Posted by jacklimeu2 > 2021-08-28 22:58 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kuan1209 > 2021-08-28 23:53 | Report Abuse

Global $18.56 Bn Medical Gloves Market Outlook & Forecast to 2026 with COVID-19 Implication Analysis - ResearchAndMarkets.com

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210820005159/en/Global-18.56-Bn-Medical-Gloves-Market-Outlook-Forecast-to-2026-with-COVID-19-Implication-Analysis---ResearchAndMarkets.com

Posted by Ryan83 > 2021-08-29 00:32 | Report Abuse

Most analysts are predicting Supermax profit after tax RM2billions (2022) and RM1billion (2023)....Their low target price are based on RM1billion PAT in 2023 with ASP drops to just USD25-30......Let see how this pandemic evolves coming few years

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-08-29 01:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-08-29 01:37 | Report Abuse

The above is only my own personal imagination and views and is not a call to buy or sell any shares.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-08-29 01:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by ket4212 > 2021-08-29 07:23 | Report Abuse

morning

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-08-29 08:30 | Report Abuse

I missed the entire bull run last year...very sad BUT this year I made one round buying @ 4.39, selling @ 5.00 & then averaged down once the price started falling below 3.80. Now my average price is below 3.60 after further rounds averaging

Posted by dompeilee > 2021-08-29 08:32 | Report Abuse

Kossan was better for me: Bought @ 8.86 last yr, SOLD @ 9.28, repurchased @ 3.92 avg, SOLD @ 4.17 after 2 dividends, re-entered @ 3.18

Posted by Ryan83 > 2021-08-29 10:10 | Report Abuse

Supermax glove production capacity will overtake Kossan by end of this year another 3-4 months (36 billions pieces per annum)

Posted by ThePowerOfGlove > 2021-08-29 10:33 | Report Abuse

You're one savvy player, dompeilee

Well done

Posted by casanwk > 2021-08-29 12:20 | Report Abuse

Another outbreak of new variant virus called Marbury in west Africa!

Posted by pjseow > 2021-08-29 12:49 | Report Abuse

Consensus between glove MARGMA , Glove makers and IBs that the ASPs of Nitrile gloves will stabilised between US 30 to 35 post pandemic . Let me show you what is the CAGR for PAT for Harta, Kossan and Supermx respectively ASSUMING a hypothetical LINEAR GROWTH from Calendar year 2019 Pre pandemic to Calendar Year 2023 Post Pandemic .

Harta

2019 total PAT = 410 millions

2023 projected PAT = 33 x 63 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.25 = 1.746 billions

Total Growth rate from 2019 to 2023 = 1746/410 = 426 %

CAGR or Compounded Average Growth Rate per year = 44 %

Note :assuming ASP of US 33 ( 100 % Nitrile) , capacity 63 billions, utilization 80 % and net margin of 25 %

KOSSAN

2019 total PAT = 224 millions
2023 projected PAT = 31.7 x 42 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.2 = 895 millions

Total Growth rate from 2019 to 2023 = 895/224 = 399 %

CAGR or Compounded Average growth rate per year = 41 %

Note :assuming ASP of 31.7 ( 90% Nitrile and 10 % Latex) , capacity 42 billions ,utilization of 80 % and net margin of 20 %.

Supermx

2019 total PAT = 105 millions
2023 projected manufacturing PAT = 30.8 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.2 x 0.18
= 894 million
Distribution projected PAT = 894 x 0.5 = 447 millions

2023 Total projected PAT = 894 + 447 = 1341 millions
Total Growth rate from 2019 to 2023 = 1277 %

CAGR or Compound Average Growth Rate per year = 88 %

Note : Assuming ASP of US 30.8 ( 83% Nitrile and 17 % Latexx) ,capacity of 48 billions pa ,utilization of 80 % and net margin of 18 %.

Summary

All the 3 glove glove makers show a double digits annual growth rates of 44 % ,41 % and 88 % for Harta , Kossan and Supermx respectively from 2019 to 2023 assuming a hypothetical Linear growth from 2019 to 2023. Such high growth stocks deserve a much higher PE than the current less than 5 even though the current actual BELL CURVE Growth Rates are even higher than the Hypothetical Linear Growth. Supermx has the highest growth rates among the 3 mainly because of Change of Business model by eliminating middlemen plus more aggressive doubling of capacity from 2019 to 2023. Such growth rates can rival Semiconductors or Technology stocks which the IB gave a much higher PE of between 30 to 60 .
The current actual Bell Curve Growth made additional few billions in the coffer compared with the Hypothetical Linear Growth scenarios . THis is also not accounted for .
Based on the above analysis , the 3 glove stocks are grossly Undervalued .

Posted by matyus > 2021-08-29 13:54 | Report Abuse

Nice analysis @pjseow. May I ask what does 4.2 in the projected PATs of all stocks represent?

Posted by pjseow > 2021-08-29 13:55 | Report Abuse

matyus, 4.2 is the exchange rate between US.dollar and our Ringgit.

Posted by OnTime > 2021-08-29 14:39 | Report Abuse

Can all the research houses be wrong when they give such low price targets to glove stocks, including supermax? These numbers fr pjseow are incredible, much higher than most tech stocks.

Posted by winterwolf > 2021-08-29 15:12 | Report Abuse

So far, market proven them right.
but the prices had nose dived, along with their "songs"
Supermax PE is about 2.2 times. A counter that makes billions, but deserve peanut pricing.
Due to this forecasted drop of ASP back to pre pandemic level
Almost all analysts in town had now convinced by 2023, that will be the ASP for Gloves, whereas scientists, especially virologists all over the world has no idea when the pandemic will end. The touted clarion call on vaccination do not seem to derived the desired outcome and all the medications for treatment are just unproven trial. The fear is, it may get worse. Herein, the Bursa Analysts most with economic or financial degree know best.

Posted by AdCool > 2021-08-29 15:36 | Report Abuse

All with their hidden agenda and manipulation. Else how to make money during such pandemic? It s a fact that ASP would normalize even when it was growing higher from March 2020 - Aug 2020. Back then all the analysts kept giving high TP. Isn't that they knew ASP would normalize in 2023? It isn't rocket science. Just singing different tune to suit their agenda and theme.

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 15:52 | Report Abuse

Convid confirm ENDEMIC no more pandemic
Will coexist with humankind
Vaccine confirm flop
Israel first and highly inoculated in the world with Pfizer vaccines yesterday case all time high with more than 11 k cases against 9.2 million population

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 15:56 | Report Abuse

Supermax capacity will double up to 48 billions in 2022
ASP will never go back to pre pandemic

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 15:59 | Report Abuse

This year 3rd qtr results July August September will prove JPM and local ib analytical is a lie misleading an shiiiit

Posted by OnTime > 2021-08-29 16:00 | Report Abuse

'This Ends The Debate' - Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13x More Effective Than Vaccines At Stopping Delta
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, AUG 28, 2021 - 05:44 AM
Dr. Anthony Fauci and the rest of President Biden's COVID advisors have been proven wrong about "the science" of COVID vaccines yet again. After telling Americans that vaccines offer better protection than natural infection, a new study out of Israel suggests the opposite is true: natural infection offers a much better shield against the delta variant than vaccines...

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-08-29 16:02 | Report Abuse

Once again thank you Mr PJ Seow for your hard works and your computation for the PAT of Supermx for Year 2023. We are very confident that next year will be another profitable year for this counter. Of course many people will play with around with the ASP but one thing will be very sure is that production capacity of Supermx will be scaled up as more and more of its new plants in Malaysis come on stream. Not to mention the new plants in USA & UK. The continued weaknesses of MYR against USD is another factor in favour of the glove stocks.

Posted by iamnotinvestor > 2021-08-29 16:03 | Report Abuse

ASP will normalize only comes 2025, by then will be at least USd 50/kpcs. One can only dream of normalize below USd35/kpcs

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:03 | Report Abuse

Our future seem very bleak like doomsday is happening

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-08-29 16:05 | Report Abuse

Next quarter will be also a very good quarter for Supermx. Cheers.

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:06 | Report Abuse

Beside Banks not many companies can make billions of PAT per quarter especially top 4 glove stocks

Posted by OnTime > 2021-08-29 16:07 | Report Abuse

It's darkest before the dawn. Take solace in the Almighty (Buddha, God, Allah, etc.)

Posted by OnTime > 2021-08-29 16:09 | Report Abuse

One sure way to beat the critics is for Supermax to continue to give generous dividends.

Posted by ket4212 > 2021-08-29 16:10 | Report Abuse

monday 3.5

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:15 | Report Abuse

Most analysts say OBM model will be hardest hit when ASP drop and expected Supermax 4th qtr pat about 500 to 700 millions
But Supermax prove them wrong with a billion PAT
JPM and local ib is telling lies bull-shiiiit

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-08-29 16:24 | Report Abuse

Mr PJ Seow can we request you to do a computation how much larger will the hoard of cash reserve of Supermx at the end of next year assuming Supermx will continue to give very lucrative high dividend payout just like this year.
The shareholders are getting excited.

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:27 | Report Abuse

Another 1-2 years Supermax cash reserve is more than the market capitalization now

Posted by AdCool > 2021-08-29 16:30 | Report Abuse

Sooner or later the analysts would adjust their report and citing FY25 to justify their low TP. Forecasting 4 years in advance from 3 years previously. The analysts can even look into the future 4 years from now. Must give them standing ovation. I only know that analysts usually forecast for around 6 months. Now we are talking about 36 months to 48 months.

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-08-29 16:31 | Report Abuse

Boomberg. Wow. Thank You.
You are very optimistic.
The shareholders can look forward to receive very lucrative dividend payout.

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:45 | Report Abuse

Nobody can forecast the glove futures since Convid will be from pandemic to endemic
Good and bright future ahead for glove stock especially Supermax with double capacity soon
All gloves stocks will be bullish again sooner than you expected

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:47 | Report Abuse

Genting and AirAsia is a good example

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 16:56 | Report Abuse

@FT u r welcome

Posted by OnTime > 2021-08-29 16:59 | Report Abuse

with the cash hoard that they have and will have, perhaps Supermax may branch into new lucrative businesses. This company's future is quite interesting.

Posted by SinGor > 2021-08-29 17:02 | Report Abuse

Genting and AirAsia are at the Bottom ( may taken 5--8 years to recover losses )
Super is sitting at the Very Top--- Cash pile vice ( Price is Hum di dumpty Falling Down )

Posted by oldbeginner > 2021-08-29 18:46 | Report Abuse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1H9HUNY1rI


Marburg virus appeared in Africa

Posted by pjseow > 2021-08-29 19:01 | Report Abuse

FairTalk, I will compute once I have the Analyst briefing from.supermx management . The.last.supermx briefing was quite good that it provided very.detailed ASP numbers in qtrs ahead. I hope this time they can give similar ASP.details moving forward.

--------------------------------------
FairTalk Mr PJ Seow can we request you to do a computation how much larger will the hoard of cash reserve of Supermx at the end of next year assuming Supermx will continue to give very lucrative high dividend payout just like this year.
The shareholders are getting excited.
29/08/2021 4:24 PM

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-08-29 19:13 | Report Abuse

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/new-covid-variant-detected-in-south-africa-most-mutated-variant-so-far-678011

New COVID variant detected in South Africa, most mutated variant so far
The C.1.2 variant first detected in South Africa is more mutated compared to the original virus than any other known variant. A new coronavirus variant, C.1.2, has been detected in South Africa and a number of other countries, with concerns that the variant could be more infectious and evade vaccines,
The study also found that the C.1.2 lineage has a mutation rate of about 41.8 mutations per year, which is nearly two times faster than the current global mutation rate of the other variants. The scientists stated that this short period of increased evolution was also seen with the Alpha, Beta and Gamma variants, suggesting that a single event, followed by a spike in cases, drove faster mutation rates.
More than half of the C.1.2 sequences have 14 mutations, but additional mutations have been noticed in some of the sequences, suggesting that evolution within the lineage is ongoing, according to the study.
The study comes as a doctor in Turkey reported indications that a new coronavirus variant had been detected in the country, with tests detecting mutations that weren't found in the current variants named by the World Health Organization (WHO).
As of last Wednesday, the WHO had identified four Variants of Concern and four Variants of Interest. As of last Thursday, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) had identified five Variants of Concern and six Variants of Interest. A number of other variants have been designated for further monitoring.
------------------------------------------------------------------
They are coming and are alrdy amongst us. C.1.2 is the most mutated variant todate, even more than Delta. Likely to be fully evading all the vaccines. And they are many more new VOC discovered lately by WHO. All with no names yet. This is bad news for the world and recovery stocks.

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 19:46 | Report Abuse

Proven vaccine flop
Israel is good example
First and highest inoculated with Pfizer vaccines in the world but latest cases all time high more than 11 k cases out of 9.2 million population
Confirm ENDEMIC from PANDEMIC
Vaccine break through is real especially Delta variant
ASP won’t go back to pre Pandemic
No expert can predict future of Glove Stock for next five years
Especially JPM and local ib
Genting and AirAsia is a good example

From data China nitrile glove ASP is higher than Malaysia by at least 20% but is coming down fast now same as Malaysia

Posted by Stealth > 2021-08-29 19:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 19:50 | Report Abuse

China latest Glove company Qtr PAT drop 30 to 50 %
Malaysia top four Glove latest Qtr maintain or up especially Harta double

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-08-29 19:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by BoomBerg > 2021-08-29 19:59 | Report Abuse

MMfkr always say bloodbath on Supermax
Qtr pat 500 M just like ib analytical expectations
But Supermax proven those dogs and ib are liar and misleading

Posted by Hazzyy > 2021-08-29 20:02 | Report Abuse

Suggest we should call them rats as dogs are human beings best friends. I have several dogs and it’s bad to say my dogs are like them .

Posted by Stealth > 2021-08-29 20:05 | Report Abuse

Tonee, as posted by 'on time' israel has discovered that natural infection is better than being vaccinated. This is BREAKING NEWs!!!