Able group is a small cap with 264 million ordinary shares issued. I don't know the exact amount of GDV for its coming Mont Kiara project. The land value 28 million was injected into the company through subscription of Right Issues by new controlling shareholders in year 2012. If we take a reasonable amount GDV 500 million, we can work out the potential profits to be generated from this project. It provides an indication on the relationship between profits and EPS.
Scenario: 1. Net Profit margin 25% - PAT 94 million is equivalent to EPS 36 cents 2. Net Profit margin 20% - PAT 75 million is equivalent to EPS 28 cents 3. Net Profit margin 15% - PAT 56 million is equivalent to EPS 21 cents 4. Net Profit margin 10% - PAT 38 million is equivalent to EPS 14 cents
Currently, the share price is traded at 18 cents. Is it Ablegroup overvalued?
Total Equity: 47 million NTA: 18 cents Net Cash: 4 million Ordinary shares: 263,900,000 Warrants: 21,819,950 ( 2012/2017 )
Turnover: 30 Jun 14 - 4.3 million 31 Mar 14 - 2.8 million 31 Dec 13 - 0.9 million 30 Sep 13 - 1.4 million 30 Jun 13 - 1.5 million 31 Mar 13 - 1.4 million
Profit / (loss): 30 Jun 14 - 73k 31 Mar 14 - ( 527k ) 31 Dec 13 - ( 677k ) 30 Sep 13 - ( 137k ) 30 Jun 13 - 22k 31 Mar 13 - ( 244k )
- Its operation returns to black on the back of higher turnover. - 50 million contracts in supplying marble and granite just kick off - Mont' Kiara project to garner an approximate GDV from RM 500 million (conservative).
Over-supply is when there are too many new condos left vacant. Owners bought the unit to be rented out for investment, but there are no tenants to take up the unit. And owners do not live in the unit themselves. Too many empty units = over-supply.
Mont Kiara is a preferred residential address, much like Bangsar, TTDI, Damansara Heights. They belong to the mature township category with excellent amenities and established infrastructure. It is THE location to live in for urbanites in the upper-middle income bracket and above.
Do we see empty units in Mont Kiara? Only for newly completed condos for a couple months until it is taken up by residents. Even if it is empty, it doesn't really matter to developers because units in Mont Kiara are always SOLDOUT. The money is already in the bank for developers.
Dato Allan Lim, former mastermind of Sunrise that made Mont Kiara what it is today. I don't think he will mess up this project. This is his territory afterall!
Leon7. Thanks for your sharing. You know well in property sector. I'm more confident in this penny counter after reading your explanation about the situation of property market. Do you have information about the price of condos in Mont Kiara?
haha...u sohais nak buat itu budak sial bonescythe kaya lagi...kalau u orang beli dan kejar hari ini...dia akan cashout...pasal dia sudah beli 2 minggu lepas...amateur investors...blogger tak boleh percaya...sekarang bonescythe sudah pandu kereta mewah dengan duit kamu...
condo kat mont kiara sudah tengah jadi kediaman tikus la...siapa mau beli...oversupply...harga terlalu mahal takde orang dapat loan...susah nak jual...kalau tak percaya pergi buat research kat propwall dan iproperties
tengok itu queue...bonscythe sudah bersedia untuk jual semua stock dia kepada investor bodoh sekarang...haha....hari ni bonscythe boleh pump vPower Racing kat Audi dia...hahah...
siapa yang sudah beli AbleGrp...kalau tak cepat jual hari ini....besok dia boleh jual isteri dan anak....kereta pun kena jual pakai kapchai.....hahaha...
Hi pls do not act ur r so expert and pump in ur negative comments for whatever reason i do not know..trading ops as i can see so far in still intact as its a norm for volume to disappear after 3 days of heavy trade..intrinsic value on this counter is increasing as there should be a valid reason price build up..
I guarantee u....sekarang...now ppl are watching each other...a lot ppl already trapped at this price.....the moment 1 fella start dumping...u won't be able to stop loss quick enough...u guys better put some thought on it and monitor 24 hours today...better don't even go to toilet...put a plastic bag under the table...I wish u all somoga anda best of luck hari ini....haha...
For those who are interested in how I derive the potential GDV for Able’s land in Mont Kiara:
3 acres X 43,560sf/acre = 130,680sf 130,680sf X Plot Ratio [4:1] = 522,720sf Gross Floor Area 522,720sf X 75% Sellable Area = 392,040sf Net Sellable Area 392,040sf X RM1k psf = RM392m GDV
Plot ratio of 4 is based on DBKL’s standard, although developers could apply for a higher density tolerance as long as the height restriction is adhered to (palace is nearby, so couldn’t be too tall). 75% of Sellable Area is a conservative standard for high-rise condo where 25% of area is allocated to lobby, facilities, garden etc.
RM1k psf is based on the latest selling prices of previous launches in Mont Kiara such as Mah Sing’s Icon Residence, Pavilion Hilltop Residence etc. The average prices of condos in Mont Kiara, old and completed, is around RM800-850psf. RM1k psf is not an issue for a launch end of 2014 or early next year.
RM100m revenue per year. RM25m revenue per quarter.
Considering the previous quarter's revenue is RM7m, a jump to RM25m not-including its marble business, is such an attractive catalyst for Able. A potential 300-400% jump in revenue.
agreed leon7 ablegrp business model and forecast earnings very positive plus capable management will see this ctr move beyond the 50cts threshold in the short term
My friends told me penang farlim like all season 4 block only 3% light on at night and also OHM developer opposite all season their 3 storey terrace and 2 block condo also stay by 2 type of people 1st good brother besides grave yard 2nd indo , Vietnam & Myanmar sister. So you can see alot off empty lio loh
the trend is no longer up.... u must be reading the outdated star publication from a few months ago..wait next year, OPR gonna raise again... i can gurantee u...
i salute you all still enter this counter...this is a trap set by the syndicates...i have been monitoring it...the sharp rise is towards the last 15 minutes before 5pm...this tells you that the purchase is artifically created ...the pattern is similar with cybert where a sharp rise to trap those people to buy then suddenly a big drop....tralala...u are right in your analysis...opr kills the property sector...places like mont kiara is will be the next johor....all stuck..due to oversupply...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
richman
10,110 posts
Posted by richman > 2014-09-05 12:35 | Report Abuse
who wanna run now is crazy have confidence and enjoy a bigger reward