Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-07 16:10 | Report Abuse

i also added more at 1.15, but at the same time keep some of my bullets for future top-up when it falls further... End Sept results may not look good, so may drop more and pose a good chance to buy again... cheers...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-07 16:11 | Report Abuse

again... the approach is to buy in multiple batches as it is extremely hard to time the bottom

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-07 17:06 | Report Abuse

If you don't mind sharing, how have you been buying the way down? Meaning, at what prices and when?

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-07 17:28 | Report Abuse

If the price can go up by 3 folds or more ( hehe) in says 3 years or 5 years, whether you have bought @1.50 or @1.20, would it really make a lot of difference? I think it is going to be the price that we are going to sell that matters.

Is this a warren buffet type of stock that we can hold for the long long term? It seems that it can keep growing in the next 5 years if we have the right management...as according to the expansion plan as per the recruitment advertisement (LOL, we have to get info from there), the revenue can grow 3-5 folds....with improved profit margin...

Posted by R40s > 2017-09-07 17:39 | Report Abuse

I bought at 1.20 over the past 2 days, but today I spent my bullets on Tomypak, so I didn't buy any Prolexus when it dropped further this afternoon...

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-07 17:52 | Report Abuse

Today done almost 1 million shares, there is a main seller since few days back. I think the main seller would be a spent force soon....

Hopefully, QR4 would not be as bad as what the market anticipated... it could not be good when compared YoY, but would it be good when compared QoQ?
I think it should.....judging by the buying support @1.15 today...

However, I am optimistic of the future prospects.... :)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-07 18:02 | Report Abuse

I too noted the huge selling volume. Indeed, we might be at the end of it. I know yesterday's big player was Amundi, maybe today it was them as well.

Quarter will definitely be worse YoY, but not necessarily be bad enough to warrant further downwards share price movement. But the market is irrational, it is but a folly to predict what the maniac will do.

Posted by R40s > 2017-09-07 18:12 | Report Abuse

When good news are exhausted it's time to sell, when bad news are exhausted it's time to buy...

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-07 18:20 | Report Abuse

Haha! Exactly! That's why the market is said to be inefficient ! There always have buying and selling at irrational prices.... whether it is intelligent or ignorant...

Posted by red_85 > 2017-09-08 04:14 | Report Abuse

Don't rush in..wait first..don't waste ur money here..

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-08 09:13 | Report Abuse

niki, to be frank, i bought from RM1,3x all the way down to now 1.1x... if you asked if I regretted buying at around 1.3x, I would say no... as like i mentioned before, i do not have the God-like prediction to tell me when is the lowest. if i do, i would only buy now or even when it goes lower..
but anyway, my average is around RM1.2x so I am pretty happy with that.

I may not be able to maximize my return (as i am no GOD, and no one can unless you really get lucky), but i will still be glad later when it gives me good return

Posted by GooGooDolls > 2017-09-08 16:02 | Report Abuse

lose stok only sound of fart singing

Posted by RainT > 2017-09-10 13:25 | Report Abuse

Waiting to drop more

Now cannot buy yet

Coming qtr result will be bad also .....expected to drop more

Posted by paktua73 > 2017-09-10 13:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-10 17:51 | Report Abuse

10, 2017 01:25 PM | Report Abuse

Waiting to drop more

Now cannot buy yet

Coming qtr result will be bad also .....expected to drop more


HOW SURE ARE YOU?

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-11 09:45 | Report Abuse

Drop more buy more. Simple as.

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-11 12:43 | Report Abuse

frankly speaking, i do expect the coming quarterly results to be not satisfactory... but the question is, no one can really tell what the results will be until it is released. everything is to do with market sentiments, if many expected it to be worse than what it will be released soon, it may not drop further or even go up... again, I am no GOD, i will continue to buy in batches...

Posted by Dolly_Chai2 > 2017-09-11 12:46 | Report Abuse

it is about expectations vs real data...
if many expected it to be worse and it turns out beating the expectation, then the price now may be at bottom
if many expected it to be better and it turns out worse, then the price may drop further..

unfortunately we do not know what is the "mean/average" earning that most of the ppl are thinking of...

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-11 13:36 | Report Abuse

Results are always going to be baffling. You go and see Tan Chong. I bought it in May 2017 at RM1.82. The recent quarterly result was TERRIBLE, yet the share price did not fall any lower as it was massively priced in. I kinda feel the same will happen with Prolexus. Not to mention, Prolexus Q4 17 results WILL NOT be looked at for the profitability...rather what will be seen is has the cash & cash equivalents been transferred to plant, property and equipment on the balance sheet. This is because having a ratio of more than 0.33X cash/total assets took it out of the shariah compliant list. Getting back to below 0.33X of the ratio should see it re-included on the Shariah list in November. Islamic funds would then be free to buy the stock again and heavily average their holdings down.

To me, the stock market is crazy. Sometimes strong earnings beats see the stock falling. And sometimes a poor showing sees the stock rising. To me I am safe in my knowledge that Prolexus must be near the bottom at these levels. It may certainly fall lower, yes, but it will be an even more enticing bargain in such a situation.

Posted by twentybaggers > 2017-09-12 03:49 | Report Abuse

Why do you guys think that Q4 will be bad? Any reason? I am just curious because i don't think the expansion will effect the accounting earnings much.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 09:15 | Report Abuse

The market has been expecting a weak Q4 since the release of the results of Q3 which was dismal and very disappointing. It was stated in the notes of Q3 that the coming quarter is challenging. The market interpreted the stated " challenging " as a guide to be bad loh...

The share price to date has been hit from all fronts
1) increase in the supply of shares due to completion of the rights issue in 2016
2) loss of the syariah compliant status on 26th May 2017
3) Dismal Q3 results announced on 30th June, 2017
4) Prospects of Challenging business environment for the Q4 17, implying a weak coming financial results.
5) Delay in the completion of the Vietnam plant which is supposed to be completed by late 2017, now may be completed by FY2018, possibly 2Q of calendar year 2018 due to change in design.
6) Lately, sales by fund manager Amundi investing for EPF.

I think all the negative news have been priced in.

Long term prospects are ignored....
1) The impending Vietnam plant will increase the capacity of the apparel manufacturing from the present 14 million pcs to 40 million pcs, almost an increase of 3 folds..There was a change in design and possibly for a much bigger expansion plan than originally planned as the Capex for the plant has been increased from RM22 million to about RM30 million

2) The knitted fabric in Kluang would have a final capacity of 200 million yards. This is actually mind boggling. The revenue from this mill at full capacity would easily exceed RM1billion if the average price of the fabric per yard is more than RM5.

The company only consumes 15.5 million meter for its FY2015 on revenue of about RM350 million.

3) The Fabric Mill would be owned by its 88.9 % subsidiary Trans Pacific Textiles (M) Sdn Bhd with the balance 11.1% owned by a Taiwanese Fabric and apparel manufacturer, Men Chuen Fibre co ltd which was established in 1987 and will provide the technical support. The venture into Fabric manufacturing, going upstream or vertical integration would enable the company to be very competitive. This will help to source more orders for OEM manudacturing from branded manufactures in the future.

Equity participation by Men Chuen would provide not only technical support but a check and balance. Noted that Men Chuen has an option to increase their equity with an additional capital of USD1million which is about another 11-12 % of the paid up capital of RM36 million presently.

Men Chuen Fibre co ltd is a apparel manufacturer for ADIDAS. Would Men Chuen help to source order from Adidas for Prolexus in the future?

Have the market factored in all the future prospects? Market is irrational and can never be efficient.

My 2 SEN of opinion...hehe..

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 09:21 | Report Abuse

On another note, the company is highly likely to regain its Syariah Compliant Status in Nov 17 when it is reviewed in the near future as it was probably non compliant, in the last review, due to more than one third of its asset in cash deposited in non Syariah Compliant Financial Institutes.....

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 09:53 | Report Abuse

According to the arbitrage prospectus for the rights issue, the original capex for the fabric mill was RM55 million. It has now increased to about RM100 million, excluding land costs. The management has hastened the expansion plan and gone for a larger scale..

Don't they have confidence in the business prospects of the company though they put it as " challenging " for the coming quarter....

There are hiccups and weaknesses in the short term. Over the longer term, we have yet to see how they execute and deliver, bearing in mind the company has more than 40 years of experience in apparel manufacturing and their business partner of Trans Pacific Textiles has 30 years experience in apparel and fabric manufacturing..

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 10:31 | Report Abuse

As at the latest report on changes in shareholdings, I estimate Amundi held 1.55million shares at at 6th Sept...

Going to finish if they had also sold on the 7th , 8th and 11th...

Some funds buy and some sell....but so far bears are in control... :(

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 15:03 | Report Abuse

Date .......... Volume Done
7th ............. 980,000
8th ..............412,000
11th.............146,000

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 17:19 | Report Abuse

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Company-Announcement.aspx?id=999255

07.09.17

AMUNDI ( for EPF) sold 763,800
EPF Board bought 300,000

:)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-12 17:42 | Report Abuse

Skliew how many Amundi left holding? I have a feeling their want to sell all. No point keep whatever they have left. Once they bugger off we should be fine.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 17:49 | Report Abuse

Guess Amundi had sold out all the shares invested for EPF. As at end of the day on 7.9.17, estimate bal of shares held :786,000


Date .......... Volume Done... Amundi sold....Estimate Bal...
7th ............. 980,000 ............763,800............786,000
8th ..............412,000
11th.............146,000
12th ............578,900

Likely have sold out at close of the day..

Why they sold ?.... possibly is a Syariah Fund held under Amundi Islamic Malaysia Asset Management....

Just a guess work.... for sharing only.....
Buy/sell at your own risks...

:)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-12 19:08 | Report Abuse

Interesting work. Hopefully they've buggered off for good. Doesn't really make sense to sell at this so called bottom to be honest. As an EPF member, I'm kinda angry they're doing stupid things like this. Buy high, sell low. But as you said they might have to do it due to internal institutional guidelines mandating a selling off of non compliant securities within 4 months, for example. That's a possibility. Another possibility is they find out from the CEO that cash will still be more than 0.33x of total assets at the end of this quarter.

Whatever, that's their loss. Hopefully the selling ceases now that Amundi is likely out of the picture.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-12 19:41 | Report Abuse

Niki, it is the amount of cash, more than 1/3 of the total asset, placed with non-islamic financial institutes that matters.

It is very easy to comply if the management does take care with the placement of the cash pile...:)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-12 20:25 | Report Abuse

Looking at the past one month volume chart, 5/7 highest volume days have Amundi selling to the market. 2/7 remaining days are 8 Sept and 12 Sept, for which substantial shareholding circulars have not been published. Highly likely Amundi was the major player again.

Some analysis:

Lowest of the "7 days" is 22/8 with volume of 371,500. The next highest (i.e. 8th highest trading day) is 152,000. It shows that on days Amundi shows up, volume is MUCH HIGHER than on days Amundi is away. Also look at the one month chart...non Amundi days tend to be green days.

22/8 -- 300,000/371,500
24/8 -- 500,000/620,200
25/8 -- 500,000/528,700
06/9 -- 450,800/512,200
07/9 -- 763,800/979,700

Roughly on all the above days >80% of the daily trade volume is coming JUST FROM AMUNDI!

We can extrapolate for the research skliew has done that on 08/9 and 12/9, Amundi was selling again. If we take that Amundi would be involved in ~80% of the trading on those two days, then 80% * (412,000 + 578,900) = ~793,000. Which again matches the balance outstanding shares held by Amundi per skliew's research.

The data is there for all to see. Look at the buy queue at the end of today...it's got lots of interest. Sell queue barely anybody left now.

I feel tomorrow is when we can finally change course (unless somebody else decide to mess with the party!). Congrats to those who bought between 1.14-1.18. Those who didn't get what you get at open in the morning on the morrow. Prlexus time to move up has come!

PS: Might be wishful thinking, but there might be some truth to it here.

Posted by R40s > 2017-09-12 23:07 | Report Abuse

@nikicheong,
Actually EPF (Amundi) only handles the Shariah funds in EPF, which only affect EPF members who specify they want to invest in the Shariah Compliant funds, so other EPF members don't get affected by the EPF(Amundi) actions.

In fact, from the past few months we can see that while EPF(Amundi) sold down their Prolexus shares, EPF(others) actually continue to accumulate more Prolexus shares.

Posted by red_85 > 2017-09-13 02:53 | Report Abuse

No support seen yet..let's wait

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 08:00 | Report Abuse

Very strong supports were seen at the buying queue yesterday. With Amundi already already sold and out, would expect scanty sellers.... unless new big sellers surface..

Let's see if 1.14 is the bottom from now on.

Fundamentally, the 3 quarters EPS todate is 9.15 sen, and NTA around 1.30 per share...with very exciting prospects ahead, the share price has been unjustly bashed down to such low level..

Market is truly inefficient and irrational....

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 09:35 | Report Abuse

As of this morning buyers queue @1.10 to 1.14 total 1.05 million against sellers queue @1.15-1.19 total slightly more than 100k...

The are big unhurried cautious buyers, fishing for bargains....

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 10:25 | Report Abuse

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1215413818468970&id=1072389909438029

Already delayed.... Once started operation, will see increasing profits quarter to quarter.....will it or won't it? :)

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-13 11:19 | Report Abuse

Skliew, my NTA is at RM1.24. I calculate NTA only based on equity attributable to owners of the parent - non-controlling interest's equity is disregarded (as it should be). Number of shares outstanding at around 174mil after discounting 6mil treasury shares.

Posted by Koh Sien Fook > 2017-09-13 11:31 | Report Abuse

4月QR个个都没看清楚。上一年4月Taxation是收690,今年是出1251。如果这7月是沒给这什多。你们说成绩会如何,股票会高飞到几多?

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 11:38 | Report Abuse

Niki, you are right...I only approximated it ... as it is NOW including 4Q earnings, NTA should be around 1.30, then the EPS would be 12-13 sen for FY17, hopefully, if not better...hehe...

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 11:54 | Report Abuse

Koh, 我们都有看清楚。就是有心人刻意不理税务，一味直指净利减少了很多。。。营业额虽然是少了。。。因为订单减少。。不过都是短期的。。本季度的业绩应该不是很理想，因为公司上个季度报告称本季度具挑战性; 不过应该也不坏。。。短期的业绩不至于影响长期向好亮丽的成长。。。

两间厂房一旦投入生产。。这就是一个难得的长期成长股。。

Posted by tealeaf > 2017-09-13 12:02 | Report Abuse

staying in presidential suite now

Posted by Koh Sien Fook > 2017-09-13 12:22 | Report Abuse

还有aset多了,自然depreciation也多了,就看到profit少了。EPS看到少了很多,所以很多人丟票。你们丢我就收。每年7月的Revenue是最高的, 有可能他的大costomer sales promotion.

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 12:24 | Report Abuse

Many in the suites. Saw many big fund managers. Soon there will be big party and celebration in there.... hehe!

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 12:33 | Report Abuse

Koh, 对的。。大多数，都是短线投机者。。。更何况目前流行一种投资法，就是只看季度报告表现作为买卖的抉择。。不理原由，不看长期前景。。。跟风很强。。。哈

Posted by Koh Sien Fook > 2017-09-13 12:40 | Report Abuse

RSI 30以下了, 股价很抵了,如成绩不好,也不会亏很大。住套房,也不会住很久。因为厂房再FY2017Q4完成拼全面投入运作。FY2018Q1应该看到好成绩了。

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 12:46 | Report Abuse

哈哈! 那是总统套房，是有钱人住的。肯定是发达的。住套房是旅游时暂住的。。旅游完了，就回别墅了。。。
不像一些是住牢房，有的是被判终身监禁的！呵呵呵!

Posted by Koh Sien Fook > 2017-09-13 12:55 | Report Abuse

管理层不说不代表没订单。订单是有的,不然会开多几间厂房。厂房还没好,不敢收订单吧了。好像以前SKPERS厂房没好,推丟合约。

Posted by Skliew > 2017-09-13 15:09 | Report Abuse

一旦产房建好了。。品牌公司程序上会监审。。。然后就会取得订单。。。。公司已经一站式的运作，往上游开发建立织布厂房。。竞争上占了更大优势。。。必定能够争取到更多更大的订单。。

Posted by Ah Kow, Ali dan Muthu > 2017-09-13 15:52 | Report Abuse

Not good future.. overprice..sold all like EPF.

Posted by nikicheong > 2017-09-13 16:36 | Report Abuse

Skliew, it's called pips.