, signed last September 12, by asking for free land from Selangor.

“If they insist they do not want to extend the master agreement timeline and there is a total collapse, we will then have to seek litigation as the head of agreement (HoA) signed a month before the master agreement is irrevocable,” Ongkili was quoted as saying.

“There is some misconception and we believe Azmin Ali was ill advised on the 45-year land lease issue. The land will go back to the state after the lease period ends, not to the federal government. Once all these issues are clarified, we should be able to conclude everything in a month,” the minister told The Star.

Ongkili also reportedly said there was “still room to talk and clarify”.

Azmin told reporters Tuesday that he is willing to discuss the leasing of state land to Putrajaya as part of the controversial water agreement, but stressed that the deal had not expressly stated that state land would be part of the assets to be given to Putrajaya as part of the water restructuring exercise.

Selangor revoked Monday its controversial water agreement with Putrajaya signed in September last year, following the federal government’s alleged failure to comply with pre-conditions set out by the state government.

Azmin had said the master agreement signed by his predecessor Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim could not be carried out as the federal government had already been granted enough time to adhere to Selangor’s conditions.

The Gombak MP said Putrajaya had violated the original terms of the water agreement by asking Selangor to hand over all land where 26,000km of pipes belonging to state water concessionaires are built across the state.

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-12 10:45 | Report Abuse

Water agreement signed is irrevocable, says Ongkili

EXCLUSIVE: KUALA LUMPUR: The Selangor water deadlock will end up in the courts if both the federal and state governments are unable to come to an agreement over the latest impasse.

For now, Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili wants to convince the state to extend the deadline of the Master Agreement even though it lapsed on Monday.

“It can be activated even tomorrow; it is up to them to extend the timeline,’’ he told The Star in an interview yesterday.

He is scheduled to meet his officers involved in the water restructuring project today to explain issues surrounding the impasse. He hopes his officers will then clarify the matter with their counterparts from the state by the end of this week or early next week

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 10:53 | Report Abuse

whatevery way you look at it, it ain't pretty for Puncak.

Water agreement signed is irrevocable, says Ongkili = Federal govt is starting to Panic. How pathethic. they should have seen this coming

Posted by samsoongyc > 2015-03-12 11:41 | Report Abuse

Iepaklangkawi
My comment is not based on anger it more on solving our water problem . Well...u think we minority is not imp than we will see....

Posted by SinGor > 2015-03-12 11:45 | Report Abuse

Dr Maxi Ongkili graduated in Agricultural Economics is trying to educate me Law. Let me
see the "Master Agreement FIRST" or open for public preview. Then we know whether he
is telling the truth.

Posted by CaoCao > 2015-03-12 12:16 | Report Abuse

Very well said Hng33, i had a feeling that this all have something to do with kps.....

Posted by Andrew King > 2015-03-12 12:50 | Report Abuse

Roger123,
Andrew king: U r the one who shot me badly last time. But wat happened at the end, i am more accurate than u.
> Come on, can you at least have some self reflection on why I challenge your comments in this forum? In case your forget, one of your "insider news" up there is like this --> "If price up, LTH will sell".

Roger123 Andrew king: Smart investor who only make a long term investment for a certain stock when the stock has a very solid fundamental but trade at a discounted price with dividend payout with low risk. Dividend payout and low risk are the KEY WORD. Warren Buffet wont make a long term investment if there is no dividend payout. Don't simply follow LONG TERM INVESTMENT blindly.
> Are you able to name a few very solid fundamental, low risk and good dividend pay out stocks here then? Even your goodself also agreed with hng33 valuation on Puncak, then why would you question people long term investment strategy? Ohhh! Is it the answer lie in one of your comment --> current world market is "yoyo" and timing is wrong?? Mind elaborate more to us what does it mean???

Roger123 Andrew King: Keep extra cash so that they can look for growth opportunity???
Omg... U still apply the theory u learnt from school. I am sure i know better than u about this company. We need relationship in order to know better about the company, annual report just a guide. Try ur theory and apply in CSL
> Awh.... Not satisfied with the answer because it is simple? Sorry ah I don't have so much "insider news" to invest like you.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-12 13:17 | Report Abuse

Alas, we all have stake in puncak, just differ on trading/investing strategies. No point arguing these, just embrace differences n if one among us is harsher on words, don't take too seriously. It could be a bad day when saying it. Bigger enemies are out there, like the big s**t governments, state n federal included.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-12 15:00 | Report Abuse

Solution coming? Or another trap again by damned azmin?

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 15:14 | Report Abuse

@samsoongyc & all who think we have a "water problem". lets look back at the last few months. was there a problem once the papers were signed? Now that Azmin has put the deal on hold - all of a sudden we have water rationing again! don't insult our intelligence lah!

water is and always should be a public good. the infrastucture was put in place using taxpayer dollars. now we want to sell it off to oligarchs and charge ourselves for something we've already paid for years ago! What????

i don't deny that that in the best case Selangor and Federal should work toward a win-win, and planning and management for water use should have been made a strategic priority - some 20 years ago! not dicking around now and reacting/firefighting problems!

with that rant out of the way, all i can say right now is the well of goodwill (if there was any) has been well and truly poisoned with this Anwar Bum Business. as a result, you would be a fool thinking Puncak is going to get a payday (1.00 dividend my foot) courtesy of Selangor...

feel free to disagree and attack me. please...

Posted by jacklintan > 2015-03-12 15:24 | Report Abuse

I agree with you lepaklangkawi. I don't know why people fight for Anwar also. Fight for his injustice and everything. Rakyat can be quite stupid too. What has he done for economy of Malaysia so far? NONE.

Thanks to Hng33. We share the same insights!

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-12 15:25 | Report Abuse

Langkawi, do you live in selangor or langkawi? If water deal in limbo, hope you are in selangor all the while

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 15:26 | Report Abuse

too much lamb mandi and bryani kambing for those Putrajaya mutton-heads at obscene govt lunches has resulted in a clogging of the arteries in the brain. as a result of this severe oxygen depravation, these imbiciles somehow think that throwing Anwar in jail is going to lead to billions flowing freely from Selangor State coffers. What is going on???? Jeeeeez!

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-12 16:01 | Report Abuse

Bought more Puncak at 2.55-2.56

Posted by lepaklangkawi > 2015-03-12 16:15 | Report Abuse

good for you. someone needs to be the sucker as the investment banks and umno cronies begin to unload their shares as the impact of a Azmin premiership begins to slowly sink into thier fat-clogged brains.

Posted by hng33 > 2015-03-12 16:18 | Report Abuse

Azmin ropes in PM’s help solve water deal deadlock

KUALA LUMPUR, March 12 — Datuk Seri Najib Razak will personally meet with Datuk Seri Maximus Ongkili to iron out a solution for the Putrajaya-Selangor water agreement, Azmin Ali said today.

The Selangor mentri besar said he had met the Prime Minister during the sidelines of the Council of Rulers' conference this morning and had spoken to him on the matter.

"I conveyed my concerns to the PM this morning.The Prime Minister gave his assurance he will discuss the issue with Kettha (Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry)," Azmin told reporters when met outside Parliament.

"I have asked the PM to inform the ministry to find an immediate solution. I am sure we can sit down and discuss this," he added.

Azmin said he told Najib that Selangor would not agree to any amendments to the water agreement which was signed on September 12 last year.

On Tuesday, the Selangor mentri besar said he is willing to discuss the leasing of state land to Putrajaya as part of the controversial water agreement, but stressed that the deal had not expressly stated that state land would be part of the assets to be given to Putrajaya as part of the water restructuring exercise.

A day earlier, Selangor revoked the agreement with Putrajaya following the federal government’s alleged failure to comply with pre-conditions set out by the state government.

Azmin had said the master agreement signed by his predecessor Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim could not be carried out as the federal government had already been granted enough time to adhere to Selangor’s conditions.

The Gombak MP said Putrajaya had violated the original terms of the water agreement by asking Selangor to hand over all land where 26,000km of pipes belonging to state water concessionaires are built across the state.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2015-03-12 16:29 | Report Abuse

Hng33, PR words on water deal has 0 value, especially azmin